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Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
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Post: #21
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
Liberals don't like Rasmussen because he gives them news they don't like, and damn the historical accuracy of his polling.
02-16-2010 09:05 AM
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Paul M Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
That's what makes it all the more baffling (not really, we are dealing with liberals), Rasmussen has a long term, proven accuracy record.
02-16-2010 09:17 AM
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Smaug Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-15-2010 10:27 PM)GilWinant Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 09:01 PM)Smaug Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 08:50 PM)GilWinant Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 08:42 PM)Smaug Wrote:  Did I hear correctly that Bayh bowed out the day before the qualifying deadline for Indiana's primary?

If so, it would appear he's decided to screw his party.

He screwed the GOP. The Democratic party will be able to select whomever they want to be on the ballot because there is nobody registered on their side for the primary. The GOP will be stuck with the "also-rans" who were willing to challenge Bayh. He didn't leave enough time for the strong GOP candidates to get qualified for the ballot.

You don't see a Democratic free-for-all going all the way to November?

It'll be political cannibalism. They'll have to run against each other AND the Republican.

How do you see a Democratic free-for-all without a primary? The state Democratic party will likely pick Bart Peterson or Jonathan Weinzapfel to run against whomever wins the GOP primary. Baron Hill is another possibility, but rumor is that he will run against Pence or Rokita for the Governor's office in two years.

So, the party will anoint a candidate nobody voted for.

That'll go over well with John Q.
02-16-2010 09:28 AM
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Post: #24
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
Rasmussen the most accurate pollster is just another right wing talking point.

Here from the 2000 elction

Rasmussen judged one of most inaccurate polls in 2000!
http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

A statement by the National Council on Public Polls'
Polling Review Board

January 3, 2001

PRESIDENTIAL POLL PERFORMANCE 2000

(snip)

The 2000 election was a tie between Bush and Gore and was the closest election since the Kennedy-Nixon election in 1960. Democrat Gore had a slight edge in the CBS and Zogby polls, while seven of the other polls leaned to Republican Bush. The Harris poll had it tied. Four years ago, all 9 polls erred in favor of overstating Democratic Clinton. Challenger Nader was overstated by 7 of the 10 polls this year. Two got the Nader vote correct. All other polls overstated Nader's vote. Third party candidates typically get less support in the election than they do in the final pre-election polls.

Two other organizations used methods that previously had not been used. Harris Interactive conducted its polls on the Internet among a panel of e-mail users and forecast a tie. Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll was off by 4.5 percentage points on each of the top two candidates. Rasmussen had its interviews conducted by a computer playing a recorded voice with no live interviewer intervening.

In 2008 the weeks leading up to the election he showed McCain the closest of any of the polls. It wasn't until the last week did he show Obama's lead expanding. He's a partisan hack.
02-16-2010 09:34 AM
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DrTorch Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-16-2010 09:34 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  In 2008 the weeks leading up to the election he showed McCain the closest of any of the polls. It wasn't until the last week did he show Obama's lead expanding. He's a partisan hack.

I guess that call for 'evidence' vs 'opinion' was lost on you. More fallout from those who accept "consensus science."
02-16-2010 10:45 AM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
Out of morbid curiosity I took you off ignore just for the chuckle I knew your post would give me. You didn't disappoint.03-lmfao

(02-16-2010 09:34 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Here from the 2000 elction

LOL!!! Why don't we try 2004 and 2008.

2004
Rass - Bush 50.2%/Kerry 48.5%
Actual - Bush 50.7%/Kerry 48.3%

linky

2008 I've already posted. However to back me up here's an independent study on 2008 polling. Lookie who is number 1.

Fordham study

It's also cute how you selectively bold what supports your moronic view. Let's point out some key sections you hoped everyone wouldn't see.

Quote:Two other organizations used methods that previously had not been used. Harris Interactive conducted its polls on the Internet among a panel of e-mail users and forecast a tie. Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll was off by 4.5 percentage points on each of the top two candidates. Rasmussen had its interviews conducted by a computer playing a recorded voice with no live interviewer intervening.

Ah ha!!! The tried and true partisan poll skewing method of using a computer interviewer instead of a live one. The oldest form of partisan hackery in the books!!!!03-hissyfit03-lmfao

Not that I expect any of these facts or context to matter to you.

I think I'll leave you off ignore. Now that I look at you for what you are I no longer get upset when you ignore facts, logic and reason. It's just who you are. You don't yell at a duck for quacking.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2010 10:58 AM by Ninerfan1.)
02-16-2010 10:50 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
Regardless of your opinion of him, Bayh made some provocative comments here

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_ts1134
02-16-2010 04:20 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #28
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-16-2010 04:20 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  Regardless of your opinion of him, Bayh made some provocative comments here

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_ts1134

Yes he did.
02-16-2010 04:34 PM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-16-2010 04:20 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  Regardless of your opinion of him, Bayh made some provocative comments here

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_ts1134

Can't argue with anything he said.
02-16-2010 04:47 PM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
"Bayh argued that the American people needed to deliver a "shock" to Congress by voting incumbents out in mass and replacing them with people interested in reforming the process and governing for the good of the people, rather than deep-pocketed special-interest groups."

04-rock
02-16-2010 05:36 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
Even Congress sick of Congress; moderates leaving

By LAURIE KELLMAN and HENRY C. JACKSON (AP)

WASHINGTON — The moderate middle is disappearing from Congress.

Evan Bayh is just the latest senator to forgo a re-election bid, joining a growing line of pragmatic, find-a-way politicians who are abandoning Washington. Still here: ever-more-polarized colleagues locked in gridlock — exactly what voters say they don't like about politics in the nation's capital.

Politics runs in cycles, and the Senate has seen flights of self-styled centrists before. In 1996, for example, 10 senators who could boast strong bipartisan credentials chose to retire rather than re-up. Many of them complained how lonely a place the middle ground of American politics had become. But to some, the center has become even lonelier.

More than their feelings are at stake. The moderates in the middle are the ones who tend to make deals and sometimes resolve standoffs blocking decisions that affect programs — not to mention taxes — that touch virtually every American.

Former Sen. William Cohen says what's happening now is a continuation of the "hollowing out of the middle." An article he wrote when he left his Senate seat in 1996, lamenting partisan gridlock, could just as easily be reprinted now, subbing his name for that of Bayh, the Indiana Democrat who announced on Monday he won't run again.

"There is this sort of purging in both parties," Cohen said in an interview. "They insist on moving to the left or moving to the right, and I think you're seeing over the years the moderates have disappeared and continue to disappear."

The few left in the middle can gain outsized power to decide the fate of closely fought issues. But that comes at a price more and more of them say is too high: crushing pressure to conform, shrill media barbs and the increased fight for cash to shape one's own campaign narrative.

"I simply reached a conclusion that I could get more done to help my state and the American people by doing something in the private sector," said Bayh, the two-term senator and former governor, on ABC's Good Morning America on Tuesday. "Real accomplishments in a real way."

That's an extraordinary statement on the anniversary of the $787 billion stimulus package that was supposed to energize the economy. Rather than heed President Barack Obama's appeal for pragmatism, Congress is losing its value as a problem-solver and becoming more unworkable, according to Bayh.

Polls say voters hate that about national politics. Lawmakers profess to dislike the polarization, too, but they still engage in it, on the House or Senate floor, in private meetings, or both. And on the campaign trail, the truth is there's cash to be made by taking sides and, in effect, becoming a dependable brand.

"If you're on either fringe of the party, you have an easier time raising money," said one who would know, Sen. Arlen Specter, who left the GOP for the Democrats when he found he could not win a Pennsylvania Republican primary. "I have to work a lot harder than somebody who has an ideological base."

Calling from a fundraising swing through California, Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee, Specter said sticking around awhile — three decades in his case — can produce a brand of independence he is hoping fits the public's populist streak.

"I think the independents are going to be in a position to pick the winners and losers," he said.

And moderates? An endangered species?

Moderates, said Darrell West, vice president and director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution, are "going the way of the dinosaur."

"Soon we're going be able to go to museums to the see the skeletons of the centrists and learn about what they were," West said.

It could be argued that fresh blood may be a good thing for an institution many view as broken.

But some fresh faces are turning down the chance to run, even after being asked by the president.

In Illinois, a would-be strong candidate, Lisa Madigan, spurned Obama's pressure to run. That could reflect Obama's lack of pull — one year into office — but it also says something about the desirability of serving on Capitol Hill given the public's disdain for Congress.

The lament of partisan gridlock is a well-worn element of lawmakers' farewell speeches. Former Republican Senate leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, a physician, lectured his colleagues about it on the way out the door in 2006. Former Republican Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi appeared with former Democratic President Bill Clinton and former GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich earlier this year to urge the parties to get along.

But tellingly, no Republicans were present in the Senate when Democrat Paul Kirk, turning over the seat held by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy to Republican Scott Brown earlier this month, spoke about the lack of comity in the chamber.

Not so long ago, Senate seats were among the most sought-after positions in the land. They meant power and prestige, some posturing but also some significant problem-solving.

Now, many believe the $174,000 salary just isn't worth it.

Besides the personal costs — being a lawmaker means being screamed at during summer town hall meetings and vilified around the clock in multimedia fashion — the more polarized Congress becomes, the less its members can accomplish.

There's "too much narrow ideology and not enough practical problem-solving" on Capitol Hill, Bayh said as he announced his retirement. "I do not love Congress."

Veteran Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., said Bayh could do more to change that by staying.

"I don't understand how you make things better from the outside. I share the frustration, but I would have hoped he would have stayed around."

Plenty of lawmakers are still hoping to do that. But a long and bipartisan list of Senate leaders who have chosen to fight for re-election — from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada to California Democrat Barbara Boxer and Sen. John McCain, the GOP's nominee for president last year — are feeling the anti-incumbent squeeze.

Others are saying the congressional life is simply not worth it, and the list of casualties is bipartisan.

Bayh and veteran Democratic Sens. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., are choosing to retire. So is Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., and other GOP House members from Michigan, Indiana, Arkansas and Arizona have announced retirements.

Vice President Joe Biden's son, Beau, chose not to run for a legacy seat in Delaware. No Kennedys, let alone political heavyweights of any sort, ran for the Ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts.

AP Political Writer Liz Sidoti contributed to this report.

Copyright 2010 The Associated Press.
02-16-2010 06:16 PM
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GilWinant Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
For those touting Rasmussen's past performance, I would caution that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Rasmussen went to a new likely voter screen last year that produces results vastly different than other pollsters. I prefer to look at the whole spectrum of polling rather than any individual pollster, and that seems like a prudent choice if we assume that pollsters aren't intentionally building bias into their polls. Looking at poll averages is a poor man's way of increasing the sample size, which should increase the accuracy. My problem with Rasmussen's new likely voter screen is that no other pollster has adopted anything remotely close. This makes Rasmussen's results skew heavily in the GOP's favor in most cases. I now look at them as a partisan poll becuase of this, which means I discount most of their polling. As someone pointed out, Research 2000 had Bayh +16 against one potential opponent while Rasmussen had him +3. There is no valid reason that two reputable pollsters should be that far apart when they are both sampling similar populations. Anyone with an objective bone in their body has to look as Rasmussen's results and admit that they skew to the right in comparison to other pollsters. We'll know in about 8 months whether Rasmussen is right or wrong with their voter screens. If Rasmussen is wrong, we will see their election polling swing away from the GOP as the November elections near, because those elections provide an objective benchmark. Meanwhile, other pollsters will remain relatively stable. If Rasmussen is right, the scenario will be flipped. Rasmussen has been historically accurate in their polling, but we must consider that Rasmussen has never deviated from other pollsters like they do today and they have never shown such blatantly partisan results. Other pollsters have also been accurate in the past, and their current polling looks very different from Rasmussen. So we shall see what comes of this.

As far as Bayh goes, he had no formitable challengers. That's why the Indiana media and politicians throughout Indiana were shocked when he opted not to run again. He was going to cruise to another term against all the GOP candidates because the powerful candidates opted not to challenge him. The cold, hard facts are that the best GOP challengers (Pence, Daniels, and Rokita) all backed out. Only the second-stringers were sent in to challenge Bayh. A senate seat had to be very enticing to Pence who wants to run for president in 2012 because the Senate is a much better springboard into a presidential campaign than the being a minority member in the House. Daniels is term-limited and will be out of the governor's office in two years, so a senate seat would also be very attractive to him since he too seems to have political ambitions far beyond Indiana. Rokita is going to run for governor in 2012. So I understand his reluctance to challenge Bayh even if he thought he could win. So I stand firmly behind my assertion that Rasmussen's polling doesn't match the political reality that is playing out. That is a huge red-flag for those wondering whether the Rasmussen polls are accurate.
02-17-2010 10:41 AM
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Post: #33
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
Bayh opted out.

That can only mean, either
1. His polling said he was in trouble, or
2. The whole process really is sick.

I think the more conservative elements on here are happy with either explanation. Some may believe both to be true, some may believe one or the other. But you can't argue against both of them, unless you stand for the proposition that Bayh is an idiot.
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2010 12:22 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
02-17-2010 12:22 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-17-2010 12:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Bayh opted out.

That can only mean, either
1. His polling said he was in trouble, or
2. The whole process really is sick.

I think the more conservative elements on here are happy with either explanation. Some may believe both to be true, some may believe one or the other. But you can't argue against both of them, unless you stand for the proposition that Bayh is an idiot.

There is the possibility that Bayh or a close family member is ill. If that were the case, he certainly took a bold stand on his way out.
02-17-2010 12:53 PM
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GilWinant Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-17-2010 12:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Bayh opted out.

That can only mean, either
1. His polling said he was in trouble, or
2. The whole process really is sick.

I think the more conservative elements on here are happy with either explanation. Some may believe both to be true, some may believe one or the other. But you can't argue against both of them, unless you stand for the proposition that Bayh is an idiot.

Could you elaborate on what you mean by "the whole process"?
02-17-2010 12:54 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #36
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-17-2010 12:54 PM)GilWinant Wrote:  
(02-17-2010 12:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Bayh opted out.
That can only mean, either
1. His polling said he was in trouble, or
2. The whole process really is sick.
I think the more conservative elements on here are happy with either explanation. Some may believe both to be true, some may believe one or the other. But you can't argue against both of them, unless you stand for the proposition that Bayh is an idiot.
Could you elaborate on what you mean by "the whole process"?

Can't see where it's needed. They're plain English words with generally-accepted meanings.

Are you confused by them? If so, how?
02-17-2010 05:00 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
It's possible a movement will emerge in Indiana trying to get John Mellencamp to run for Bayh's seat. That would be odd, but then again, Al Franken is the senator from Minnesota so who knows anymore? One thing is for certain, if Mellencamp runs, he won't have any problems getting the rights to music for his campaign stops.
02-17-2010 06:49 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-16-2010 09:28 AM)Smaug Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 10:27 PM)GilWinant Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 09:01 PM)Smaug Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 08:50 PM)GilWinant Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 08:42 PM)Smaug Wrote:  Did I hear correctly that Bayh bowed out the day before the qualifying deadline for Indiana's primary?

If so, it would appear he's decided to screw his party.

He screwed the GOP. The Democratic party will be able to select whomever they want to be on the ballot because there is nobody registered on their side for the primary. The GOP will be stuck with the "also-rans" who were willing to challenge Bayh. He didn't leave enough time for the strong GOP candidates to get qualified for the ballot.

You don't see a Democratic free-for-all going all the way to November?

It'll be political cannibalism. They'll have to run against each other AND the Republican.

How do you see a Democratic free-for-all without a primary? The state Democratic party will likely pick Bart Peterson or Jonathan Weinzapfel to run against whomever wins the GOP primary. Baron Hill is another possibility, but rumor is that he will run against Pence or Rokita for the Governor's office in two years.

So, the party will anoint a candidate nobody voted for.

That'll go over well with John Q.

Hello? Is this thing on?
02-18-2010 09:04 AM
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GilWinant Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-17-2010 05:00 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(02-17-2010 12:54 PM)GilWinant Wrote:  
(02-17-2010 12:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Bayh opted out.
That can only mean, either
1. His polling said he was in trouble, or
2. The whole process really is sick.
I think the more conservative elements on here are happy with either explanation. Some may believe both to be true, some may believe one or the other. But you can't argue against both of them, unless you stand for the proposition that Bayh is an idiot.
Could you elaborate on what you mean by "the whole process"?

Can't see where it's needed. They're plain English words with generally-accepted meanings.

Are you confused by them? If so, how?

Your snarky, juvenile response is unnecessary. If you don't want to have civil conversation, just say so. "...the whole process" could have meant our entire process of governance, the process Bayh chose to retire, or the process by which his replacement as a candidate will be chosen. Hopefully you can now see where elaboration is needed.
02-18-2010 10:54 AM
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GilWinant Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Bayh (D-IN) Won't seek Senate re-election
(02-18-2010 09:04 AM)Smaug Wrote:  
(02-16-2010 09:28 AM)Smaug Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 10:27 PM)GilWinant Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 09:01 PM)Smaug Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 08:50 PM)GilWinant Wrote:  
(02-15-2010 08:42 PM)Smaug Wrote:  Did I hear correctly that Bayh bowed out the day before the qualifying deadline for Indiana's primary?

If so, it would appear he's decided to screw his party.

He screwed the GOP. The Democratic party will be able to select whomever they want to be on the ballot because there is nobody registered on their side for the primary. The GOP will be stuck with the "also-rans" who were willing to challenge Bayh. He didn't leave enough time for the strong GOP candidates to get qualified for the ballot.

You don't see a Democratic free-for-all going all the way to November?

It'll be political cannibalism. They'll have to run against each other AND the Republican.

How do you see a Democratic free-for-all without a primary? The state Democratic party will likely pick Bart Peterson or Jonathan Weinzapfel to run against whomever wins the GOP primary. Baron Hill is another possibility, but rumor is that he will run against Pence or Rokita for the Governor's office in two years.

So, the party will anoint a candidate nobody voted for.

That'll go over well with John Q.

Hello? Is this thing on?

The candidate has a free pass because Bayh didn't leave enough time for anyone else to get on the ballot, so I can't see the voters blaming the candidate for that. There are several Democrats who are reasonably popular in the state, and the state central committee will likely select one of those. I don't see any major backlash over the selection process.
02-18-2010 10:57 AM
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