FIUFan
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Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
It is clear that since 2005 more and more blue-chip football players are now coming to the Sun Belt.
Here's the breakdown of rivals 3*** football recruits since then:
2005 - 10
2006 - 4
2007 - 14
2008 - 33...increase = 136%
2009 - 32
2010 - 53...increase = 66%
2011 - 56
Why did the Sun Belt do so poorly in OOC games this year (beyond the difficult schedule)? Well just looking at the recruiting statistics tells me that the senior class this year were from 2007 (14 3***'s in the entire class). Starting this year there will be more quality Sun Belt atheltes on the field than ever before....and the pipeline only gets thicker from here.
There are potentially 174 3*** athletes, from the four previous recruiting classes, making up the 9 Sun Belt teams right now (that's ~19 per team) .
Anybody want to go to the WAC?
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02-03-2011 10:07 AM |
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BlueRaiderFan.
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 10:07 AM)FIUFan Wrote: It is clear that since 2005 more and more blue-chip football players are now coming to the Sun Belt.
Here's the breakdown of rivals 3*** football recruits since then:
2005 - 10
2006 - 4
2007 - 14
2008 - 33...increase = 136%
2009 - 32
2010 - 53...increase = 66%
2011 - 56
Why did the Sun Belt do so poorly in OOC games this year (beyond the difficult schedule)? Well just looking at the recruiting statistics tells me that the senior class this year were from 2007 (14 3***'s in the entire class). Starting this year there will be more quality Sun Belt atheltes on the field than ever before....and the pipeline only gets thicker from here.
There are potentially 174 3*** athletes, from the four previous recruiting classes, making up the 9 Sun Belt teams right now (that's ~19 per team) .
Anybody want to go to the WAC?
Interesting!
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02-03-2011 11:16 AM |
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TeKERaider
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
From what i understand starting in 08 rivals almost doubled the amount of 3* given so take that into consideration.
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02-03-2011 11:39 AM |
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FIUFan
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 11:39 AM)TeKERaider Wrote: From what i understand starting in 08 rivals almost doubled the amount of 3* given so take that into consideration.
Do you have a link? Just in a cursory look at the first 3 conferences (ACC, B12, BE) from 2007 to 2008, there doesn't appear to be a marked increase in the number of 3*'s in those conferences (maybe slight decrease). I'd like to have the database to be able to get the exact totals for each of those years; but I'm sure it's proprietary.
Anyways, would like to see something more definitive so that we can get a more accurate picture.
p.s. this rivals blogger ranked the AQ conferences based on signings from the 2006-2010 periods and made no mention of this "adjustment".
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/bl...aaf-312875
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2011 11:55 AM by FIUFan.)
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02-03-2011 11:54 AM |
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MG61
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 10:07 AM)FIUFan Wrote: It is clear that since 2005 more and more blue-chip football players are now coming to the Sun Belt.
Here's the breakdown of rivals 3*** football recruits since then:
2005 - 10
2006 - 4
2007 - 14
2008 - 33...increase = 136%
2009 - 32
2010 - 53...increase = 66%
2011 - 56
Why did the Sun Belt do so poorly in OOC games this year (beyond the difficult schedule)? Well just looking at the recruiting statistics tells me that the senior class this year were from 2007 (14 3***'s in the entire class). Starting this year there will be more quality Sun Belt atheltes on the field than ever before....and the pipeline only gets thicker from here.
There are potentially 174 3*** athletes, from the four previous recruiting classes, making up the 9 Sun Belt teams right now (that's ~19 per team) .
Anybody want to go to the WAC?
What's the WAC ? Women's Auxillary Corps ?:odie:
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02-03-2011 11:55 AM |
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Fanof49ASU
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 11:55 AM)MG61 Wrote: What's the WAC ? Women's Auxillary Corps ?:odie:
Here's a classic thread from the WAC board. If you can't laugh at yourself, you'll be miserable....especially in the WAC.
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=451&f=2368&t=7126068
"Will Anyone Care".....my favorite. "Welcome Anyone Conference"...a close 2nd.
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02-03-2011 12:03 PM |
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MG61
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 12:03 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote: (02-03-2011 11:55 AM)MG61 Wrote: What's the WAC ? Women's Auxillary Corps ?:odie:
Here's a classic thread from the WAC board. If you can't laugh at yourself, you'll be miserable....especially in the WAC.
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=451&f=2368&t=7126068
"Will Anyone Care".....my favorite. "Welcome Anyone Conference"...a close 2nd.
if they move too soon on UNT again, it could be "We Annoy Candidates".
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02-03-2011 12:10 PM |
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Fanof49ASU
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 12:10 PM)MG61 Wrote: if they move too soon on UNT again, it could be "We Annoy Candidates".
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02-03-2011 12:12 PM |
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FIUFan
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 11:39 AM)TeKERaider Wrote: From what i understand starting in 08 rivals almost doubled the amount of 3* given so take that into consideration.
Just located the actual number of 3*'s from rivals extensive database (thanks fanatic). Shows there was actually a drop in 3*'s from '07 to '08 of 45 athletes. However, from 2009 to 2010 there was a net increase of 25% in 3*'s year-over-year (and a corresponding decrease in 2*'s).
So this may tell us that rivals has thrown more resources into recruiting in the past 12/24 months, meaning that fewer recruits are going unranked and hence only receiving a 2* (all FBS signees get at least 2*'s). The college signings may also be a derivative of the economy as a whole as there was 10% drop in signings in 2008 from 2007 which then came back up in 2009 and 2010.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/bl...aaf-311830
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02-03-2011 05:03 PM |
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InjunJohn
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 05:03 PM)FIUFan Wrote: (02-03-2011 11:39 AM)TeKERaider Wrote: From what i understand starting in 08 rivals almost doubled the amount of 3* given so take that into consideration.
Just located the actual number of 3*'s from rivals extensive database (thanks fanatic). Shows there was actually a drop in 3*'s from '07 to '08 of 45 athletes. However, from 2009 to 2010 there was a net increase of 25% in 3*'s year-over-year (and a corresponding decrease in 2*'s).
So this may tell us that rivals has thrown more resources into recruiting in the past 12/24 months, meaning that fewer recruits are going unranked and hence only receiving a 2* (all FBS signees get at least 2*'s). The college signings may also be a derivative of the economy as a whole as there was 10% drop in signings in 2008 from 2007 which then came back up in 2009 and 2010.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/bl...aaf-311830
There is a difference between being unrated and getting a 2* as a default at the end or being rated and getting a legitmate 2*. But I don't buy the "more assets meaning more 3*" arguement. If that is the case, that is saying that Rivals is saying there are more and more kids that are legitmate mid major stars in the making which I don't buy. If you raise the number of the 3* population, it cheapens the meaning of that star ranking.
If you are stuck on stars, then I would say look at Scout, Rivals, ESPN, and whoever. If all of them are in the same ball park, then you probably got a good feel for where this kid is at. If they are all over the board, then probably not so much.
IMHO the best way to gauge is look at who is offering to see where that player may lay. I will tell you this, I would much rather have a 2* that is offered by a couple of SEC teams as opposed to a 3* that none are offering.
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02-03-2011 05:12 PM |
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FIUFanatic
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 11:54 AM)FIUFan Wrote: (02-03-2011 11:39 AM)TeKERaider Wrote: From what i understand starting in 08 rivals almost doubled the amount of 3* given so take that into consideration.
Do you have a link? Just in a cursory look at the first 3 conferences (ACC, B12, BE) from 2007 to 2008, there doesn't appear to be a marked increase in the number of 3*'s in those conferences (maybe slight decrease). I'd like to have the database to be able to get the exact totals for each of those years; but I'm sure it's proprietary.
Anyways, would like to see something more definitive so that we can get a more accurate picture.
p.s. this rivals blogger ranked the AQ conferences based on signings from the 2006-2010 periods and made no mention of this "adjustment".
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/bl...aaf-312875
Very interesting stuff, based on statistics, FIUFan.
Actually, the year that rivals started increasing their 3-stars was in 2009 and 2010, with a 21.7% increase in 2009 over 2008, and a 24.9% increase in 2010 over 2009. However, in 2009 there was only a 1% decrease in 2-star players compared to 2008, and in 2010 there was a major drop, of 20% of 2-stars players signing with FBS teams, compared to that of 2009. 2010 was the first year in the 5-year period studied, where there were more 3-stars signed by FBS teams than 2-stars.
There's another article on this same subject, but based on how many All Americans each "star" produces, and it lists how many 5, 4, 3, and 2 -stars signed with FBS teams.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/bl...aaf-311830
EDIT: FIUFan, I see you already incorporated these numbers into your analysis....Thanks
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2011 05:20 PM by FIUFanatic.)
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02-03-2011 05:15 PM |
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FIUFanatic
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 05:12 PM)InjunJohn Wrote: (02-03-2011 05:03 PM)FIUFan Wrote: (02-03-2011 11:39 AM)TeKERaider Wrote: From what i understand starting in 08 rivals almost doubled the amount of 3* given so take that into consideration.
Just located the actual number of 3*'s from rivals extensive database (thanks fanatic). Shows there was actually a drop in 3*'s from '07 to '08 of 45 athletes. However, from 2009 to 2010 there was a net increase of 25% in 3*'s year-over-year (and a corresponding decrease in 2*'s).
So this may tell us that rivals has thrown more resources into recruiting in the past 12/24 months, meaning that fewer recruits are going unranked and hence only receiving a 2* (all FBS signees get at least 2*'s). The college signings may also be a derivative of the economy as a whole as there was 10% drop in signings in 2008 from 2007 which then came back up in 2009 and 2010.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/bl...aaf-311830
There is a difference between being unrated and getting a 2* as a default at the end or being rated and getting a legitmate 2*. But I don't buy the "more assets meaning more 3*" arguement. If that is the case, that is saying that Rivals is saying there are more and more kids that are legitmate mid major stars in the making which I don't buy. If you raise the number of the 3* population, it cheapens the meaning of that star ranking.
If you are stuck on stars, then I would say look at Scout, Rivals, ESPN, and whoever. If all of them are in the same ball park, then you probably got a good feel for where this kid is at. If they are all over the board, then probably not so much.
IMHO the best way to gauge is look at who is offering to see where that player may lay. I will tell you this, I would much rather have a 2* that is offered by a couple of SEC teams as opposed to a 3* that none are offering.
I generally agree with you in terms of your first argument as well as looking at which teams are actually really offering scholarships to a player, which I don't feel is necessarily contrary to what FIUFan is saying, but he didn't mention that some are actually evaluated. There are 2-stars assigned (subjectively, of course) because that is what the evaluator thought, but also there are some because the player wasn't really evaluated, and they automatically "assign" 2 stars to an FBS signee.
As for how you perceive that the increase of 3-stars "cheapens" the value of the ranking, I guess that is one valid way to look at it, from a 2 vs. 3 star players' viewpoint. However, if you suscribe to that theory, then it only makes it look worse for a team...and conference...full of only 2-star players that were actually evaluated by the same evaluator.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2011 05:40 PM by FIUFanatic.)
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02-03-2011 05:38 PM |
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InjunJohn
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 05:38 PM)FIUFanatic Wrote: (02-03-2011 05:12 PM)InjunJohn Wrote: (02-03-2011 05:03 PM)FIUFan Wrote: (02-03-2011 11:39 AM)TeKERaider Wrote: From what i understand starting in 08 rivals almost doubled the amount of 3* given so take that into consideration.
Just located the actual number of 3*'s from rivals extensive database (thanks fanatic). Shows there was actually a drop in 3*'s from '07 to '08 of 45 athletes. However, from 2009 to 2010 there was a net increase of 25% in 3*'s year-over-year (and a corresponding decrease in 2*'s).
So this may tell us that rivals has thrown more resources into recruiting in the past 12/24 months, meaning that fewer recruits are going unranked and hence only receiving a 2* (all FBS signees get at least 2*'s). The college signings may also be a derivative of the economy as a whole as there was 10% drop in signings in 2008 from 2007 which then came back up in 2009 and 2010.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/bl...aaf-311830
There is a difference between being unrated and getting a 2* as a default at the end or being rated and getting a legitmate 2*. But I don't buy the "more assets meaning more 3*" arguement. If that is the case, that is saying that Rivals is saying there are more and more kids that are legitmate mid major stars in the making which I don't buy. If you raise the number of the 3* population, it cheapens the meaning of that star ranking.
If you are stuck on stars, then I would say look at Scout, Rivals, ESPN, and whoever. If all of them are in the same ball park, then you probably got a good feel for where this kid is at. If they are all over the board, then probably not so much.
IMHO the best way to gauge is look at who is offering to see where that player may lay. I will tell you this, I would much rather have a 2* that is offered by a couple of SEC teams as opposed to a 3* that none are offering.
I generally agree with you in terms of your first argument as well as looking at which teams are actually really offering scholarships to a player, which I don't feel is necessarily contrary to what FIUFan is saying, but he didn't mention that some are actually evaluated. There are 2-stars assigned (subjectively, of course) because that is what the evaluator thought, but also there are some because the player wasn't really evaluated, and they automatically "assign" 2 stars to an FBS signee.
As for how you perceive that the increase of 3-stars "cheapens" the value of the ranking, I guess that is one valid way to look at it, from a 2 vs. 3 star players' viewpoint. However, if you suscribe to that theory, then it only makes it look worse for a team...and conference...full of only 2-star players that were actually evaluated by the same evaluator.
or it could be argued as to where Rivals puts its assets and how much support they have. Some schools have a big presence on Rivals and a lot of support for their pages. Others have a token presence. Quite frankly, the only thing that the ULM rivals page gets is what if mines from the Scout page.
I am a firm believer that Rivals is geared more towards the big schools and "name" athletes. I don't think they re-evaluate during the year. I personally feel that Scout does a better job of looking and evaluating more players. Just my opinion and it is probably skewed because of the work our Scout page guy does and the information we get from that site.
Bottom line: Do they qualify and do they make the field and do they make you competitive. We will know in a couple of years.
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02-03-2011 07:08 PM |
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FIUFanatic
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
Agree with that latest notion, and that's what it comes down to, who actually qualifies and plays for each team and his development through the years. Still, the facts those articles bring are no less interesting and telling.
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02-03-2011 07:22 PM |
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CajunT
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-03-2011 05:03 PM)FIUFan Wrote: (02-03-2011 11:39 AM)TeKERaider Wrote: From what i understand starting in 08 rivals almost doubled the amount of 3* given so take that into consideration.
Just located the actual number of 3*'s from rivals extensive database (thanks fanatic). Shows there was actually a drop in 3*'s from '07 to '08 of 45 athletes. However, from 2009 to 2010 there was a net increase of 25% in 3*'s year-over-year (and a corresponding decrease in 2*'s).
So this may tell us that rivals has thrown more resources into recruiting in the past 12/24 months, meaning that fewer recruits are going unranked and hence only receiving a 2* (all FBS signees get at least 2*'s). The college signings may also be a derivative of the economy as a whole as there was 10% drop in signings in 2008 from 2007 which then came back up in 2009 and 2010.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/bl...aaf-311830
I don't see how Rivals grading out more athletes with 3-stars means they are putting more resources into recruiting. That's a huge assumption on your part, without actual proof. The decussion has been that Rivals has changed its grading scale and is more liberal in rating athletes 3-stars. Until Rivals makes some kind of statement in regards to the direction of their scouting department, either could be true.
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02-03-2011 08:33 PM |
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statefanatic
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
It's not about star, but about who offered them. That's what I look at when ASU signs a kid. We have many this class that were offered by SEC and Big 12 schools.
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02-04-2011 07:09 AM |
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dahbeed
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
i think i know what happened.
deep in the bowels of 'rivals h.q.' there is a map of the united states on a wall in the 'rivals war room'.
the president of rivals made a visit in one day and stuck a push pin into a little dot representing bowling green kentucky/wku......
he then spoke in a measured tone and said.....
'lets make these guys look good'.....'i don't care what it takes...who it pisses off.....that, gentlemen....is your task'
******author sidebar: well done amigos.
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02-04-2011 07:46 AM |
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Fanof49ASU
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
(02-04-2011 07:09 AM)statefanatic Wrote: It's not about star, but about who offered them. That's what I look at when ASU signs a kid. We have many this class that were offered by SEC and Big 12 schools.
I agree.
If the AQ schools think he's good enough to offer one of their sacred scholies to, then that says more than some young writers.
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02-04-2011 09:16 AM |
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BlueRaiderFan.
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
From what I understand they take the kids word for it as to who offered and who didn't. Nothing like saying an SEC/BIG12 school offered to get you noticed. On the other hand, it is good to see the conference garner more three star players.
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02-04-2011 09:28 AM |
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trojanbrutha
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RE: Recruiting: Sun Belt on the Rise
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02-04-2011 09:33 AM |
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