that the greed of the Big Six football conferences will destroy Division 1 college athletics as we know it now. I hope I am wrong.

(07-23-2011 09:04 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote:  that the greed of the Big Six football conferences will destroy Division 1 college athletics as we know it now. I hope I am wrong.

Derek Dooley speaking at the SECMD showed why you have nothing to worry about. The Big 6 breaking away is just creating another NFL and nobody wants that.

It's an error in thinking and a bad cycle.

D1 got too big according to the "elite" and there was the D1A/D1AA divide. Teams like ASU - and this probably bastardizing Arkstfan's recollection of it- got forced down to D1AA because of insufficient financial and political clout.

Now it is even worse. The BCS hegemon controls the largest share of revenue distribution and the rapid WAC expansion is giving the vibe that anybody can jump up and get a piece of the pie. At the same time, the BCS is increasingly being scrutinized on equity and legal grounds.

The talking heads of the Big 6 have an illogical fear of the cash floodgates being open and the doors to FBS being swung wide open. I mean what's going to happen? They branch out of the NCAA? Who will they play OOC? I mean sure, it will be the elite teams, but good luck balancing all your budgets that are mostly in the red.

It ain't happening.

Not happening at all. As Dooley said, what are you gonna do? They could take the most profitable schools and create a league and it would be outside the NCAA and have little affiliation with the school. They could revenue share, all would have the same budget and wear the same brand of uniform just like the NFL. But who wants that? Its not going to happen because what most people love about college football is that it isnt Pro Football. The shareholders are students, alumni and the community.

Maryland from the mighty ACC is facing financial problems. They have been spending about $8 million more per year than they bring in. They have finally exhausted their reserves.

The first thing to remember is things aren't worse than ever before. I ran down some past scandals here http://www.arkst.com/?p=1168

If you look around right now the big scandals have been improper contact with agents (UNC). Improper recruiting contact (Oregon). Extra benefits (Ohio State). Improper inducement to attend (apparently the Auburn case).

Most of those are a rules failing in my mind.

The NCAA needs to sit down with the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, MLS and their player associations get a deal done. NCAA will permit players to hire an agent so they can get advice about turning pro but the leagues and player associations will strip the credentials of any agent that provides improper aid. It's good for the leagues because they don't want to be faced with whether to grab a raw talent and develop them or wait until they are ready, except now they can't go back to college.

Oregon in part was about trying to keep tabs on recruits during dead periods (I talk about that here http://www.arkst.com/?p=1203 and here http://www.arkst.com/?p=1222). Walk into the modern age and lift most of the limits on coaches contacting players. Kill signing day because the current system breeds panic. We think we are getting Tommy, website for Northeastsouthwestern says he's now leaning their way, school can't contact him legally. Let the coaches have more contact and let kids sign whenever they make up their mind. Once you know the kid is signed you aren't running scared trying to line-up other options. Today a recruiting class can literally fall apart in the hours before signing day because of problems at other schools or can end up being stellar because none of your prime choices got raided. Give the coaches a chance to get those signatures early on and worry about something else, the fear that arises in January isn't healthy for staying within the rules.

Ohio State, very simple. Follow the rule the same way you followed it with Georgia. If the NCAA had treated Ohio State the way it treated Georgia, the message gets sent. Break the rules and you pay. Tressel tried to cover it up, he should be under a show cause order, (ie. any school hiring him the next X years should be forced to come before the Committee on Infractions and explain why they shouldn't be placed on probation for hiring a known cheater).

Auburn. Not a lot you can do if Newton was paid other than finding a friendly IRS agent to nail any involved boosters and the player for breaking the law with unreported gifts and unreported income. Outside that, not much the rule book can do other than what is out there.

The talk of splitting has two causes in my opinion.

1. This is an era of fear. The economy sucks. There is little growth room for donations or ticket price increases (one of the reasons Maryland is in trouble was a big luxury box and club seating construction program that hasn't paid off). The only thing propping up TV rights is that televised sports are basically DVR proof making the ads very valuable. Schools are on a spending spree that is unsustainable. They can maybe buy a little time by forming a mini NFL/NBA but that too is going to cap out. As more channels come into being and internet and mobile delivery become more mainstream, the clock is ticking on the super rights fees.

2. Playoff thinking. Most everyone involved in college athletics believes a football playoff will happen, but not soon. I can tell you when it will happen. It happens the day the SEC or Big 10 or Pac-12 go to renew their TV deal and its not more money than the last deal when adjusted for inflation. In other words, probably 8 to 12 years from now. If playoff has to be the new income source, then cutting the number of schools to share with becomes attractive.

I don't think a split is going to happen because there is a huge difference in the business model of Alabama, Texas, and Ohio State from the model of the Lakers, Bears, and Eagles. The colleges make more money from ticket sales than from television, throw in the required donations to buy tickets and its not even close. Winning and losing has a far larger impact on a team's finances in college than it does in the NFL. You can go 2-14 in the NFL and be in the black, go 4-8 in college a couple years in a row and you are struggling financially. Having access to beatable opponents is the core of the business except at maybe 5-10 schools who would win no matter what.