(05-20-2014 10:08 PM)Topkat Wrote: Unfortunately, any cable package I buy has channels included that I don't watch. So, welcome to the party.
http://www.barkingcarnival.com/2014/5/20...ot-of-gold
The above link says the Big Ten is looking at north of $40M per school in tv revenue in 2017 (BTN + New TV Deal).
I assume that is their own projections based on what they think will be the new TV deal in 2016 + BTN. By then I think the BTN will be generating a payout of $9-10M per school, with Rutgers and Maryland (current payout about $7.5M per school).
I'm not sure I understand all the talk about Rutgers being an extra mouth to feed. Without Comcast figured in, on the low end adding Rutgers generates about $24M in revenue/year. Even if you only look at half (after taxes) being distributed to the 14 schools, its about $850K per school (we haven't even touched on advertising money increasing).
Honestly, maybe someone can explain how the SEC or potental ACC network model would be different? Whatever reasons you cite for the BTN is going to apply to other conference networks.
Please list your calculations how Rutgers will add $24 million with Comcast figured in. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but there is no data in that blog that can determine that, and likely, there will be nothing forthcoming to determine that.
BTW, that over $40 million number in 2017 (actually $44.5 million) was from an article in the Lafayette Journal & Courier and included projections for the entirety of the per team conference disbursement that is expected in the first year of their primary media deal with ESPN and/or Fox. That number included everything, not just media rights, including College Football Playoff payouts, NCAA tournament, bowls, etc, as well as Big Ten Network profit shares that they are distributing for the first time this year. That projection also makes a lot of assumptions about a contract that isn't yet negotiated, and is also during a time when MD and RU have not yet been fully integrated financially.
To address this, consider that the Big Ten isn't getting a dime more from the College Football Playoff because it has MD and Rutgers, it likely isn't getting anything significantly more from bowls because of those two, it isn't going to generate more revenue from its football championship, and well, we'll see how well those two do in the NCAA Tournament. There is no way to know how much those two would add to the future ESPN/Fox contract over and above the increases the Big Ten would have received anyway, and the only thing you can consider is to ask yourself how much value those two schools brought to their prior Big East/ACC contracts, which didn't seem like a whole lot, especially for Rutgers. How much will they contribute to Big Ten Network earnings?...that's only one piece of that $44.5m projection ..there is no way to tell without making a ton of assumptions unless you have the actual numbers about increased carriage, subscriber rates, advertising rates in the new markets, profit share increases due to just those two teams, everything. No one has these numbers.
This is the danger of lazy bloggers just throwing numbers together without consideration of context. People's eyes get wide and they get all lathered up over big numbers. We can diverge from the Big Ten and also look at the ridiculous projections that were made about the Pac-12 and SEC networks being instant cash machines; but the reality is far from that. The point isn't that these networks may not eventually make money, because they will, but how the blog-o-sphere is more about splashy headlines than examining information in detail and context.