(07-22-2014 01:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 01:27 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 01:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 11:00 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 10:45 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Sounding like the B12 is about to get the BE treatment.

History has a tendency of repeating itself. The key in college football is to not perceived as the weakest.

So you are saying you think the Big 10 or ACC are in trouble? ... .

The B10 is one of the conferences calling the shots, so they are obviously safe. The B12 looks to be next on the hit list, because just like in the BE's case they have the smallest number of football members of the power football conferences and on top of that they only have a couple of members that are seen as true powers (Texas and Oklahoma) by the other football powers.

I was joking. But the BE was viewed as the weakest financially and competitively and they had no true powers. The Big 12 is clearly the 2nd or 3rd strongest in football and has been for the last 5 or 6 years. Meanwhile, the Pac 12 only has 1 true power and the ACC 2, one of which (Miami), hasn't been competing lately.

The Big East didn't even have anyone viewed as historical mid-level (top 25-30) football schools but West Virginia.

Despite the joke you're on to it. It's not always the actual weakest in competition, but perceived weakness.

Dodd writes for CBS. That channel has exactly zero.zero Big12 affiliation. Not a single game on their channel. Although, they do show a lot of SEC games. Hmm, makes one wonder.

(07-22-2014 08:14 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:12 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:05 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 07:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  yeah definitely would need to become clear. Right now, in the 3 years of 10 team Big 12-
2011- Oklahoma St definitely would have been in
2012- Kansas St would have been in the discussion for sure- not sure if another game would have put them over the top quite frankly. Not getting in over ND, Alabama for sure. In a group with Florida, Stanford(p12 champ), and Oregon for 2 slots.
2013- same thing with Baylor last year... Less of a shot though....

So 1 definite yes, 1 definite no. 1 maybe. hardly conclusive...

1 definite yes, 2 that are iffy based on margin of the one loss.

You can make a good argument that if BU and KSU lose close games instead of by big margins they would be in the playoff those years.

After their loss they fell to #6 in the BCS poll I believe.

After losing by multiple TD's. It would have been a lesser fall if they lose in triple OT IMO and they probably would have made a 4 team playoff. You have to look at the body of work and they would have been 8-1 in Big 12 play with the one coming narrowly, they laid waste to an ACC division champ (Miami) in non-con, and were very strong all year. Given the committee preference for conference champions I find it hard to argue that ND, Bama, KSU, and Oregon would not have been the 4.

There has only been one winner of the Coastal that doesn't have "Tech" in their name and that was Duke last year. Miami winning only happened in Swofford's dreams.

(07-22-2014 08:12 PM)Groo Wrote:  Dodd writes for CBS. That channel has exactly zero.zero Big12 affiliation. Not a single game on their channel. Although, they do show a lot of SEC games. Hmm, makes one wonder.

Just because they don't have a deal with the Big 12 doesn't mean Dennis Dodd is going to lower himself to being an baseless attack dog with very little self respect. That is what you are suggesting.

What Dodd is, he is the guy that "they" use to bring forward important bits of information. He also wrote a piece about Commissioner Bowlsby's words about how bad the NCAA's enforcement has been. If CBS is in the business denigrating the Big 12 then no way he is allowed to portray Bowlsby in such a strong manner.

Whether or not the Big 12's set up is a hinderance or a strength has been a talking point going back much longer than just this piece by Dodd so trying to turn this into a CBS conspiracy against the Big 12 is just silly.

There ARE "conspiracies" within the bigger picture but CBS going after the Big 12 with THIS piece, is just silly.

The Big 12 is a target though. CBS is not in the business of challenging the other Networks for more football games. They pay heavily for a few big games and otherwise they prefer other ventures it seems. They are trading off by having THE guy to go to for this kind of news. Folks here may not realize it but Dennis is THE go to guy right now for those whom understand how he is being used.

(07-22-2014 10:45 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Sounding like the B12 is about to get the BE treatment.

And that's because the Four-Letter Mouse Network has to find a way to punish those who don't toe their line completely (iow give away the product completely over to them). The BE going to the open market had the potential of doing away with the monopoly in college sports. Fox and NBC taking more market share meant much less money to pay shills like Mark May and Duke Vitale.

(07-22-2014 08:51 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:14 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:12 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:05 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 07:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  yeah definitely would need to become clear. Right now, in the 3 years of 10 team Big 12-
2011- Oklahoma St definitely would have been in
2012- Kansas St would have been in the discussion for sure- not sure if another game would have put them over the top quite frankly. Not getting in over ND, Alabama for sure. In a group with Florida, Stanford(p12 champ), and Oregon for 2 slots.
2013- same thing with Baylor last year... Less of a shot though....

So 1 definite yes, 1 definite no. 1 maybe. hardly conclusive...

1 definite yes, 2 that are iffy based on margin of the one loss.

You can make a good argument that if BU and KSU lose close games instead of by big margins they would be in the playoff those years.

After their loss they fell to #6 in the BCS poll I believe.

After losing by multiple TD's. It would have been a lesser fall if they lose in triple OT IMO and they probably would have made a 4 team playoff. You have to look at the body of work and they would have been 8-1 in Big 12 play with the one coming narrowly, they laid waste to an ACC division champ (Miami) in non-con, and were very strong all year. Given the committee preference for conference champions I find it hard to argue that ND, Bama, KSU, and Oregon would not have been the 4.

There has only been one winner of the Coastal that doesn't have "Tech" in their name and that was Duke last year. Miami winning only happened in Swofford's dreams.

I'm pretty sure in 2012 Miami won their division but declined to participate in the ACCCG due to the Shapiro fallout.

(07-22-2014 09:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:12 PM)Groo Wrote:  Dodd writes for CBS. That channel has exactly zero.zero Big12 affiliation. Not a single game on their channel. Although, they do show a lot of SEC games. Hmm, makes one wonder.

Just because they don't have a deal with the Big 12 doesn't mean Dennis Dodd is going to lower himself to being an baseless attack dog with very little self respect. That is what you are suggesting.

What Dodd is, he is the guy that "they" use to bring forward important bits of information. He also wrote a piece about Commissioner Bowlsby's words about how bad the NCAA's enforcement has been. If CBS is in the business denigrating the Big 12 then no way he is allowed to portray Bowlsby in such a strong manner.

Whether or not the Big 12's set up is a hinderance or a strength has been a talking point going back much longer than just this piece by Dodd so trying to turn this into a CBS conspiracy against the Big 12 is just silly.

There ARE "conspiracies" within the bigger picture but CBS going after the Big 12 with THIS piece, is just silly.

The Big 12 is a target though. CBS is not in the business of challenging the other Networks for more football games. They pay heavily for a few big games and otherwise they prefer other ventures it seems. They are trading off by having THE guy to go to for this kind of news. Folks here may not realize it but Dennis is THE go to guy right now for those whom understand how he is being used.

"baseless attack dog" your words not mine. I don't see the "sports" reports suggesting that the Big12 might be better off as is posted on this forum. Those reports are out there ad naseum. Go find them, post them. See if you can calm the peanut gallery looking to tear down the conference for their own reasons. I don't give two sh!ts. The fact is, the Big12 is happy at 10 and can circumvent the current bs dealing with a CCG. The ACC, looking to boost their b.s. division champions (who skip their only tough teams in FSU)(much like the SEC) are already pushing for it. Autonomy anyone? The constant attempts of these forum posters to try and tear down the Big12 is comical and based on either envy or fear.

(07-22-2014 09:55 PM)Groo Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 09:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:12 PM)Groo Wrote:  Dodd writes for CBS. That channel has exactly zero.zero Big12 affiliation. Not a single game on their channel. Although, they do show a lot of SEC games. Hmm, makes one wonder.

Just because they don't have a deal with the Big 12 doesn't mean Dennis Dodd is going to lower himself to being an baseless attack dog with very little self respect. That is what you are suggesting.

What Dodd is, he is the guy that "they" use to bring forward important bits of information. He also wrote a piece about Commissioner Bowlsby's words about how bad the NCAA's enforcement has been. If CBS is in the business denigrating the Big 12 then no way he is allowed to portray Bowlsby in such a strong manner.

Whether or not the Big 12's set up is a hinderance or a strength has been a talking point going back much longer than just this piece by Dodd so trying to turn this into a CBS conspiracy against the Big 12 is just silly.

There ARE "conspiracies" within the bigger picture but CBS going after the Big 12 with THIS piece, is just silly.

The Big 12 is a target though. CBS is not in the business of challenging the other Networks for more football games. They pay heavily for a few big games and otherwise they prefer other ventures it seems. They are trading off by having THE guy to go to for this kind of news. Folks here may not realize it but Dennis is THE go to guy right now for those whom understand how he is being used.

"baseless attack dog" your words not mine. I don't see the "sports" reports suggesting that the Big12 might be better off as is posted on this forum. Those reports are out there ad naseum. Go find them, post them. See if you can calm the peanut gallery looking to tear down the conference for their own reasons. I don't give two sh!ts. The fact is, the Big12 is happy at 10 and can circumvent the current bs dealing with a CCG. The ACC, looking to boost their b.s. division champions (who skip their only tough teams in FSU)(much like the SEC) are already pushing for it. Autonomy anyone? The constant attempts of these forum posters to try and tear down the Big12 is comical and based on either envy or fear.

Ahh, one of those people that will just have to see to believe. Let me guess, you are a Christian and have picked up that persecution ideology and projected it onto your tribalistic following of the Big 12?

No one is tearing down the Big 12 when they talk about it in such a way. Your top elite programs have had their schools shopping around multiple times for other conferences and have had the most schools depart of any major conference four times over.

By all means though, go on keeping your head in the sand.

The true identity of Captain Obvious has been revealed!

(07-22-2014 09:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:12 PM)Groo Wrote:  Dodd writes for CBS. That channel has exactly zero.zero Big12 affiliation. Not a single game on their channel. Although, they do show a lot of SEC games. Hmm, makes one wonder.

Just because they don't have a deal with the Big 12 doesn't mean Dennis Dodd is going to lower himself to being an baseless attack dog with very little self respect. That is what you are suggesting.

What Dodd is, he is the guy that "they" use to bring forward important bits of information. He also wrote a piece about Commissioner Bowlsby's words about how bad the NCAA's enforcement has been. If CBS is in the business denigrating the Big 12 then no way he is allowed to portray Bowlsby in such a strong manner.

Whether or not the Big 12's set up is a hinderance or a strength has been a talking point going back much longer than just this piece by Dodd so trying to turn this into a CBS conspiracy against the Big 12 is just silly.

There ARE "conspiracies" within the bigger picture but CBS going after the Big 12 with THIS piece, is just silly.

The Big 12 is a target though. CBS is not in the business of challenging the other Networks for more football games. They pay heavily for a few big games and otherwise they prefer other ventures it seems. They are trading off by having THE guy to go to for this kind of news. Folks here may not realize it but Dennis is THE go to guy right now for those whom understand how he is being used.

And he does sometimes get used to put out nonsense.
Don't think CBS has any vendetta.
And sometimes he's just repeating stuff people with no agenda have said. Doesn't mean its meaningful.

last 3 yrs with BE gone and B-12 at 10 would be more acurerete
SEC got 5, B-12 & Pac12 got 2, B-10, ACC & ND got 1
'11- Ala, LSU, OklaSt, Stanford
'12- Ala, ND, Fla, Oregon
'13- FSU, Auburn, MichSt, Baylor
TV markets will influence picks & no shot with 2 loses

(07-22-2014 05:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 04:32 PM)goofus Wrote:  In 12 years, there will be 48 bids given out for the playoffs. My guess is the breakdown will look something like this in total bids

SEC - 14
BigTen - 9
ACC - 8
PAC12 - 7
B12 - 6
G5/indy - 4

So breaking it down by individual teams, the chance each team by conference will make it to the playoffs in a given year are

SEC - 8.3%
BigTen - 5.4%
ACC - 4.8 %
Pac12 - 4.9%
Big12 - 5.0%
G5/Indy - 0.5%

Seemed to be just a totally random guess, so I looked at the final AP poll for the last 12 years out of curiosity. Top 4 slots in the last 12 years based on conference at the time (current conference):

SEC 15 (16)
Pac 12 11 (13)
Big 12 8 ( 8)
Big 10 7 ( 7)
MWC 3 ( 1)
ACC 1 ( 2)
Ind 1 ( 1)
Big East 1 ( 0)
WAC 1 ( 0)

Is that final 4 before the bowls or after?

And yes my original numbers are a projection which is partly based on history but also based on the odds of a winner of 14-team conference and a CCG will have better odds of making the playoffs. But ultimately numbers can be skewed if 1 program gets on a roll like USC. They also can be skewed by historically great teams going through down times. I just dont believe the ACC can be as bad as its been last decade. FSU and Clemson winning their BCS bowls last year suggests the ACC dry spell may be over. Penn State and Michigan have had down times lately too. Shifting demographics could be an issue in the North though so there is no guarantee they will make it back to elite status.

(07-22-2014 01:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 11:00 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 10:45 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Sounding like the B12 is about to get the BE treatment.

History has a tendency of repeating itself. The key in college football is to not perceived as the weakest.

So you are saying you think the Big 10 or ACC are in trouble? They are unquestionably the weakest in football.

I rule nothing out. Except I think we should leave the ACC off that list. If not for that Raycom sweetheart deal they'd be completely under the aegis of the Four-Letter Mouse Network. Swofford may be slimy but he's not dumb. He knows his best bet is to stick with them and hope other conferences get the BE Treatment. People arguing over football records miss the point. In fact, they help the real power brokers at Big Media by fueling the perceptions needed to justify destroying long-time associations.

(07-22-2014 10:36 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 05:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 04:32 PM)goofus Wrote:  In 12 years, there will be 48 bids given out for the playoffs. My guess is the breakdown will look something like this in total bids

SEC - 14
BigTen - 9
ACC - 8
PAC12 - 7
B12 - 6
G5/indy - 4

So breaking it down by individual teams, the chance each team by conference will make it to the playoffs in a given year are

SEC - 8.3%
BigTen - 5.4%
ACC - 4.8 %
Pac12 - 4.9%
Big12 - 5.0%
G5/Indy - 0.5%

Seemed to be just a totally random guess, so I looked at the final AP poll for the last 12 years out of curiosity. Top 4 slots in the last 12 years based on conference at the time (current conference):

SEC 15 (16)
Pac 12 11 (13)
Big 12 8 ( 8)
Big 10 7 ( 7)
MWC 3 ( 1)
ACC 1 ( 2)
Ind 1 ( 1)
Big East 1 ( 0)
WAC 1 ( 0)

Is that final 4 before the bowls or after?

And yes my original numbers are a projection which is partly based on history but also based on the odds of a winner of 14-team conference and a CCG will have better odds of making the playoffs. But ultimately numbers can be skewed if 1 program gets on a roll like USC. They also can be skewed by historically great teams going through down times. I just dont believe the ACC can be as bad as its been last decade. FSU and Clemson winning their BCS bowls last year suggests the ACC dry spell may be over. Penn State and Michigan have had down times lately too. Shifting demographics could be an issue in the North though so there is no guarantee they will make it back to elite status.

That's after. That was handy. Finding before is a little more difficult. Note that Texas and OU have been down the last 4 years and the Big 12 is STILL 3rd. So IMO your estimate isn't really worth the bandwith, let alone a sheet of paper.

BTW, the history in the Big 12 is that a championship game has NEVER given the conference an extra shot at the title game and cost them the championship game 3 times and nearly two other times.

(07-22-2014 10:20 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  last 3 yrs with BE gone and B-12 at 10 would be more acurerete
SEC got 5, B-12 & Pac12 got 2, B-10, ACC & ND got 1
'11- Ala, LSU, OklaSt, Stanford
'12- Ala, ND, Fla, Oregon
'13- FSU, Auburn, MichSt, Baylor
TV markets will influence picks & no shot with 2 loses

Alabama likely over Baylor last year. conference champs mean something- but there was a huge gulf between bama and Baylor last year- one that was too big to ignore there.

(07-23-2014 12:05 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 10:36 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 05:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 04:32 PM)goofus Wrote:  In 12 years, there will be 48 bids given out for the playoffs. My guess is the breakdown will look something like this in total bids

SEC - 14
BigTen - 9
ACC - 8
PAC12 - 7
B12 - 6
G5/indy - 4

So breaking it down by individual teams, the chance each team by conference will make it to the playoffs in a given year are

SEC - 8.3%
BigTen - 5.4%
ACC - 4.8 %
Pac12 - 4.9%
Big12 - 5.0%
G5/Indy - 0.5%

Seemed to be just a totally random guess, so I looked at the final AP poll for the last 12 years out of curiosity. Top 4 slots in the last 12 years based on conference at the time (current conference):

SEC 15 (16)
Pac 12 11 (13)
Big 12 8 ( 8)
Big 10 7 ( 7)
MWC 3 ( 1)
ACC 1 ( 2)
Ind 1 ( 1)
Big East 1 ( 0)
WAC 1 ( 0)

Is that final 4 before the bowls or after?

And yes my original numbers are a projection which is partly based on history but also based on the odds of a winner of 14-team conference and a CCG will have better odds of making the playoffs. But ultimately numbers can be skewed if 1 program gets on a roll like USC. They also can be skewed by historically great teams going through down times. I just dont believe the ACC can be as bad as its been last decade. FSU and Clemson winning their BCS bowls last year suggests the ACC dry spell may be over. Penn State and Michigan have had down times lately too. Shifting demographics could be an issue in the North though so there is no guarantee they will make it back to elite status.

That's after. That was handy. Finding before is a little more difficult. Note that Texas and OU have been down the last 4 years and the Big 12 is STILL 3rd. So IMO your estimate isn't really worth the bandwith, let alone a sheet of paper.

BTW, the history in the Big 12 is that a championship game has NEVER given the conference an extra shot at the title game and cost them the championship game 3 times and nearly two other times.

That's under the old system. This new CFP setup will likely punish the Big12 for not taking the same risk as the rest of the P5, in the form of a CCG. You as a Big12 fan will obviously not like that, but it won't change anything if you disagree. I'm an OU alum and lifelong fan, but i'm just being objective that this scenario might happen.

I don't see the committee putting in a 11-2 team automatically in over a 11-1 Big 12 champion because of no CCG.

I would say that there is also a huge difference between qualifying for a top 2 and qualifying for a top 4.
1998- Kansas St would have still qualified OR Texas A&M would have had a real shot at making top 4.
2003- Oklahoma would have still qualified
2007- Missouri would have gotten knocked out, but Oklahoma would have gotten in their place by winning title game.

really only 1996 would it have knocked Big 12 out of 4 team playoff.

(07-22-2014 09:43 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:51 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:14 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:12 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(07-22-2014 08:05 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  1 definite yes, 2 that are iffy based on margin of the one loss.

You can make a good argument that if BU and KSU lose close games instead of by big margins they would be in the playoff those years.

After their loss they fell to #6 in the BCS poll I believe.

After losing by multiple TD's. It would have been a lesser fall if they lose in triple OT IMO and they probably would have made a 4 team playoff. You have to look at the body of work and they would have been 8-1 in Big 12 play with the one coming narrowly, they laid waste to an ACC division champ (Miami) in non-con, and were very strong all year. Given the committee preference for conference champions I find it hard to argue that ND, Bama, KSU, and Oregon would not have been the 4.

There has only been one winner of the Coastal that doesn't have "Tech" in their name and that was Duke last year. Miami winning only happened in Swofford's dreams.

I'm pretty sure in 2012 Miami won their division but declined to participate in the ACCCG due to the Shapiro fallout.

Miami tied for first with UNC and GT. UNC would have won the tiebreakers but they were ineligible. Miami declared themselves ineligible. So GT represented the Coastal.

I know they're in love w/the round robin, but the B12 may be forced to add 2 very soon

What it sounds like is the other Big 4 aren't going to allow the B12 with that possible advantage (ignoring an extra win or loss from a playoff, wear and tear on players also a big thing-- playing an all hands on deck playoff game is very different than adding even a Top 20 OOC game in September).

(07-23-2014 11:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  I know they're in love w/the round robin, but the B12 may be forced to add 2 very soon

What it sounds like is the other Big 4 aren't going to allow the B12 with that possible advantage (ignoring an extra win or loss from a playoff, wear and tear on players also a big thing-- playing an all hands on deck playoff game is very different than adding even a Top 20 OOC game in September).

the thing is if they were going to make a stand, it would have had to be before now when the contracts are all done.