UC has a couple of bad losses. They only have a couple of big wins (SDSU, @NCSt). I think his projection is just fine. I don't think UC is even a top 30 team right now anyway. I'd rather go in with a higher seed and no pressure.

(01-26-2015 04:55 PM)mlb Wrote:  UC has a couple of bad losses. They only have a couple of big wins (SDSU, @NCSt). I think his projection is just fine. I don't think UC is even a top 30 team right now anyway. I'd rather go in with a higher seed and no pressure.

Depending on your definition of "bad" , UC's losses are @Uconn , @Memphis , @ Nebraska 2OT, VCU, Ole Miss (neutral). All teams in the top 100 RPI and with exception of VCU (#4) all away from home. I really dont see a really bad loss . and I would add SMU as a big win.

Anyways, just nit picking . I see UC in the 30-35 range right now so 8-9 seed makes sense.

None of UC's losses reasonably qualify as "bad losses." 4 of the 5 are away from home, the 5th is against the RPI #4 team in the country. Actually when you look at it through kenpom rankings (far better for judging quality) their losses are to #18 (VCU at home), #34 (Ole Miss neutral), #57 (UConn away), #83 (Memphis away), and #85 (Nebraska away in double OT).

They have wins over #21 (SMU), #26 (SD State), #41 (NC State), and #81 (Temple). It's been a solid, but not great year marked by the inconsistency of an inexperienced team. Very happy with where they are right now and where they can get to.

About a month ago, I thought the league was on the fence between 2 bids and 3 for the Dance. Now I think we're solidly in the "3 bids" camp, although 2 or 4 is possible. 4 more likely than 2.

And NCAA + NIT = 6 bids combined.

We must get 4 teams in.

(01-26-2015 11:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  We must get 4 teams in.

I think 4 is a real longshot. I'm no RPI expert, but I would think Tulsa would need to win the regular season title outright, picking up wins over SMU and Cincinnati down the stretch, and UCONN or Temple would have to win the conference tournament.

IMO AAC at large bids will only happen for schools ranked in the RPI top 30. Tulsa has some work to do, they do not have a single RPI top 25 win and only 1 top 50 win. Tulsa has teetered between 43-47 the past 2 weeks, but remaining game vs SMU (2), Temple (1), and Cincinnati (1) should present that opportunity.

Tulsa does have rematches with UCONN and Memphis, but I don't think either will provide much boost to their RPI.

TX

(01-26-2015 10:19 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  About a month ago, I thought the league was on the fence between 2 bids and 3 for the Dance. Now I think we're solidly in the "3 bids" camp, although 2 or 4 is possible. 4 more likely than 2.

And NCAA + NIT = 6 bids combined.

I think 2 NCAA bids is more likely than 4. If Tulsa fails to capitalize on upcoming RPI boosting games vs SMU, Temple, and Cincinnati then they will not get an at large bid. Someone other than SMU or Cincinnati will have to secure the auto-bid in order to get the AAC a 3rd bid if Tulsa falters, or 4 bids if Tulsa capitalizes and raises their RPI into the top 30.

IMO Tulsa has very little room for error as they currently have zero top 50 RPI wins.

Tulsa has a bad loss to Oral Roberts (190 RPI), and was blowout by Oklahoma State, Wichita State, and Oklahoma. Their most glaring loss was to DII SE Oklahoma State, a game that does not count toward their RPI, but may become a factor if the committee is more concerned with their entire body of work, versus what they have done since Jan 1.


TX

(01-26-2015 11:45 PM)texcane1982 Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 11:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  We must get 4 teams in.

I think 4 is a real longshot. I'm no RPI expert, but I would think Tulsa would need to win the regular season title outright, picking up wins over SMU and Cincinnati down the stretch, and UCONN or Temple would have to win the conference tournament.

IMO AAC at large bids will only happen for schools ranked in the RPI top 30. Tulsa has some work to do, they do not have a single RPI top 25 win and only 1 top 50 win. Tulsa has teetered between 43-47 the past 2 weeks, but remaining game vs SMU (2), Temple (1), and Cincinnati (1) should present that opportunity.

Tulsa does have rematches with UCONN and Memphis, but I don't think either will provide much boost to their RPI.

TX

I would say if Temple wakes back up, they may be able to get an at-large bid. They have a signature win over KU by 25 and only have 1 bad loss. Tulsa has positioned itself to get an at-large, avoid losing to any of the bottom 5 in the conference and hold home and we should be in. Our RPI actually got all the way up to 29, but our OOC teams have started sucking and its hurt us.

(01-26-2015 11:45 PM)texcane1982 Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 11:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  We must get 4 teams in.

I think 4 is a real longshot. I'm no RPI expert, but I would think Tulsa would need to win the regular season title outright, picking up wins over SMU and Cincinnati down the stretch, and UCONN or Temple would have to win the conference tournament.

IMO AAC at large bids will only happen for schools ranked in the RPI top 30. Tulsa has some work to do, they do not have a single RPI top 25 win and only 1 top 50 win. Tulsa has teetered between 43-47 the past 2 weeks, but remaining game vs SMU (2), Temple (1), and Cincinnati (1) should present that opportunity.

Tulsa does have rematches with UCONN and Memphis, but I don't think either will provide much boost to their RPI.

TX

I agree that Tulsa has a lot of work to do to be #3, but IF they can do it then 4 bids becomes reasonable because UConn/Memphis/Temple all coming into the AAC tourney desperate to win it to get in would be dangerous. They could all easily steal a bid.

I am also not ruling out UConn running their way to an at large instead of Tulsa. Huge game for them Thursday.

(01-20-2015 10:08 PM)texcane1982 Wrote:  

(01-19-2015 11:02 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(01-19-2015 10:57 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  Wonder if SMU will even be in the Tournament considering they played Frazier in some of this season's games.

Better hope they are in the tournament. They are one of our best chances at getting extra cash for ALL the schools in our league.

seriously? kick ethics to the curb? I would like to think if violations were uncovered before the tourney, said violator would not be allowed to participate.

The other contenders need to step up their game and pull the weight for the AAC.

TX

Just from memory without doing any research; wouldn't declaring SMU ineligible for the tournament this year be a much faster reaction to a potential violation than normal?

Perhaps "seriously, kick ethics to the curb" is a little too strong?

(01-27-2015 09:35 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(01-20-2015 10:08 PM)texcane1982 Wrote:  

(01-19-2015 11:02 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(01-19-2015 10:57 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  Wonder if SMU will even be in the Tournament considering they played Frazier in some of this season's games.

Better hope they are in the tournament. They are one of our best chances at getting extra cash for ALL the schools in our league.

seriously? kick ethics to the curb? I would like to think if violations were uncovered before the tourney, said violator would not be allowed to participate.

The other contenders need to step up their game and pull the weight for the AAC.

TX

Just from memory without doing any research; wouldn't declaring SMU ineligible for the tournament this year be a much faster reaction to a potential violation than normal?

Perhaps "seriously, kick ethics to the curb" is a little too strong?

SMU and the NCAA will not even have their initial meeting until after March. Nothing is going to happen before the season ends.

Agree. If anything they're a threat to miss the 2016 tourney.

(01-27-2015 09:42 AM)shadowman Wrote:  

(01-27-2015 09:35 AM)oldtiger Wrote:  

(01-20-2015 10:08 PM)texcane1982 Wrote:  

(01-19-2015 11:02 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(01-19-2015 10:57 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  Wonder if SMU will even be in the Tournament considering they played Frazier in some of this season's games.

Better hope they are in the tournament. They are one of our best chances at getting extra cash for ALL the schools in our league.

seriously? kick ethics to the curb? I would like to think if violations were uncovered before the tourney, said violator would not be allowed to participate.

The other contenders need to step up their game and pull the weight for the AAC.

TX

Just from memory without doing any research; wouldn't declaring SMU ineligible for the tournament this year be a much faster reaction to a potential violation than normal?

Perhaps "seriously, kick ethics to the curb" is a little too strong?

SMU and the NCAA will not even have their initial meeting until after March. Nothing is going to happen before the season ends.

(01-27-2015 10:15 AM)uccheese Wrote:  Agree. If anything they're a threat to miss the 2016 tourney.

Thank you both.

I didn't see any way that this season would be affected based on what I remember about how the NCAA responds. However, based on the number of posters that didn't see it that way, I was beginning to wonder if I had missed something.

We get three teams maximum in the tourney we might get two

(01-26-2015 12:23 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  1/26 Lunardi Update:

7. SMU
10. Cincinnati
11. Tulsa

That's all folks.

good thing Lunardi doesn't pick the teams. ;-)

(01-27-2015 04:37 PM)Stookey57 Wrote:  We get three teams maximum in the tourney we might get two

Unfortunately, we'll be in the Not Invited Tournament



maybe.

We've sunk so low, we might not even get a bid to that one.

(01-27-2015 05:38 PM)MemphisTiger15 Wrote:  

(01-27-2015 04:37 PM)Stookey57 Wrote:  We get three teams maximum in the tourney we might get two

Unfortunately, we'll be in the Not Invited Tournament



maybe.

We've sunk so low, we might not even get a bid to that one.

There's always the CBI... Though Pastner has a phobia of getting past the second round of anything... So you might not get very far.

Lunardi , ESPN updated 2/2/15

7 SMU
9 Cincinnati
11 Tulsa

First Four out - none
Next 4 out - Temple

Jerry Palm, CBS updated 2/2/15

7 SMU
9 Cincinnati
9 Tulsa
12 Temple (last one in)

He gives Kansas more credit than Lunardi and since Temple beat Kansas they sneak in, Like his rankings better than Lunardi's.

I hope we can get 4 teams in. If not, 3 teams isnt horrible during a down year. Hopefully next year the bottom 5 teams can improve and make this a more respectable conference from top to bottom.