(08-20-2014 10:06 AM)Attackcoog Wrote: (08-20-2014 09:50 AM)NYCTUFan Wrote: (08-20-2014 08:32 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: (08-19-2014 09:22 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote: BYU > Air Force > Army
That is all
Of course, but all 3 would be a home run.
I used to think that also but I’ve started thinking about this differently from a purely business standpoint.
BYU and Army are no brainers. The Westchester NY / NYC market, the exposure of having Army and NAVY, BYU’s football history and exposure for the conference that their affiliation with the LDS church would bring make them both potentially lucrative moves for the AAC.
So say that both programs join and ESPN renegotiates or offers a new deal that’s an absolute home run at say 150,000,000 per year for 10 years. That’s just over 10 million per program per year (not factoring in partial shares for football only members like BYU, Army and Navy).
Would having the AFA and program #16 add enough value for ESPN to add another 21,000,000 per year for 10 years to the contract?
Lets take realistic numbers, 6,000,000 per year per program for 10 years with Army and BYU would be an 84,000,000 per year contact, does AFA and #16 move the needle 14% to 96,000,000 per year? If they don’t all that is happening is a dilution of revenue. Army and BYU have something of value to sell the networks, AFA not so much and #16 is a tag along to fill out the conference.
I’m starting to think that while having all 3 service academies would be nice having 14 with BYU and Army is clean, football only (no worries about a home for AFA’s Olympic sports), less travel and would be the most lucrative in the long run for the AAC.
It’s just a thought.
Here is the trouble with Army and Navy in the same conference. Thier game would have to be played prior to championship weekend. Would the Army-Navy game be as valuable of it wasn't played the week after championship weekend where it is really the only FBS football on that Saturday?
Here is what I think we can do for now---sign a scheduling agreement with Army. Sign a Notre Dame agreement with BYU. We get 5 games a year vs Army. We get 5 games a year vs BYU. BYU joins as a full Olympic member and gets access to all our bowls (exept the G5 access bowl slot).
Now you have 10 games involving Army or BYU on your schedule every year. A solid nationally followed BYU basketball program is now part of the AAC. The cost? We only have to split the media deal for a 1/13th share of the basketball side of revenue to BYU. But when it comes time to negotiate, we now have 5 extra guranteed national interest football games in our inventory every year + we added a nationally followed basketball program that regularly makes the NCAA tournament.
With this type of deal, future western expansion becomes much easier should we ever want to raid the MW for 4 members to become a 16 member national conference.
All valid points, but I think with a little creativity and luck the dates of the Army Navy game wouldn’t need to be changed.
Army and Navy would play in opposite divisions, so what if the game was played as an OOC game for both teams on the date it’s currently held? The risks are that either Army or Navy finish in a tie for their division lead, and are still tied after an in division tiebreaker is determined, which I would assume would then revert to an OOC game tiebreaker.
Another option is can the AAC lobby the NCAA because of its historic nature the game be played as an exhibition, or as an official 13th game and kept on the same date?
I am in the minority I know but I’m not one for the scheduling agreement idea. I believe BYU has everything to gain in that scenario with very little cost and very little if anything to lose. They get the scheduling flexibility they need especially during the weeks all the other programs are in the meat of the conference schedule. They get games against solid opponents that wouldn’t hurt their strength of schedule vs. a conference that still consider BYU a power opponent. They get exposure in some of the largest markets in the country. They get access to an AAC bowl all while still holding negotiations with the Big12 for a spot with them.
What does the AAC get? The fans get to see their team play a quality opponent, the schools get some scheduling relief filling their OOC with a solid opponent, but past that it’s nothing that the conference can leverage when negotiating a TV deal, there is no tangible value. The network is going to say what happens when the scheduling agreement runs out? If I were BYU I’m writing a buy out clause in the scheduling agreement if they move to a P5, the addition revenue from a Big12 deal would more than offset the loss.
As far as the Olympic sports it just doesn’t make sense to me for BYU to move them from a conference that they are fine in and increase their travel costs and move basketball into a conference where they run the real risk of being less competitive especially if they have eyes on a P5 spot.
I’m not naïve enough to believe that once BYU (or anyone else for that matter) is a member of the AAC it precludes them form pursuing opportunities to join a P5 conference, it’s just with the signed commitment to the conference as a member comes monetary value in negotiations for the AAC, value I just cant see in a scheduling agreement. I think BYU gets a nice taste of what the AAC has to offer this season, a test drive, past that they should be put in a position to make a decision as to weather they want to be a part of it for football (or all sports if they like) or not.
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