(07-28-2014 02:58 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(07-28-2014 01:18 PM)YNot Wrote:  My hunch is that you will get a majority of American and MWC schools, but not all, that will match the P5 in critical spending increases, such as full cost scholarships (ie, player stipends), 4-year scholarships, meals (to at least a critical minimum). There will also likely be a couple of C-USA, MAC, and may be Sun Belt teams that step up. Rice? UTEP? Northern Illinois? Marshall?

That will create some competitive imbalances within the American and MWC, such that it could become plausible that some of the "lesser" teams might consider to leave to stay competitive. It will be interesting to see how it affects realignment at the G5-level.

This could cause the merger that did not happen earlier. The survive teams:

Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida
Houston
Boise State
BYU
Colorado State
Fresno State
New Mexico
San Diego State

Funny thing is you forgot AFA and Navy. You forget that they will make the jump. They unlike the rest have already been on a sort of stipends basis all along.

(07-28-2014 01:18 PM)YNot Wrote:  My hunch is that you will get a majority of American and MWC schools, but not all, that will match the P5 in critical spending increases, such as full cost scholarships (ie, player stipends), 4-year scholarships, meals (to at least a critical minimum). There will also likely be a couple of C-USA, MAC, and may be Sun Belt teams that step up. Rice? UTEP? Northern Illinois? Marshall?

That will create some competitive imbalances within the American and MWC, such that it could become plausible that some of the "lesser" teams might consider to leave to stay competitive. It will be interesting to see how it affects realignment at the G5-level.

I don't see any MAC schools with the kind of budget to match many of the P5 offerings. Texas State has 30+ million dollar budget. Old Dominion has a similar budget. So those two might be able to pull it off. There are not many in CUSA or the Sunbelt that have big enough budgets where they might be able to scrape up enough extra cash to handle those new expenses. There are certainly a few that could---maybe a third at most would be my guess.

Memphis's 2013 revenue was $46 million. SMU was at $52 million and Temple at $41 million.

https://b2.caspio.com/dp.asp?AppKey=900c...04a22814aC

That's more than Boise St., Colorado St., etc.

Tulsa ($32 million) and Tulane ($29 million) have some work to do.

(07-28-2014 03:04 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  Funny thing is you forgot AFA and Navy. You forget that they will make the jump. They unlike the rest have already been on a sort of stipends basis all along.

Air Force ($39 mil), Army ($37 mil), and Navy ($44 mil) are seemingly right on the margin. Still about $10 million behind P5 dregs like Washington St. and Wake Forest.

(07-28-2014 03:16 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(07-28-2014 03:04 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  Funny thing is you forgot AFA and Navy. You forget that they will make the jump. They unlike the rest have already been on a sort of stipends basis all along.

Air Force ($39 mil), Army ($37 mil), and Navy ($44 mil) are seemingly right on the margin. Still about $10 million behind P5 dregs like Washington St. and Wake Forest.

You can not count AFA and Navy in that way. Their budgets will fluctuate with their mission. If it's deemed a priority for them to be Div4, you can bet their budgets will reflect such with the stroke of a pen.

(07-28-2014 02:58 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(07-28-2014 01:18 PM)YNot Wrote:  My hunch is that you will get a majority of American and MWC schools, but not all, that will match the P5 in critical spending increases, such as full cost scholarships (ie, player stipends), 4-year scholarships, meals (to at least a critical minimum). There will also likely be a couple of C-USA, MAC, and may be Sun Belt teams that step up. Rice? UTEP? Northern Illinois? Marshall?

That will create some competitive imbalances within the American and MWC, such that it could become plausible that some of the "lesser" teams might consider to leave to stay competitive. It will be interesting to see how it affects realignment at the G5-level.

This could cause the merger that did not happen earlier. The survive teams:

Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
East Carolina
South Florida
Houston
Boise State
BYU
Colorado State
Fresno State
New Mexico
San Diego State

I'll just invite BYU, Fresno State, Sandiego State, UNLV to the AAC and call it a day.

Damn, no Philly market in that group.

Here are the non-P5 schools above $30 million:

UNLV ($64)
UConn ($63)
Cincinnati ($61)
BYU ($54)
SMU ($52)
USF ($47)
Memphis ($46)
Navy ($44)
New Mexico ($44)
Boise St. ($43)
Houston ($42)
UCF ($41)
Temple ($41)
Air Force ($39)
San Diego St. ($39)
Army ($37)
Hawaii ($37)
ECU ($35)
Colorado St. ($34)
Fresno St. ($33)
Rice ($32)
Tulsa ($32)
New Mexico St. ($30)
UMass ($30)

Tulane was at $29.4 mil and Wyoming, Texas State, and UTEP also $29 mil and there are a bunch of Mac, C-USA, and Sun Belt schools in the $25-28 mil range.

If the level needed to compete is (arbitrarily) $40 million, the list is cut quite a bit to the following:

UNLV ($64)
UConn ($63)
Cincinnati ($61)
BYU ($54)
SMU ($52)
USF ($47)
Memphis ($46)
Navy ($44)
New Mexico ($44)
Boise St. ($43)
Houston ($42)
UCF ($41)
Temple ($41)

With San Diego St. and Air Force barely missing the cut at $39 million. Of course, this doesn't account for the likely upward tick in revenue for teams like ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa in coming over to the American in 2014.

Good luck ya'll!

(07-28-2014 03:12 PM)YNot Wrote:  Memphis's 2013 revenue was $46 million. SMU was at $52 million and Temple at $41 million.

https://b2.caspio.com/dp.asp?AppKey=900c...04a22814aC

That's more than Boise St., Colorado St., etc.

Tulsa ($32 million) and Tulane ($29 million) have some work to do.

According to our AD (but we don't trust him!) Tulane's athletics revenue is up 500% this coming year, fueled by a new On Campus Stadium, the upgrade in conference affiliation, and a whole slew of other factors. I hope he's right, but fear if he's right he might stay. We want Rick Dickson gone from Tulane ASAP.

Tulane also brings a whole lot that some others don't bring. In particular the geographic footprint of the conference having a New Orleans based member is HUGE for recruiting. Keep in mind Louisiana is the #1 state per capita in the country for producing D1 football players. It is a hotbed of both football and basketball talent. Other factors include past history (distant past unfortunately!) as Tulane owns more SEC Football championships than 5 current SEC Members combined! Sure academics help, and Tulane is one of the leading academic institutions among the AAC and MWC, though UConn (ranked 57th in the USN&WR rankings) is not far behind.

One other factor: It was Tulane that first pushed for the old C-USA to merge with the MWC. We were founding members of first the SEC, then the Metro Conference and finally C-USA (Bearcat fans probably forget that they lost to Tulane in the first C-USA game ever, in their home stadium, no less!)

ROLL WAVE!