(02-26-2013 10:42 AM)laxtonto Wrote:  This has been hashed over in the Conference Realignment board a bit, but if you go with the established premise of

B1G - UVA, GT (14+2)
B12 - FSU, Miami, Clemson, NCST, VT and Louisville or Pitt, (10+6)
SEC - UNC, Duke (14+2)

Ain't happening. Just like Texas and OU to the PAC 12 didn't happen. Close but no cigar.

I've been saying for awhile, the endgame is four AQ/BCS conferences, and either the B12 or ACC would get absorbed. Just waiting to see which. My money is on the B12 to absorb some ACC teams, likely after the B10 gets the ball rolling. Depends on how the courts view the 50 mil fee though.... What's better, a 50 million exit fee, or a GOR?

In the end, whomever is left will probably absorb or merge with most of the Big East, so I agree with the OP. There is a decent chance of it happening, probably sooner rather than later.

FWIW, I think most of the complications in the league's structure had to do with the disagreements between the b-ball and f-ball schools, not ND.
[/quote]
FWIW I think you have no clue what you are talking about. ND is still in the Big East only because the C7 has not left. ND has sided with the C7 every step of the way. ND could have saved a lot of trouble for the Big East if had placed it's football with ud in the first place.

Please recall the "buyers remorse" statements made a few week backs. I'm not suggesting that ND will place their non football sports in the C7 if the ACC implodes, at this point my feeling is with the B12. However, it deffinitly will not be the Nbe.

Personally, I think the conferences are stable for now. Moves only happen because schools are unhappy with their positions within a conference and believe there are greener pastures elsewhere. The BE was always two conferences and it was only a matter of time before it broke up. The only other major conference with a real weakness now is the Big12. Why? Because two schools control the money of the conference. Without Texas or Oklahoma, the Big12 would be in a similar situation as the nBE and MWC. The only reason why the Big12 has not imploded is because no one other than UT and OU can leave. As soon as OU and UT decided to leave, then that will be it.

But, honestly, I think the next domino will be between the MWC and the nBE. I think there will either be a merger or the nBE’s western schools will get poached. Overall, the B1G and SEC are happy with their numbers. There aren’t a lot of changes that can be made to make things better…so, I don’t really see them expanding to expand. The ACC has only lost one team in this mess and has generally been on the offensive all along. Contrary to the hopes and dreams of many, I think that conference is on more solid footing than people think (especially with a $50mill exit fee). The PAC12 can’t expand unless it’s with UT/TTech and OU/OSU. There are no other valuable pieces in their region of the country.

(02-26-2013 10:06 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  The ACC was going to be gutted as Maryland had a deal to leave for half the exit clause. Once the Big 10 started sniffing around that deal died. I only see them losing one to two teams at most for the foreseeable future.

Wait, what???? Care to elaborate on this tidbit? Are you implying Maryland had somewhere else in mind to go, but because they're leaving for the B1G, then that's why the full exit fee was being enforced? That sounds pretty ludicrous to me.

(02-26-2013 11:29 PM)FriarTuck420 Wrote:  

(02-26-2013 04:59 PM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  

FWIW, I think most of the complications in the league's structure had to do with the disagreements between the b-ball and f-ball schools, not ND.

FWIW I think you have no clue what you are talking about. ND is still in the Big East only because the C7 has not left. ND has sided with the C7 every step of the way. ND could have saved a lot of trouble for the Big East if had placed it's football with ud in the first place.

Please recall the "buyers remorse" statements made a few week backs. I'm not suggesting that ND will place their non football sports in the C7 if the ACC implodes, at this point my feeling is with the B12. However, it deffinitly will not be the Nbe.
[/quote]

Why exactly should ND have done that?

The Irish would have taken a big pay cut and surrendered its football independence.

For what, exactly?

For a football conference whose schools disagreed among itself about splitting from the basketball schools and from adding new member schools?

For a hybrid conference that was fractured along many fault lines?

The Big East did not have enough (any?) strong anchor schools and was not strong enough (or united enough) to stand and survive on its own.

ND had no duty to "save" the Big East from itself, especially by surrendering over 100 + years of independence and taking a pay cut.

ND joined the Big East in 1995 and made it very clear that football was NEVER going to be included. The conference voted them in with that full understanding.

(02-26-2013 10:00 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  Who is the B1G's #15? As of today, they only have 14 if you add in Rutgers and Maryland.

NC would be their #1, If they move first, they would not get NC.

Even if everyone went to 16, which I don't see, (the Pac doesn't have the picks available outside of B12.) It is going to happen piecemeal. The ACC will reload as schools go. Short term next 3 to 5 years I can see SEC and Big at 16, B12 at 12 and that is about it.

(02-26-2013 11:29 PM)FriarTuck420 Wrote:  

(02-26-2013 04:59 PM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  

FWIW, I think most of the complications in the league's structure had to do with the disagreements between the b-ball and f-ball schools, not ND.

FWIW I think you have no clue what you are talking about. ND is still in the Big East only because the C7 has not left. ND has sided with the C7 every step of the way. ND could have saved a lot of trouble for the Big East if had placed it's football with ud in the first place.

Please recall the "buyers remorse" statements made a few week backs. I'm not suggesting that ND will place their non football sports in the C7 if the ACC implodes, at this point my feeling is with the B12. However, it deffinitly will not be the Nbe.
[/quote]

You're absolutely right. Notre Dame and Providence both should have placed their football programs in the Big East. That would have saved the day.