Quote:Murray put up more points on Louisville than they did to us...
Murray State only did that deep in the 3rd quarter after Louisville was up 59-7. Kind of like how EMU scored 10 points against MSU. Murray St DID get a legit TD against them. Murray State is not anemic on offense in the FCS. I think our D adjustments, then strategy once we got the lead worked very well against them. Wouldn't work well against a mid-major with a decent O, though. You play people differently, you match up differently, and we had a decent gameplan since they were passing poorly trying to revive their O after we solidified a nice lead.
Quote:Do I think our defense is better than Louisville? Probably not...
I would say Definitely Not. They held Miami-FL to 13 pts, Virginia to 21 (not impressive, not too shabby either), and FIU to 3 points.
After giving up 40+ to Purdue and 30+ to Idaho, do I think we'd hold Miami-FL, Virginia, and FUI to a combined 37 points? No way.
Quote:I expect our defense to be better than it has been up to this point this year... I also expect the offense to be better... Therefore I cannot compare the WMU team that played Purdue and the WMU team that is going to play VaTech this weekend... nor would I want to...
Good point. But at the same time, one shouldn't ignore it either. If our D improves as the weeks go on -- of course. I think our team improved after we sunk super low losing to Nicholls last year, late in the season (improved, not clicking though; almost beating CMU & EMU; beating UMass barely, and making it a closer game against NIU than bettors would realize).
VaTach isn't an offensive power, but they got great D. With their O on the field a lot, would it be relatively safe for me to assume we'll hold them to around 30 or under? Absolutely not -- there's no basis for that when we allow Idaho to score over 30, as well as Purdue over 40 with a QB who struggles to throw 50%.
But will our D step up enough to stop them enough to contain the score from going too high, in combination with our O gaining ground? To a certain degree, yes -- that's possible and that's what I hope for: 38-17, possibly 34-21 -- but I wouldn't bet a dollar on that at all.
Why?
(a) Virginia Tech is going to aim to take their aggression out on Us.
(b) They stop the run GOOD. 2.7yds/carry @OSU, 2.8yds/carry against ECU, 2.7yds/carry against W&Mary. 5.7yds/carry by G-Tech, but like a better-Navy team, you'd expect it to be higher, plus they run diverse running plays which changes things since that's 90% of their game. But does give us hope learning from the game when/where we can run to get to 3-4 yards a carry.
© Terrell under pressure throwing the ball -- how many picks? Fumbles by hard hits from him or our freshman and/or others too? VaTech loves that stuff. 5 fumbles + 2 picks already this season.
(d) Special Teams -- VaTech just doesn't like turnovers but capitalizing on special teams run-backs, punt-blocks, etc.
So with all that said, and our team still gelling together -- and facing By Far the roughest, toughest team in about a year (since Iowa)? Yah.
I see it more like the Arkansas vs NIU game -- where Arkansas is better than VaTech in many ways, but NIU is better than us in many ways. But I would give us a bit of a bump up from that. Plus, VaTech throws more INTs than TDs (8 vs 7) -- this is time for our secondary to step up.
Thus, EXPECTATIONS? 44-17. Hopefully I'm wrong in this new year for Fleck & Co, and it's in my "HOPING TOO MUCH" category! Just trying to be realistic is all.
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The official Broncos @ Virginia Tech gamethread!!
