SMUmustangs
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RE: Future Big 12
(07-03-2013 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote: (07-03-2013 06:10 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote: (07-03-2013 05:04 PM)JRsec Wrote: (07-03-2013 04:32 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote: (07-03-2013 03:05 PM)JRsec Wrote: This in my opinion is right and you have been kind in your remarks.
In the beginning after Missouri and A&M left Texas was not sure what it needed to do. Do we go to the PAC, do we entertain the ACC or Big 10, or do we salvage the Big 12?
I believe they had thoughts of hoping to lure Notre Dame into some kind of arrangement with them so they waited to see who they needed to pursue as future members that might be acceptable to the Irish. Notre Dame wasn't interested. The Big 10 snatches Maryland and the ACC responds decisively by taking Louisville and coming to terms with Notre Dame.
Now the tardiness of response by Texas and Oklahoma have allowed one of their best options profitably and geographically in connection with West Virginia to be taken off the market.
Kudos to John Swofford for breaking the ACC's academic norms and hamstringing his competition. The move meant that now the most profitable team out there for the Big 12 to expand with would be Westward and not to the Northeast.
If there had been any quality (in terms of adding cash value) teams out there interested in the Big 12 they would already have them.
B.Y.U. has potential but by themselves can't provide enough umpf to make it worth Texas and Oklahoma passing on better options.
The highly touted GOR now becomes a shackles for the top 4 to 6 programs of the Big 12. While the ACC's GOR yields the perception of strength they had hoped it would be.
So either 8 teams find new homes, or everyone in the Big 12 sweats out the next ever how many years of their bondage. The Big 12 has 2 top 10 teams in earning potential and then a fairly wide gulf until it gets to Kansas and West Virginia. It's that economic gap that exists between the top, the middle, and the bottom that along with their market footprint limits the upside of the conference.
I doubt that B.Y.U. and either Cincinnati, or one of the 4th or 5th Florida schools will add enough to solidify that conference.
That's why we will have 1 of 3 potential outcomes here:
1. 8 or more teams will be brokered to new homes with compromise by all conferences participating in the move.
2. We wait 8 to 10 years and see a bolting of the top 6 schools to other conferences.
3. They add B.Y.U. and Cincinnati, or one of the Florida Schools and just decide to make less.
Which of those three solutions do you think will be the most palatable?
They won't opt for less money while their competition is earning more.
They will have many hard feelings and some political entanglements by waiting and leaving potentially 4 schools in the lurch.
They could free themselves and broker an amicable solution for the majority.
Folks may think I'm crazy but I think it will be the latter. Less pain, more gain!
JR once again, with all due respect and no offense intended, your posts on the Big12 seem to be getting worse. The part about the GOR being a shackles to the Big12, but the ACC GOR is a show of strength is sheer hypocrisy.
Then you list three options, none of which considers the Big12 staying happily at 10 members.
You are corrrect about one thing though....... some folks may think you are crazy
1. I thought you weren't going to bother addressing me again.
2. What are you thoughts on the direction of that conference? This is a realignment board and it is full of speculation. (Especially in the absence of real news.) Put your thoughts on the line. Everyone is entitled to them.
I've heard speculation about Missouri, Arkansas, L.S.U. and even Auburn leaving the SEC for another conference and have not responded to any of it because if someone wants to think that (even if I 100% believe them to be in error) then that is their right. Contrary to what the thought police of any conference represented here may wish to suppress, they are not going to be able to change whatever it is that will happen.
3. Every time you say "with all due respect" since it is followed by some kind of backhanded insult that is "hypocrisy".
4. The distinctions about how the GOR's are perceived is a factor.
5. Whether or not I'm wrong will at least be born out by what does or doesn't transpire and I'll live with that because it is just sports and not geopolitical matters, health, a family crisis, or something else imminently more important and consequential.
6. A little bit of friendly debate and difference of opinion is what makes a talk board fun. It sure helps tally the number of posts when things are dry as a bone, like right now.
7. If a number of folks think I'm crazy for holding an opinion that usually makes me happy and a bit more certain of my position. In life the herd is usually traveling together for one reason, to go to the slaughter house. I am not a follower of the herd mentality. Travelling alone, even in opinion, is usually the safer and better option. It works in investing too.
8. I always find those who get angry at the opinions of others to be those who are really just displacing their anger because they can't address the things in life that truly bother them. So, they pick a target and vent. And folks are angry about a lot of different things these days that they can't do anything about. So the level of personal discourse and hostility is up.
9. I have nothing against you or your posts, or ideas, when you bother to express them.
10. Other than my ideas what is it that makes you seek me out to post your criticisms instead of engaging in constructive conversation?
I meant I was not going to reply to any more of your posts on that particular thread.
AS I have repeatedly said, my thoughts on the direction of the Big12, is it will stay at 10.
When I say with all due respect,I am truly trying not to be rude or disrespectful or indicate any anger or hostility, but keep a civil conversation.. I do not know how else to say it. I am certainly not angry at you are anything you post. Most of this stuff is meaningless anyway.
I do not seek out your posts, in fact I ignore a lot of them because frankly, they so are too long and wordy for me. However, you do have a lot of interesting thoughts.
One reason I respond to some of your posts, is it seems to me instead of stating.... this is my opinion are what I believe, you are tellling us "this is how it is" as though it was facts not opinions. Anyway that is how I read it. . So when I feel they are incorrect I try to help clear the air with information that I am aware of. Where I live, I am saturated with Big12 information and I simply try to pass it along. You seem to very knowledgeable about sports on this board and I do not have enough information to respond on many of your thoughts, but like I say, I am flooded with Big12 info.
I am sorry if I have offended you in any way and I wish you would not take any of it personal.
Remember in the Department Store of Life.......Sports is the toy department.
Thanks, feel free to disagree anytime. I have a better sense I think of where you are coming from in all of this. I have no ill will toward the Big 12. I do think the networks will push us into a more balanced structure to facilitate their advertising packages so that all regions stand a better chance of maxing out the target price range. I do see the halt in realignment more as a network issue right now between ESPN and FOX than I do as the abatement of activity by the conferences. When the networks offer more money for more expansion that is what we will have. If they don't, we won't.
It only seems like I'm picking on the Big 12 because they have returned to the more vulnerable position. Last Fall it was the ACC that seemed to be most vulnerable. Two years ago it was the Big East. I do know that we have gradually been moving toward 4 major conferences. Whether or not they will have 16 members each is another matter and whether we get there sooner or later is another matter.
And you are correct in that staying at 10 should have been a 4th option. But, how GOR's are perceived is going to play a part in all of this before it is over. Right now the perception is that they may be stronger than they really are. But neither do I believe that you can just walk over them. If there is future realignment it will require cooperation between conferences and accommodation to most if not all of the teams of the Big 12. Anyway that is my opinion and how I see it right now. Have a good 4th. JR
Fair enough. I do not think you are picking on the Big12. I know there are a lot of posters that would love for their school to be in the Big12 and they speculate accordingly. For example the OP of this thread. I understand that.
However, to me the the Big12 has made it very clear that it is not going to expand, if the schools added do not increase the league's value and certainly not if they dilute the league. Neither will they add a school just to give West Virginia a neighbor. Therefore, I think they will stay at 10.
As for the Big12 breaking up I do not see that happening. Contrary to what many seem to believe ...ALL of the schools in the conference seem to be very happy with what they have... especially Texas.
So I do not think there is any possibility any team will defect to the BIG or the SEC.
However, I tend to agree with your last statement on any possible future realignment involving the Big12. In the remote event that happens, then I believe we would see the PAC take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Kansas State. The PAC would love to have Texas, OU, and KU and would likely be willing to take the other three schoools, who match up fairly well athletically and even academically with the current lower echlon PAC schools. The LHN killed the deal last time, but the LHN seems to have failed and may no longer be an issue.
After that who knows. Would that break the GOR? Would the Big10 take Iowa State, an AAU school? Would the ACC take Iowa State as a neighbor for Louisville?....they fit the ACC academics and have a fairly well rounded sports program.
If the BIG took Missouri along with Iowa State would the SEC take West Virginia?
What would happen to Baylor and TCU? Go to ACC? SEC?. Maybe the AAC with SMU and Houston.
As I said, I think the Big12 will be around for a while.
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2013 10:24 PM by SMUmustangs.)
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