(12-17-2014 03:59 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 10:55 AM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  It would be a lateral move at best, and cost valuable $$$ that none of us can spare.
I think long term, we're better off staying put....if no one else moves. (That's the key.)

Some of you really need to stop fooling yourselves.

If no one leaves...if the Sun Belt stays put, we are far better off as an institution. We may have had a bad year this year, but the numbers show that the two leagues will even out pretty quickly.

What gets the SBC is not some issue of perception or this belief that we are better off moving, its the prisoners dilemma. You don't want to be THE School that turned down a CUSA invite when you know there are 4 guys behind you who would gladly accept the invite, leaving your current league in a far worse predicament.

But acting like we would gain anything more than a shiny new patch and some extra TV Dollars by moving is the foolish part. I don't know what we'll do, we've certainly been very public about the costs of switching leagues, and have mentioned openly we felt WKU and MTSU made mistakes in leaving, but we could just as easy accept an invite because the alternative would be to watch another SBC school leave.

Hopefully CUSA's TV deal isn't enough of an incentive for them to expand, and they start looking to go back to 12 whenever the Big 12 makes its move.

(12-17-2014 04:52 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:26 PM)slycat Wrote:  UTSA has said before they will support TXST joining. Not sure about UNT (their fans are against it but then again they are against everything), Rice is 50/50 and I'm sure UTEP would support it.

Rest assured that the fans on a message board account for approximately 0% of the input used to evaluate who to invite to a given conference.

I remember back in the day when people were telling us we should be nice on this board if we wanted to get invited.

(12-17-2014 08:47 PM)gsu_paintballer Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 04:52 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:26 PM)slycat Wrote:  UTSA has said before they will support TXST joining. Not sure about UNT (their fans are against it but then again they are against everything), Rice is 50/50 and I'm sure UTEP would support it.

Rest assured that the fans on a message board account for approximately 0% of the input used to evaluate who to invite to a given conference.

I remember back in the day when people were telling us we should be nice on this board if we wanted to get invited.

Well yeah, but we knew you'd believe us.

(12-17-2014 08:52 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 08:47 PM)gsu_paintballer Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 04:52 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:26 PM)slycat Wrote:  UTSA has said before they will support TXST joining. Not sure about UNT (their fans are against it but then again they are against everything), Rice is 50/50 and I'm sure UTEP would support it.

Rest assured that the fans on a message board account for approximately 0% of the input used to evaluate who to invite to a given conference.

I remember back in the day when people were telling us we should be nice on this board if we wanted to get invited.

Well yeah, but we knew you'd believe us.

So how'd that work out?

(12-17-2014 05:10 PM)slycat Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 04:56 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:26 PM)slycat Wrote:  UTSA has said before they will support TXST joining. Not sure about UNT (their fans are against it but then again they are against everything), Rice is 50/50 and I'm sure UTEP would support it.

If there is one person I would trust to sway opinion one way or another, it's Lynn Hickey.

Now, the rest of the conference might be against adding another Texas team (and I can't say I'd fault them for that), which I don't think she could overcome.

But if it were the Texas schools on the fence? I'd say she could make it happen. That woman is phenomenal at her job.

Yup.

I wonder how Bailiff would feel about it. He seems against scheduling a home/home but I wonder how he feels about sharing a conference.

I don't know it to be a fact, but I'd like to think that Bailiff would be ok with it, he's got history with TX ST that goes back a long way ......

(12-17-2014 08:07 PM)theothermav Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:26 PM)slycat Wrote:  UTSA has said before they will support TXST joining. Not sure about UNT (their fans are against it but then again they are against everything), Rice is 50/50 and I'm sure UTEP would support it.

A very interesting visualization site linking peer institutions based on various methodologies. Not sure if athletics is a factor:
http://chronicle.com/article/Peers-Interactive-Data/134262/

Thanks for posting, this is pretty interesting.

(12-18-2014 10:21 AM)boroeagle2 Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 08:07 PM)theothermav Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:26 PM)slycat Wrote:  UTSA has said before they will support TXST joining. Not sure about UNT (their fans are against it but then again they are against everything), Rice is 50/50 and I'm sure UTEP would support it.

A very interesting visualization site linking peer institutions based on various methodologies. Not sure if athletics is a factor:
http://chronicle.com/article/Peers-Interactive-Data/134262/

Thanks for posting, this is pretty interesting.

Agreed, that's a really nice graphic.

I hope the UAB decision is months down the road. Marshall is in no position to do anything as of last night. Marshall lost their president to a heart attack.

If UAB is forced to leave I can almost with certainty say that the replacement would come from the western side. No way are MTSU and WKU are going to be split up and thats what would most likely happen if an east side school was added. That or the F_Us would split up with one of them going west.

If CUSA has to add it will most likely come down to Texas State, ULL and Arkansas State.

(12-17-2014 01:40 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  My guess is if there is $14-$17 million on the table CUSA takes one and the Cajuns are the leader with AState plan B if there is concern over adding another large public near Rice and concern from USM over recruiting that can't be overcome (and presidents rarely think deeply about recruiting) with USA not being plan B because a USM worried about the Cajuns is worried about USA.

The idea that ULL "as a large public" is going to take recruits from Rice is ridiculous. They recruit in different academic realms for most recruits. Rice rarely touches a JC, nor a signing day non-qualifier; and no top Texas student is going to pick ULL over Rice, just like no athlete who doesn't want academic pressure is going to pick Rice over ULL. ULL is a far greater annoyance to La Tech's recruiting than Rice's. If Rice objects, and they may, it wouldn't have a thing to do with recruiting.

Mobile and Hattiesburg are less than 100 miles away - yea, there will be an issue there.

(12-16-2014 11:42 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 11:16 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  It's kind of interesting that Lousiana Lafayette was basically a footnote in that article.

You'll notice the article spent more time talking about JMU and Liberty more than any other team?

That was very intentional. Its very clear what ODU prefers...

I know for a fact (as in first-hand) at least one of the top USA AD folks is all about cutting off the phone calls (and yep, there are plenty) from C-USA peeps... especially with UAB out of the picture. Apparently, he not only sees it as a lateral move now - he sees it as a total waste of money as well. Thankfully, his thoughts echo my own. SCREW C-USA.

Oh, and as far as the so-called Southern Miss "block" on USA joining the league, I wouldn't count on that so fast either. There are reasons USA is the youngest team in history to earn a bowl bid and USM hasn't been relevant at ALL lately... and one of those reasons is called "University Of South Alabama football". USM has totally lost its relevance in the Mobile metropolitan area for the kids who wish to stay home and play in front of their friends and family. I believe they are beginning to realize this, too. The only way for Southern Miss to compete with USA for great local recruits is:

A) Be a power in a CLEARLY (?) better conference -

B) Be competitive in the same conference as USA -

A=BZZZZZT
B=BZZZZZT

The impact of USA football on USM (and to a lesser extent Troy) has yet to be fully realized by some folks.

(12-19-2014 02:56 AM)Tiguar Wrote:  The impact of USA football on USM (and to a lesser extent Troy) has yet to be fully realized by some folks.

I did an analysis last year on the effect USA Football has played on USM and Troy recruiting by comparing the number of Mobile/Pensacola/Biloxi area recruits each program had before and after USA football was formed. Troy wasn't hurt nearly as much as I thought, but USM was clearly hurt.

Mobile/Pensacola/Biloxi area recruits for recruiting years 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 (four years before USA played football):
USM - 16
Troy - 6

Mobile/Pensacola/Biloxi area recruits for recruiting years 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 (four years after USA started playing football):
USM - 5
Troy - 3

Obviously my analysis was focused only on the upper Gulf Coast; a full analysis would be quite interesting. And before someone reads more into this than intended, I'm not saying these recruits are going to USA instead of USM (although we've won some head-to-head battles), but I am saying our presence has certainly had an impact. To what extent? You be the judge.

By the way, I've stated for several years now that with USM's diminished presence in Mobile, they need us more than we need them. They need the visibility in Mobile. If they choose to not be in a league with us then that's their prerogative. And no, I'm not advocating for a CUSA spot.

(12-19-2014 02:43 AM)airtroop Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 11:42 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 11:16 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  It's kind of interesting that Lousiana Lafayette was basically a footnote in that article.

You'll notice the article spent more time talking about JMU and Liberty more than any other team?

That was very intentional. Its very clear what ODU prefers...

I know for a fact (as in first-hand) at least one of the top USA AD folks is all about cutting off the phone calls (and yep, there are plenty) from C-USA peeps... especially with UAB out of the picture. Apparently, he not only sees it as a lateral move now - he sees it as a total waste of money as well. Thankfully, his thoughts echo my own. SCREW C-USA.

Oh, and as far as the so-called Southern Miss "block" on USA joining the league, I wouldn't count on that so fast either. There are reasons USA is the youngest team in history to earn a bowl bid and USM hasn't been relevant at ALL lately... and one of those reasons is called "University Of South Alabama football". USM has totally lost its relevance in the Mobile metropolitan area for the kids who wish to stay home and play in front of their friends and family. I believe they are beginning to realize this, too. The only way for Southern Miss to compete with USA for great local recruits is:

A) Be a power in a CLEARLY (?) better conference -

B) Be competitive in the same conference as USA -

A=BZZZZZT
B=BZZZZZT

USMs downfall has ZERO impact on South Alabama starting football. It started with the firing of Jeff Bower and the hiring of Larry Fadora. Fadora did not recruit equally. His 4 recruiting classes on paper looked nice but his recruits were always top heavy on one maybe 2 positions instead of spreading it over several area's.

Couple that with hiring a coach that really didn't want t be there in Ellis Johnson. USM will be back but it still might be 3 years away.

South Alabama just like USM can only take up to 25 students each year and can only sign up to 28 in a year, with some being either mid year signee's or
3 greyshirts.

Can South Alabama take a few that USM would have most likely went to USM 5 years ago, yes but thats not going to kill the USM program.

Most likely, I would say we will add a team in the west...I would say most likely ULL, ASU, or TXST...But I wouldn't look for anything to happen before the UAB decision and the result of the petition of the Big 12 for a waiver to play a CCG with ten teams...I don't see that happening because I think the other four P5 conferences will pitch a fit.

If the Big 12 does add two teams, most likely they come from the AAC on the eastern side as the Big 12 is trending east. They need a bridge between Ames, IA and Morgantown, WV. Cincy and Memphis will do that nicely. It would be make geographical sense for the divisions and keep rivalries in the same division. For instance:

East: WVU, Cincy, Memphis, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State
West: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

UCF makes little sense because I think that they're trying to condense their footprint...

Pretty solid. Then the AAC would be in the market for two teams...I doubt it would be Marshall (I'm not sure if the AAC allows schools to take props)...I would look to the big market CUSA teams

(12-23-2014 09:29 AM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  Most likely, I would say we will add a team in the west...I would say most likely ULL, ASU, or TXST...But I wouldn't look for anything to happen before the UAB decision and the result of the petition of the Big 12 for a waiver to play a CCG with ten teams...I don't see that happening because I think the other four P5 conferences will pitch a fit.

If the Big 12 does add two teams, most likely they come from the AAC on the eastern side as the Big 12 is trending east. They need a bridge between Ames, IA and Morgantown, WV. Cincy and Memphis will do that nicely. It would be make geographical sense for the divisions and keep rivalries in the same division. For instance:

East: WVU, Cincy, Memphis, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State
West: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

UCF makes little sense because I think that they're trying to condense their footprint...

Pretty solid. Then the AAC would be in the market for two teams...I doubt it would be Marshall (I'm not sure if the AAC allows schools to take props)...I would look to the big market CUSA teams

I know people are convinced the Big 12 is going to add, however part of me thinks that the P5 may allow them to host that championship game so FBS doesn't get further watered down by the resulting G5 adds. I also think the Big 12 would rather not have to add Memphis football and its illustrious history to their league.

I think the NCAA will grant the waiver, and everyone ends up happy.

Really??? You think they will grant the waiver?? That's an interesting prospective and you very well could be correct. I was thinking that the other conferences would take issue because they all had to add to get to twelve.. I guess it really wouldn't matter or affect the other P5 conferences now that I think about it...They will just have to be more aggressive with their OOC scheduling.

(12-23-2014 10:25 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  I know people are convinced the Big 12 is going to add, however part of me thinks that the P5 may allow them to host that championship game so FBS doesn't get further watered down by the resulting G5 adds. I also think the Big 12 would rather not have to add Memphis football and its illustrious history to their league.

I think the NCAA will grant the waiver, and everyone ends up happy.

I think it's a toss-up. The other P5 don't want to do that....but they also know that starting up conference realignment again will ultimately result in additional FCS teams moving into FBS...something else they don't want.

(12-23-2014 10:38 AM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(12-23-2014 10:25 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  I know people are convinced the Big 12 is going to add, however part of me thinks that the P5 may allow them to host that championship game so FBS doesn't get further watered down by the resulting G5 adds. I also think the Big 12 would rather not have to add Memphis football and its illustrious history to their league.

I think the NCAA will grant the waiver, and everyone ends up happy.

I think it's a toss-up. The other P5 don't want to do that....but they also know that starting up conference realignment again will ultimately result in additional FCS teams moving into FBS...something else they don't want.

Because the other leagues had to get to twelve to host a title game I think they will approve the non-divisional part but leave the 12 team requirement.

(12-23-2014 10:35 AM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  Really??? You think they will grant the waiver?? That's an interesting prospective and you very well could be correct. I was thinking that the other conferences would take issue because they all had to add to get to twelve.. I guess it really wouldn't matter or affect the other P5 conferences now that I think about it...They will just have to be more aggressive with their OOC scheduling.

Thing is, the ACC also wants a waiver on the 2 division rule, they want to pair their best two teams regardless of division. That would also help the SEC as well.

I kind of wonder if the leagues will do a "you scratch my back, I'lll scratch yours" thing. Big 12 supports the ACC's waiver, if the ACC supports the Big 12's waiver.

Weakening the Big 12 is nice, but the reality is, Texas runs that league, and Texas isn't moving. The Big 12 is probably already the weakest of the P5 leagues, and so unless the major conferences had designs on a P4 and eating the Big 12, it probably would be better for them to let the league get what they want.

Its well known that the P5 are tired of the G5 bringing FCS teams into the fold, and one sure fire way to force more FCS teams in would be forcing the Big 12 to expand.

Its a theory at least. I just cant imagine the Big 12 being overly excited about Memphis.

Either way...what is likely to happen long term (5 to 10 years) is , if the waiver does get approved then the P5 is done and so is the AAC. They add nobody else and start building their case and product to be #6. In that case there will be those in the G5 who were left behind (Rice?) who will not like their dance partners and will eventually band together to form a seventh conference.

If the waiver doesnt get approved you have monetary chaos as B12 and AAC start taking schools. Depending on who is left in the G5 you could still end up with some left behind schools wanting to build another conference or maybe the AAC starts falling apart if they lose key members.

Either way there are going to be some top academic schools stuck in G5 conferences who say, you know what I didnt sign up to be in a conference with Eastern Kentucky