Remaining schedules:

11 games remaining:
Needs 5:
Cincy- home: Miami (Oh), Memphis, USF, Houstonaway: #23 Ohio st., Miami, SMU, Tulane, UConn, Temple

10 games remaining:
Needs 5:
Memphis- home: MTSU, Houston, Tulsa, USF, UConn away: #10 Ole Miss, Cincy, SMU, Temple, Tulane

Temple- home: Delaware st, Tulsa, ECU, Memphis, Cincy away: UConn, Houston, UCF, Penn st, Tulane

Needs 6:
SMU- home: #6 Tx A&M, TCU, Cincy, Memphis, USF, Houston away: ECU, Tulsa, UCF, UConn

UCF- home: Bethune-Cookman, #21 BYU, Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, SMU away: Houston, UConn, USF, ECU

9 games remaining:
Needs 4:
ECU- home: UNC, SMU, UConn, Tulane, UCF away: USF, Temple, Cincy, Tulsa

Needs 5:
Connecticut- home: Temple, UCF, Cincy, SMU away: USF, Tulane, ECU, Army, Memphis

Houston- home: UNLV, UCF, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa away: Memphis, USF, SMU, Cincy

Tulane- home: Uconn, Cincy, Memphis, Temple away: Duke, Rutgers, UCF, Houston, ECU

Tulsa- home: Tx st, USF, SMU, ECU away: Colorado st, Temple, Memphis, UCF, Houston

USF- home: Uconn, ECU, Houston, UCF away: #19 Wisonsin, Tulsa, Cincy, SMU, Memphis

My take:
Good to go- Cincy, Memphis, UCF, ECU, Houston
On watch: Temple, Tulsa
Danger zone: SMU, Uconn, USF
Undecided: Tulane

I used a really simple (and probably inaccurate) to create these groups. I placed a 0, .5 or 1 (lose, win or couldn't decide) on each upcoming opponent. +/-1 from the number of games needed decided their category. .5 from the amount of games needed placed the team in the "on watch" category. AAC games that weren't an exact toss up were not necessarily .5s for each team (say USF should have 1 for Uconn at home, but Uconn may have a .5 for USF). The goal here was to give teams at their best shot to go bowling. As the season develops I'll change it to the most realistic shot of making a bowl.

5-6. ECU, Memphis, Cincy, UCF, and/or Houston and Temple.

Navy goes too.