Just as a practical matter, what do you think is the greatest %-loss in the national popular vote that a candidate could overcome in the Electoral College? I think 1.0% is about the outer limit of probability.

(Al Gore won the popular vote by about 0.51%)

No way. In fact, Kerry was 60k votes in Ohio from winning the EC despite losing the popular vote by 3%.

The battleground states behave differently because that's where all the advertising and ground game is concentrated. And this year, the whole auto bailout thing.

(10-27-2012 09:44 PM)Max Power Wrote:  No way. In fact, Kerry was 60k votes in Ohio from winning the EC despite losing the popular vote by 3%.

The battleground states behave differently because that's where all the advertising and ground game is concentrated. And this year, the whole auto bailout thing.

hmmm sort of

kerry lost ohioby 119k
so he really needed 60k bush voters to changed their mind
not exactly same thingas needing 60k more votes

bush % margin in ohio was 2.1
nationwide was 2.4-2.5

if you shift ohio 2.2%in kerry's direction it doesn't mean the whole country shifts the same degree
but you would see some movement in the other states too

what is the 'limit' for winning popular vote and still losing electoral college? hard to say my guess 1.5%

it could happen this time
i can see romney winning popular by 1.2% or so and still losing the college by 271:267 or something like that

virginia colorado iowa and new-hamp go romney while ohio wisconsin nevada go obama
not saying it'll happen but crazier things have happened

60k late deciders going to Kerry wasn't implausible. And a state-specific issue (like the auto bailout this cycle) could have easily accounted for those 60k votes.

If you believe shifts in Ohio always accompany national shifts then you believe advertising and ground game makes no difference.

(10-28-2012 07:39 AM)Max Power Wrote:  60k late deciders going to Kerry wasn't implausible. And a state-specific issue (like the auto bailout this cycle) could have easily accounted for those 60k votes.

Stop broadcasting your idiocy.

Quote:If you believe shifts in Ohio always accompany national shifts then you believe advertising and ground game makes no difference.

It makes little.

LOLno. This $2 billion isn't being spent for "little." States that are exposed to advertising and organizing efforts the others aren't and which have their own unique issues behave independently of California or Texas.

Considering that the red states hate Obama so much, I would say almost 5%.