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PJ's Road Warriors vs Franks's Bobcats
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MileHighBronco Offline
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Post: #1
PJ's Road Warriors vs Franks's Bobcats
Ohio is 4 - 4, 2 - 2 MAC, 3-1 at home, 1 - 3 on the road
WMU is 4 - 3, 2 - 1 MAC, 1 - 1 at home, 3 - 2 on the road

Common opponents in bold

OHIO

@KSU W 17 - 14
@Kentucky L 20 - 3
@Marshall L 44 - 14
Idaho W 36 - 24
E. Illinois W 34 - 19
@C. Michigan L 28 - 10
BGSU L 31 - 13
Akron W 23 - 20

WMU

@Purdue L 43 - 34
@Idaho W 45 - 33
Murray State W 45 - 14
@Virginia Tech L 35 - 17
Toledo L 20 - 19 OT
@Ball State W 42 - 38
@BGSU W 26 - 14


How do the teams stack up statistically? These are stats for ALL games, not just MAC.

http://www.mac-sports.com/custompages/st...nfldrs.htm

SCORING OFFENSE

4. WMU 32.6/gm
11. Ohio 18.8/gm

RUSHING OFFENSE

3. WMU 188.1 yd/gm 18 TD
6. Ohio 158.2 yd/gm 9 TD

PASSING OFFENSE

7. WMU 252.6 yd/gm 12 TD
11. Ohio 214.9 yd/gm 7 TD

TOTAL OFFENSE

5. WMU 440.7 yd/gm
9. Ohio 373.1 yd/gm

SCORING DEFENSE

3. Ohio 25.0 /gm
6. WMU 28.1 /gm

RUSHING DEFENSE

4. Ohio 142.6 yd/gm
6. WMU 169.1 yd/gm

PASSING DEFENSE

5. WMU 232.7 yd/gm 12 TD allowed
10. Ohio 285.6 yd/gm 16 TD allowed

TOTAL DEFENSE

3. WMU 401.9 yd/gm
6. Ohio 428.2 yd/gm

KICK RETURNS

1. WMU 23.7 Avg
4. Ohio 21.8 Avg

PUNT RETURNS

2. Ohio 10.2 Avg
13. WMU -0.3 Avg

SACKS BY

tie2. Ohio 8 gm, 17 sacks, 112 yd
11. WMU 7 gm, 8 sacks, 44 yd.

SACKS ALLOWED

5. Ohio 11 sacks, 92 yd
7. WMU 12 sacks, 59 yd

INTERCEPTIONS

4. Ohio 7 picks, 11.0 Avg
8. WMU 5 picks, 21.8 Avg

TURNOVER MARGIN

3. WMU +3, +0.43 /gm Gained 4 fmb, 5 int, Lost 2 fmb, 4 int
10. Ohio -5, -0.62 /gm Gained 2 fmb, 7 int, Lost 10 fmb, 4 int

RED ZONE OFFENSE

2. WMU 23-27, 85.2%, 16 TD, 7 FG
4. Ohio 21-25, 84.0%, 13 TD, 8 FG

RED ZONE DEFENSE

5. Ohio 21-26, 80.8%, 14 TD, 7 FG
6. WMU 22-27, 81.5%, 15 TD, 7 FG

So, what’s this all mean? Nothing by itself. Nothing.

Even in ‘normal’ years in the MAC, the difference btw most of the top and bottom MAC teams isn’t great statistically. I’ve seen some say this is a "wacky" year in the league. It’s not, really - we just don’t have a dominant team or teams that have a chance to crack the top 25 in the rankings. Lots of parity (and maybe parody, too!) But the MAC is a league defined by parity. Rarely do we see teams repeat as champions, with a few notable exceptions in recent years.

Matchups matter and are exploited. Key injuries happen and impact teams. There are a lot of variables that can affect stats and that make using them to compare teams difficult, like the SOS difference btw teams. When looking at Ohio and WMU, the schedules aren't necessarily that much different, except that WMU has played only 2 home games to OU’s 4. The Broncos are road warriors but now need to put the hammer down at home and regain that home field advantage.

We’ve both played Idaho and BGSU so those are easy to compare. Then, Purdue and VaTech are similar to Kentucky and Marshall. We each played an FCS team. KSU might be comparable to BSU. While we played Toledo, they played CMU. Their extra MAC game was Akron, a truly schizophrenic team if there ever was one. But, overall I'd say that we've played tougher offenses than they have.

What I see is that Ohio’s offense has had trouble holding on to the ball, especially fumbling. Our D needs to be opportunistic, as a fumble can turn the game or at least the field position.

It is also apparent that our punt returns are a mess. Special teams need to be more special. Phillips has a healthy kickoff return average but is capable of breaking one at any time. Our place kicker has been a bit erratic, but so has Ohio’s.

We have a better rushing game but Ohio has a better rushing defense. When those two meet, the winner will be decided in the trenches and OU has a good D front. We’ll see if our guys can rise to that challenge.

We may not reach our offensive averages but I like the fact that we have many weapons on offense to counter what OU tries to do to our offense.


What are your thoughts on this matchup? Anything glaring that I missed? Any intangibles that don’t get reflected in statistics that you feel may play a big role in the outcome?

Edit: I forgot one that might be a factor Saturday.

TIME OF POSSESSION

3. Western Michigan 32:45 Avg
9. Ohio 28:20 Avg

WMU strikes both with the pass and the run, doing much damage through the air and with YAC. Braverman has another big day and Davis is unstoppable. Franklin pounds the interior and is often stopped for short gains but still breaks a few explosive plays. Scores twice. Defense is opportunistic and recovers two fumbles, leading to short fields and 10 points. Terrell and the offense play another turnover free game. Bobcats offense shoots its feet off. Game over, crowd happy.

Nice homecoming for WMU!
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2014 12:09 AM by MileHighBronco.)
10-24-2014 08:25 PM
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Hiller4Hyz09 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: PJ's Road Warriors vs Franks's Bobcats
Well dunn MHB!
10-24-2014 09:00 PM
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The Colonel Offline
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Post: #3
RE: PJ's Road Warriors vs Franks's Bobcats
Nice breakdown, MHB - thanks for that! The statistic that stands out to me is our low overall rank in total sacks. It's a reminder that we need to put pressure on the QB, like we did last week at BG (and which we failed to do most of the game at Ball State).

I'm surprised that our punt return average has been so low. We've done a great job covering punts - hope that continues tomorrow and we can continue to do a good job of flipping field position when necessary.
10-24-2014 10:26 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #4
RE: PJ's Road Warriors vs Franks's Bobcats
I love stats. Better than Skinemax.
10-25-2014 02:02 AM
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MileHighBronco Offline
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Post: #5
RE: PJ's Road Warriors vs Franks's Bobcats
(10-24-2014 10:26 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  Nice breakdown, MHB - thanks for that! The statistic that stands out to me is our low overall rank in total sacks. It's a reminder that we need to put pressure on the QB, like we did last week at BG (and which we failed to do most of the game at Ball State).

I'm surprised that our punt return average has been so low. We've done a great job covering punts - hope that continues tomorrow and we can continue to do a good job of flipping field position when necessary.

Well, we're getting some good pressure when we had them backed up. Now, the Vick kid presents a bigger challenge, as he's mobile and can make things happen - but not if they rarely get the ball.
10-25-2014 02:51 PM
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The Colonel Offline
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Post: #6
RE: PJ's Road Warriors vs Franks's Bobcats
(10-25-2014 02:51 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  
(10-24-2014 10:26 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  Nice breakdown, MHB - thanks for that! The statistic that stands out to me is our low overall rank in total sacks. It's a reminder that we need to put pressure on the QB, like we did last week at BG (and which we failed to do most of the game at Ball State).

Well, we're getting some good pressure when we had them backed up. Now, the Vick kid presents a bigger challenge, as he's mobile and can make things happen - but not if they rarely get the ball.

I thought we did a good job of getting pressure on the QB throughout the game. Very pleased with our defensive effort today!
10-25-2014 04:42 PM
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MileHighBronco Offline
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Post: #7
RE: PJ's Road Warriors vs Franks's Bobcats
Agree about the pressure, tho some of it was the fact that we had a commanding lead and were able to pin our ears back and come at them.

I wasn't too far off with my game prediction. Missed on a few items but got a few, too.

Quote:WMU strikes both with the pass and the run, doing much damage through the air and with YAC. Braverman has another big day and Davis is unstoppable. Franklin pounds the interior and is often stopped for short gains but still breaks a few explosive plays. Scores twice. Defense is opportunistic and recovers two fumbles, leading to short fields and 10 points. Terrell and the offense play another turnover free game. Bobcats offense shoots its feet off. Game over, crowd happy.

Nice homecoming for WMU!

Let the partying begin!
10-25-2014 04:48 PM
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