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A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
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tharmon15 Offline
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A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
What is a REALISTIC expectation for the University of Memphis Tigers' basketball program year in and year out? I think some have way too high expectations, but not all. What do all of you all think? For a lot of schools, the wins Josh has gotten each season would be amazing. For the upper tier programs, not so much. So where do we classify ourselves as a program, REALISTICALLY!
11-18-2014 11:57 PM
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paramedicrntiger Offline
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Post: #2
RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
round of 16 or 32 every year with the occasional deep run (elite 8)
11-19-2014 12:11 AM
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bluebacker Away
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
I would say making the NCAA tournament 4 out of 5 years with a sweet 16 or deeper run every 3-4 years.

I'm basing this on the facilities, salaries, and attendance (all Top 20) that the program has.
11-19-2014 10:52 AM
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TigerFan386 Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 10:52 AM)bluebacker Wrote:  I would say making the NCAA tournament 4 out of 5 years with a sweet 16 or deeper run every 3-4 years.

I'm basing this on the facilities, salaries, and attendance (all Top 20) that the program has.

This. We don't have to make a Final Four every four years, but we should make a Sweet Sixteen every four years.
11-19-2014 12:23 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-18-2014 11:57 PM)tharmon15 Wrote:  What is a REALISTIC expectation for the University of Memphis Tigers' basketball program year in and year out? I think some have way too high expectations, but not all. What do all of you all think? For a lot of schools, the wins Josh has gotten each season would be amazing. For the upper tier programs, not so much. So where do we classify ourselves as a program, REALISTICALLY!

A lot of it depends on who's on the team.

The expectation is that every year this team should (at the least) be in play for an NCAA bid. As 3601 has properly noted in past posts, a S16 every 4 or 5 years and a deeper run every 8 or 10 years is where the program is.

However, singular yearly expectations are different from macro expectations.

The past 4 years this team has had at least two McD all-americans and other top 20 recruits, so the expectations for ANY of those years isn't reliant on the macro picture.

Last year Memphis had 2 McD's AA, a Top 20 recruit, a senior Big XII all conference player and a JUCO standout. That team did not meet expectations.

This year, Memphis has two players on the AAC preseason 1st team. That alone, puts them at a better talent level than most teams they face. They have two other players with at least 2 years D1 experience (Johnson and Godfrey) and supposedly some decorated JUCO's ready to take the next step. Add to that immensely talented Nick King along with other 4* recruits Magee, Iverson, Powell and Crawford. The later two having a year to redshirt and familiarize themselves with the players, system and coaches.
11-19-2014 12:39 PM
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Briskbas Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
The long and the short of it is that Pastner should have (at least) made a Sweet Sixteen by now.
11-19-2014 12:50 PM
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Joe1 Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 12:50 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  The long and the short of it is that Pastner should have (at least) made a Sweet Sixteen by now.

yep, and a fair question would be when is he going to make a sweet 16? if it's not this year or next the fans will be dropping off rather quickly.
11-19-2014 01:06 PM
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tigergreen Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 12:23 PM)TigerFan386 Wrote:  
(11-19-2014 10:52 AM)bluebacker Wrote:  I would say making the NCAA tournament 4 out of 5 years with a sweet 16 or deeper run every 3-4 years.

I'm basing this on the facilities, salaries, and attendance (all Top 20) that the program has.

This. We don't have to make a Final Four every four years, but we should make a Sweet Sixteen every four years.

Yep, I think a S16 every 4 years is a reasonable expectation. If we recruit at the level we have been at for the past 8 years, that's not too much to ask.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2014 01:11 PM by tigergreen.)
11-19-2014 01:11 PM
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tharmon15 Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
I am in agreement with all of these responses. For us to think we should compete for a final four every year is preposterous. I think competing for a sweet 16 every other year is more reasonable. Of course we will have down years, but the recruits we are getting, there most definitely should be a sweet 16 by now.
11-19-2014 01:18 PM
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tiger2000 Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 01:18 PM)tharmon15 Wrote:  I am in agreement with all of these responses. For us to think we should compete for a final four every year is preposterous. I think competing for a sweet 16 every other year is more reasonable. Of course we will have down years, but the recruits we are getting, there most definitely should be a sweet 16 by now.

Nobody in their right mind thinks we will compete for a FF every year. I don't recall seeing that on here from even the most delusional of posters.

At this point I'll settle for consistent good solid fundamental D through 2 halves, teams that live up to expectations, and player/team development.

That's all I want at this point.
11-19-2014 01:34 PM
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John44932 Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 01:06 PM)Joe1 Wrote:  
(11-19-2014 12:50 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  The long and the short of it is that Pastner should have (at least) made a Sweet Sixteen by now.

yep, and a fair question would be when is he going to make a sweet 16? if it's not this year or next the fans will be dropping off rather quickly.

I think you are being a little dramatic. They could lose every game this year, and I would still be a fan. Everyone I know that is a Tigers fan is a former student, or related to a former student. It is not like they are going to start rooting for another university. I know there are people out there that just like them, but I would guess the majority have some deeper connection to the school than "they are a cool team."
11-19-2014 01:40 PM
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John44932 Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
For the record, I think the team is doing fine. The idea that they should reach the S16 every 4 years is crazy. Before Coach Cal was here, the last S16 was 1995. Before that was 1985. I think we are all still spoiled by the time he was here. Also, here are the results of his first 5 years:

NIT
NIT
NCAA First round
NCAA Second round
NIT

It is not all doom and gloom you guys. CJP is exceeding expectations. Get off his back already. He is not getting fired.
11-19-2014 01:49 PM
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Joe1 Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 01:49 PM)John44932 Wrote:  For the record, I think the team is doing fine. The idea that they should reach the S16 every 4 years is crazy. Before Coach Cal was here, the last S16 was 1995. Before that was 1985. I think we are all still spoiled by the time he was here. Also, here are the results of his first 5 years:

NIT
NIT
NCAA First round
NCAA Second round
NIT

It is not all doom and gloom you guys. CJP is exceeding expectations. Get off his back already. He is not getting fired.

well ok, maybe we could see if the powers to be would like to give him an extension with a pay raise, maybe put him closer to number five on the list, soundly in the top ten. 04-rock
11-19-2014 01:52 PM
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bluebacker Away
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 01:49 PM)John44932 Wrote:  For the record, I think the team is doing fine. The idea that they should reach the S16 every 4 years is crazy. Before Coach Cal was here, the last S16 was 1995. Before that was 1985. I think we are all still spoiled by the time he was here. Also, here are the results of his first 5 years:

NIT
NIT
NCAA First round
NCAA Second round
NIT

It is not all doom and gloom you guys. CJP is exceeding expectations. Get off his back already. He is not getting fired.

X took over the program when it was in crappy shape.

he fixed Tiger basketball (while unfortunately steam rolling football)

We can now be good at both; it's not an either / or.

I would not say JP is exceeding expectations.
11-19-2014 01:54 PM
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MemphisCanes Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 01:49 PM)John44932 Wrote:  For the record, I think the team is doing fine. The idea that they should reach the S16 every 4 years is crazy. Before Coach Cal was here, the last S16 was 1995. Before that was 1985. I think we are all still spoiled by the time he was here. Also, here are the results of his first 5 years:

NIT
NIT
NCAA First round
NCAA Second round
NIT

It is not all doom and gloom you guys. CJP is exceeding expectations. Get off his back already. He is not getting fired.

I'm literally speechless. Only someone who doesn't watch the basketball games at all could think this.

We're not in the "pre-Calipari" era of Memphis basketball, we're in the "post-Calipari" era. Things are different, the program has progressed. Go look at a list of teams that have made the Sweet 16 twice in the past 8-10 years and tell me that we don't belong on the same level as those teams.
11-19-2014 01:54 PM
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Atlanta Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
Maybe the better question is what is "a realistic expectation of performance for JP to keep his job"?

And I'll offer an opinion on that. JP needs to win 18+ games, no really big wins, go 14-4 at home, maybe go 4-9 on the road, receive an NIT bid. That will keep JP's job THIS YEAR. Next year JP will have to up his game enough to get an NCAA bid & based upon how he recruits, where attendance is, that may or may not be good enough. He will not receive any contract extensions with this 2 yr. performance plus what he has previously done but he will keep his job. If attendance falls substantially & he doesn't recruit at a high level, or he wins less than 18 games (given the relatively weak schedule), he won't make a 3rd yr from this point. But anything much better than the 2 yr performance noted, JP will keep his job for several more years.
11-19-2014 02:38 PM
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Tigermaniac Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
I do understand people saying we shouldn't expect Calapari type runs here consistently. What I don't understand is how people keep going back to the stone ages with what they view and try to impose as reasonable expectations.

As far as Cal's first 5 years.

1. What was Cal's Salary?
2. What was the caliber of recruit that actually stepped foot on campus and played?
3. Where did we play college basketball?
4. What conference were we in and how was the competition compared to Josh's first 5?
5.. What was the fan attendance?
6. Did Cal take over a program that had a combined 137-14 record the last 4 years before he came?
7. What was the overall state of our basketball facilities when Cal got here?
8. How was our national image?
9. What was the overall state of the program?

I don't know if it's age or what but some seem to think our expectations should be based off of the 1950's-2000 and not based off of where we are as a program today. We continue to pour Millions into the program, and continue to improve it overall and we expect the same results as we did when we weren't as good overall?

The argument makes zero sense.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2014 03:20 PM by Tigermaniac.)
11-19-2014 03:17 PM
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HoopDreams Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
Brand new practice facility in the works
NBA arena for home games
Fertile recruiting ground
Top 10 payscale for HC and assistants
Best TV deal in decades (ESPN)

Lunatic fringe fan base says expectations should be bowing out before the second weekend every year.
11-19-2014 03:22 PM
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tigersgrizzfan Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
(11-19-2014 03:22 PM)HoopDreams Wrote:  Brand new practice facility in the works
NBA arena for home games
Fertile recruiting ground
Top 10 payscale for HC and assistants
Best TV deal in decades (ESPN)

Lunatic fringe fan base says expectations should be bowing out before the second weekend every year.
i know right!

as long as paster is the coach they should just pass out participation trophies at the beginning of the year and not even bother.
11-19-2014 03:25 PM
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HoopDreams Offline
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RE: A Realistic Expectation for this Basketball Program Each Year?
Because of what happened in the 70s.

Yeah, you should never, ever raise the bar.
11-19-2014 03:29 PM
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