HE also left out the Notre Dame defection, and he also left out the Boise St and SDSt defection. so now you are looking at:

$130MM --> $80M --> $48M --> $30M > $20MM > $10MM

Doubt it would go down that far, but you get the point. 3 original teams leaves you with no semblance of the original contract. Especially when, essentially they are the three least attractive teams (based purely one being left holding the bag) at least football-wise.

(07-18-2013 12:55 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  HE also left out the Notre Dame defection, and he also left out the Boise St and SDSt defection. so now you are looking at:

$130MM --> $80M --> $48M --> $30M > $20MM > $10MM

Doubt it would go down that far, but you get the point. 3 original teams leaves you with no semblance of the original contract. Especially when, essentially they are the three least attractive teams (based purely one being left holding the bag) at least football-wise.

I get the point. But not from $14m to $1.8m. That's just way too far for the contract to be negotiated down to. I'd have to see a clause in that 2011 deal allowing for a total scrap-it renegotiation to believe it.

(07-18-2013 06:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-18-2013 12:55 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  HE also left out the Notre Dame defection, and he also left out the Boise St and SDSt defection. so now you are looking at:

$130MM --> $80M --> $48M --> $30M > $20MM > $10MM

Doubt it would go down that far, but you get the point. 3 original teams leaves you with no semblance of the original contract. Especially when, essentially they are the three least attractive teams (based purely one being left holding the bag) at least football-wise.

I get the point. But not from $14m to $1.8m. That's just way too far for the contract to be negotiated down to. I'd have to see a clause in that 2011 deal allowing for a total scrap-it renegotiation to believe it.

I didn't include Boise State defecting, because I didn't see them or Air Force or BYU coming aboard at $4-5M for football, which is where I had the league in the fall of 2011, so Boise never officially signs up.

Then in the fall of 2012, there's another massive haircut when Louisville and Rutgers leave. (And yeah, I forgot Notre Dame, but I think that the league and ESPN would have still been negotiating the haircut from Notre Dame leaving when Louisville and Rutgers announced that they were leaving.) And then another massive haircut when the C-7 leave.

Quo, you say you'd want to see the official 2011 deal? I don't think it exists, because the negotiations didn't get that far. This was just a thought experiment, "What actually would have happened if the Big East took the April 2011 ESPN deal?"

The answer is, of course, it depends on exactly what the renegotiation clause says. Someone had given the numbers that when Miami left, the Big East football contract was slashed by 70% and the total contract by 30%. So I used 40%.

It's possible that the contract would have simply been voided at one point or another and the Big East allowed to go to the market.

What's not plausible is that the conference, with 3 of the 17 teams that would have signed the contract and 9 replacement teams of lower value, would be getting remotely similar money.

(Crap. I purposely didn't post this on your forum, because rude.)

(07-18-2013 07:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  What's not plausible is that the conference, with 3 of the 17 teams that would have signed the contract and 9 replacement teams of lower value, would be getting remotely similar money.

Nobody, least of all myself, has denied that the massive defections wouldn't have caused a massive reduction in the value of the 2011 contract, had we signed it. The only issue is how massive. I don't think it would get all the way down to $1.8m. Maybe $4m at the lowest, still a massive reduction from $14m.

The only reason that possibly would be true is if no one estimated the market value would be that low. But at that point, the (now AAC) would have likely tried to test the open market, thinking it could not possibly get worse, and well we'd be back where we started at best. So it's sort of a moot point.

(07-22-2013 01:37 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  The only reason that possibly would be true is if no one estimated the market value would be that low. But at that point, the (now AAC) would have likely tried to test the open market, thinking it could not possibly get worse, and well we'd be back where we started at best. So it's sort of a moot point.

I think ESPN had a much better idea of the conference's market value than the conference did. And the ESPN contract would have been helping to set that market, telegraphing what ESPN would be willing to pay on the open market.

But yes, moot point. My point was that the $130M would have been slashed in two rounds, effectively three rounds because the C7 would have left while ESPN was negotiating the Louisville-Rutgers haircut.