Volkmar
All American
Posts: 4,375
Joined: Jun 2013
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I Root For: U.T.S.A.
Location: Richmond, Texas
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RE: C-USA Attendance
(08-20-2014 04:27 AM)NTXCoog Wrote: (08-19-2014 10:23 PM)Volkmar Wrote: (08-19-2014 09:02 PM)NTXCoog Wrote: (08-19-2014 07:59 PM)Volkmar Wrote: (08-18-2014 01:50 PM)NTXCoog Wrote: I'm interested in what UTSA's attendance will be this year (my statistics degree and job leads me to look at stuff I shouldn't be interested in)
Avg attendance the last 3 years
2011 - 35,521
2012 - 29,226
2013 - 29,214
Median attendance the last 3 years
2011 - 32,628
2012 - 28,100
2013 - 25,970
That's a good size drop in median attendance every year even though the average stayed the same the last 2 years. So what does that mean? UTSA has had some big attendance games that skew up their averages.
2011 - 1st game for the program at 56k, but they also had 4 other 30k+ games
2012 - 39k vs neighbor TX State. 2 other games between 30k and 31k
2013 - 41k vs Okie St (1st home game against BCS/P5 team. Top 15 team). 32k vs UH (in state team that travels a core of 2-5k to close games). No other game broke 27k.
That brings us to 2014.
They do play Arizona at home. But I'm guessing an above average Pac12 team won't draw like a top 15 Big 12 team in Texas.
UTEP travels well, but not 40k well.
UNT - don't know how well they will travel there. I know there's a rivalry building. I think it depends on how well both teams are playing since it is the end of the year. If both teams are over .500 especially if they're battling for the division championship, there will be good attendance. If both teams are below expectations, possibly not. It will probably exceed 30k if expectations are met.
Beyond that you have UNM, FIU, and USM. Expect about 25k for those.
So my guess is the average and median are closer together without an outlier 40k game and UTSA averages closer to 27k. Possibilty of more if they vastly exceed expectations. There's a possibility that the median increases (a good sign for the long term health of the program) while the average attendance goes down.
I'm interested as well, but no surprises in your numbers above. That record breaking opening game undoubtedly was responsible for the large average attendance in year one. What we're seeing since is that the novelty has worn off a bit with the t-shirt fan, and expectedly so. What's important is that our season ticket count has gone up each year so far. I don't know what the current count is but we were over 14k last season, which is impressive for a 3rd year program.
Btw, no surprises about spikes in attendance for certain opponents either. That's typical for most mid-majors. If you look at your own Houston Cougars last season, your two biggest home attendance marks were 34,831 against Rice (an in-town rival game since Rice is in Houston also), and 33,115 against BYU. Aside from those, here were your other home games:
26,205 (season opener vs. Southern)
23,210 (vs. SMU)
22,707 (vs. South Florida)
20,197 (vs. Cincinnati)
20,103 (vs. Memphis)
Yes, we've had fluctuations, but our lowest attendance last season was 24,606 against Tulane, which still beats most of your home games, and we've only had football for 3 years. So I'm happy with what I'm seeing so far.
I wouldn't try to derive any conclusions from last year's UH attendance. We played in 2 different stadia off campus. Throw in 2 Friday games (the opener against an FCS team and the day after Thanksgiving vs SMU) and a Halloween Thursday, and it was not an ideal year for attendance. The 2 lowest attended games were at the soccer stadium whose capacity is low enough that they were basically sell outs.
Shouldn't be excuses, but they did have an impact.
I understand that completely, but if you go back to 2011, in what was arguably perhaps your program's best ever season, your average attendance that year (being ranked as high as #7 before your loss to Southern Miss) was around 31,000, which is still only a couple thousand more than our third year program pulled last season in a year when we weren't even bowl-eligible.
In 2012, when you had a rocky season, your attendance fluctuated again accordingly, despite having one home stadium. Besides, yes your two lowest attended games last season were at BBVA Compass Stadium, and they were near sellouts, but the point is that they weren't sellouts. You were a couple thousand short in both of those games of selling out the place, so you can't blame that on the stadium size.
RE 2011, the stadium held around 32k, so 31k was 97% of capacity. Every game was over 30k. Hard to have higher attendance than the stadium holds.
2012 - after the TX State debacle, I'm amazed we averaged 27k. We did have 3 sellouts though and every game was over 25k.
I'm not saying UH is world beaters in attendance, never has been. But UTSA is a brand new program with success and a few marquee matchups which skew the averages up. When UTSA has an unsuccessful year (which I would bet on next year) and less marquee home opponents, what is going to happen? You've seen the median attendance drop like a rock. Hopefully it levels out for you guys.
Like I said, marquee matchups skew most mid-majors averages up. Look, you're not telling me anything about UTSA Football I don't already know...lol. As long as our average remains pretty consistent, and our season tickets continue to increase, I frankly don't give a **** about median attendance. Our attendance will start rising again soon as our program continues to gain prominence and we start getting bowl bids. We've had football for effin' 3 years so far, and your'e nitpicking about median attendance when other startup programs like Georgia State and South Alabama are happy to have half the attendance we have. We're right up there with your school which has had football for almost 70 years. I REALLY don't think we're gonna be hovering around 30K by the time our football program is 7 decades old when we're already there in year three. I know Houston had over 30K in every game in 2011, but that was the first time you ever had that in your entire, long history, so forgive me for not being impressed.
Everyone I know expected our attendance to go down just a tad and level out a bit in years 2 and 3 because as I already said, the novelty wears off. But again, as long as our average is holding pretty steady and our season ticket holders continue to increase in number, I'm fine with it for now. We have roughly as many season ticket holders as Georgia State and South Alabama get in average attendance.
I don't think we'll be "unsuccessful" next season (2015) btw. I think we'll be a respectable .500. And most UTSA faithful actually predicted us to take a hit and go down a bit in 2015 because of all those seniors we'll lose who've been with us since their freshman year. Our younger athletes may not have the experience our seniors this year will have, but by-and-large, they're better athletes than the guys we were able to recruit for our inaugural season. They have a higher ceiling, and I just can't see us having a let down like UH did in 2012 because of our coaching staff and what they're able to get out of our boys.
(This post was last modified: 08-20-2014 08:55 PM by Volkmar.)
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