There are 35 bowls, which makes 70 bowl slots available.

Currently there are 58 bowl eligible teams, 3 from the SBC.

That leaves 12 more spots needing to be filled. There are still 38 teams still mathematically eligible to become bowl eligible. 16 teams are only one win away.

Recap, the SBC is looking at a two bowl game season this year. Not looking good for the home conference.

Hopefully some games fall the right way for us and we get a third, if not fourth team, but it's a big uphill battle right now.

That's an oversimplified account. The big factors are which conference can't meet their tie-ins, which have just enough, which are going to BCS games and of the leftover teams, which ones are attractive to bowl committees. Sorry, but a 6-6 FAU team will not get an unaffiliated bowl invite, but a 8-4 SBC team might.

AAC-5.5 tie-ins, four team bowl eligible (BE), 2 not BE, 1 team at 5 wins, 2 teams with 6 losses
ACC-8 tie-ins, 6 BE, 1 NBE, 4 at 5 wins, 2 at 6 losses
Big 10-8 tie-ins, 7 BE, 2 NBE, no eligible 5-win teams, 1 at 6 losses
Big 12-7 tie-ins, 5 BE, 2 NBE, 1 at 5 wins, 2 at 6 losses
C-USA-5.5 tie-ins, 6 BE, 5NBE, 1 at 5 wins, 1 at 6 losses
Indy - Notre Dame (no specific tie-in), BYU eligible, Navy 5-4, Army NBE
MAC-3 tie-ins, 6 BE, 6NBE, 1 at 6 losses
MWC-7 tie-ins, 3 BE, 3 NBE, 4 at 5 wins, 1 at 6 losses
Pac-12-7 tie-ins, 8 BE, 2 NBE, no teams with 5 wins or 6 losses
SEC-10 tie-ins, 8 BE, 2NBE, 1 at 5 wins, 1 at 6 losses
SBC-2 tie-ins, 3 BE, 1 NBE, 3 at 5 wins, none at 6 loses

Assuming current BCS stanings hold (from 11-3) and that's a big if obviously, Alabama and FSU play in the NC game and Fresno gets a BCS invite. That would leave the SEC and ACC with two BCS bids. Depending on how far #3 Oregon falls from its loss to #5 Stanford, the Pac 12 might get the last at-large bid Oklahoma or Okie State could make the other, since there is no BCS standings pecking order. It won't be the SEC or ACC, since they'd already have two. If the Pac-12 gets the second, then they will not have any teams needing an unaffiliated bowl invite (I don't think their currently not BE teams will get there). If it is the Big 12, then they will have two bowls needing a team to fill, as I don't think they fill all their slots.

Meanwhile, the AAC should fill all their spots and no more. C-USA could do the same or maybe have a surplus if FAU runs the table. It is possible that the Big 10 will miss one. Certainly Army won't make theirs. The SEC looks like it will need one spot filled if Alabama makes the NC and another goes to the Sugar. Only the MAC has a clear surplus of teams versus tie-ins and that will be the SBC's biggest competitor.

If the Big 10 doesn't fill its spot, the SBC will go back to Detroit. If that scenario happens along with one SEC shortage, there is a great possibility of four SBC teams bowling again. As it is, not getting three seems highly unlikely.



Someone with a little more time wrote all this, I stole it.

And yes, I know who it was.

Unless two of Vandy, Tenn, Miss St get eligible
Vandy has to win one of (Florida, Tenn, Wake Forest)
Tennessee has to win out (Vandy and at UK)
Miss St. has to win (Alabama, at Ark, Ole Miss)

Shreveport is going to be open.

(11-10-2013 11:41 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unless two of Vandy, Tenn, Miss St get eligible
Vandy has to win one of (Florida, Tenn, Wake Forest)
Tennessee has to win out (Vandy and at UK)
Miss St. has to win (Alabama, at Ark, Ole Miss)

Shreveport is going to be open.

If this is the case, I wouldn't worry about making a bowl if I were stAte. If stAte is bowl eligible and aren't going Godaddy, then I think Indy will salivate over them even should ULM be available. I'm really not trying to bag on ULM, but stAte will bring a better brand for bowl commitees and a very good fanbase and I think that will be stAte's destination.

Looks certain that ACC will have enough teams for Shreveport this year. I wouldn't rule out the Cajuns trying to go there if they win out. Defeating an ACC would go further toward getting ranked.

(11-10-2013 12:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Looks certain that ACC will have enough teams for Shreveport this year. I wouldn't rule out the Cajuns trying to go there if they win out. Defeating an ACC would go further toward getting ranked.

Man, I didn't think about that, that would be super interesting and would be a much better opponent than Tulame by a mile.

SEC is complex, but I like our Indy bowl chances. Ironically Georgia Southern could help us here by overcoming all 200 injured scholarship players and beating Florida, or we could just hope South Carolina and Florida State beat them...whichever works. Vandy beating Tennessee would limit the SEC to 10 bowl teams max, and they would only have 9 if Miss State loses to Ole Miss. Or if one of Tennessee or Miss State gets eligible, we could hope the SEC gets a 2nd BCS berth. This is a lock if Bama loses to either Auburn or in the SEC Title game, or we'll have to sweat it out.

In the Big 10, we're good at a Detroit spot if Northwestern loses Two out of its last three (Home vs Michigan and Michigan State, At Illinois) This assumes that Ohio State will beat Illinois this week...which should happen.

Karl Benson would be a smart cookie if he was on the phone with the Independence Bowl working out a backup deal in the next bowl cycle. You have to think they aren't happy that Neck screwed with them, and frankly odds are decent the SEC struggles to get 10 eligible several times in this next cycle.

(11-10-2013 12:29 PM)Tuffguy21 Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 12:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Looks certain that ACC will have enough teams for Shreveport this year. I wouldn't rule out the Cajuns trying to go there if they win out. Defeating an ACC would go further toward getting ranked.

Man, I didn't think about that, that would be super interesting and would be a much better opponent than Tulame by a mile.

Pretty much the SBC bowl scenarios this year involve everyone fighting over the Cajuns, and the rest of us being taken because we'll travel.

It would be best for the SBC if the Cajuns were to take an I bowl spot. It would open up New Orleans and Mobile to take Texas State and ASU and allow WKU to go to Detroit in peace (Or for Benson to screw WKU and send a 6 win USA or ULM to Mobile, Woot)

We all have to make sacrifices for the good of the league sometimes Cajun fans.

(11-10-2013 12:38 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 12:29 PM)Tuffguy21 Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 12:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Looks certain that ACC will have enough teams for Shreveport this year. I wouldn't rule out the Cajuns trying to go there if they win out. Defeating an ACC would go further toward getting ranked.

Man, I didn't think about that, that would be super interesting and would be a much better opponent than Tulame by a mile.

Pretty much the SBC bowl scenarios this year involve everyone fighting over the Cajuns, and the rest of us being taken because we'll travel.

It would be best for the SBC if the Cajuns were to take an I bowl spot. It would open up New Orleans and Mobile to take Texas State and ASU and allow WKU to go to Detroit in peace (Or for Benson to screw WKU and send a 6 win USA or ULM to Mobile, Woot)

We all have to make sacrifices for the good of the league sometimes Cajun fans.

If USA gets to 6 wins then it's very possible the GoDaddy would take USA, and it'd have nothing to do with Benson.

Adding my analysis that I posted on the CUSA board.

Refreshed my look at bowl eligibility after yesterday's games. Yesterday had a few notable results, the big one being Vandy over Florida, which puts Florida projected as 'out' at the moment. See below for the projected number of teams eligible by conference, the slots that will be open, and the extra teams left to fill them. The number of slots is based upon who is likely to fill the at large slots in the BCS plus the conference's normal tie ins.

SEC (10 for 11 slots) - 8 already in, Vandy likely in. Tennessee is the wild card as they must beat Vandy. If they do not, Birmingham will be open as well.

Big 12 (7 for 7 slots) - 5 already in, Kansas State a lock. West Virginia likely in as well.

Big 10 (8 for 8 slots) - 7 already in. Northwestern has to beat two out of Illinois, Michigan St, Michigan to get in. If not, Detroit will be open. Illinois/Indiana likely out.

Pac 12 (9 for 8 slots) - 8 already in. Utah and Wazzu have a chance. Projecting only one in for now.

ACC (10 for 9 slots) - This is the wild card. 6 already in, and 7 more have a chance.

AAC (5 for 6 slots) - 4 already in. Rutgers basically a lock. SMU not likely.

MWC (7 for 7 slots) - 3 in. 5 more with a legit chance.

Sun Belt (5 for 2 slots) - Plenty of parity. Looks like 5 will make it. Troy will not.

MAC (7 for 3 slots) - 6 in. CMU is likely in but it won't matter.

CUSA (7 for 6 slots) - 6 already in. FAU and LA Tech both have legit chances. UTSA is not eligible this season.

Indy (3 for 3 slots) - Notre Dame is in without a bowl tie anywhere. Navy will be in. BYU is in. Army's slot in Poinsettia is up for grabs.


Overall projected number of eligible teams: 78

Extra Bowl Slots

Poinsettia (Army's slot vs. MWC #2)
Beef O Brady's (AAC's slot vs. CUSA)
Advocare v100 (SEC's slot vs. ACC #7)

Extra Teams
Notre Dame
Pac 12
ACC
Sun Belt
Sun Belt
Sun Belt
MAC
MAC
MAC
MAC
CUSA

So there you go, there will likely only be 3 extra slots open for at large teams, and there will be enough Power 5 schools to fill them, so the extra Sun Belt/CUSA/MAC schools will be left out to dry. As mentioned above, Tennessee losing to Vanderbilt/Kentucky will likely open up BBVA in Birmingham, so all of us should cheer against UTK for the rest of the season. Miss State could ruin that party if they upset Ole Miss. The ACC could come up with a few more teams as well. Detroit will be open unless Northwestern comes up with two wins.

(11-10-2013 12:38 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 12:29 PM)Tuffguy21 Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 12:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Looks certain that ACC will have enough teams for Shreveport this year. I wouldn't rule out the Cajuns trying to go there if they win out. Defeating an ACC would go further toward getting ranked.

Man, I didn't think about that, that would be super interesting and would be a much better opponent than Tulame by a mile.

Pretty much the SBC bowl scenarios this year involve everyone fighting over the Cajuns, and the rest of us being taken because we'll travel.

It would be best for the SBC if the Cajuns were to take an I bowl spot. It would open up New Orleans and Mobile to take Texas State and ASU and allow WKU to go to Detroit in peace (Or for Benson to screw WKU and send a 6 win USA or ULM to Mobile, Woot)

We all have to make sacrifices for the good of the league sometimes Cajun fans.

If you ask many of us, UL has made enough sacrifices for the Sun Belt Conference office in recent years. Benson isn't very popular with our fan base right now and our home schedule didn't endear him to our football staff. I realize our AD Scott Farmer and President had to agree with that request, but it certainly didn't help us financially.

If playing in the Independence Bowl means an opportunity to play a good ACC program as ArkStfan stated and Coach Hudspeth wanted that matchup, then I have no problem with it. Otherwise unless the Sun Belt Conference is willing to add some financial incentive to the pot after UL lost one home game this season, our decision makers get paid to do what is in the best interest of our program, not the conference.

(11-10-2013 12:58 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Adding my analysis that I posted on the CUSA board.

Refreshed my look at bowl eligibility after yesterday's games. Yesterday had a few notable results, the big one being Vandy over Florida, which puts Florida projected as 'out' at the moment. See below for the projected number of teams eligible by conference, the slots that will be open, and the extra teams left to fill them. The number of slots is based upon who is likely to fill the at large slots in the BCS plus the conference's normal tie ins.

SEC (10 for 11 slots) - 8 already in, Vandy likely in. Tennessee is the wild card as they must beat Vandy. If they do not, Birmingham will be open as well.

Big 12 (7 for 7 slots) - 5 already in, Kansas State a lock. West Virginia likely in as well.

Big 10 (8 for 8 slots) - 7 already in. Northwestern has to beat two out of Illinois, Michigan St, Michigan to get in. If not, Detroit will be open. Illinois/Indiana likely out.

Pac 12 (9 for 8 slots) - 8 already in. Utah and Wazzu have a chance. Projecting only one in for now.

ACC (10 for 9 slots) - This is the wild card. 6 already in, and 7 more have a chance.

AAC (5 for 6 slots) - 4 already in. Rutgers basically a lock. SMU not likely.

MWC (7 for 7 slots) - 3 in. 5 more with a legit chance.

Sun Belt (5 for 2 slots) - Plenty of parity. Looks like 5 will make it. Troy will not.

MAC (7 for 3 slots) - 6 in. CMU is likely in but it won't matter.

CUSA (7 for 6 slots) - 6 already in. FAU and LA Tech both have legit chances. UTSA is not eligible this season.

Indy (3 for 3 slots) - Notre Dame is in without a bowl tie anywhere. Navy will be in. BYU is in. Army's slot in Poinsettia is up for grabs.


Overall projected number of eligible teams: 78

Extra Bowl Slots

Poinsettia (Army's slot vs. MWC #2)
Beef O Brady's (AAC's slot vs. CUSA)
Advocare v100 (SEC's slot vs. ACC #7)

Extra Teams
Notre Dame
Pac 12
ACC
Sun Belt
Sun Belt
Sun Belt
MAC
MAC
MAC
MAC
CUSA

So there you go, there will likely only be 3 extra slots open for at large teams, and there will be enough Power 5 schools to fill them, so the extra Sun Belt/CUSA/MAC schools will be left out to dry. As mentioned above, Tennessee losing to Vanderbilt/Kentucky will likely open up BBVA in Birmingham, so all of us should cheer against UTK for the rest of the season. Miss State could ruin that party if they upset Ole Miss. The ACC could come up with a few more teams as well. Detroit will be open unless Northwestern comes up with two wins.

I really don't see Northwestern beating both Michigan or Michigan State...especially while on a 5 game losing streak. That leaves Detroit open, and the SBC has the backup in Detroit.

(11-10-2013 12:58 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Adding my analysis that I posted on the CUSA board.

Refreshed my look at bowl eligibility after yesterday's games. Yesterday had a few notable results, the big one being Vandy over Florida, which puts Florida projected as 'out' at the moment. See below for the projected number of teams eligible by conference, the slots that will be open, and the extra teams left to fill them. The number of slots is based upon who is likely to fill the at large slots in the BCS plus the conference's normal tie ins.

SEC (10 for 11 slots) - 8 already in, Vandy likely in. Tennessee is the wild card as they must beat Vandy. If they do not, Birmingham will be open as well.

Big 12 (7 for 7 slots) - 5 already in, Kansas State a lock. West Virginia likely in as well.

Big 10 (8 for 8 slots) - 7 already in. Northwestern has to beat two out of Illinois, Michigan St, Michigan to get in. If not, Detroit will be open. Illinois/Indiana likely out.

Pac 12 (9 for 8 slots) - 8 already in. Utah and Wazzu have a chance. Projecting only one in for now.

ACC (10 for 9 slots) - This is the wild card. 6 already in, and 7 more have a chance.

AAC (5 for 6 slots) - 4 already in. Rutgers basically a lock. SMU not likely.

MWC (7 for 7 slots) - 3 in. 5 more with a legit chance.

Sun Belt (5 for 2 slots) - Plenty of parity. Looks like 5 will make it. Troy will not.

MAC (7 for 3 slots) - 6 in. CMU is likely in but it won't matter.

CUSA (7 for 6 slots) - 6 already in. FAU and LA Tech both have legit chances. UTSA is not eligible this season.

Indy (3 for 3 slots) - Notre Dame is in without a bowl tie anywhere. Navy will be in. BYU is in. Army's slot in Poinsettia is up for grabs.


Overall projected number of eligible teams: 78

Extra Bowl Slots

Poinsettia (Army's slot vs. MWC #2)
Beef O Brady's (AAC's slot vs. CUSA)
Advocare v100 (SEC's slot vs. ACC #7)

Extra Teams
Notre Dame
Pac 12
ACC
Sun Belt
Sun Belt
Sun Belt
MAC
MAC
MAC
MAC
CUSA

So there you go, there will likely only be 3 extra slots open for at large teams, and there will be enough Power 5 schools to fill them, so the extra Sun Belt/CUSA/MAC schools will be left out to dry. As mentioned above, Tennessee losing to Vanderbilt/Kentucky will likely open up BBVA in Birmingham, so all of us should cheer against UTK for the rest of the season. Miss State could ruin that party if they upset Ole Miss. The ACC could come up with a few more teams as well. Detroit will be open unless Northwestern comes up with two wins.

I agree with the SEC, but I don't think the Big 10 fills theirs, nor do I think the Big 12 gets theirs. WV isn't that great at 4-6 and Iowa State isn't that bad as their record. Baylor looks to be the BCS chance out of that league. With the SEC and ACC getting into the championship game, the next highest BCS team is either a Pac 12 or a Big 12. If Pac 12, then they won't fill any other spot. If it is a Big 12, at least one spot opens up and maybe two if WV can't win out.

BTW, Navy isn't a lock either. They are likely in, but nothing guarantees it.

It seems your predictions miss the point that there are two at-larges for the NC game and two at-larges for the remaining four BCS bowls. The MWC will have an open slot if Fresno goes. If Fresno drops and NI is in, then it really changes the trickle down of the bowls. If Oregon doesn't drop too far from their loss to Stanford, they could be in. Those two at-larges really make the whole picture change by changing one team.

Two Pac 12 would prevent an extra Pac 12 tie in, That would be best for us. I really don't see any way they don't get two BCS teams though. Oregon won't drop very far and Stanford should get a 2nd bid.

^Agreed. At this point, I put Stanford in the Rose against Ohio State, Oregon in the Orange against Clemson, Fresno in the Fiesta against Baylor and Auburn in the Sugar against Central Florida.

Of course, all this could change if one game doesn't go, so in the end, it is worth less than the non-existent paper it is written on.

(11-10-2013 02:24 PM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  ^Agreed. At this point, I put Stanford in the Rose against Ohio State, Oregon in the Orange against Clemson, Fresno in the Fiesta against Baylor and Auburn in the Sugar against Central Florida.

Of course, all this could change if one game doesn't go, so in the end, it is worth less than the non-existent paper it is written on.

Malzahn has to be in serious consideration for National Coach of the year at Auburn after that turn around. They went from 0-8 in the SEC to playing for a BCS bid the next two weeks.

(11-10-2013 11:41 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unless two of Vandy, Tenn, Miss St get eligible
Vandy has to win one of (Florida, Tenn, Wake Forest)
Tennessee has to win out (Vandy and at UK)
Miss St. has to win (Alabama, at Ark, Ole Miss)

Shreveport is going to be open.

Vanderbilt beat Florida yesterday and are eligible. Everyone should be pulling for Vandy to beat UT.

Edit: Whoops I forgot they had not played the UK game yet. So they got to get a win.

(11-10-2013 02:05 PM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 12:58 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Adding my analysis that I posted on the CUSA board.

Refreshed my look at bowl eligibility after yesterday's games. Yesterday had a few notable results, the big one being Vandy over Florida, which puts Florida projected as 'out' at the moment. See below for the projected number of teams eligible by conference, the slots that will be open, and the extra teams left to fill them. The number of slots is based upon who is likely to fill the at large slots in the BCS plus the conference's normal tie ins.

SEC (10 for 11 slots) - 8 already in, Vandy likely in. Tennessee is the wild card as they must beat Vandy. If they do not, Birmingham will be open as well.

Big 12 (7 for 7 slots) - 5 already in, Kansas State a lock. West Virginia likely in as well.

Big 10 (8 for 8 slots) - 7 already in. Northwestern has to beat two out of Illinois, Michigan St, Michigan to get in. If not, Detroit will be open. Illinois/Indiana likely out.

Pac 12 (9 for 8 slots) - 8 already in. Utah and Wazzu have a chance. Projecting only one in for now.

ACC (10 for 9 slots) - This is the wild card. 6 already in, and 7 more have a chance.

AAC (5 for 6 slots) - 4 already in. Rutgers basically a lock. SMU not likely.

MWC (7 for 7 slots) - 3 in. 5 more with a legit chance.

Sun Belt (5 for 2 slots) - Plenty of parity. Looks like 5 will make it. Troy will not.

MAC (7 for 3 slots) - 6 in. CMU is likely in but it won't matter.

CUSA (7 for 6 slots) - 6 already in. FAU and LA Tech both have legit chances. UTSA is not eligible this season.

Indy (3 for 3 slots) - Notre Dame is in without a bowl tie anywhere. Navy will be in. BYU is in. Army's slot in Poinsettia is up for grabs.


Overall projected number of eligible teams: 78

Extra Bowl Slots

Poinsettia (Army's slot vs. MWC #2)
Beef O Brady's (AAC's slot vs. CUSA)
Advocare v100 (SEC's slot vs. ACC #7)

Extra Teams
Notre Dame
Pac 12
ACC
Sun Belt
Sun Belt
Sun Belt
MAC
MAC
MAC
MAC
CUSA

So there you go, there will likely only be 3 extra slots open for at large teams, and there will be enough Power 5 schools to fill them, so the extra Sun Belt/CUSA/MAC schools will be left out to dry. As mentioned above, Tennessee losing to Vanderbilt/Kentucky will likely open up BBVA in Birmingham, so all of us should cheer against UTK for the rest of the season. Miss State could ruin that party if they upset Ole Miss. The ACC could come up with a few more teams as well. Detroit will be open unless Northwestern comes up with two wins.

I agree with the SEC, but I don't think the Big 10 fills theirs, nor do I think the Big 12 gets theirs. WV isn't that great at 4-6 and Iowa State isn't that bad as their record. Baylor looks to be the BCS chance out of that league. With the SEC and ACC getting into the championship game, the next highest BCS team is either a Pac 12 or a Big 12. If Pac 12, then they won't fill any other spot. If it is a Big 12, at least one spot opens up and maybe two if WV can't win out.

BTW, Navy isn't a lock either. They are likely in, but nothing guarantees it.

It seems your predictions miss the point that there are two at-larges for the NC game and two at-larges for the remaining four BCS bowls. The MWC will have an open slot if Fresno goes. If Fresno drops and NI is in, then it really changes the trickle down of the bowls. If Oregon doesn't drop too far from their loss to Stanford, they could be in. Those two at-larges really make the whole picture change by changing one team.

Called it. Just can't predict bowl slots until the season is over.