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Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
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CrimsonPhantom Offline
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Post: #1
Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
This dude has got the whole thing lined out how realignment goes because of what happens with the SBC. I will be surprised if 10% of what he says happens.

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Here is the whole thing, it is long:

Everyone, I have big news. There is a big storm brewing and it's coming over the horizon fast. Yes, you all know what it is. It involves the Sun Belt Conference; however, there's much more than that. The Missouri Valley Conference will be affected and in turn so will the Summit League, and in turn, so will the WAC. I also sense the Big East is going to invite Dayton and St. Louis of the A-10 and expand on July 1, 2015. I have insider information that Karl Benson and the Sun Belt Conference will call James Madison offering full membership in an FBS conference and JMU will decline the invitation. Next, the Sun Belt Conference will offer an invitation for all sports to Missouri State and Missouri State will accept this invitation. The Sun Belt will never get to Liberty because the Sun Belt does not want Liberty. If it did, it would have invited them by now. Instead, they have been working on Missouri State who is interested in FBS.


This is very important, because it gives the Sun Belt Conference the 12th full member it desired, and it is important to Missouri State because it gives them a stronger FBS revenue stream as well as generating additional revenue for the Sun Belt Conference with a football conference championship game. Missouri State will be offered its choice of divisional alignment in the Sun Belt and it will choose the East Division rather than fly to Moscow, Idaho yearly. This is completely fine and a win-win for all involved.


The dominoes start to fall when the Big East invites Dayton and St. Louis to get to 12. The Big East Conference will generate even more revenue for the Fox Sports 1 network it is in partnership with for its current television contract, and FS1 will give the Big East an extra $100 million for adding 2 teams which increase the amount of Big East Conference league games that Fox Sprts 1 can show. So $600 million for the new Big East is not bad at all. How does this impact the Atlantic 10 (hate that name, so dumb) you say? It doesn't really, it just reduces the Atlantic 10 from 13 down to 12 with the addition of Davidson on July 1, 2015. So the Atlantic 10 can finally be renamed the Atlantic 12 and get its **** right.


Now comes the big picture. The Missouri Valley Conference has just lost Missouri State to the Sun Belt on July 1, 2015. Missouri State will play the 2014-2015 season, its last, in the MVC before moving to the Sun Belt. As the Missouri Valley Conference will be projected to have 9 members again for the 2015-2016 season, which it does not like or want, it shall expand (just as it did after losing Creighton).


However, in order to hedge against future realignment, and to increase its TV market footprint, the MVC will not just expand by one to become 10 again, it will expand to 12, which by no coincidence is the same number both the Big East and Atlantic 12 have settled on. The Missouri Valley will invite Milwaukee and Valparaiso from the Horizon League, and Oral Roberts from the Summit. It was Oral Roberts who was preferred by Wichita State over Loyola Chicago when it came to replacing Creighton last summer. This is also the perfect combination of 6 public schools and 6 private schools which is what the Missouri Valley Conference wants as well.


The Horizon League is projected to be at 7 members by July 1, 2015 unless it acts fast. It expands to 10 by inviting Morehead State, which does not sponsor football, from the Ohio Valley Conference for a good basketball team and the Horizon invites both Fort Wayne and Indianapolis to give it a greater presence in the Hoosier state's TV markets.


All this impacts the Summit League greatly because it is projected to be down to 6 members on July 1, 2015 when Oral Roberts leaves the Summit League just one year after its return. The Summit League wants 10 members, because it is constantly being cherry-picked during realignment. Having had enough, the Summit League offers invitations to Chicago State, Kansas City of the WAC, North Dakota of the Big Sky, and SIU-Edwardsville which does not play football from the Ohio Valley. All accept invitations, bringing the Summit League to a stable 10.


So the Summit is at a stable 10, just as the Horizon League is at a stable 10. The Missouri Valley is at a stable 12, and the Atlantic 12 is stable because the Big East is done expanding and is stable at 12. The Ohio Valley Conference is also now at a stable 10, and it hasn't lost any football members so the football membership of the Ohio Valley Conference remains at 9.


The WAC however, is not stable. It has lost Chicago State and Kansas City and is hemorrhaging members. The new University of Texas - Rio Grande Valley was invited to join the Southland Conference to replace Oral Roberts and it accepted. So the Southland is stable at 14 members with football projected to reach 12 when New Orleans begins play for the 2015 football season.


With just 5 members projected to be left by July 1, 2015, the WAC calls Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado and Southern Utah to join the WAC for basketball because the WAC still possesses an autobid to the NCAA tournament. They all agree the Big Sky has gotten too big and is a 1-bid league, so the primary reason is for NAU's, SUU's and Northern Colorado's Olympic sports to save the WAC's autobids with Seattle, Cal State Bakersfield, Grand Canyon, New Mexico State and Utah Valley.


The Big West also has one opening available as it currently has 9 teams. This is an uneven number for travel partners and would be best served with 10 teams and 5 travel pairs. So the Big West invites Sacramento State in order to give UC Davis a travel partner. The WAC has colluded with Cal Poly, Sacramento State, and UC Davis so that if the Big Sky refuses to allow Sacramento State to leave for the Big West and remain as a football-only member, then the CA trio of Big Sky football-only schools will partner with Northern Arizona, Southern Utah, and Northern Colorado to move to the WAC and create an FCS conference there with the 6 minimum teams required. Faced with this threat, the Big Sky allows Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado and Southern Utah to join the WAC; and the Big Sky allows Sacramento State to go to the Big West where it wants to be, because it has long coveted the deal Cal Poly and UC Davis had as Big West members with football in the Big Sky.


In return for its cooperation, the Big Sky invites Seattle U and the WAC allows Seattle U to accept the Big Sky's invitation after the WAC invites Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado and Southern Utah to join the WAC in all sports except football. The WAC does this, because it has a valuable automatic bid to the NCAA tournament and if the Big Sky gobbles up the WAC, then the autobid from the one of the oldest Division 1 basketball conference out West will vanish.


Because of the WAC's FCS football threat, the Big Sky acquiesces to the WAC. After being out-maneuvered by the WAC, which has effectively become the "Big Sky South" the Big Sky can finally become its namesake, a true Pacific Northwestern conference. Seeing how far the WAC has come after outreach by the WAC, Denver re-joins the WAC to fight for a bid to the NCAA tournament.


Furthermore, given that the Summit League has no new travel partner for Denver, the WAC convinces Denver to return to the WAC where Northern Colorado now calls home, and play for an easier autobid to the NCAA tournament, where the Pioneers have never been. Being in the WAC gives Denver a local rivalry and travel partner in Northern Colorado. With the loss of outlier Denver, The Summit League invites Northern Kentucky from the Atlantic Sun who accepts.


and we can all take a breather for now, until futher realignment answers the BYU (and Army, and UMass questions...)


Sun Belt Football Conference - East Division
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Missouri State (from the Missouri Valley Football Conference)
South Alabama
Troy

Sun Belt Football Conference - West Division
Arkansas State
Idaho
Louisiana - Lafayette
Louisiana - Monroe
New Mexico State
Texas State

Sun Belt Conference (12)
Appalachian State
Arkansas - Little Rock
Arkansas State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Louisiana - Lafayette
Louisiana - Monroe
Missouri State (from the Missouri Valley)
South Alabama
Texas - Arlington
Texas State
Troy

The Big East Conference (12)
Butler
Creighton
Dayton (from the A-10)
DePaul
Georgetown
Marquette
Providence
St. John's
St. Louis (from the A-10)
Seton Hall
Villanova
Xavier

Atlantic 12 Conference
Davidson
Duquesne
Fordham
George Mason
George Washington
La Salle
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Richmond
St. Bonaventure
Saint Joseph's
VCU

Missouri Valley Conference (12)
Bradley
Drake
Evansville
Illinois State
Indiana State
Loyola - Chicago
Milwaukee (from the Horizon League)
Northern Iowa
Oral Roberts (from the Summit League)
Southern Illinois
Valparaiso (from the Horizon League)
Wichita State

The Horizon League (10)
Cleveland State
Detroit Mercy
Fort Wayne (from the Summit League)
Green Bay
Illinois - Chicago
Indianapolis (from the Summit League)
Morehead State (from the Ohio Valley)
Oakland
Wright State
Youngstown State

The Summit League (10)
Chicago State (from the WAC)
Kansas City (from the WAC)
North Dakota (from the Big Sky)
North Dakota State
Northern Kentucky (from the Atlantic Sun)
Omaha
South Dakota
South Dakota State
Southern Illinois - Edwardsville (from the Ohio Valley)
Western Illinois

Big West Conference (10)
Cal Poly
Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Northridge
Hawaii
Long Beach State
Sacramento State (from the Big Sky)
UC Davis
UC Irvine
UC Santa Barbara

Western Athletic Conference (8)
Cal State Bakersfield
Denver (from the Summit)
Grand Canyon
New Mexico State
Northern Arizona (from the Big Sky)
Northern Colorado (from the Big Sky)
Southern Utah (from the Big Sky)
Utah Valley

Big Sky Conference (8)
Eastern Washington
Idaho
Idaho State
Montana
Montana State
Portland State
Seattle (from the WAC)
Weber State

Big Sky Football Conference (12)
Cal Poly
Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Montana
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Portland State
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
UC Davis
Weber State

The Southland Conference (14 teams / 12 football)
Abilene Christian
Central Arkansas
Houston Baptist
Incarnate Word
Lamar
McNeese State
New Orleans
Nicholls State
Northwestern State
Sam Houston State
Southeastern Louisiana
Stephen F. Austin State
Texas Rio Grande Valley (from the WAC, does not sponsor football)
Texas A&M Corpus Christi (does not sponsor football)

Ohio Valley Conference (8 football / 10 basketball)
Austin Peay
Belmont (does not play football)
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville State
Lipscomb (from the Atlantic Sun/does not play football)
Murray State
Southeast Missouri State
Tennessee - Martin

Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference (12 football / 14 basketball)
Tennessee Tech (from the Ohio Valley)

Big South Conference (11 basketball teams after July 1, 2015)

Atlantic Sun Conference (6 members after July 1, 2015)
04-12-2014 01:01 PM
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DrGonzo Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
Of course I don't know a thing about the way things are run at Idaho, but I would expect any school to drop football before they would consider dropping down to the FCS.
04-12-2014 01:06 PM
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chrisattsu Offline
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RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
Southland has had their opportunity to take UT-RGV (formerly Pan American) for years. Pan Am made gestures every time expansion came up and the league turned it down at every opportunity.

As for New Orleans football, as far as I have read they just used that as a lie to get into Southland like Corpus did a couple of years ago. They started a club team like UT-Arlington did, but like UTA they have do plans to upgrade to the varsity level.


As for the WAC expansion,
Denver is an academic snob. They wanted out of the WAC when they heard that Grand Canyon (a for profit college) and Utah Valley (a former junior college turned university) were coming on board. I can't believe they would come back now
04-12-2014 01:46 PM
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MissouriStateBears Offline
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RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
After the first 4 paragraphs, it went from believable to what the hell is this dude thinking.
04-12-2014 01:48 PM
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All Dukes_All Day Offline
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RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
He also mentioned that Morehead State doesn't sponsor football, which is 100% inaccurate. They don't sponsor full schollie football, but they still compete at the D1 level.
04-12-2014 01:57 PM
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GaSoEagle Online
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Post: #6
RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
If Missouri St. is the only add to the Sun Belt I would expect they would be placed in the eastern division for football. I don't believe Louisiana or ULM will be moved to the east.
04-12-2014 02:12 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
Wichita State would be very unhappy to be in that MVC if Oral Roberts is its only nearby foe. Plus haven't indications been that they're contracting their footprint to be almost exclusively the three "I" states? If they wanted to placate Wichita, and as it stands now, they really should be doing that, then they should add Omaha instead of Milwaukee even though they're probably not ready just yet.

I doubt the Atlantic 1_ would stand pat if only because standing pat makes it look like they're not going to fight. Problem is, there's no obvious replacements (a lot of us A-10 fans dream of Wichita State, but not if St. Louis and Dayton are gone). I could see them making a go at Belmont, though not to get to 13.

Adding Missouri State doesn't get the Sun Belt to 12 for football purposes until 2016. The eastern schools may or may not be enthralled by adding a west team without also adding an east team (and Appalachian State has been told they will try to find a travel partner for them, thus the JMU/Liberty/Eastern Kentucky chatter). But they'd full-on revolt if Mo State was in their division, I'd think.

Northern Kentucky seems like it'd be more likely to join the Horizon (better league) or the OVC (more regional) than the Summit.

If the A-Sun falls to 6 teams, they're probably done because there's not enough D-IIs that could make the transition in time, plus Florida Gulf Coast probably gets out as dawn's first light.

Why is Tennessee Tech in the MEAC? Tennessee State would be a more natural fit as an HBCU, but they've also never shown any indication that they want to join an HBCU conference (they've turned down the SWAC at every turn). And a Tennessee school would be an island in the Southeast coast-driven MEAC.
04-12-2014 02:26 PM
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GE and MTS Online
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RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
I don't think anyone could know this many things ahead of time. I call bull.
04-12-2014 02:52 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
The funny thing is, some of that is completely believable. Until it got into Big East expansion.

Its long been said that if the MVC lost a team, Oral Roberts would be the next invite. If the MVC did lose Missouri State and raid the Summit...the Summit would certainly respond by raiding the already in dire straights WAC.

The rest of the post is completely off the wall though.
04-12-2014 03:02 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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RE: Acoording to this guy Missouri State will be the only one joining the SBC (very long)
(04-12-2014 02:26 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Wichita State would be very unhappy to be in that MVC if Oral Roberts is its only nearby foe. Plus haven't indications been that they're contracting their footprint to be almost exclusively the three "I" states? If they wanted to placate Wichita, and as it stands now, they really should be doing that, then they should add Omaha instead of Milwaukee even though they're probably not ready just yet.

I doubt the Atlantic 1_ would stand pat if only because standing pat makes it look like they're not going to fight. Problem is, there's no obvious replacements (a lot of us A-10 fans dream of Wichita State, but not if St. Louis and Dayton are gone). I could see them making a go at Belmont, though not to get to 13.

Adding Missouri State doesn't get the Sun Belt to 12 for football purposes until 2016. The eastern schools may or may not be enthralled by adding a west team without also adding an east team (and Appalachian State has been told they will try to find a travel partner for them, thus the JMU/Liberty/Eastern Kentucky chatter). But they'd full-on revolt if Mo State was in their division, I'd think.

Northern Kentucky seems like it'd be more likely to join the Horizon (better league) or the OVC (more regional) than the Summit.

If the A-Sun falls to 6 teams, they're probably done because there's not enough D-IIs that could make the transition in time, plus Florida Gulf Coast probably gets out as dawn's first light.

Why is Tennessee Tech in the MEAC? Tennessee State would be a more natural fit as an HBCU, but they've also never shown any indication that they want to join an HBCU conference (they've turned down the SWAC at every turn). And a Tennessee school would be an island in the Southeast coast-driven MEAC.

The SBC will most likely not use divisions for Olympic Sports. This invite isn't about divisions as much as it is finding the right fit. A travel partner for App would be nice, but even the East schools would acknowledge Idaho probably wont last more than 4 years, at which point we could then pick up a few more available East candidates.
04-12-2014 03:05 PM
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