The Big East can "expect" Air Force or BYU all they want. The problem is they can't "make" Air Force or BYU join up. Those schools have different priorities than most of the Big East schools. This is not as simple as posters on the internet seem to think because there are multiple factors in play.

Things would be so much simpler if they had just added Fresno State, alongside their biggest rivals Boise State and San Diego State, rather than chasing after military academies for so-called political protection that won't be needed anyway since there won't be anymore AQ status for anyone.

(06-02-2012 06:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(06-02-2012 05:58 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  

(06-02-2012 05:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  I'm basing the AFA possibility on this:

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/may/...ill-works/

Quote:The Big East Conference is expected to make another run at BYU or Air Force if the league’s new TV contract generates as much revenue as expected.

http://articles.philly.com/2012-05-24/sp...g-meetings

Quote:Teams will play eight-game league schedules once the conference expands from eight teams to 12 in 2013. The conference is expected to grow to 14 teams in 2015. That's when Navy joins for football only. Brigham Young or Air Force is expected to join Navy, according to multiple sources at the spring meetings.

Here is the problem I see with the projections......the Big East's TV deal is going to have to be at least 12 million per football only school to attract BYU and I'm not sure if the Cougars will bite.

Football only is 8.8 million per year while ESPN pays BYU 2 million per home game under its TV agreement. Thus BYU generally makes 8-10 million per year in TV money.

Air Force might figure it can sit tight in the MWC and perhaps pick up as high as 4-5 million in TV money in the next round of negotiations. I'm not sure if joining the BE in football and leaving for the Summit Conference in hoops makes a great deal of sense in this case.

I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that the MWC would be getting 4-5 million dollars. There's just not enough markets out west that they would have that would give them that. I think it speaks volumes when you look at the conference tv schedule- almost every single tv game has either Boise or San Diego St on it. That speaks volumes.

That logic means the Big East is in trouble with WVU, Pitt, and Cuse leaving as they were in almost every single game of Big East games.

(06-02-2012 09:14 PM)ECUgradstudent Wrote:  

(06-02-2012 06:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(06-02-2012 05:58 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  

(06-02-2012 05:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  I'm basing the AFA possibility on this:

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/may/...ill-works/

Quote:The Big East Conference is expected to make another run at BYU or Air Force if the league’s new TV contract generates as much revenue as expected.

http://articles.philly.com/2012-05-24/sp...g-meetings

Quote:Teams will play eight-game league schedules once the conference expands from eight teams to 12 in 2013. The conference is expected to grow to 14 teams in 2015. That's when Navy joins for football only. Brigham Young or Air Force is expected to join Navy, according to multiple sources at the spring meetings.

Here is the problem I see with the projections......the Big East's TV deal is going to have to be at least 12 million per football only school to attract BYU and I'm not sure if the Cougars will bite.

Football only is 8.8 million per year while ESPN pays BYU 2 million per home game under its TV agreement. Thus BYU generally makes 8-10 million per year in TV money.

Air Force might figure it can sit tight in the MWC and perhaps pick up as high as 4-5 million in TV money in the next round of negotiations. I'm not sure if joining the BE in football and leaving for the Summit Conference in hoops makes a great deal of sense in this case.

I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that the MWC would be getting 4-5 million dollars. There's just not enough markets out west that they would have that would give them that. I think it speaks volumes when you look at the conference tv schedule- almost every single tv game has either Boise or San Diego St on it. That speaks volumes.

That logic means the Big East is in trouble with WVU, Pitt, and Cuse leaving as they were in almost every single game of Big East games.

really not all the case at all...

11 games shown on one of ESPN's that didn't involve those 3. nothing like the MWC- where only like 5 conference games are on tv that don't include Boise or SD St- and most of those are for Air Force....

AFA and Big East. The rumor all along was that what was tempting about the Big East for AFA was making Navy a conference game. Air Force has ten games locked in every year. 8 MWC, Army and Navy. They have very little wiggle room for non-conference scheduling. If they joined the Big East and Navy was either in their division or a permanent rival as the SEC does, Air Force frees up a non-conference date because then they would (presumably) play 8 conference games and Army.

AFA has had a great deal of success in the Commander-In-Chief Trophy but their games with Navy and Army do not garner national attention remotely resembling the focus of Army-Navy. While the other two academies see AFA as a rival, Beat Air Force doesn't drive them the way Beat Navy or Beat Army does. Turning AFA-Navy into a conference game gives them an opportunity to elevate that rivalry.

Based on the articles coming out of people who regularly cover Air Force, the Falcons primary concern with Big East was finding a suitable home for other sports. They did not believe the WAC was stable (that has looked like a solid bet). The Missouri Valley was apparently a favorite and but the Valley was not interested. WCC apparently was not encouraging nor was Big West.

The important thing to remember with AFA is that if they want to join at the same time as Navy, they don't have to give notice to the MWC until June 30, 2014. That gives AFA two full years to assess the landscape and work out the business of a home for other sports.

If I'm a WAC president or AD trying to keep the league together, I'm spending time in Colorado Springs finding out what it would take to make the league acceptable to AFA.

(06-02-2012 01:28 PM)BadWillHunting Wrote:  

(06-02-2012 11:41 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I don't know why people think the NCAA won't let a conference die.

Who won the Border Conference, Skyline, Southwest, or the Yankee Conference last year?

The WAC spurred two FCS move-ups already and lost both of them before finishing transition. Giving any leeway to the WAC to create 6 more FCS to FBS transitions isn't going to be a priority. Let's not forget that Navy joining the Big East in 2015 puts the Big East at 13 in football. There is a school of thought that believes Air Force will accept a Big East football invite by June 30, 2014 allowing them to join the Big East at the same time as Navy and gaining AFA more time to iron out their home for other sports. If that is the case, MWC will make first play to UTEP and if that doesn't work, NMSU is probably the new MWC #10. That puts the WAC into needing yet another FCS move-up.

I agree, but you're really stretching here. For example: the anchors of the old Skyline Conference FORMED the WAC 50 years ago...
Using that is kind of like saying "The WAC DIED!!!" without noting that many of its original members split-off & formed the Mountain West a decade ago.

What stretch?

The Skyline/Mountain States Conference didn't form the WAC. Some members left to form the WAC but when the WAC was formed, Skyline members Colorado State, Denver, Montana, and Utah State were left without a home. Montana had to leave University Division (the then equivalent of FBS, and move to College Division I (the then equivalent of Division II, though it was more like a Division II / FCS hybrid).

When members of the Border Conference left to form the WAC, New Mexico State wasn't invited and spent 8 years as an independent before landing in the Missouri Valley. UTEP spent 7 years as an independent before landing in the WAC. Hardin-Simmons and West Texas A&M ended up dropping out of University Division and landing in College Division.

It is an awful big stretch to say those conferences didn't die when three schools left out of the Mountain State/Skyline and Border dying and forming WAC ended up reclassifying, NMSU spent time in the MoValley, Big West, Sun Belt before ending up in the WAC 4 1/2 decades later. Likewise, Utah State went through independence, Big West, and Sun Belt before landing in the WAC 4 1/2 decades later. Denver waited 5 decades to get in the WAC.