(01-13-2011 11:28 PM)Crump1 Wrote: (01-13-2011 09:19 PM)TennesseeBoyintheRockies Wrote: (01-13-2011 08:53 PM)Crump1 Wrote: ASU is "stagnant"? After finally getting an explosive offense and a new coach after 9 seasons we are anything but stagnant.
Arkansas State has been to one bowl game in its entire Division 1 FBS history. Arkansas State has been Division 1-A/FBS since 1992, correct? If I'm wrong, then let me know. Since moving up from the former Division 1-AA, Arkansas State has only posted one winning season (1995).You have to understand how the outsider looks at Arkansas State's program. Through 19 seasons at the Division 1-A/FBS level, Arkansas State has gone through four head coaches (Perkins, Bobo, Hollis, and Roberts), it has only posted one winning season (1995), and fell below .500 on the season 15 times in that stretch.
Until Arkansas State can break out of the norm that everyone has come to expect, I don't think it's wrong to expect the school to hover around 4-6 wins in 2011 which I believe classifies the program as "stagnant" in my eyes. Am I wrong for thinking this?
You are wrong. THe first 6 years of D1 saw several coaching changes and we didn't even come close to funding 85 scholarships. Hollis came after that and we still didn't dunf the scholarships and struggled to win more than 2 or 3 games a year despite playing 2 FCS schools a year.
2002 was Roberts first year and he brought stability and competitiveness despite the move away from playing two FCS opponents and playing no FCS opponents some years. By his 4th year ASU was in a bowl and soon after defeated Memphis twice, SMU and Texas A & M while putting a serious scare in a top 10 Texas team.
Towrds the end, Roberts had multiple seasons where ASU was bowl eligible with the same record as some Sun Belt bowl teams but the spots weren't open. His teams just found a way to blow leads that kept the program from getting over that 6 win hump.
Last season, Freeze was more or less mandated as the new OC and he turned things around on offense faster than anyone could have expected. Still, ASU found a way to blow games against Troy and FIU on the road with a lead in the final minute and lost to WKU on a botched punt.
Now, Freeze takes over what could have been characterized LAST year as a stagnant program. He returns almost every skill player including every RB, 10 of 11 top receivers and both QBs.
So, no, ASU cannot be characterized as "stagnant" while you call UNT and WKU "on the rise". By your rationalization, every school but Troy is "stagant". ASU's move to hire Freeze to build on the multiple bowl eligible teams under Roberts is actually the opposite of "stagnant".
Now what you're saying is that nothing I posted about Arkansas State's football program is true. The information I gathered was predominately from College Football Datawarehouse, and their information is false? Arkansas State did not have four coaches in the last 19 years? Arkansas State DID produce more than one winning season in 19 years at the FBS level?
I do understand why you believe what you believe. It would not be fair of me to expect anything less from a fan of the same program I'm objectively critiquing and extending a differing point-of-view. I would happily concede your beliefs IF Arkansas State can start winning more than six games a season.
I would hope that you could see how a non-Arkansas State fan or non-Sun Belt fan would see the situation. Maybe "stagnant" is not the right word since this leads you to believe that there is no room for progress. Perhaps "stale" would be a better term. You said so yourself that Arkansas State produced "multiple" bowl eligible teams under Roberts (4 to be exact; 2002 ended with a losing record because of the bowl loss to Southern Miss). This doesn't explain going back down to 4-win teams in 2009 and 2010.
I cannot see Arkansas State winning more than six games in 2011. Six is the absolute maximum I can see. In my eyes this means that Arkansas State is holding to the traditional 4- to 6-win team. In the last nine years under Roberts, Arkansas State only won fewer than 4 games one time. The other 8 times were 4- to 6-win teams. There is simply not enough evidence to suggest that 2011's Arkansas State team will be any different. I understand you have Ryan Aplin and several others coming back. I understand you have a new coach. Arkansas State has had many talented athletes come through the school and a few coaches and STILL has not managed to win more than six games. In fact the school has NEVER won more than six games at the FBS level (1995 ended with a 6-5 record, Arkansas State's only winning record as an FBS member).
I am just going to have to disagree with you, and until Arkansas State can show me it can win more than six games, then six wins is all I can expect from the school at best.
Why do I feel that North Texas and Western Kentucky are on the rise? Look at where they were! North Texas saw 1-, 2-, and 3-win seasons under Todd Dodge and they were not even remotely competitive in their conference. A couple of big eye-openers for me was the win at Middle Tennessee State (a place Arkansas State has never won) snapping a 4-year losing streak to MTSU. Another reality check was the play of Lance Dunbar. The guy had 270 yards rushing against bowl-bound Kansas State in the post-Dodge era. These are turn-around signs for me. The team showed that it can easily adapt to a new coach and it showed on the field in the latter part of the 2010 season.
Western Kentucky is another team that I believe can improve. WKU has a record of 2-22 as a Division 1 FBS member. That team came within 7 points or less in games against Middle Tennessee State, Florida International, Florida Atlantic, and Louisiana-Monroe. Do you realize that WKU would've been 6-6 on the season had they won these other swing games? Most teams with WKU's talent can do better than zero or two wins in a season. That is why I feel they are on the rise.
I'm not suggesting that North Texas and Western Kentucky are going to have 10-win seasons. That's not what I'm trying to say. I believe both could finish with 6 wins this year which is vast improvement for both teams compared to where they've been in recent memory.
6 wins is improvement for WKU and UNT. That's why I feel like those teams could be "on the rise" from where they were. 6 wins is not as big an improvement for Arkansas State because of the multiple bowl eligible seasons ASU saw under Steve Roberts. That is why I feel like ASU is more "stagnant" or I guess "stale" because it has become the norm to see four to six wins from Arkansas State and it has rarely detracted from that norm.