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Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
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SumOfAllFears Offline
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Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion

DEBKAfile Special Report April 10, 2010, 10:51 PM (GMT+02:00)

Article Here

[Image: Arakreactor4.10.jpg]
Arak heavy water reactor nearly finished.

Iran had plenty to celebrate on its National Nuclear Day Friday, April 9. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unveiled the new "third generation" centrifuge which he claimed was capable of six times the speed of the machines in current use in Natanz and there and then proclaimed Iran a nuclear power.

He had three more reasons to crow:

1. Iran's first atomic reactor at the southern town of Bushehr began its main and final test at high temperatures after eight months of test runs. If all the components of the Russian-built 1000-megawatt plant work smoothly, the reactor will finally go into full operation in June or in August at the latest after years of delays.

Mahmoud Jafari, who heads the project, said all parts are working well and there is no reason why the plant should not start producing electricity before the end of this year. On March 18, Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin also said Bushehr would go on stream this summer.
DEBKAfile's military sources report that the spent fuel rods from this reactor will soon be providing Iran with an easy and plentiful source of weapons-grade plutonium.

2. So too will the Arak heavy water plant which Iran has been building secretly southeast of Tehran in violation of its Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations. Work there was discovered this week to have advanced by leaps and bounds and brought the project close to completion, against all estimates that the reactor would not be ready before 2015.

Our military and intelligence sources note that Arak and Boushehr will combine to provide Iran with the large quantities of plutonium for nuclear warheads. This fissile material has advantages over enriched uranium in its accessibility from heavy water and light water reactors, its smaller size for a nuclear explosion, and its use in smaller and lighter nuclear warheads for delivery by smaller missiles.

A former IAEA official, John Carlson, once warned that large light water reactors "of the sort Iran is building at Bushehr can produce 330 kilograms of near-weapons grade plutonium - enough to make more than 50 crude nuclear bombs." The process of separating plutonium from spent fuel "employs technology little more advanced," he said, "than that required for producing dairy products or pouring concrete."

3. Jafari also announced on the occasion of National Nuclear Day that Iran had uncovered in the central province of Yazd large new deposits of uranium ore plentiful enough to make Iran independent of foreign imports for both its military and civilian needs.

DEBKAfile's political sources add: These three breakthroughs on Iran's road to a nuclear weapon are radical enough to put Tehran in the driving seat in negotiations with the 5+1 Group (five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) over its illicit production of enriched uranium and their offer to process it outside Iran as a compromise gesture.

Iran has shown the world it no longer needs outside help for reprocessing uranium up to the critical 20 percent level, which is a short jump to weapons grade and the fissile core of a nuclear bomb. Tehran has made good use of every second allowed by the US-led world powers' lame efforts to dissuade it from its nuclear goals by means of partly-effective sanctions, attractive incentives and diplomatic engagement, a policy which gained momentum after Barack Obama became US president.
Even this week, he was still telling Tehran that the door to diplomacy still stood open.
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2010 10:14 AM by SumOfAllFears.)
04-11-2010 10:11 AM
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RobertN Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
Not sure I believe the article but who knows. THere is opinion and no sources named. Hard to know how accurate it is.
04-11-2010 02:53 PM
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Lord Stanley Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
I am resigned to a nuclear capable, unstable, religiously led Iranian theocracy being the new Middle Eastern hegemon.

Iran has beat the best American force projection (Iraq and Afghanistan) and the best American diplomacy (Bush and Obama) that the USA has to offer.

Time to start adapting our US foreign policy for the inevitable Iranian nuclear test and subsequent nuclear postuering.

Sigh.
04-12-2010 10:20 AM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-12-2010 10:20 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  I am resigned to a nuclear capable, unstable, religiously led Iranian theocracy being the new Middle Eastern hegemon.

Iran has beat the best American force projection (Iraq and Afghanistan) and the best American diplomacy (Bush and Obama) that the USA has to offer.

Time to start adapting our US foreign policy for the inevitable Iranian nuclear test and subsequent nuclear postuering.

Sigh.

Sadly I'm forced to agree. Neither the US or Europe has the stomach to deal with keeping nukes from Iran. Russia wants them to have one because it improves their power base. Iran getting a nuke would shoot oil prices through the roof, which is great for Russia.

Israel would be forced to react, though I'm thinking Obama and Europe would do anything they could to stop them.
04-12-2010 10:23 AM
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Lord Stanley Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
I think the Israeli time to react militarily has passed since the Iranian nuclear program is literally underground.

My guess is that Israel comes clean and publicly announces their long established defensive nuclear weapons program.

(Probably an SSBM or cruise missile equipped submarine or two permanently anchored one in the Med, one in the Indian Ocean plus nuclear tipped cruise missiles on ocean patrol vessels, along with nuclear ICBM missile and smart bombs tech on land. Probably a couple dumb bombs as well for last ditch offense.)

The ME then settles into an uneasy, shifty-eyed, sabre-rattling (but stable) MAD / sum-sum game nuclear game.
04-12-2010 10:51 AM
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Paul M Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
I saw Niner and now Lord posted, but I don't see their posts? Just see Sum and Robert. Never mind. Now that I posted, theirs are showing.
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2010 10:54 AM by Paul M.)
04-12-2010 10:53 AM
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SumOfAllFears Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
If Iran is allowed to stand with nukes, we are in for a whole new round of nuclear proliferation. France, Russia and Pakistan have their dirty little fingers all over Iran's Nuke Development. There is no way it stops there. And all those Corp making parts turning a blind's eye to their sales. Just what the Dr. ordered for a bad economy. Nuclear proliferation is good for business. This is how evil finds a foothold. A tradgy of epic porportions is unfolding right before our eyes, like a freight train wreck in slow motion. There will be no one to blame when a nuke has no return address. Its all just a body count.
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2010 06:48 PM by SumOfAllFears.)
04-12-2010 06:46 PM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
Want to "end the covert Iranian nuclear weapons program"??

Easy: Kill the Mullahs on the Guardian Council, Kill Mahmoud and some of his Deputies, Kill the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij Militia.

The Iranian "Government" will crumble in a week.

You don't have to bomb the nuclear facilities--you just have to take out the Leadership.
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2010 10:07 PM by WoodlandsOwl.)
04-12-2010 10:06 PM
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I45owl Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-11-2010 10:11 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  Iran has shown the world it no longer needs outside help for reprocessing uranium up to the critical 20 percent level, which is a short jump to weapons grade and the fissile core of a nuclear bomb. Tehran has made good use of every second allowed by the US-led world powers' lame efforts to dissuade it from its nuclear goals by means of partly-effective sanctions, attractive incentives and diplomatic engagement, a policy which gained momentum after Barack Obama became US president.
Even this week, he was still telling Tehran that the door to diplomacy still stood open.

This is an issue where Obama had very few options and none of them good. Any possibility for the US to act was during the Bush administration, so this falls squarely on that. FTR, I don't think they had any really good options, either.

(04-12-2010 10:20 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Iran has beat the best American force projection (Iraq and Afghanistan) and the best American diplomacy (Bush and Obama) that the USA has to offer.

It makes me very depressed to look at things like that, but you're absolutely right.

(04-12-2010 10:51 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  My guess is that Israel comes clean and publicly announces their long established defensive nuclear weapons program.

They have no real reason to - not anymore now than before. Perhaps they have less of an incentive to avoid acknowledging it.

(04-12-2010 10:06 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Easy: Kill the Mullahs on the Guardian Council, Kill Mahmoud and some of his Deputies, Kill the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij Militia.

The Iranian "Government" will crumble in a week.

The problem is that every viable leader is just as much in favor of nuclear program as the current regime. The only possible difference is whether they'd abstain from the weapons component of the program, and I somehow doubt that any leader would do so given the tremendous upside in national power that it would bring to Iran.
04-13-2010 09:20 AM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-13-2010 09:20 AM)I45owl Wrote:  
(04-11-2010 10:11 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  Iran has shown the world it no longer needs outside help for reprocessing uranium up to the critical 20 percent level, which is a short jump to weapons grade and the fissile core of a nuclear bomb. Tehran has made good use of every second allowed by the US-led world powers' lame efforts to dissuade it from its nuclear goals by means of partly-effective sanctions, attractive incentives and diplomatic engagement, a policy which gained momentum after Barack Obama became US president.
Even this week, he was still telling Tehran that the door to diplomacy still stood open.

This is an issue where Obama had very few options and none of them good. Any possibility for the US to act was during the Bush administration, so this falls squarely on that. FTR, I don't think they had any really good options, either.

(04-12-2010 10:20 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Iran has beat the best American force projection (Iraq and Afghanistan) and the best American diplomacy (Bush and Obama) that the USA has to offer.

It makes me very depressed to look at things like that, but you're absolutely right.

(04-12-2010 10:51 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  My guess is that Israel comes clean and publicly announces their long established defensive nuclear weapons program.

They have no real reason to - not anymore now than before. Perhaps they have less of an incentive to avoid acknowledging it.

(04-12-2010 10:06 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Easy: Kill the Mullahs on the Guardian Council, Kill Mahmoud and some of his Deputies, Kill the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij Militia.

The Iranian "Government" will crumble in a week.

The problem is that every viable leader is just as much in favor of nuclear program as the current regime. The only possible difference is whether they'd abstain from the weapons component of the program, and I somehow doubt that any leader would do so given the tremendous upside in national power that it would bring to Iran.

The only serious sanction that will get the Iranians attention would be to blockade their importation of refined gasoline.

In response the Iranians will try to close Hormuz, and will stop exporting crude. But the Chinese really need Iranian oil.

For sanctions to work, the Chinese have to play ball. And they will want something BIG in return.
04-13-2010 08:35 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #11
RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-13-2010 08:35 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  The only serious sanction that will get the Iranians attention would be to blockade their importation of refined gasoline.
In response the Iranians will try to close Hormuz, and will stop exporting crude. But the Chinese really need Iranian oil.
For sanctions to work, the Chinese have to play ball. And they will want something BIG in return.

Taiwan???
04-13-2010 08:56 PM
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-13-2010 08:56 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(04-13-2010 08:35 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  The only serious sanction that will get the Iranians attention would be to blockade their importation of refined gasoline.
In response the Iranians will try to close Hormuz, and will stop exporting crude. But the Chinese really need Iranian oil.
For sanctions to work, the Chinese have to play ball. And they will want something BIG in return.

Taiwan???

How about we promise not to give the Taiwanese nuclear weapons. Or how about no more interest on their US Bonds until they play ball. Or we just stop buying from them. W could play hard ball, but Obama is a pu$$y. China is at the root of the problem with North Korea, as well, so we could kill a commie state and a terrorist state with one stone.
(This post was last modified: 04-14-2010 12:31 AM by SumOfAllFears.)
04-14-2010 12:27 AM
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
The three breakthroughs on Iran's road to a nuclear weapon (nuclear testings)are radical enough to put Tehran in the driving seat in negotiations with the 5+1 Group (five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) over its illicit production of enriched uranium and their offer to process it outside Iran as a compromise gesture.
Iran has shown the world it no longer needs outside help for reprocessing uranium up to the critical 20 percent level, which is a short jump to weapons grade and the fissile core of a nuclear bomb. Tehran has made good use of every second allowed by the US-led world powers' lame efforts to dissuade it from its nuclear goals by means of partly-effective sanctions, attractive incentives and diplomatic engagement, a policy which gained momentum after Barack Obama became US president.
04-14-2010 02:26 AM
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Lord Stanley Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-13-2010 09:20 AM)I45owl Wrote:  
(04-12-2010 10:51 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  My guess is that Israel comes clean and publicly announces their long established defensive nuclear weapons program.

They have no real reason to - not anymore now than before. Perhaps they have less of an incentive to avoid acknowledging it.

Tell me more. I feel the opposite and want to better understand your notes.....
04-14-2010 10:16 AM
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RobertN Offline
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-12-2010 06:46 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  If Iran is allowed to stand with nukes, we are in for a whole new round of nuclear proliferation. France, Russia and Pakistan have their dirty little fingers all over Iran's Nuke Development. There is no way it stops there. And all those Corp making parts turning a blind's eye to their sales. Just what the Dr. ordered for a bad economy. Nuclear proliferation is good for business. This is how evil finds a foothold. A tradgy of epic porportions is unfolding right before our eyes, like a freight train wreck in slow motion. There will be no one to blame when a nuke has no return address. Its all just a body count.
Yeah. If Iran got them that would mean Israel would have to get them. Oh wait. They already have them. Nevermind.
04-14-2010 10:53 AM
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Post: #16
RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-14-2010 10:53 AM)RobertN Wrote:  
(04-12-2010 06:46 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  If Iran is allowed to stand with nukes, we are in for a whole new round of nuclear proliferation. France, Russia and Pakistan have their dirty little fingers all over Iran's Nuke Development. There is no way it stops there. And all those Corp making parts turning a blind's eye to their sales. Just what the Dr. ordered for a bad economy. Nuclear proliferation is good for business. This is how evil finds a foothold. A tradgy of epic porportions is unfolding right before our eyes, like a freight train wreck in slow motion. There will be no one to blame when a nuke has no return address. Its all just a body count.
Yeah. If Iran got them that would mean Israel would have to get them. Oh wait. They already have them. Nevermind.

Israel ever said their intention was to drive another group of people into the sea?

Didn't think so. Point, you don't have one.
04-14-2010 10:58 AM
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-14-2010 10:16 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  
(04-13-2010 09:20 AM)I45owl Wrote:  
(04-12-2010 10:51 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  My guess is that Israel comes clean and publicly announces their long established defensive nuclear weapons program.

They have no real reason to - not anymore now than before. Perhaps they have less of an incentive to avoid acknowledging it.

Tell me more. I feel the opposite and want to better understand your notes.....

Their policy is ambiguity. Everyone that needs to believe that they have nuclear weapons believes it and acts accordingly. They are under no treaty obligations to disclose or open facilities for inspections. As far as national pariahs grow, they're unlikely to eclipse Iran at this stage. The status quo wrt how the world views their nuclear presence has served them well, so why would they change? It seems to me the burden is on you to make that case.
(This post was last modified: 04-14-2010 11:53 AM by I45owl.)
04-14-2010 11:53 AM
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
Sounds like it's time for Mossad, the Navy Seals, and some Marine Scout Snipers to get together and take care of some business.
04-14-2010 11:56 AM
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
A Plutonium implosion device is a hell of a lot more complicated design than a uranium device. North Korea has tested two and they both were fizzles. It took the Pakis five tests before they got a good detonation.

An Uranium bomb is fairly simple-- two subcritial masses of U-235 are brought together to form a critical mass. This is a "Little Boy" bomb.
We didn't even live test the bomb design before we dropped it on Hiroshima.

The Iranians surely realize that they will get only one opportunity to demonstrate a nuclear device--and it better work the first time, otherwise the IAF (as well as Iran's neighbors) will be bombing Iranian targets left and right.
04-14-2010 12:45 PM
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RE: Iran's bomb-making plutonium facilities close to completion
(04-14-2010 10:58 AM)Rebel Wrote:  
(04-14-2010 10:53 AM)RobertN Wrote:  
(04-12-2010 06:46 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  If Iran is allowed to stand with nukes, we are in for a whole new round of nuclear proliferation. France, Russia and Pakistan have their dirty little fingers all over Iran's Nuke Development. There is no way it stops there. And all those Corp making parts turning a blind's eye to their sales. Just what the Dr. ordered for a bad economy. Nuclear proliferation is good for business. This is how evil finds a foothold. A tradgy of epic porportions is unfolding right before our eyes, like a freight train wreck in slow motion. There will be no one to blame when a nuke has no return address. Its all just a body count.
Yeah. If Iran got them that would mean Israel would have to get them. Oh wait. They already have them. Nevermind.

Israel ever said their intention was to drive another group of people into the sea?

Didn't think so. Point, you don't have one.
You are probably right but they have been TRYING to do it by FORCE WITHOUT saying it.
04-14-2010 12:52 PM
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