70% FT shooter chance to make all three? .7^3 about 34%. About a wash isn't it, depending upon who you're fouling, if you've the foul to give?

(12-20-2014 06:31 PM)eastisbest Wrote:  70% FT shooter chance to make all three? .7^3 about 34%. About a wash isn't it, depending upon who you're fouling, if you've the foul to give?

Point was she missed all three.

To quote coach Lou Brown from Major League....

"Startin to come together Pepper, startin to come together"

I've been looking at game stories from the weekend and at sites of the schools that played in New Orleans to see if an "All-Shootout" team was chosen. If it was, I haven't seen it mentioned. Maybe they don't do that for these games where the match-ups are predetermined.

(12-20-2014 06:37 PM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  

(12-20-2014 06:31 PM)eastisbest Wrote:  70% FT shooter chance to make all three? .7^3 about 34%. About a wash isn't it, depending upon who you're fouling, if you've the foul to give?

Point was she missed all three.

I wasn't actually referring to the hindsight part, but the "shouldn't do that" part. I wonder what the coaches, coach in that situation. Probabilities called it a wash, but what do practicalities say?

My take (from someone who is definitely NOT a coach but started this discussion): if you're going to foul, player committing the foul better make sure it's done before the other teams's player is in the act of shooting. In a close game when you've got the lead you don't want to stop the clock and put the team at the line, especially for three free throws. Fouling someone taking a 3 is not a good idea. It's like the cliche (which has a lot of truth to it as far as I'm concerned) about not fouling somebody taking a jumper.

At least that's how it seems to me. The foul was meaningless yesterday because of the big lead, but it's not a good thing to do.

I can't think of a situation in which it's a good idea to foul someone taking a three-point shot. For one thing, if the defender is close enough to foul, she should be close enough to apply at least some pressure on the shot, meaning that the chance of a make is probably less than 30%. Also, if a player misses the three-pointer (approximately 70% chance), she gets zero points. The odds of missing all three free throws for a 70% shooter is about 3%, so when you foul the other team is almost certainly going to get at least one point. (That would assume that all three shots are independent. In fact, if you miss the first two the chances of missing the third might be greater than 30%, so the chance of missing all three may be a bit greater than 3%.) And the worst-case scenario is worse if you foul. The shooter might make the shot and get a four-point play, or she may make one or two free throws and then miss the last, in which case her team could get the rebound and score more, for a four- or five-point possession. Worst case if you don't foul is a three-point possession. Also, if you foul one of your players gets an extra foul, and you are that much closer to the bonus or double-bonus. Plus, if the other team is behind and scrambling to catch up, a made free throw on the third gives an opportunity to set up the press well.

I think NOW we can comfortably go with, "don't foul," lol

I seem to recall Scot Reilly winning a game against CMU with a late three that tied the game and a free throw for a four point play. Guy tried to get him before the shot and got there late. I always think coaches should seek the foul when they have spares but they rarely do.

(12-20-2014 08:09 PM)Rocket_Fanatic Wrote:  To quote coach Lou Brown from Major League....

"Startin to come together Pepper, startin to come together"

Lady Rockets now have three good wins against St Bonaventure, Virginia and Southern Illinois all of which have winning records and would appear to be good teams. This is encouraging to me and suggests they have indeed turned a corner. Looking forward to the conference schedule.

(12-22-2014 08:20 AM)northrocket43 Wrote:  

(12-20-2014 08:09 PM)Rocket_Fanatic Wrote:  To quote coach Lou Brown from Major League....

"Startin to come together Pepper, startin to come together"

Lady Rockets now have three good wins against St Bonaventure, Virginia and Southern Illinois all of which have winning records and would appear to be good teams. This is encouraging to me and suggests they have indeed turned a corner. Looking forward to the conference schedule.

They've also beaten a 7-4 Arizona squad from the PAC-12.

Is it odd that I am feeling like the Lady Rockets may be doing a better job at the ol' "greater than the sum of their parts" thing than the men's team is lately? I'm pleasantly surprised at where the ladies are at this point...

(12-22-2014 03:56 PM)bcunn3128 Wrote:  Is it odd that I am feeling like the Lady Rockets may be doing a better job at the ol' "greater than the sum of their parts" thing than the men's team is lately? I'm pleasantly surprised at where the ladies are at this point...

With different players beginning to step up at different times the team is beginning to show some nice upside potential as is also evidenced by some good wins. I am sure they still have a lot to learn yet, not the least of which is how to consistently playing close to their potential. That is hard to do even for an experienced team so no one should be surprised if they have a few off nights mixed in with some good wins. But they can should continue to improve and if they do, they may actually significantly improve on last year's record and actually finish comfortably above .500 this year.

As far as the men's team goes, so long as they are playing their best ball in March everything else with be all right. Last year's team sort of reminded me of some of those few really good teams Stan had that started out like world beaters only to fade in the latter part of the season. Better to peak late than to peak too early.

(12-22-2014 03:04 PM)Terry Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 08:20 AM)northrocket43 Wrote:  

(12-20-2014 08:09 PM)Rocket_Fanatic Wrote:  To quote coach Lou Brown from Major League....

"Startin to come together Pepper, startin to come together"

Lady Rockets now have three good wins against St Bonaventure, Virginia and Southern Illinois all of which have winning records and would appear to be good teams. This is encouraging to me and suggests they have indeed turned a corner. Looking forward to the conference schedule.

They've also beaten a 7-4 Arizona squad from the PAC-12.

I am not so sure about Arizona. Four of their 6 wins are over teams with losing records including one which is 0-10 and another which is 2-8. They were 5-25 last year, dead last in the PAC-12 and were voted for another last place finish during this year's preseason. Also lost their top recruit this year who failed to meet academic requirements. Lets see where they go from here. But, for me, there is no question that Virginia and St Bonaventure have good teams and the Rockets did very well to beat them.

(12-22-2014 05:36 PM)T-Town Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 03:56 PM)bcunn3128 Wrote:  Is it odd that I am feeling like the Lady Rockets may be doing a better job at the ol' "greater than the sum of their parts" thing than the men's team is lately? I'm pleasantly surprised at where the ladies are at this point...

With different players beginning to step up at different times the team is beginning to show some nice upside potential as is also evidenced by some good wins. I am sure they still have a lot to learn yet, not the least of which is how to consistently playing close to their potential. That is hard to do even for an experienced team so no one should be surprised if they have a few off nights mixed in with some good wins. But they can should continue to improve and if they do, they may actually significantly improve on last year's record and actually finish comfortably above .500 this year.

As far as the men's team goes, so long as they are playing their best ball in March everything else with be all right. Last year's team sort of reminded me of some of those few really good teams Stan had that started out like world beaters only to fade in the latter part of the season. Better to peak late than to peak too early.

Problem is you can't just turn on the good play when you want to. They need to start playing better now.

(12-23-2014 08:38 AM)northrocket43 Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 05:36 PM)T-Town Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 03:56 PM)bcunn3128 Wrote:  Is it odd that I am feeling like the Lady Rockets may be doing a better job at the ol' "greater than the sum of their parts" thing than the men's team is lately? I'm pleasantly surprised at where the ladies are at this point...

With different players beginning to step up at different times the team is beginning to show some nice upside potential as is also evidenced by some good wins. I am sure they still have a lot to learn yet, not the least of which is how to consistently playing close to their potential. That is hard to do even for an experienced team so no one should be surprised if they have a few off nights mixed in with some good wins. But they can should continue to improve and if they do, they may actually significantly improve on last year's record and actually finish comfortably above .500 this year.

As far as the men's team goes, so long as they are playing their best ball in March everything else with be all right. Last year's team sort of reminded me of some of those few really good teams Stan had that started out like world beaters only to fade in the latter part of the season. Better to peak late than to peak too early.

Problem is you can't just turn on the good play when you want to. They need to start playing better now.

Agree. but a young team is usually a work-in-progress and it takes time to develop "good habits" such as maintaining focus for 40 minutes every game. The important thing at this stage is to continue to strive to become better and better ----and therefore start seeing results of improvement with time. Building a well oiled machine is a continual process not a instantaneous transformation.