1- Have they renegotiated or did they just prorate A&M and Mizzou the same as the other 12 for the time being until it is redone later?

2- What is the expected to be the new amount from ESPN? From CBS?

3- Does ESPN have the rights to all remaining football games or merely a set number that with 12 teams was pretty close to being comprehensive?

Renegotiation has not yet happened.

CBS made some noise about NOT renegotiating, basically because they get the same number of games, and there's not much added value in say A&M-Alabama over say the Florida-Tennessee game they'd have to drop to make room for it.

I don't know about #3.

I think the most likely outcome is that ESPN and the SEC will create an SEC Network.

(06-28-2012 01:37 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Renegotiation has not yet happened.

CBS made some noise about NOT renegotiating, basically because they get the same number of games, and there's not much added value in say A&M-Alabama over say the Florida-Tennessee game they'd have to drop to make room for it.

I don't know about #3.

I think the most likely outcome is that ESPN and the SEC will create an SEC Network.

Yeah. I assume the only way ESPN allows the thing if they have the rights to the football and hoops inventory right now is if they have their cut of it.

So we are probably looking at a Big Ten Network split ownership deal instead of the PAC own it all plan?

Nothing official yet but so far the two big RUMORS (as in "conservative estimates", not "done deals") are:

1) 25 mil per team (though some estimates higher)
2) SEC Network starting in 2014 with a payout initially similar to BTN (approx 10 mil per school) but with potential to be higher thanks to SEC baseball.

(06-28-2012 02:01 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Nothing official yet but so far the two big RUMORS (as in "conservative estimates", not "done deals") are:

1) 25 mil per team (though some estimates higher)
2) SEC Network starting in 2014 with a payout initially similar to BTN (approx 10 mil per school) but with potential to be higher thanks to SEC baseball.

Remember the WVU to the SEC conservative nearly done deals?

This is totally ridiculous. I have seen such rumours. Living in SEC country, you have to take with a grain of salt what comes out of SEC territory.

There has been nothing reliable on the Tier I and II except that CBS really didn't want to pay anymore for Tier I (which is logical since they still get one game, its always been national coverage and MU and A&M aren't likely to be on that much). Slive has said the SEC is working on several options with ESPN, only one of which is a jointly owned network similar to BTN. BTN 4 years in is paying $7.2 million so $10 million at the start is a pretty ridiculous estimate. Doing a network is pretty complicated since ESPN owns some rights, the schools own some and some have been sold by the schools.

Net result-noone really has a good idea what will happen, possibly not even Slive. They'll end up with more than their $17.1 million.

Personal guess (and just that) is that they end up between $18-$20 million Tier I and II and agree with ESPN to defer any decision on a network for a year or two, leaving the Tier III with the schools for the short term.

(06-28-2012 01:50 PM)Sammy11 Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 01:37 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Renegotiation has not yet happened.

CBS made some noise about NOT renegotiating, basically because they get the same number of games, and there's not much added value in say A&M-Alabama over say the Florida-Tennessee game they'd have to drop to make room for it.

I don't know about #3.

I think the most likely outcome is that ESPN and the SEC will create an SEC Network.

Yeah. I assume the only way ESPN allows the thing if they have the rights to the football and hoops inventory right now is if they have their cut of it.

So we are probably looking at a Big Ten Network split ownership deal instead of the PAC own it all plan?

If I'm the head honcho of ESPN, I'm not releasing any content to an SEC Network that I don't own 49% of.

Now, an SEC-ESPN joint venture is a very different matter. Figure 7 SEC games a week, one on CBS, three on ESPN/2, three for the SEC Network. It would also be a big platform for SEC baseball, maybe even women's hoops.

(06-28-2012 02:16 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 01:50 PM)Sammy11 Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 01:37 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Renegotiation has not yet happened.

CBS made some noise about NOT renegotiating, basically because they get the same number of games, and there's not much added value in say A&M-Alabama over say the Florida-Tennessee game they'd have to drop to make room for it.

I don't know about #3.

I think the most likely outcome is that ESPN and the SEC will create an SEC Network.

Yeah. I assume the only way ESPN allows the thing if they have the rights to the football and hoops inventory right now is if they have their cut of it.

So we are probably looking at a Big Ten Network split ownership deal instead of the PAC own it all plan?

If I'm the head honcho of ESPN, I'm not releasing any content to an SEC Network that I don't own 49% of.

Now, an SEC-ESPN joint venture is a very different matter. Figure 7 SEC games a week, one on CBS, three on ESPN/2, three for the SEC Network. It would also be a big platform for SEC baseball, maybe even women's hoops.

In saying only one option is a jointly owned network, that is the only network option. It must be jointly owned as the SEC can't setup a network under this contract w/o ESPN approval. SEC officials have been saying they want a joint deal like the BTN-51/49.

What?!

The Longhorn strongly believes (hopes) that the SEC will not be making a lot more money than the Big 12!?!?

Shocking.

(06-28-2012 02:20 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  What?!

The Longhorn strongly believes (hopes) that the SEC will not be making a lot more money than the Big 12!?!?

Shocking.

SEC fans believe Clay Travis-shocking!

(06-28-2012 02:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  Personal guess (and just that) is that they end up between $18-$20 million Tier I and II and agree with ESPN to defer any decision on a network for a year or two, leaving the Tier III with the schools for the short term.

I think they will create an SEC network, with 2-3 football games, a good number of basketball (and baseball) games as the backbone, and a commitment to bring those Tier 3 contracts back "in house" over time.

Easier to believe than the Big 12 "They're going to get less than the PAC did!" scenario.

(06-28-2012 02:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Easier to believe than the Big 12 "They're going to get less than the PAC did!" scenario.

What SEC fans fail to recognize is that its not about today's fair market value. The SEC is locked into a long term contract. So it doesn't matter what they are "worth." ESPN doesn't have to give them a dime. Its a look-in, not a renegotiation. ESPN will make some more with the extra games. If the SEC can figure out things that make more money for ESPN and the SEC (like a network might), ESPN will do it. However, ESPN is not going to reduce its profits just because the SEC added two teams that are in the middle of the SEC pack. The SEC is unlikely to do the things that might most increase the value like a 9 game schedule or TH/F games.

Based on what I read here I expect:


Jointly owned network that will eventually eclipse 10mm per team but start off at 4-5 early on
Tier 1 per school payout (CBS) to remain similar if not the same per school
Tier 2 to get a 3-5mm bump to the 20-22mm range pre-network.

(06-28-2012 02:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Easier to believe than the Big 12 "They're going to get less than the PAC did!" scenario.

Tier 1 and 2 I think they beat the PAC. Tier 3 is another matter because I believe ESPN owns all the fb rights after CBS picks. Getting ESPN to give them up will likely mean they take a cut of any network venture. That would cut the per school share.

(06-28-2012 02:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:20 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  What?!

The Longhorn strongly believes (hopes) that the SEC will not be making a lot more money than the Big 12!?!?

Shocking.

SEC fans believe Clay Travis-shocking!

Oh man, I read one of Travis' babblings on the SEC Network. He forgot to consider any costs of starting or running a network. He was talking like $40 million per school nonsense....for just the SEC Network. Then it was just a case of waiting out CBS and ESPN and not selling those rights, then BAM! $100 million per school.

(06-28-2012 02:48 PM)bronconick Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:20 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  What?!

The Longhorn strongly believes (hopes) that the SEC will not be making a lot more money than the Big 12!?!?

Shocking.

SEC fans believe Clay Travis-shocking!

Oh man, I read one of Travis' babblings on the SEC Network. He forgot to consider any costs of starting or running a network. He was talking like $40 million per school nonsense....for just the SEC Network. Then it was just a case of waiting out CBS and ESPN and not selling those rights, then BAM! $100 million per school.

Travis is right about an SEC Network being too valuable not to create, but he can't resist going with the rosiest possible projection, and then pushing the envelope on that projection.

Ask the Big Ten presidents about the value of a conference network.

(06-28-2012 02:55 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:48 PM)bronconick Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:20 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  What?!

The Longhorn strongly believes (hopes) that the SEC will not be making a lot more money than the Big 12!?!?

Shocking.

SEC fans believe Clay Travis-shocking!

Oh man, I read one of Travis' babblings on the SEC Network. He forgot to consider any costs of starting or running a network. He was talking like $40 million per school nonsense....for just the SEC Network. Then it was just a case of waiting out CBS and ESPN and not selling those rights, then BAM! $100 million per school.

Travis is right about an SEC Network being too valuable not to create, but he can't resist going with the rosiest possible projection, and then pushing the envelope on that projection.

Ask the Big Ten presidents about the value of a conference network.

Oh, I know. His logic was basically "Football is bigger in the southeast than the midwest, so double what the BTN makes from each subscriber, add up all the subscribers in the footprint, multiply the two, and add say, a quarter per subscriber from everyone else in the country. Divide by 14. That's how much each school will make.

No 51% to ESPN, no costs of setup, renting or constructing buildings and sets, no equipment or travel costs, no labor costs, nothing. And everyone on his blog was sucking it up like reality.

(06-28-2012 03:02 PM)bronconick Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:55 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:48 PM)bronconick Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:20 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  What?!

The Longhorn strongly believes (hopes) that the SEC will not be making a lot more money than the Big 12!?!?

Shocking.

SEC fans believe Clay Travis-shocking!

Oh man, I read one of Travis' babblings on the SEC Network. He forgot to consider any costs of starting or running a network. He was talking like $40 million per school nonsense....for just the SEC Network. Then it was just a case of waiting out CBS and ESPN and not selling those rights, then BAM! $100 million per school.

Travis is right about an SEC Network being too valuable not to create, but he can't resist going with the rosiest possible projection, and then pushing the envelope on that projection.

Ask the Big Ten presidents about the value of a conference network.

Oh, I know. His logic was basically "Football is bigger in the southeast than the midwest, so double what the BTN makes from each subscriber, add up all the subscribers in the footprint, multiply the two, and add say, a quarter per subscriber from everyone else in the country. Divide by 14. That's how much each school will make.

No 51% to ESPN, no costs of setup, renting or constructing buildings and sets, no equipment or travel costs, no labor costs, nothing. And everyone on his blog was sucking it up like reality.

I know. I commented, did some math on a napkin--50% to ESPN, TExas and Florida are not as SEC-crazy as Georgia and Tennessee setc. and came up with a number about 1/4 of Clay Travis'. But even that number was staggering.

(06-28-2012 02:44 PM)Sammy11 Wrote:  

(06-28-2012 02:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Easier to believe than the Big 12 "They're going to get less than the PAC did!" scenario.

Tier 1 and 2 I think they beat the PAC. Tier 3 is another matter because I believe ESPN owns all the fb rights after CBS picks. Getting ESPN to give them up will likely mean they take a cut of any network venture. That would cut the per school share.

Tier 1 football - CBS

Tier 2 - ESPN already has rights to all of SEC's Tier 2, unlike the Pac, where ESPN/Fox together have about half of Tier 2 and the other half was retained by the Pac for its network(s). So clearly the SEC's combined CBS/ESPN number is going to be higher than the Pac's ESPN/Fox number because ESPN has the rights to 100% of the SEC's Tier 2 and not just 50%.

Tier 3 - IIRC some of that is retained by the schools and not owned by ESPN. Florida, as one example, retains rights to the crappiest game on its football schedule and sells that to regional sports networks along with some baseball and other sports.

If there's an SEC network, ESPN will have its tentacles around it and will make a ton of money from it, because ESPN already owns all of the most valuable content that would be on the SEC network. ESPN is not going to give that back to the SEC for free.