I don't think there was actually ever a chance for Notre Dame to go with us quite frankly. Not just with the football bowl situation(which was very real) but also the fact that if they had gone with us, it would have been such a narrow conference(would have been from DePaul/Marquette on the west, with no Creighton) and then east- but no further south than DC.
Anyone thinking that Dayton does not remain a strong expansion candidate only has to look at all of the pomp and circumstance at Media Day. The next time this group will come together again will be in March at the Big East Tournament. Ticket sales have to be on everyone's mind.
Last year the Big East Tournament averaged 20,000 attendance per session. Contrast that with the conference's worst nightmare , which was the 6,000 in attendance per session that the Atlantic Ten generated across the river at the Barclay Center last year. Two of the 3 new members are coming from that conference. Creighton is used to bigger tournament turnouts than that. The Missouri Valley tournament averaged 14,000 last year. If the new Big East doesn't sell out the Garden in March, expansion will become something to accomplish sooner rather than later. As in NOW.
Looking at the candidates in terms of potential ticket sales, here's how their home attendance last year compared:
12,400 - Dayton
7,693 - VCU
7,673 - St Louis
5960 - Richmond
Factor in location and Dayton brings the advantage of being the farthest east of any of the Midwest members of the conference, 360 miles closet than St Louis. Which fans are more likely to show up in MSG at tournament time?
Obviously performance on the court is the #1 factor, followed closely by TV ratings and TV market. Then there's institutional fit. Right up there with all of those is the Big East Tournament, the center piece of the conference season. It is far easier to sell a tournament to TV that fills the building with 20,000 fans and is a happening in Midtown than it is to sell one which turns out 6,000 fans as the A10 did. So, tournament ticket sales and TV are related.
Dayton is bringing in a lot of talent this year, starting with Ohio State transfer and former 5-star recruit Jordan Sibert. Behind him are two 4-star freshmen recruits, Kyle Davis and Dayshon Smith. College Sports Madness projects Dayton as an NCAA tournament team this year. Everyone seems to be conceding the #11 spot in expansion to St Louis, but events could conspire to move Dayton up the list. If St Louis falters and Dayton has a big year, their attendance and location will be very attractive if ticket sales at the tournament decline even a little bit.
All good points, but I would also point out that Dayton didn't show up at the A-10 tournament. Their attendance is very impressive at home, but they did not travel well to NYC at all. Then again most schools several hundred miles away would be hard-pressed to show up in force.
There are compelling reasons to add Dayton, their fan base shoring up attendance in MSG just isn't one of them
(10-17-2013 07:19 AM)VCUfan Wrote: All good points, but I would also point out that Dayton didn't show up at the A-10 tournament. Their attendance is very impressive at home, but they did not travel well to NYC at all. Then again most schools several hundred miles away would be hard-pressed to show up in force.
There are compelling reasons to add Dayton, their fan base shoring up attendance in MSG just isn't one of them
I understand that the A10 as a whole did not represent itself well at Barclay last year.
It was also not a particularly good good Dayton team, which was gone from the tournament on the first day. Not much was expected of them, so it's asking a lot for their fans to travel a long way just to see their team eliminated on opening day in brooklyn.
However, put the tournament in Manhattan, the nation's #1 tourist mecca. Play it against the glamour of Big East competition. Do it a year when Dayton has a competitive team with hopes of something to play for like an NCAA bid on the one, hopes for a conference championship. Given a fan base that rabid, I think they will turn out.
Historically, Dayton has traveled well when they've had good teams, which admittedly not been the case for a long time. The issue with location is that distance creates an obstacle to overcome for fans to get to the tournament. Living in Connecticut, I can hop in my car and drive a couple of hours to the Big East tournament, which I've done many times. As a UConn fan, am I flying to Memphis for the AAC tournament? I'm going to have to think long and hard about that one.
So, when I look at Dayton's location, I see less of an obstacle for their fans to overcome to get to the Garden than for the fans of St Louis, who aren't as rabid as the Dayton fans in the first place. To get good prices on plane tickets, you have to plan in advance. But if a destination is drivable, last minute decisions are possible. Dayton is a day's drive from Manhattan. St Louis is not practical for driving to manhattan any more than Memphis is from connecticut.
Fact is though Dayton fails your #1 criteria: Performance on the court.
I don't think there is a single school in the nation that has done less with more in the last 30 years than UD. They have tremendous tremendous fan support. As you said 12,000+ every single home game, and in the past they have traveled well to various off site tournaments.
Could they be good this year? Of course. They have a lot of the pieces in place. But over the last 30 years they've had plenty of great players and good teams but have not been able to put it together.
I'm selfish. I don't want to compete with Dayton for recruits (but we never really did in the A10 anyway) and I want to be the only BE school in Ohio.
I want to continue the rivalry with UD but in OOC.
I absolutely LOVE the idea of Round Robin playing each team twice. It allows you to get to know each team that much more.
Man I am so excited about the Big East. Watching Media Day yesterday all of the coaches are pumped up and the other thing is they all really want this league and the teams in this league to succeed.
(10-17-2013 08:11 AM)Milhouse08 Wrote: Melky, you make some great points.
Fact is though Dayton fails your #1 criteria: Performance on the court.
I don't think there is a single school in the nation that has done less with more in the last 30 years than UD. They have tremendous tremendous fan support. As you said 12,000+ every single home game, and in the past they have traveled well to various off site tournaments.
Could they be good this year? Of course. They have a lot of the pieces in place. But over the last 30 years they've had plenty of great players and good teams but have not been able to put it together.
I'm selfish. I don't want to compete with Dayton for recruits (but we never really did in the A10 anyway) and I want to be the only BE school in Ohio.
I want to continue the rivalry with UD but in OOC.
I absolutely LOVE the idea of Round Robin playing each team twice. It allows you to get to know each team that much more.
Man I am so excited about the Big East. Watching Media Day yesterday all of the coaches are pumped up and the other thing is they all really want this league and the teams in this league to succeed.
Gonna be a great year. :)
Can't argue with anything you say. Dayton has not been on my radar at all for exactly the reasons you present.
The thought of a Big East tournament in a Garden that's half empty has me nervous. With so many teams from the East now missing as well as a Notre Dame team that always draws fans in NY, it's going to make ticket sales harder.
I too am a big proponent of 10 teams with double round robin. That's going to place a burden on each of these teams to get their fans to show up. I know that those on the Eastern corridor will respond; I don't know if those from the Midwest will show up. They didn't for the A10. Creighton is an unknown. They have the most rabid fans, but the longest distance to travel.
The problem with 10 teams is it'd get pretty easy if you have a league with a ton of parity to have a bunch of 10-8 teams. If that happens, and the OOC schedules aren't great for those 10-8 teams, you could easily wind up with only 3 tourney teams.
I really don't see us staying at 10 beyond the 2014-15 season at the latest. I think Fox puts a lot of pressure on us to get up to 12.
(10-17-2013 07:19 AM)VCUfan Wrote: All good points, but I would also point out that Dayton didn't show up at the A-10 tournament. Their attendance is very impressive at home, but they did not travel well to NYC at all. Then again most schools several hundred miles away would be hard-pressed to show up in force.
There are compelling reasons to add Dayton, their fan base shoring up attendance in MSG just isn't one of them
I understand that the A10 as a whole did not represent itself well at Barclay last year.
It was also not a particularly good good Dayton team, which was gone from the tournament on the first day. Not much was expected of them, so it's asking a lot for their fans to travel a long way just to see their team eliminated on opening day in brooklyn.
However, put the tournament in Manhattan, the nation's #1 tourist mecca. Play it against the glamour of Big East competition. Do it a year when Dayton has a competitive team with hopes of something to play for like an NCAA bid on the one, hopes for a conference championship. Given a fan base that rabid, I think they will turn out.
Historically, Dayton has traveled well when they've had good teams, which admittedly not been the case for a long time. The issue with location is that distance creates an obstacle to overcome for fans to get to the tournament. Living in Connecticut, I can hop in my car and drive a couple of hours to the Big East tournament, which I've done many times. As a UConn fan, am I flying to Memphis for the AAC tournament? I'm going to have to think long and hard about that one.
So, when I look at Dayton's location, I see less of an obstacle for their fans to overcome to get to the Garden than for the fans of St Louis, who aren't as rabid as the Dayton fans in the first place. To get good prices on plane tickets, you have to plan in advance. But if a destination is drivable, last minute decisions are possible. Dayton is a day's drive from Manhattan. St Louis is not practical for driving to manhattan any more than Memphis is from connecticut.
You're presupposing that Dayton will be competitive enough in the Big East not to be bounced on the first day of the tournament most years. Given the last 30 years or so, you're probably being overly optimistic.
I guess this year should be telling as to how UD's fan base travels as they're expected to be better this year.
Last year no one really showed up but VCU fans, and that includes Xavier's and Butler's fan bases. X's fans didn't show up all that much in Atlantic City either even when their teams were good as I understand it. That's not a slight to them, it's a whole lot farther for them to travel. The reality is that those midwest schools that don't have Big East tradition aren't going to bring that many fans. Packing an arena in your city is fine, travelling several hundred miles when you're a bottom half Big East team is a different matter.
Yep. VCU did show up (at least relative to the other A-10 schools and considering we're 350 miles away). I was actually a little surprised closer schools like UMass, St. Joe's, and La Salle didn't bring more fans. That was very disappointing.
I never completely understood why fans would leave after their team is eliminated in the tourney. I mean, I get it, their favorite team isn't playing any more. But the remaining tourney games-- why would you bail on those?
It's like leaving an All-Star Game because you're a Padre fan, and Johnny Grubb has already been used in the 3rd inning, and you don't feel like sticking around and watching Bench, Rose, Yaz, Reggie, Brett, Palmer and Seaver (not to mention the young Fidrych types). And that's what the Big East tournament is like... if PC is eliminated in the quarters, why would I walk out on semi-finals that might match McDermott vs Sampson, which might be followed with Davante Gardner vs Semaj, Georgetown vs Villanova, etc...? JTiii, Wright, Buzz, Lavin, etc...
I go back to 1980... the first BET was in Providence... PC lost the first game in the quarters on the first afternoon. We couldn't wait to return for the evening games and the semis the next day to see Sleepy Floyd, Louie and Bouie, Corny Thompson, Dan Calandrillo, plus the coaches in addition to those players-- all under the same roof within 48 hours..! We have the same dynamic today in 2013 with both coaches and players in the Big East.
Anyway, I can't imagine that we will have attendance problems in MSG... not to mention, local fans of former Big East teams (SU and ND in particular) will want to continue their annual pilgrimages to MSG to meet with friends.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2013 10:46 AM by billyjack.)
(10-17-2013 09:48 AM)stever20 Wrote: The problem with 10 teams is it'd get pretty easy if you have a league with a ton of parity to have a bunch of 10-8 teams. If that happens, and the OOC schedules aren't great for those 10-8 teams, you could easily wind up with only 3 tourney teams.
I really don't see us staying at 10 beyond the 2014-15 season at the latest. I think Fox puts a lot of pressure on us to get up to 12.
If we get a bunch of 10-8 teams, that's basically our dream scenario where we'll get 7 teams in the NCAAs.
(10-17-2013 09:48 AM)stever20 Wrote: The problem with 10 teams is it'd get pretty easy if you have a league with a ton of parity to have a bunch of 10-8 teams. If that happens, and the OOC schedules aren't great for those 10-8 teams, you could easily wind up with only 3 tourney teams.
I really don't see us staying at 10 beyond the 2014-15 season at the latest. I think Fox puts a lot of pressure on us to get up to 12.
If we get a bunch of 10-8 teams, that's basically our dream scenario where we'll get 7 teams in the NCAAs.
If we got a bunch of 10-8 teams, first off the bottom 3 teams would have to be almost at like 2-3 wins each(with all against each other).
Also, the teams at 10-8 in conference play would have to have gone at least 9-4 in OOC play to be even 19-12. That's bubble team all the way. If it's a poor OOC schedule, probably would have to have gone at least 11-2 to make it.
what we don't want is a year like 2010-11 MVC
15-3
14-4
12-6
10-8
10-8
9-9
8-10
3 teams in pretty easily. The 2 10-8 teams will have to have had a solid OOC schedule and done ok with it. The 9-9 and 8-10 teams are in trouble.
(10-17-2013 10:44 AM)billyjack Wrote: I never completely understood why fans would leave after their team is eliminated in the tourney. I mean, I get it, their favorite team isn't playing any more. But the remaining tourney games-- why would you bail on those?
It's like leaving an All-Star Game because you're a Padre fan, and Johnny Grubb has already been used in the 3rd inning, and you don't feel like sticking around and watching Bench, Rose, Yaz, Reggie, Brett, Palmer and Seaver (not to mention the young Fidrych types). And that's what the Big East tournament is like... if PC is eliminated in the quarters, why would I walk out on semi-finals that might match McDermott vs Sampson, which might be followed with Davante Gardner vs Semaj, Georgetown vs Villanova, etc...? JTiii, Wright, Buzz, Lavin, etc...
I go back to 1980... the first BET was in Providence... PC lost the first game in the quarters on the first afternoon. We couldn't wait to return for the evening games and the semis the next day to see Sleepy Floyd, Louie and Bouie, Corny Thompson, Dan Calandrillo, plus the coaches in addition to those players-- all under the same roof within 48 hours..! We have the same dynamic today in 2013 with both coaches and players in the Big East.
Anyway, I can't imagine that we will have attendance problems in MSG... not to mention, local fans of former Big East teams (SU and ND in particular) will want to continue their annual pilgrimages to MSG to meet with friends.
I went one time when Marquette had the double-bye. Watched every game, even though Marquette lost their only game. It was a great time. Hope to get back. I don't understand why you would make the trip to NYC only to leave after your team loses.
(10-17-2013 07:19 AM)VCUfan Wrote: All good points, but I would also point out that Dayton didn't show up at the A-10 tournament. Their attendance is very impressive at home, but they did not travel well to NYC at all. Then again most schools several hundred miles away would be hard-pressed to show up in force.
There are compelling reasons to add Dayton, their fan base shoring up attendance in MSG just isn't one of them
I understand that the A10 as a whole did not represent itself well at Barclay last year.
It was also not a particularly good good Dayton team, which was gone from the tournament on the first day. Not much was expected of them, so it's asking a lot for their fans to travel a long way just to see their team eliminated on opening day in brooklyn.
However, put the tournament in Manhattan, the nation's #1 tourist mecca. Play it against the glamour of Big East competition. Do it a year when Dayton has a competitive team with hopes of something to play for like an NCAA bid on the one, hopes for a conference championship. Given a fan base that rabid, I think they will turn out.
Historically, Dayton has traveled well when they've had good teams, which admittedly not been the case for a long time. The issue with location is that distance creates an obstacle to overcome for fans to get to the tournament. Living in Connecticut, I can hop in my car and drive a couple of hours to the Big East tournament, which I've done many times. As a UConn fan, am I flying to Memphis for the AAC tournament? I'm going to have to think long and hard about that one.
So, when I look at Dayton's location, I see less of an obstacle for their fans to overcome to get to the Garden than for the fans of St Louis, who aren't as rabid as the Dayton fans in the first place. To get good prices on plane tickets, you have to plan in advance. But if a destination is drivable, last minute decisions are possible. Dayton is a day's drive from Manhattan. St Louis is not practical for driving to manhattan any more than Memphis is from connecticut.
You're presupposing that Dayton will be competitive enough in the Big East not to be bounced on the first day of the tournament most years. Given the last 30 years or so, you're probably being overly optimistic.
I guess this year should be telling as to how UD's fan base travels as they're expected to be better this year.
Last year no one really showed up but VCU fans, and that includes Xavier's and Butler's fan bases. X's fans didn't show up all that much in Atlantic City either even when their teams were good as I understand it. That's not a slight to them, it's a whole lot farther for them to travel. The reality is that those midwest schools that don't have Big East tradition aren't going to bring that many fans. Packing an arena in your city is fine, travelling several hundred miles when you're a bottom half Big East team is a different matter.
Yep. VCU did show up (at least relative to the other A-10 schools and considering we're 350 miles away). I was actually a little surprised closer schools like UMass, St. Joe's, and La Salle didn't bring more fans. That was very disappointing.
Yes, I realize that Dayton hasn't done anything for at least 30 years, so they have to develop that program.
BUT . . .
Their young coach, Archie Miller, Sean Miller's younger brother is only in his 3rd season and he's not responsible for the last 30+ years. He has had a string of assistant coaching experiences with some top coaches (Thad Matta, Sean Miller, Herb Sendek) and played at a high level (NC State).
Some coach will turn this thing around. Maybe it's him. He has certainly shown he can recruit. He's brought in a 5-star and 2 4-star recruits this year. So, the next year or two is one they should show some progress.
I'm not presupposing that Dayton will be competitive enough not to get bounced from the Big East on the first day. I'll wait and see if they can do that in the A10. If they can do it there, then they may be ready for the next level. If the get to the Big East, I have a hunch that their fans will travel even if they can't be assured of advancing beyond the first day just because it's such a big event, because an upset even just in the first round is such a big deal, and b ecause it's the Big Apple.
(10-17-2013 09:48 AM)stever20 Wrote: The problem with 10 teams is it'd get pretty easy if you have a league with a ton of parity to have a bunch of 10-8 teams. If that happens, and the OOC schedules aren't great for those 10-8 teams, you could easily wind up with only 3 tourney teams.
I really don't see us staying at 10 beyond the 2014-15 season at the latest. I think Fox puts a lot of pressure on us to get up to 12.
If we get a bunch of 10-8 teams, that's basically our dream scenario where we'll get 7 teams in the NCAAs.
If we got a bunch of 10-8 teams, first off the bottom 3 teams would have to be almost at like 2-3 wins each(with all against each other).
Also, the teams at 10-8 in conference play would have to have gone at least 9-4 in OOC play to be even 19-12. That's bubble team all the way. If it's a poor OOC schedule, probably would have to have gone at least 11-2 to make it.
what we don't want is a year like 2010-11 MVC
15-3
14-4
12-6
10-8
10-8
9-9
8-10
3 teams in pretty easily. The 2 10-8 teams will have to have had a solid OOC schedule and done ok with it. The 9-9 and 8-10 teams are in trouble.
In 2013, the 10 of us went a combined 94-32 ooc, which is .746 ball. And that is in what many consider to be an off-year, with Xavier at 7-6 ooc.
In 2011, the MVC went 68-48 ooc, which is .586 ball.
That year, the MVC had 1 team better than .667 ooc.
Also, Indiana State won the MVC tourney, after finishing third at 12-6... but ooc, the Sycamores were 4-7, with losses to Morehead State, Loyola (Chic), Eastern Kentucky, Ball State, Wyoming, Notre Dame and Purdue.
None of the 10 of us have ever been as bad as Indiana State ooc that year... not even the year DePaul lost to Gardner-Webb or the year PC lost to Brown. And if we were, I can't imagine that team finishing 12-6 and winning the BET.
"Possibilities" are endless.
"Probabilities" and history tell us that as a group we will play better than .750 ball ooc, and that 5 bids will be our benchmark (as we said yesterday at media day).
(10-17-2013 07:19 AM)VCUfan Wrote: All good points, but I would also point out that Dayton didn't show up at the A-10 tournament. Their attendance is very impressive at home, but they did not travel well to NYC at all. Then again most schools several hundred miles away would be hard-pressed to show up in force.
There are compelling reasons to add Dayton, their fan base shoring up attendance in MSG just isn't one of them
I understand that the A10 as a whole did not represent itself well at Barclay last year.
It was also not a particularly good good Dayton team, which was gone from the tournament on the first day. Not much was expected of them, so it's asking a lot for their fans to travel a long way just to see their team eliminated on opening day in brooklyn.
However, put the tournament in Manhattan, the nation's #1 tourist mecca. Play it against the glamour of Big East competition. Do it a year when Dayton has a competitive team with hopes of something to play for like an NCAA bid on the one, hopes for a conference championship. Given a fan base that rabid, I think they will turn out.
Historically, Dayton has traveled well when they've had good teams, which admittedly not been the case for a long time. The issue with location is that distance creates an obstacle to overcome for fans to get to the tournament. Living in Connecticut, I can hop in my car and drive a couple of hours to the Big East tournament, which I've done many times. As a UConn fan, am I flying to Memphis for the AAC tournament? I'm going to have to think long and hard about that one.
So, when I look at Dayton's location, I see less of an obstacle for their fans to overcome to get to the Garden than for the fans of St Louis, who aren't as rabid as the Dayton fans in the first place. To get good prices on plane tickets, you have to plan in advance. But if a destination is drivable, last minute decisions are possible. Dayton is a day's drive from Manhattan. St Louis is not practical for driving to manhattan any more than Memphis is from connecticut.
You're presupposing that Dayton will be competitive enough in the Big East not to be bounced on the first day of the tournament most years. Given the last 30 years or so, you're probably being overly optimistic.
I guess this year should be telling as to how UD's fan base travels as they're expected to be better this year.
Last year no one really showed up but VCU fans, and that includes Xavier's and Butler's fan bases. X's fans didn't show up all that much in Atlantic City either even when their teams were good as I understand it. That's not a slight to them, it's a whole lot farther for them to travel. The reality is that those midwest schools that don't have Big East tradition aren't going to bring that many fans. Packing an arena in your city is fine, travelling several hundred miles when you're a bottom half Big East team is a different matter.
Yep. VCU did show up (at least relative to the other A-10 schools and considering we're 350 miles away). I was actually a little surprised closer schools like UMass, St. Joe's, and La Salle didn't bring more fans. That was very disappointing.
Yes, I realize that Dayton hasn't done anything for at least 30 years, so they have to develop that program.
BUT . . .
Their young coach, Archie Miller, Sean Miller's younger brother is only in his 3rd season and he's not responsible for the last 30+ years. He has had a string of assistant coaching experiences with some top coaches (Thad Matta, Sean Miller, Herb Sendek) and played at a high level (NC State).
Some coach will turn this thing around. Maybe it's him. He has certainly shown he can recruit. He's brought in a 5-star and 2 4-star recruits this year. So, the next year or two is one they should show some progress.
I'm not presupposing that Dayton will be competitive enough not to get bounced from the Big East on the first day. I'll wait and see if they can do that in the A10. If they can do it there, then they may be ready for the next level. If the get to the Big East, I have a hunch that their fans will travel even if they can't be assured of advancing beyond the first day just because it's such a big event, because an upset even just in the first round is such a big deal, and b ecause it's the Big Apple.
The problem for Dayton is as long as VCU is doing what they've been doing(and they have a chance to actually improve)- AND the fact that the decision likely happens within the next year- timing is not great for Dayton at all. Also, I could easily see schools like Butler and Xavier not supporting Dayton quite frankly ever. I don't know how Creighton, DePaul, and Marquette would feel- not that much difference locally for them between VCU and Dayton- and the fact that VCU is so far ahead of Dayton right now. I just see it such an uphill battle for Dayton to get in with how poorly they've done recently.
(10-17-2013 09:48 AM)stever20 Wrote: The problem with 10 teams is it'd get pretty easy if you have a league with a ton of parity to have a bunch of 10-8 teams. If that happens, and the OOC schedules aren't great for those 10-8 teams, you could easily wind up with only 3 tourney teams.
I really don't see us staying at 10 beyond the 2014-15 season at the latest. I think Fox puts a lot of pressure on us to get up to 12.
If we get a bunch of 10-8 teams, that's basically our dream scenario where we'll get 7 teams in the NCAAs.
If we got a bunch of 10-8 teams, first off the bottom 3 teams would have to be almost at like 2-3 wins each(with all against each other).
Also, the teams at 10-8 in conference play would have to have gone at least 9-4 in OOC play to be even 19-12. That's bubble team all the way. If it's a poor OOC schedule, probably would have to have gone at least 11-2 to make it.
what we don't want is a year like 2010-11 MVC
15-3
14-4
12-6
10-8
10-8
9-9
8-10
3 teams in pretty easily. The 2 10-8 teams will have to have had a solid OOC schedule and done ok with it. The 9-9 and 8-10 teams are in trouble.
In 2013, the 10 of us went a combined 94-32 ooc, which is .746 ball. And that is in what many consider to be an off-year, with Xavier at 7-6 ooc.
In 2011, the MVC went 68-48 ooc, which is .586 ball.
That year, the MVC had 1 team better than .667 ooc.
Also, Indiana State won the MVC tourney, after finishing third at 12-6... but ooc, the Sycamores were 4-7, with losses to Morehead State, Loyola (Chic), Eastern Kentucky, Ball State, Wyoming, Notre Dame and Purdue.
None of the 10 of us have ever been as bad as Indiana State ooc that year... not even the year DePaul lost to Gardner-Webb or the year PC lost to Brown. And if we were, I can't imagine that team finishing 12-6 and winning the BET.
"Possibilities" are endless.
"Probabilities" and history tell us that as a group we will play better than .750 ball ooc, and that 5 bids will be our benchmark (as we said yesterday at media day).
You can't just look at the records of the OOC games.
DePaul went 9-4 OOC- against the 334th hardest OOC schedule.
Seton Hall went 11-2 OOC- against the 237th OOC schedule
wowzers to both of them.
St John's went 8-5 vs 153rd OOC schedule. If they go 10-8 in conference play, they're 18-13 and that's a team that is squarely on the bubble. Especially if they're in that 4/5 game and get beat 1st rd of BET.
We can say whatever we want to say. It doesn't matter. It's no lock by ANY stretch of the imagination that we can say a 10-8 team makes the tourney no matter what. It's going to be hard for a 9-9 or 8-10 team to make the tourney. It just will. Not impossible but hard. The individual team had better have had a good OOC schedule and done ok with it.
(10-17-2013 07:19 AM)VCUfan Wrote: All good points, but I would also point out that Dayton didn't show up at the A-10 tournament. Their attendance is very impressive at home, but they did not travel well to NYC at all. Then again most schools several hundred miles away would be hard-pressed to show up in force.
There are compelling reasons to add Dayton, their fan base shoring up attendance in MSG just isn't one of them
I understand that the A10 as a whole did not represent itself well at Barclay last year.
It was also not a particularly good good Dayton team, which was gone from the tournament on the first day. Not much was expected of them, so it's asking a lot for their fans to travel a long way just to see their team eliminated on opening day in brooklyn.
However, put the tournament in Manhattan, the nation's #1 tourist mecca. Play it against the glamour of Big East competition. Do it a year when Dayton has a competitive team with hopes of something to play for like an NCAA bid on the one, hopes for a conference championship. Given a fan base that rabid, I think they will turn out.
Historically, Dayton has traveled well when they've had good teams, which admittedly not been the case for a long time. The issue with location is that distance creates an obstacle to overcome for fans to get to the tournament. Living in Connecticut, I can hop in my car and drive a couple of hours to the Big East tournament, which I've done many times. As a UConn fan, am I flying to Memphis for the AAC tournament? I'm going to have to think long and hard about that one.
So, when I look at Dayton's location, I see less of an obstacle for their fans to overcome to get to the Garden than for the fans of St Louis, who aren't as rabid as the Dayton fans in the first place. To get good prices on plane tickets, you have to plan in advance. But if a destination is drivable, last minute decisions are possible. Dayton is a day's drive from Manhattan. St Louis is not practical for driving to manhattan any more than Memphis is from connecticut.
You're presupposing that Dayton will be competitive enough in the Big East not to be bounced on the first day of the tournament most years. Given the last 30 years or so, you're probably being overly optimistic.
I guess this year should be telling as to how UD's fan base travels as they're expected to be better this year.
Last year no one really showed up but VCU fans, and that includes Xavier's and Butler's fan bases. X's fans didn't show up all that much in Atlantic City either even when their teams were good as I understand it. That's not a slight to them, it's a whole lot farther for them to travel. The reality is that those midwest schools that don't have Big East tradition aren't going to bring that many fans. Packing an arena in your city is fine, travelling several hundred miles when you're a bottom half Big East team is a different matter.
Yep. VCU did show up (at least relative to the other A-10 schools and considering we're 350 miles away). I was actually a little surprised closer schools like UMass, St. Joe's, and La Salle didn't bring more fans. That was very disappointing.
Yes, I realize that Dayton hasn't done anything for at least 30 years, so they have to develop that program.
BUT . . .
Their young coach, Archie Miller, Sean Miller's younger brother is only in his 3rd season and he's not responsible for the last 30+ years. He has had a string of assistant coaching experiences with some top coaches (Thad Matta, Sean Miller, Herb Sendek) and played at a high level (NC State).
Some coach will turn this thing around. Maybe it's him. He has certainly shown he can recruit. He's brought in a 5-star and 2 4-star recruits this year. So, the next year or two is one they should show some progress.
I'm not presupposing that Dayton will be competitive enough not to get bounced from the Big East on the first day. I'll wait and see if they can do that in the A10. If they can do it there, then they may be ready for the next level. If the get to the Big East, I have a hunch that their fans will travel even if they can't be assured of advancing beyond the first day just because it's such a big event, because an upset even just in the first round is such a big deal, and b ecause it's the Big Apple.
The problem for Dayton is as long as VCU is doing what they've been doing(and they have a chance to actually improve)- AND the fact that the decision likely happens within the next year- timing is not great for Dayton at all. Also, I could easily see schools like Butler and Xavier not supporting Dayton quite frankly ever. I don't know how Creighton, DePaul, and Marquette would feel- not that much difference locally for them between VCU and Dayton- and the fact that VCU is so far ahead of Dayton right now. I just see it such an uphill battle for Dayton to get in with how poorly they've done recently.
Why is it a choice between VCU and Dayton? To any rational follower of college basketball, VCU should be a shoe-in as #11. Then it comes down to who fills the bill as #12.
A lot of folk seem to be assuming that St Louis is a lock for an expansion spot. I'm jus saying that if a concern develops with regard to the turnout for the tournament, they're going to have to pause before overlooking Dayton in favor of St Louis. Why take the team that is almost 1000 miles away and pas on the one that is only 600 miles away? Why take he team whose fan base turns out 7600 fans at home and pass on the team whose fan base turns out 12,400?
It would be one thing if St Louis were a power house program. It's not like they've done much more than Dayton over the past 30 years. Of course Dayton would have to show some signs of life to be considered. But with the way Miller has been recruiting at Dayton, that now seems possible.
