Interesting point we are the second highest non P5/ND teams behind only Marshall.

(10-28-2014 03:57 PM)TripleA Wrote:  We just disagree then. I prefer to go by what the actual words say on the site we're discussing. You conveniently ignored every word in ESPN's explanation.

AAA, what you said in your intitial post doesn't come close to explaining what this list is. You said:

(10-28-2014 12:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  I think a lot of you missed reading the fine print. This is NOT a typical ranking, based on the season to date, like most regular polls and rankings.

It is a PROJECTION of how the season will END, based on performance to date, PLUS projected results of each remaining game.

We are ranked above ECU and UCF, b/c that ranking has projected both of them will lose a game, and we won't. It's also how Marshall outranks all of us, b/c they are not expected to lose a game, either.

This list does project who will be favored to win remaining games, but it's based on the FPI which ranks teams depending on who would win on a neutral field.

Alabama is favored to win each of their individual games going forward (like we are), yet they are ranked WAY ahead of us. Stanford is ranked 18th, yet is predicted to lose two of their individual games going forward.

What I am telling you, and what ESPN put on their heading for the FPI, are true. This is a metric to project future performance, just like Kenpom and Sagarin.

(10-29-2014 03:39 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(10-28-2014 03:57 PM)TripleA Wrote:  We just disagree then. I prefer to go by what the actual words say on the site we're discussing. You conveniently ignored every word in ESPN's explanation.

AAA, what you said in your intitial post doesn't come close to explaining what this list is. You said:

(10-28-2014 12:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  I think a lot of you missed reading the fine print. This is NOT a typical ranking, based on the season to date, like most regular polls and rankings.

It is a PROJECTION of how the season will END, based on performance to date, PLUS projected results of each remaining game.

We are ranked above ECU and UCF, b/c that ranking has projected both of them will lose a game, and we won't. It's also how Marshall outranks all of us, b/c they are not expected to lose a game, either.

This list does project who will be favored to win remaining games, but it's based on the FPI which ranks teams depending on who would win on a neutral field.

Alabama is favored to win each of their individual games going forward (like we are), yet they are ranked WAY ahead of us. Stanford is ranked 18th, yet is predicted to lose two of their individual games going forward.

What I am telling you, and what ESPN put on their heading for the FPI, are true. This is a metric to project future performance, just like Kenpom and Sagarin.

What ESPN said in its heading is certainly true. What you interpreted it as is just that, your interpretation. You're entitled to it. My point was that what I said is true, b/c I didn't say it, ESPN did, lol.

(10-28-2014 11:06 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-28-2014 10:55 AM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(10-28-2014 10:49 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-28-2014 10:44 AM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(10-28-2014 10:09 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  No proof of that.

In fact, Memphis moved UP from 36 to 32 after beating SMU, the 4th LOWEST rated team in the rankings.

38 point differential...We have 4 99+ rated teams left on the schedule

SMU was 125. Still moved up four.

Still see no indication that they would move down. We'll see what happens after the Tulsa game.

Our 21 point loss to Ole Miss is rated as a better game than their 11 point win at S. Florida...Come on really

ECU played the 106 and 100 ranked team the last two weeks and struggled with both (tied or down in the 4th with both) yet they only moved from 46 to 47.

Somehow you contend Memphis will win games by 20+ points and fall. Again, there is no indication this will bear itself out.

Memphis wins by 20 points drops two spots and rating falls from 9.9 to 9.5...Rated as our second worst game of the year.

Again...it's not the fact Memphis PLAYED a bad team, it was the fact Memphis slogged through the game. That was one of the most deceiving 20 point wins in some time.

(11-01-2014 02:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Again...it's not the fact Memphis PLAYED a bad team, it was the fact Memphis slogged through the game. That was one of the most deceiving 20 point wins in some time.

Ok...If that makes you feel better.

(11-01-2014 02:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Again...it's not the fact Memphis PLAYED a bad team, it was the fact Memphis slogged through the game. That was one of the most deceiving 20 point wins in some time.

Really? We completely dominated them after early in the 2nd quarter. Outscored them 37-6, after trailing 14-3.

(11-01-2014 03:06 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 02:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Again...it's not the fact Memphis PLAYED a bad team, it was the fact Memphis slogged through the game. That was one of the most deceiving 20 point wins in some time.

Ok...If that makes you feel better.

We failed to cover. That should tell you something. Saluki is right.

(11-01-2014 02:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Again...it's not the fact Memphis PLAYED a bad team, it was the fact Memphis slogged through the game. That was one of the most deceiving 20 point wins in some time.

Yes, the computer scored us very low on the "slogged through" index. That pushed our score down quite a bit.

One indicator I use of our team's progress is the amount and intensity of complaints from Tiger fans after a blow out win. I realize the source of the carping may be related to losing money on a bet, but nevertheless it demonstrates increased expectations that are the fruits of success.

A positive mental attitude on a Monday morning. Well done.

(11-03-2014 07:13 AM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 03:06 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 02:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Again...it's not the fact Memphis PLAYED a bad team, it was the fact Memphis slogged through the game. That was one of the most deceiving 20 point wins in some time.

Ok...If that makes you feel better.

We failed to cover. That should tell you something. Saluki is right.

Huh...How is he right...I said if we win by 20 we will drop...He said we wouldn't...We won by 20 and we dropped...Only in your mind can you come up with that conclusion.

(11-03-2014 02:55 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 07:13 AM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 03:06 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 02:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Again...it's not the fact Memphis PLAYED a bad team, it was the fact Memphis slogged through the game. That was one of the most deceiving 20 point wins in some time.

Ok...If that makes you feel better.

We failed to cover. That should tell you something. Saluki is right.

Huh...How is he right...I said if we win by 20 we will drop...He said we wouldn't...We won by 20 and we dropped...Only in your mind can you come up with that conclusion.

You said "beat every opponent by 20". We just beat our worst oppoent remaining, at home, by 20 and dropped what... 4 spots?

What do you think will happen if (*if*) we beat Temple (ranked 60ish) by 20 at their place? We'll shoot way up above our original spot at 32nd.

Winning by 20 @Tulane (112th), USF (99th) and UConn (100th) will most likely keep us higher than 32nd.

(11-03-2014 03:06 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 02:55 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 07:13 AM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 03:06 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(11-01-2014 02:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Again...it's not the fact Memphis PLAYED a bad team, it was the fact Memphis slogged through the game. That was one of the most deceiving 20 point wins in some time.

Ok...If that makes you feel better.

We failed to cover. That should tell you something. Saluki is right.

Huh...How is he right...I said if we win by 20 we will drop...He said we wouldn't...We won by 20 and we dropped...Only in your mind can you come up with that conclusion.

You said "beat every opponent by 20". We just beat our worst oppoent remaining, at home, by 20 and dropped what... 4 spots?

What do you think will happen if (*if*) we beat Temple (ranked 60ish) by 20 at their place? We'll shoot way up above our original spot at 32nd.

Winning by 20 @Tulane (112th), USF (99th) and UConn (100th) will most likely keep us higher than 32nd.

We shall see...But by my view it is unlikely as Marshall has beaten every opponent by ~30 and with around the same SOS that we have remaining and they are ranked 30th. So you are saying that if we perform 10 points worse than Marshall with close to the same strength of schedule that we will be graded as high as Marshall.

But honesty this discussion is useless because it is unlikely that the remainder of the weeks will fall as nicely as this one did for me (Exactly a 20 point win with the numbers strengthening my point)...

(11-03-2014 03:53 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  We shall see...But by my view it is unlikely as Marshall has beaten every opponent by ~30 and with around the same SOS that we have remaining and they are ranked 30th. So you are saying that if we perform 10 points worse than Marshall with close to the same strength of schedule that we will be graded as high as Marshall.

But honesty this discussion is useless because it is unlikely that the remainder of the weeks will fall as nicely as this one did for me (Exactly a 20 point win with the numbers strengthening my point)...

Marshall's remaining SOS really doesn't have much to do with us.

The FPI rankings don't tell you what the SOS of the games you've played is. They've been blowing teams out, but also have a schedule that most top 25 could go undefeated against (this is the "Strength of Record" metric). Yet Marshall has played this terrible schedule all season and still manages to be 30th.

(11-03-2014 04:11 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 03:53 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  We shall see...But by my view it is unlikely as Marshall has beaten every opponent by ~30 and with around the same SOS that we have remaining and they are ranked 30th. So you are saying that if we perform 10 points worse than Marshall with close to the same strength of schedule that we will be graded as high as Marshall.

But honesty this discussion is useless because it is unlikely that the remainder of the weeks will fall as nicely as this one did for me (Exactly a 20 point win with the numbers strengthening my point)...

Marshall's remaining SOS really doesn't have much to do with us.

The FPI rankings don't tell you what the SOS of the games you've played is. They've been blowing teams out, but also have a schedule that most top 25 could go undefeated against (this is the "Strength of Record" metric). Yet Marshall has played this terrible schedule all season and still manages to be 30th.

Their COMPLETED schedule grades out to the same as OUR remaining schedule...

You can look at the ratings of the teams they have played and compare them to the teams we have left and logically conclude that they are similar. So what you said proves my point they have been winning by ~30 points per game with an average opponent around 105ish and we have average opponents left around 99ish...So do you think that performing 10 points worse is going to let us just about catch Marshall in these rankings.

Marshall is 30 we were ranked 32 when we started this discussion.

(11-03-2014 04:23 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 04:11 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 03:53 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  We shall see...But by my view it is unlikely as Marshall has beaten every opponent by ~30 and with around the same SOS that we have remaining and they are ranked 30th. So you are saying that if we perform 10 points worse than Marshall with close to the same strength of schedule that we will be graded as high as Marshall.

But honesty this discussion is useless because it is unlikely that the remainder of the weeks will fall as nicely as this one did for me (Exactly a 20 point win with the numbers strengthening my point)...

Marshall's remaining SOS really doesn't have much to do with us.

The FPI rankings don't tell you what the SOS of the games you've played is. They've been blowing teams out, but also have a schedule that most top 25 could go undefeated against (this is the "Strength of Record" metric). Yet Marshall has played this terrible schedule all season and still manages to be 30th.

Their COMPLETED schedule grades out to the same as OUR remaining schedule...

You can look at the ratings of the teams they have played and compare them to the teams we have left and logically conclude that they are similar. So what you said proves my point they have been winning by ~30 points per game with an average opponent around 90ish and we have average opponents left around 90ish...So do you think that performing 10 points worse is going to let us just about catch Marshall in these rankings.

Marshall is 30 we were ranked 32 when we started this discussion.

Why do we need to catch Marshall?

Where are you seeing their "completed" schedule rank? All I see is their remaining schedule rank. They haven't played anyone nearly as good asTemple, so our remaining schedule doesn't really even look like theirs to the eye test.

But yes, if we beat the remaining teams on our schedule by 20, we will probably move up ahead of Marshall, assuming they're not beating their remaining opponents by 40 or something. Of course, we could both move up and this conversation is moot. I'm not really sure what Marshall has to do with any of this.

(11-03-2014 04:30 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 04:23 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 04:11 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 03:53 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  We shall see...But by my view it is unlikely as Marshall has beaten every opponent by ~30 and with around the same SOS that we have remaining and they are ranked 30th. So you are saying that if we perform 10 points worse than Marshall with close to the same strength of schedule that we will be graded as high as Marshall.

But honesty this discussion is useless because it is unlikely that the remainder of the weeks will fall as nicely as this one did for me (Exactly a 20 point win with the numbers strengthening my point)...

Marshall's remaining SOS really doesn't have much to do with us.

The FPI rankings don't tell you what the SOS of the games you've played is. They've been blowing teams out, but also have a schedule that most top 25 could go undefeated against (this is the "Strength of Record" metric). Yet Marshall has played this terrible schedule all season and still manages to be 30th.

Their COMPLETED schedule grades out to the same as OUR remaining schedule...

You can look at the ratings of the teams they have played and compare them to the teams we have left and logically conclude that they are similar. So what you said proves my point they have been winning by ~30 points per game with an average opponent around 90ish and we have average opponents left around 90ish...So do you think that performing 10 points worse is going to let us just about catch Marshall in these rankings.

Marshall is 30 we were ranked 32 when we started this discussion.

Why do we need to catch Marshall?

Where are you seeing their "completed" schedule rank? All I see is their remaining schedule rank. They haven't played anyone nearly as good asTemple, so our remaining schedule doesn't really even look like theirs to the eye test.

But yes, if we beat the remaining teams on our schedule by 20, we will probably move up ahead of Marshall, assuming they're not beating their remaining opponents by 40 or something. Of course, we could both move up and this conversation is moot. I'm not really sure what Marshall has to do with any of this.

No my point is our remaining schedule is comparable to their existing schedule...

So if we go undefeated against a similar schedule but perform worse than we will not fair as well as Marshall has to date in these rankings...

Lets break it down...Our average game score to date is 64.2

Lets guess at what our ratings will be if we win out by 20 points

@Temple guess 85 - I say this is generous as we got a 91 for beating a better team by 27
@ Tulane I say 66 Beat SMU on the road by 38 so a guess is the extra points will make up for the ratings difference...GTech scored a 56 beating them by 17 @ Tulane
South Florida 55 for better rating than Tulsa game which was 50
UConn 55 for better rating than Tulsa which was a 50

Just guesses...But hey how can you put this much faith in a rankings system that a 20 point win is graded as a worst game than a 21 point loss. Even with the game ratings I posted our average game rating will be worse than what he have already done this year.

Now granted the guesses I made where based on existing games...If we were to go up 20 in the first 5 minutes of every game and maintain that lead for the duration I am sure our grades will be higher.

I see. Our wins over UConn and USF would be consdierably better than 55's if we won by 20. Cincy beat USF by 17 in Cincy and that was a "67" game for them. I assume a 20 point win over them at home would put us up in the 70s.

There is a big gap in the FPI totals between UConn/USF around 100 and Tulsa at 114.

(11-03-2014 07:47 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  One indicator I use of our team's progress is the amount and intensity of complaints from Tiger fans after a blow out win. I realize the source of the carping may be related to losing money on a bet, but nevertheless it demonstrates increased expectations that are the fruits of success.

o no... that's sorta true. Like the win last Friday was followed by a fight over attendance. People couldn't scream about losing, but they still had to scream.