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Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
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Melky Cabrera Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 06:31 AM)Mikeyp Wrote:  
(12-15-2014 07:35 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(12-15-2014 06:59 PM)Mikeyp Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 07:46 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 07:42 PM)Mikeyp Wrote:  Sorry, but you're crazy if you think that the ACC is a better conference than the BIG 12! And I would also say that the BIG 12 is better than the B1G 10 so they are far from #5 in the P5! They are at least #4 if not #3 easily.

Sorry, but I am dumber for having read that.

Right, the Big 12 is so much better than the B1G that Nebraska left the Big 12 for the B1G. The Big 12 exists solely to appease UT and OU. The second those two decide they want to move to the Pac or the B1G, the Big 12 goes the way of the SWC.

Don't let the 0.0000001% chance of ECU ever joining the Big 12 cloud your judgment.

Hey moron just going by facts! Not to even mention the product they put on the field is much better than ACC and BIG 10 their revenue is also better than others. There is no way the BIG 12 is the worst P5 conference. I have no delusions about ECU joining the BIG 12. In fact I have never thought that we had a chance but I guess thats the only argument you have to try and make your silly point.

So, in summary:

I'm trusting the market to tell me the pecking order. The Big 12 has lost schools to the PAC, B1G, and SEC, and failed to lure Louisville among others (Clemson and Florida State, I believe) from the ACC. All the while, their only two, true assets are perpetually rumored to be looking for greener pastures, which would undoubtedly cause the Big 12 to dissolve.

And.. you are going off the product on the (football) field, which is subjective, and varies from year to year, and TV revenue, which is renegotiated at different times, and will also change over time.

I think it's pretty fair to say that the SEC, PAC, and B1G are all head and shoulders above the rest. So, we're really only arguing over the ACC vs. Big 12, in which case I'd ask you this: Which is more likely to exist 10 years from now?

Most of those schools left the BIG 12 because of Texas and the Longhorn Network and because the BIG 12 didn't have the balls to step up to Texas. Just because a conference loses a team doesn't mean that every other conference that doesn't is a better conference. The ACC has also lost teams and is only able to poach from the AAC. Yes Texas has created instability within the BIG 12 in the past that has hurt the conference, which should now be a done deal because they have all signed over their TV revenue to the conference. Either way, your argument that the BIG 12 is the last of the P5 conferences is just flat wrong.

The ACC has lost teamS (as in plural) in expansion? AFAIK Maryland is the only team they've lost.
(This post was last modified: 12-16-2014 07:53 AM by Melky Cabrera.)
12-16-2014 07:52 AM
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FrancisDrake Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-14-2014 01:54 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:56 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:41 AM)jfisher Wrote:  The Dallas Morning News says no one goes......no new teams would actually benefit B-12 financially!!!

You believe that?

2 teams have to bring in at a minimum of $50 million to not dilute. There just arent two teams that do that right now. After 2016 when the Big 10 gets their new TV contract, then the Big 12 has a new position to negotiate from the standpoint that the market has changed... until then, I dont see the Big 12 making a move.

I keep hearing this, but a CG is worth something before you even get into what a certain school is worth. Does anyone know what the ACC or PAC cg game is worth? I would imagine the Big12 CG would be comparable, probably better than the ACC honestly.
12-16-2014 08:36 AM
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upstater1 Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-14-2014 01:54 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:56 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:41 AM)jfisher Wrote:  The Dallas Morning News says no one goes......no new teams would actually benefit B-12 financially!!!

You believe that?

2 teams have to bring in at a minimum of $50 million to not dilute. There just arent two teams that do that right now. After 2016 when the Big 10 gets their new TV contract, then the Big 12 has a new position to negotiate from the standpoint that the market has changed... until then, I dont see the Big 12 making a move.

2015 is a few days away.

2016 is like tomorrow in realignment terms. It takes 2 years just to leave your old conference.

BTW, UConn is worth $40m to the B1G. Not sure what it's worth to the B12.

We did some calculations on known variables regarding UConn's current worth.

For instance, SNY network went on Conn. basic cable when it added UConn tier 3 sports. It charged $2.60+ a month per subscriber.

$2.60 x 1.3m subscribers x 12 months = about $40m / 2 (Fox takes half of BTN revs for production) = $20m.

Add in the TV money (ESPN was offered to pay UConn $13m in the old BE). $13m is a conservative base estimate for UConn's draw to ESPN, based on this comparison.

Then you add advertising revenues for BTN. UConn has 3 coaches' shows on SNY and also pre-and-post game shows. The school makes $25m from licensing, which was double that of any old BE member. There's definitely a few million in adds there for a very wealthy demograpic and for 3.6m in the state.

UConn is worth between $35m and $45m to the B1G.

Worth much less to the B12 obviously, but how much less?
12-16-2014 10:06 AM
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TIGERCITY Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 10:06 AM)upstater1 Wrote:  ...UConn is worth between $35m and $45m to the B1G.

Worth much less to the B12 obviously, but how much less?

How much did you guys 'calculate' you're worth to the ACC?
12-16-2014 10:29 AM
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upstater1 Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 10:29 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  
(12-16-2014 10:06 AM)upstater1 Wrote:  ...UConn is worth between $35m and $45m to the B1G.

Worth much less to the B12 obviously, but how much less?

How much did you guys 'calculate' you're worth to the ACC?

It would be less than B1G because the ACC doesn't have its own network. Also, ESPN has ACC tier 3 rights (it didn't have all the old BE tier 3 rights).

The ACC went after schools on the periphery of the eastern seaboard megalopolis. Look at a map. Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville are outside that huge population density that runs from Fairfax, Va., through Philly/NJ, up through NYC and New England until Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

The B1G meanwhile, having already locked in PSU 2 decades ago, grabbed huge swaths of territory with Maryland and Rutgers. They now own everything up until NYC. The ACC owns central NY, half of western PA, and a 500 yard radius around Cleveland Circle in Boston.

The key to understanding this is cable TV subscriptions. The ACC makes on bad decision after another. Delany is eating Swofford's lunch.

And this explains why the B1G payout is close to doubling the ACCs.
12-16-2014 11:26 AM
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isidnirb Offline
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Post: #106
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 10:06 AM)upstater1 Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 01:54 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:56 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:41 AM)jfisher Wrote:  The Dallas Morning News says no one goes......no new teams would actually benefit B-12 financially!!!

You believe that?

2 teams have to bring in at a minimum of $50 million to not dilute. There just arent two teams that do that right now. After 2016 when the Big 10 gets their new TV contract, then the Big 12 has a new position to negotiate from the standpoint that the market has changed... until then, I dont see the Big 12 making a move.

2015 is a few days away.

2016 is like tomorrow in realignment terms. It takes 2 years just to leave your old conference.

BTW, UConn is worth $40m to the B1G. Not sure what it's worth to the B12.

We did some calculations on known variables regarding UConn's current worth.

For instance, SNY network went on Conn. basic cable when it added UConn tier 3 sports. It charged $2.60+ a month per subscriber.

$2.60 x 1.3m subscribers x 12 months = about $40m / 2 (Fox takes half of BTN revs for production) = $20m.

Add in the TV money (ESPN was offered to pay UConn $13m in the old BE). $13m is a conservative base estimate for UConn's draw to ESPN, based on this comparison.

Then you add advertising revenues for BTN. UConn has 3 coaches' shows on SNY and also pre-and-post game shows. The school makes $25m from licensing, which was double that of any old BE member. There's definitely a few million in adds there for a very wealthy demograpic and for 3.6m in the state.

UConn is worth between $35m and $45m to the B1G.

Worth much less to the B12 obviously, but how much less?

Please tell me that you don't think that their profit falls in line with that. You do understand there are things called expenses? Like huge expenses to operating a media company.
12-16-2014 12:31 PM
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upstater1 Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 12:31 PM)isidnirb Wrote:  
(12-16-2014 10:06 AM)upstater1 Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 01:54 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:56 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:41 AM)jfisher Wrote:  The Dallas Morning News says no one goes......no new teams would actually benefit B-12 financially!!!

You believe that?

2 teams have to bring in at a minimum of $50 million to not dilute. There just arent two teams that do that right now. After 2016 when the Big 10 gets their new TV contract, then the Big 12 has a new position to negotiate from the standpoint that the market has changed... until then, I dont see the Big 12 making a move.

2015 is a few days away.

2016 is like tomorrow in realignment terms. It takes 2 years just to leave your old conference.

BTW, UConn is worth $40m to the B1G. Not sure what it's worth to the B12.

We did some calculations on known variables regarding UConn's current worth.

For instance, SNY network went on Conn. basic cable when it added UConn tier 3 sports. It charged $2.60+ a month per subscriber.

$2.60 x 1.3m subscribers x 12 months = about $40m / 2 (Fox takes half of BTN revs for production) = $20m.

Add in the TV money (ESPN was offered to pay UConn $13m in the old BE). $13m is a conservative base estimate for UConn's draw to ESPN, based on this comparison.

Then you add advertising revenues for BTN. UConn has 3 coaches' shows on SNY and also pre-and-post game shows. The school makes $25m from licensing, which was double that of any old BE member. There's definitely a few million in adds there for a very wealthy demograpic and for 3.6m in the state.

UConn is worth between $35m and $45m to the B1G.

Worth much less to the B12 obviously, but how much less?

Please tell me that you don't think that their profit falls in line with that. You do understand there are things called expenses? Like huge expenses to operating a media company.

I think you missed where I sliced the revenues from the network in half (I divided by 2).

This is the deal right now with BTN. Fox picks up production costs and 50% of all revenues. The B1G gets the other 50% of revenues without production expenses.
12-16-2014 12:38 PM
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HuskyU Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 12:38 PM)upstater1 Wrote:  
(12-16-2014 12:31 PM)isidnirb Wrote:  
(12-16-2014 10:06 AM)upstater1 Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 01:54 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:56 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  You believe that?

2 teams have to bring in at a minimum of $50 million to not dilute. There just arent two teams that do that right now. After 2016 when the Big 10 gets their new TV contract, then the Big 12 has a new position to negotiate from the standpoint that the market has changed... until then, I dont see the Big 12 making a move.

2015 is a few days away.

2016 is like tomorrow in realignment terms. It takes 2 years just to leave your old conference.

BTW, UConn is worth $40m to the B1G. Not sure what it's worth to the B12.

We did some calculations on known variables regarding UConn's current worth.

For instance, SNY network went on Conn. basic cable when it added UConn tier 3 sports. It charged $2.60+ a month per subscriber.

$2.60 x 1.3m subscribers x 12 months = about $40m / 2 (Fox takes half of BTN revs for production) = $20m.

Add in the TV money (ESPN was offered to pay UConn $13m in the old BE). $13m is a conservative base estimate for UConn's draw to ESPN, based on this comparison.

Then you add advertising revenues for BTN. UConn has 3 coaches' shows on SNY and also pre-and-post game shows. The school makes $25m from licensing, which was double that of any old BE member. There's definitely a few million in adds there for a very wealthy demograpic and for 3.6m in the state.

UConn is worth between $35m and $45m to the B1G.

Worth much less to the B12 obviously, but how much less?

Please tell me that you don't think that their profit falls in line with that. You do understand there are things called expenses? Like huge expenses to operating a media company.

I think you missed where I sliced the revenues from the network in half (I divided by 2).

This is the deal right now with BTN. Fox picks up production costs and 50% of all revenues. The B1G gets the other 50% of revenues without production expenses.

And that subscriber charge would be even higher now with UCONN hockey in the Big Ten.
12-16-2014 12:44 PM
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mtmedlin Offline
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Post: #109
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 10:06 AM)upstater1 Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 01:54 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:56 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 11:41 AM)jfisher Wrote:  The Dallas Morning News says no one goes......no new teams would actually benefit B-12 financially!!!

You believe that?

2 teams have to bring in at a minimum of $50 million to not dilute. There just arent two teams that do that right now. After 2016 when the Big 10 gets their new TV contract, then the Big 12 has a new position to negotiate from the standpoint that the market has changed... until then, I dont see the Big 12 making a move.

2015 is a few days away.

2016 is like tomorrow in realignment terms. It takes 2 years just to leave your old conference.

BTW, UConn is worth $40m to the B1G. Not sure what it's worth to the B12.

We did some calculations on known variables regarding UConn's current worth.

For instance, SNY network went on Conn. basic cable when it added UConn tier 3 sports. It charged $2.60+ a month per subscriber.

$2.60 x 1.3m subscribers x 12 months = about $40m / 2 (Fox takes half of BTN revs for production) = $20m.

Add in the TV money (ESPN was offered to pay UConn $13m in the old BE). $13m is a conservative base estimate for UConn's draw to ESPN, based on this comparison.

Then you add advertising revenues for BTN. UConn has 3 coaches' shows on SNY and also pre-and-post game shows. The school makes $25m from licensing, which was double that of any old BE member. There's definitely a few million in adds there for a very wealthy demograpic and for 3.6m in the state.

UConn is worth between $35m and $45m to the B1G.

Worth much less to the B12 obviously, but how much less?

There is sooo much in there that can be attacked and you are really extrapolating value without taking in other factors. I am not in the mood for another pissing match but lets leave it as this. If Uconn was as valuable to the Big 10 as you state, then you would have been added already.

Also, Uconn has good academics but you dont qualify for Big 10 admission since EVERY team was an AAU institution upon acceptance.
12-16-2014 06:23 PM
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upstater1 Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 06:23 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  There is sooo much in there that can be attacked and you are really extrapolating value without taking in other factors. I am not in the mood for another pissing match but lets leave it as this. If Uconn was as valuable to the Big 10 as you state, then you would have been added already.

Also, Uconn has good academics but you dont qualify for Big 10 admission since EVERY team was an AAU institution upon acceptance.

One, you don't have to attack anything; you can just state it simply.
Two, you don't have to give a thorough analysis. If you take issue, then give one example of my poor analysis.
Three, stating facts isn't a pissing match. I was just stating how much the UConn television market already PULLS for SNY, quite apart from any other conference. In other words, this is a done deal. it has already happened.

Your argument about UConn "would have been added already" if it had value just seems like a post hoc fallacy to me. Rutgers wasn't added, until it was. Etc. Suddenly it was worth $40m. There are reasons UConn was out of the ACC that go well beyond market value.

As for the B1G, I never said UConn should be in it. There are lots of reasons why the B1G wouldn't want to add UConn. Not only that, but the B1G already is on track for $40m. It doesn't need UConn to add any value. The B1G can do what it wants.

As for the AAU, I'd say Uconn is well on the road, billions in research are pouring into the school. But regardless, Michigan and Wisconsin were the bigwigs that conspired to kick Nebraska out of the AAU or whole year before NU was added to the B1G. And when questioned about the process of adding NU, the former Pres. of Wisky said the AAU was not discussed. Of course it wasn't. Why would it be? She was in the process of evicting Nebraska from the AAU long before it became a B1G candidate.

Nebraska had bigtime football. The B1G would grab FSU if it could, regardless of lack of AAU.

The only reason I responded at all in this thread was regarding the contention that all AAC schools could not add $$ to conferences looking to expand.

So tell me just in one instance where my post was incorrect.
12-16-2014 10:33 PM
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Cubanbull Offline
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Post: #111
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
11 pages of fans of different schools trying to convince others that they are worthy of Big 12 or other P5 inclusion.

Here is a hint guys it doesn't matter what you or any of us think or post here. We are all in the AAC for the time being so enjoy it
12-16-2014 10:38 PM
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Ramen_Tiger Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Will the Big 12 look to the AAC for expansion?
(12-16-2014 10:38 PM)Cubanbull Wrote:  11 pages of fans of different schools trying to convince others that they are worthy of Big 12 or other P5 inclusion.

Here is a hint guys it doesn't matter what you or any of us think or post here. We are all in the AAC for the time being so enjoy it
#Memphis#Cincy#GTG#Bearcats
12-16-2014 10:57 PM
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