(02-25-2013 08:39 PM)stever20 Wrote: (02-25-2013 08:26 PM)XLance Wrote: (02-25-2013 05:34 PM)krux Wrote: (02-25-2013 05:20 PM)JRsec Wrote: Smoke and mirrors. Just an easy way to back down expectations until the networks sort things out, particularly ESPN.
Or to allow a little more of that GOR to expire...
JR is right, realignment is in the hands of the networks now.
I'd agree for the most part, EXCEPT for the Big Ten. They are the big dog conference in a lot of ways. If Big Ten wants a team they're going to get them(at least from the ACC). Not a damn thing ESPN can do to really stop that from happening.
A FOX versus ESPN bidding war is inevitable. The lull in the action is probably over strategy. I think the issue for ESPN will boil down to volume of product versus quality of product with quality being measured in national eyeballs.
I think they (ESPN) are trying to decide whether it makes more sense to save the ACC and pillage the Big 12, or pillage both the ACC and Big 12 in order to assimilate their own version of a super conference. They could decide to siphon off the best of the Big 12 into the SEC and ACC and have quantity of product to offer versus the two new FOX stations, or take Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas add them to North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State or Virginia Tech to create a 20 team SEC that maximizes eyeballs, sends content through the roof, and maximizes those brands profits while leaving everything else to either reform a minor version of the ACC/BigEast/Big12 for mid-week games, or just let them go period.
The concept of taking the highest percentage of viewership from the national brands and putting them in the conference that already leads the nation in eyeballs maximizes the audience for advertising profits, and minimizes the number of teams they have to support in the process. Fox could then profit by a very large Big 10, part of the PAC, and the leftovers of the ACC and Big 12, but they would not be able to capture the numbers with close to 50 schools that ESPN could with 20. Let's say that ESPN decides to make it 24 teams. You could add the remainder of F.S.U./Virginia Tech, West Virginia, N.C. State, and Clemson or Miami. That would leave FOX 40 schools that would not net them the % of profit versus the outlay that ESPN would have with 24 teams and less overhead.
I think this is the kind of thinking that is going on right now. I also believe that it is likely that we won't have the answer to this kind of question for a month or two, or perhaps until the Maryland decision. If Maryland's 52 million dollar exit fee stands then it may not be so costly for ESPN to shore up the ACC and shoot for control in a 20 team SEC and a 20 team ACC. Sure there is CBS to contend with in the SEC but they are not the threat that FOX is and ESPN has tier 2 & 3 of the SEC's content which is enormous. If the fee is drastically lowered it will probably be economically advantageous to go for the 1 large conference with uber content.
Don't be fooled by the Big 10's projections. They are based on models that may not be steady, and on FOX's willingness to build inventory. ESPN has deep pockets too and sports programming has the highest yield per dollar investment of any kind of TV entertainment. Plus the sports market is a bubble that may be nearing capacity. There is a lot to weigh before the final strategies of these two Networks are implemented.
The Big 10 will come out of this fine one way or the other and so will the SEC. The question is how the other product is divided up, or bolstered. On that we will all just have to wait and see.
/
Ohio St AD says B1G not aggressively pursuing expansion
