I'll work on the proof later today, but I'm pretty sure that ODU is mathematically eliminated from "winning the division". Even if they win out and Marshall and MTSU lose out, the best case scenario for ODU would be a train wreck at 4-4, but since Marshall is already 4-0 against all possible teams 4-4 trainwreck teams with only UAB to play amount possible 4-4 trainwreck teams and ODU is already 0-2 against already 4 win teams (Marshall and MTSU), I see no path that they can win a tiebreaker. (Did not include WKU in the best case trainwreck scenario because ODU lost to them, so having them in the trainwreck does not improve their case because it then gives them 3 losses in the tie).
North Texas is a La Tech win or another Mean Green loss from being outright eliminated.
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2014 08:33 AM by CoachMaclid.)
(10-26-2014 08:31 AM)CoachMaclid Wrote: I'll work on the proof later today, but I'm pretty sure that ODU is mathematically eliminated from "winning the division". Even if they win out and Marshall and MTSU lose out, the best case scenario for ODU would be a train wreck at 4-4, but since Marshall is already 4-0 against all possible teams 4-4 trainwreck teams with only UAB to play amount possible 4-4 trainwreck teams and ODU is already 0-2 against already 4 win teams (Marshall and MTSU), I see no path that they can win a tiebreaker. (Did not include WKU in the best case trainwreck scenario because ODU lost to them, so having them in the trainwreck does not improve their case because it then gives them 3 losses in the tie).
North Texas is a La Tech win or another Mean Green loss from being outright eliminated.
I think after yesterday, we are beyond eliminated from reaching championship or getting a bowl slot. We win the last 4 and that's 6-6 but that won't be good enough. I think FAU went 6-6 last yr to close out and didn't get selected.
If UTSA wins out...
... And La Tech loses out
... And Rice loses to Marshall and UTSA
... And UTEP loses twice, say to the East schools (WKU and MTSU)
... And Southern Miss loses one more conference game (Marshall?)
... Then UTSA would win the West!
Technically possible vs. realistic are different conversations, though.
Think the West is La. Tech's to lose. Rice still has to play Marshall, so La Tech winning its next 3 games (no small feat, but UAB should probably be the only real test for the Bulldogs) coupled with a Rice loss to Marshall will give the Bulldogs the West. That ODU loss is going to continue to haunt Rice.
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2014 09:23 AM by westsidewolf1989.)
(10-26-2014 09:22 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote: Think the West is La. Tech's to lose. Rice still has to play Marshall, so La Tech winning its next 3 games (no small feat, but UAB should probably be the only real test for the Bulldogs) coupled with a Rice loss to Marshall will give the Bulldogs the West. That ODU loss is going to continue to haunt Rice.
Tech is a fragile team. We lost to NW State when we didn't play well. Every game on our schedule could have gone either way (except OU and Auburn). Every game is going to be tough. I do have faith in our defense though. Offense is very inconsistent. Special Teams is pretty bad. Makes for a fun season!
For Rice, will come to Marshall game. Just like last year before the championship game, nobody will give Owls a shot.
Game will be decided on whether Owls can stop deep ball and big plays on return game. That is true for most teams but even more so for Rice. Last year they stopped the big plays and beat Marshall soundly but then when facing other good QB's (Prescott, Golson, K. Hill, etc.), Rice exposed badly. Safeties and coverage teams have been suspect all season.
Rice has given up 210 points this year. 173 of them involved a play on a drive greater than 20 yards. The other 37 points almost were either due to a short fields or plays between 15-20 yards. No points given up this year on 3 yards/cloud of dust marching down the field. Doc just needs to have Cato keep throwing it deep.
Bottom line is if Rice can force Marshall to earn everything, will be in good shape to upset Herd again. If not, will be a long day.
(10-26-2014 08:31 AM)CoachMaclid Wrote: I'll work on the proof later today, but I'm pretty sure that ODU is mathematically eliminated from "winning the division". Even if they win out and Marshall and MTSU lose out, the best case scenario for ODU would be a train wreck at 4-4, but since Marshall is already 4-0 against all possible teams 4-4 trainwreck teams with only UAB to play amount possible 4-4 trainwreck teams and ODU is already 0-2 against already 4 win teams (Marshall and MTSU), I see no path that they can win a tiebreaker. (Did not include WKU in the best case trainwreck scenario because ODU lost to them, so having them in the trainwreck does not improve their case because it then gives them 3 losses in the tie).
North Texas is a La Tech win or another Mean Green loss from being outright eliminated.
It's probably technically possible, but ODU needs at least a 5-way tie in the East. Since they lost to Middle and Marshall and can only tie them, they couldn't even win a 4-way tie because they'd be at best 1-2 among the tied teams and somebody would have to be better.
(10-26-2014 09:46 AM)TeKERaider Wrote: I think WKU blows tech out.
* I just threw up in my mouth.
The outcome of this game will be determined by how good a job Manny Diaz does. If our DC can come up with a scheme that enables us to pressure the QB, we'll win. If we can't do that, it'll be a long day for us.
(10-26-2014 10:12 AM)owl40 Wrote: For Rice, will come to Marshall game. Just like last year before the championship game, nobody will give Owls a shot.
Game will be decided on whether Owls can stop deep ball and big plays on return game. That is true for most teams but even more so for Rice. Last year they stopped the big plays and beat Marshall soundly but then when facing other good QB's (Prescott, Golson, K. Hill, etc.), Rice exposed badly. Safeties and coverage teams have been suspect all season.
Rice has given up 210 points this year. 173 of them involved a play on a drive greater than 20 yards. The other 37 points almost were either due to a short fields or plays between 15-20 yards. No points given up this year on 3 yards/cloud of dust marching down the field. Doc just needs to have Cato keep throwing it deep.
Bottom line is if Rice can force Marshall to earn everything, will be in good shape to upset Herd again. If not, will be a long day.
The Rice game scares me.. The Herd is undefeated against teams from Texas in Huntington.. That streak has to end sometime.. The law of averages and all.. I just hope it doesn't happen this year lol
(10-26-2014 10:12 AM)owl40 Wrote: Doc just needs to have Cato keep throwing it deep.
That shouldn't be a huge problem. Seems to be the only type of pass Cato likes to throw anymore...
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True. He has hit them all but the last couple. If he doesnt snap out of 2012 cato, then we are in trouble. Good news is davonte allen is back and thats a huge boost to the outside
RE: C-USA Championship Race (10/26/2014) 
