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High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
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Machiavelli Offline
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Post: #61
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
Every dime that is associated with keeping the Straits of Hormuz open should be tacked on to a gallon of gas. Every last dime!!
02-02-2010 01:51 PM
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Paul M Offline
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Post: #62
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
But then we would be paying twice.
02-02-2010 02:04 PM
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Post: #63
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
(02-02-2010 01:51 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Every dime that is associated with keeping the Straits of Hormuz open should be tacked on to a gallon of gas. Every last dime!!

I agree. The economy isn't f'ed up enough. We can one-up this ****.
02-02-2010 02:12 PM
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SumOfAllFears Offline
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Post: #64
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
(02-02-2010 01:51 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Every dime that is associated with keeping the Straits of Hormuz open should be tacked on to a gallon of gas. Every last dime!!

The bulk of the oil exported through the Strait of Hormuz travels to Asia, the United States and Western Europe. About three-quarters of Japan's oil imports and about 50 percent of China's pass through this strait.

Could we expect a little help from other countries? Obama will have to ask nicely. He has practice bowing.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2010 02:19 PM by SumOfAllFears.)
02-02-2010 02:18 PM
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smn1256 Offline
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Post: #65
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
(02-02-2010 02:18 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  
(02-02-2010 01:51 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Every dime that is associated with keeping the Straits of Hormuz open should be tacked on to a gallon of gas. Every last dime!!

The bulk of the oil exported through the Strait of Hormuz travels to Asia, the United States and Western Europe. About three-quarters of Japan's oil imports and about 50 percent of China's pass through this strait.

Could we expect a little help from other countries? Obama will have to ask nicely. He has practice bowing.

Good point. I'm tired of always paying for everything and then being told we're not paying enough.
02-02-2010 02:55 PM
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DrTorch Offline
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Post: #66
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
(02-01-2010 04:42 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The problem is that even after they spend all this money what they will have is crap systems.
If we had the equivalent of a Shinkansen or TGV or Eurostar, Americans would ride it. I would think that for business travel in the northeast corridor, there would be a high demand.

Then put a business plan together. I don't think it will work, so I'd rather not have my money confiscated for a plan that is suspect. If it does work, you'll be even more rich than I, not to mention I will be a humbled customer of your service.

But, it doesn't take much study into the numbers to see that they don't add up to a viable, cost-effective solution

http://kcet.org/local/blogs/city_of_angl...iders.html

And my guess is Owl, you're really good at crunching these sorts of numbers. So I'm puzzled why you persist w/ the hand-waving arguments instead of quantified assessments.

Fact is high speed rail doesn't make money in Europe. It kinda sorta (w/ gov't help) makes money in Japan. It's pretty much doomed in the US.

Quote:The reason nobody uses the "high speed trains" running in that corridor today is because they are crap. To extrapolate that into a conclusion that people wouldn't ride good trains is a mistake.

Quote:The really good high-speed trains are almost as far removed from what we call "high speed trains" as space travel is from hitchhiking.

You do the conversation a disservice w/ such hyperbolic analogies.

Nevertheless, they aren't using them where they aren't crap.

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/20...pdate.html

This isn't an exception. High speed rail in Europe rarely meets the requisite number of riders to break even from a cost perspective.

And if it's the environment you're concerned with (or energy costs, or becoming free from foreign oil, etc) Passenger rail doesn't help that at all.

[Image: transenergy-500x443.png]
02-02-2010 03:06 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #67
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
Problem is that we import 13 million barrels of oil a day, and as long as we continue to do that we are going to have 20-year-olds dying in the deserts of Asia. I don't know how to put a price on that, but it's pretty high. And that cost is not in the economics you are looking at.

I also don't know how to factor that into a business plan. But it's a real cost. So is the damage we are doing to the environment with emissions--whether you believe in global warming or not. There are a whole bunch of costs that we aren't factoring in, that when we do consider them, then it's obvious that we have to do things to get our oil imports down to zero.

The Obama energy "plan" isn't going to do much to address this. We will import more oil in 2015 than we do today if he gets his way. Solar and windmills and putting siding on your house may save "energy," but none of those save any appreciable amount of "oil." Right now, we really do not have a good renewable substitute for oil, and there's really not one on the horizon. So we need to do what we can.

Converting to electricity as a prime mover for more uses is a good move. We need to generate more electricity, but we can handle that with domestic natural gas, domestic coal, nuclear, wind, and solar. So if we convert from a gasoline/diesel car to an electric train, we may be ahead of the game even if the train uses more Btu's per passenger-mile, as long as those Btu's come from something other than oil. These are real considerations at the society level, but there's no way to make them pay off at the individual entrepereneur level.

I'm a free-market guy, but the prices in that free market have to be adjusted to reflect reality. And right now, the price of gasoline is way too low here to reflect the economic reality. So we are making bad decisions that will bite us in the butt someday. And that someday is not too far in the future if we don't make some changes.

I've ridden the TGV and the Eurostar and the Cisalpino and the Shinkansen. I've also ridden the POS train that runs from Washington to New York. I really don't think my analogy is that far out of line. There is simply no comparison.
02-02-2010 06:39 PM
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DrTorch Offline
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Post: #68
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
(02-02-2010 06:39 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Problem is that we import 13 million barrels of oil a day, and as long as we continue to do that we are going to have 20-year-olds dying in the deserts of Asia. I don't know how to put a price on that, but it's pretty high. And that cost is not in the economics you are looking at.

I also don't know how to factor that into a business plan. But it's a real cost. So is the damage we are doing to the environment with emissions--whether you believe in global warming or not. There are a whole bunch of costs that we aren't factoring in, that when we do consider them, then it's obvious that we have to do things to get our oil imports down to zero.

The Obama energy "plan" isn't going to do much to address this. We will import more oil in 2015 than we do today if he gets his way. Solar and windmills and putting siding on your house may save "energy," but none of those save any appreciable amount of "oil." Right now, we really do not have a good renewable substitute for oil, and there's really not one on the horizon. So we need to do what we can.

Converting to electricity as a prime mover for more uses is a good move. We need to generate more electricity, but we can handle that with domestic natural gas, domestic coal, nuclear, wind, and solar. So if we convert from a gasoline/diesel car to an electric train, we may be ahead of the game even if the train uses more Btu's per passenger-mile, as long as those Btu's come from something other than oil.

Natural gas and coal both release emissions into the air. If that's one of your considerations, then trains make that matter worse.

Quote: These are real considerations at the society level, but there's no way to make them pay off at the individual entrepereneur level.

I understand your point. I'm not sure I believe the soldiers dying strictly for oil, but perhaps I'm naive. I figure we've got troops deployed in S. Korea facing north that say we're worried about lunatics who want to destroy all infidels of the world as our motivation.

Quote:I'm a free-market guy, but the prices in that free market have to be adjusted to reflect reality. And right now, the price of gasoline is way too low here to reflect the economic reality.

That's a very different answer than funding trains. Assuming you're right, then raise the price of oil, and we'll see what the market brings.

I see no good in spending billions in infrastructure for trains, only to have the opportunity to spend millions more each year subsidizing their existence.

It's the epitome of White Elephant.

Quote:I've ridden the TGV and the Eurostar and the Cisalpino and the Shinkansen. I've also ridden the POS train that runs from Washington to New York. I really don't think my analogy is that far out of line. There is simply no comparison.

Really, comparing a hitchhiker to space travel? Hmmm
02-02-2010 09:10 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
I'd probably rather hitchhike than ride that Washington-New York train again. It really is dreadful.

But I will confess, a trip to space would be more of a kick than riding the Shinkansen.
02-02-2010 10:38 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
(02-02-2010 09:10 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  
(02-02-2010 06:39 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Problem is that we import 13 million barrels of oil a day, and as long as we continue to do that we are going to have 20-year-olds dying in the deserts of Asia. I don't know how to put a price on that, but it's pretty high. And that cost is not in the economics you are looking at.

I also don't know how to factor that into a business plan. But it's a real cost. So is the damage we are doing to the environment with emissions--whether you believe in global warming or not. There are a whole bunch of costs that we aren't factoring in, that when we do consider them, then it's obvious that we have to do things to get our oil imports down to zero.

The Obama energy "plan" isn't going to do much to address this. We will import more oil in 2015 than we do today if he gets his way. Solar and windmills and putting siding on your house may save "energy," but none of those save any appreciable amount of "oil." Right now, we really do not have a good renewable substitute for oil, and there's really not one on the horizon. So we need to do what we can.

Converting to electricity as a prime mover for more uses is a good move. We need to generate more electricity, but we can handle that with domestic natural gas, domestic coal, nuclear, wind, and solar. So if we convert from a gasoline/diesel car to an electric train, we may be ahead of the game even if the train uses more Btu's per passenger-mile, as long as those Btu's come from something other than oil.

Natural gas and coal both release emissions into the air. If that's one of your considerations, then trains make that matter worse.

Quote: These are real considerations at the society level, but there's no way to make them pay off at the individual entrepereneur level.

I understand your point. I'm not sure I believe the soldiers dying strictly for oil, but perhaps I'm naive. I figure we've got troops deployed in S. Korea facing north that say we're worried about lunatics who want to destroy all infidels of the world as our motivation.

Quote:I'm a free-market guy, but the prices in that free market have to be adjusted to reflect reality. And right now, the price of gasoline is way too low here to reflect the economic reality.

That's a very different answer than funding trains. Assuming you're right, then raise the price of oil, and we'll see what the market brings.

I see no good in spending billions in infrastructure for trains, only to have the opportunity to spend millions more each year subsidizing their existence.

It's the epitome of White Elephant.

Quote:I've ridden the TGV and the Eurostar and the Cisalpino and the Shinkansen. I've also ridden the POS train that runs from Washington to New York. I really don't think my analogy is that far out of line. There is simply no comparison.

Really, comparing a hitchhiker to space travel? Hmmm

Natural gas generally burns cleaner than oil, coal obviously doesn't. One area where technology could help a lot is if we could make some quantum leap on coal gasification/liquification, either to reduce the CO2 produced or to find a use for that CO2.

The problem is that we absolutely need to get out of the oil importing business, and we really can't get there without converting a lot of car passengers to train passengers. The numbers just don't work.

I'm guessing that drill here, drill now would ultimately knock off about 1/4 of what we now import. Past that, we need all hands on deck to have a chance. That means we will have to do some things that don't make economic sense until you factor in the external costs. Those externals make trains work. That's why Europe subsidizes them. And good trains really are a great way to travel.
02-02-2010 10:43 PM
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mlb Offline
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RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
(02-01-2010 12:39 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  I want to know where the New York to Chicago high speed rail that went through Cleveland went to. Who in the hell wants to o to Cincin nasti. I would love to know the backstory on that one. Probably Columbus got a hold of the plans and wanted the rail to go through them. That Ohio rail is the dumbest thing I see. Link Cleveland to New York and Chicago.

It's funny you say that... the people in Southwest Ohio would love to just separate from Cleveland, as it is a wasteland. "The Mistake by the Lake" is the usual name. Southwest Ohio is fiscally conservative, socially conservative, and in general does not want to be associated with anything in Columbus and especially Cleveland. Maybe it is time to cut the state in half and let you guys figure out a way to support yourself without the high tech and big companies in southwest Ohio...
02-03-2010 09:01 AM
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DrTorch Offline
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Post: #72
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
(02-02-2010 10:43 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The problem is that we absolutely need to get out of the oil importing business, and we really can't get there without converting a lot of car passengers to train passengers. The numbers just don't work.

Here's where we disagree. I just don't see how the numbers work with trains.

Even taking your assertion as a given, that we need to stop importing oil, trains worsen the situation. That infrastructure doesn't get built w/o lots of heavy equipment...burning diesel or gas. Many trains are currently diesel. People drive a good distance to get to train stations.

Anyway, at this point, I'm not sure if you're pushing for high-speed/long distance trains, light commuter rail, or both. But passenger trains fail in all those scenarios.

Take light rail. You could buy everyone in Phx a Prius for less than the rail line cost to build. And you'd save millions in operating costs year to year.

Trains also displace buses, which are far more flexible and cost effective. They serve their purpose to the public better, and at better costs. Yet the push for rail inevitably reduces the buses that run, because costs need to be cut from somewhere.

Anyway, the more you dig into the real costs of rail, the more apparent how ineffective it is. I'd say this current recession would be helped appreciably by getting rid of light rail all over the country, and insisting that AmTrak make its own way in the world.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2010 09:08 AM by DrTorch.)
02-03-2010 09:06 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #73
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
I don't like light rail. If the traffic density isn't heavy enough to support separate-grade rail, you are better off with buses. I think we agree on that. As much as possible, make the buses electric trolley buses and let them run down the medians of boulevards; that makes a lot more sense than light rail to me.

I don't like diesel trains. We need to get to where all passenger trains, and as many freight trains as possible, are electric. And then generate the electricity with nuclear.

We are only going to reduce our oil usage by making something other than oil the prime mover for as many applications as possible. If it's all Priuses, that's certainly better than nothing. But I think there are cases where the density will support trains. And if the density is marginal now, running a rail line will influence future development patterns to favor places with easy access.

That's the big issue in Houston now. This developer wants this route because that's where he has properties, that developer wants that route because that's where he has properties. And Houston politics has always been the dance of the developers.

We need to wean ourselves of 13 million barrels of imported oil. Drill here, drill now can take care of 2-4 million; importing sugar can ethanol can take care of another 2-4. Yes, we're still importing, but it's cheaper (or at least cheaper than oil will be if there's a price spike) and it gives us some leverage to play ethanol agianst oil. And giving Latin America a new cash crop helps us with our illegal immigration and drug problems. These things get us about halfway there (maybe a little less).

The rest is all going to be bits and pieces. There just isn't anything else that will make a major contribution. We are probably going to need 10 different things, each helping us less than a million barrels a day. When something like switchgrass ethanol comes online, it can replace sugar cane, but best guess is 25-50 years, and we'll die waiting on it if we don't do something now. Hydrogen cars are sexy, but right now it takes significantly more energy to extract the hydrogen than the yield, and the delivery infrastructure is going to be a nightmare. Without a quantum jump in electricity generation and transmission, we're probably limited to a million or two electric cars, and that probably saves us less than a million barrels a day. CNG is bieng touted right now, but I think we are better off moving to electricity as a prime mover for more applications and using more natural gas to generate electricity. One of the many dumb-@$$ things Carter did was to regulate against natural gas, that's why we have the apparent bubble now. That bubble looks big because we are underutilizing gas because of Carter, but if we step up utilization, the denominator gets bigger, the numerator stays the same, and the resulting reserve life goes down big-time. What we should do is make the numerator bigger, but that means "drill here, drill now" and we already discussed that.

This is the problem with the alternative energy approach. There are alternatives to "energy" but there aren't good alternatives to "oil." And oil is fungible, but energy is not entirely so.

That and the numbers. The numbers are just so big that you need a lot more than the alternatives crowd will have any ability to deliver in our lifetimes. That's with a crash program, which we certainly fall far short of right now.

So whatever little piece trains get you is useful in the final calculus.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2010 01:16 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
02-03-2010 01:14 PM
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Post: #74
RE: High-Speed Rail Grants Announced
Where are we going to store the nuclear waste? We can't even find a place to store the minimal amount we have now.
02-03-2010 03:39 PM
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