(11-21-2009 11:32 PM)CatsClaw Wrote:  

(11-21-2009 06:56 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(11-21-2009 06:03 PM)CatsClaw Wrote:  By the way, not to get on an expansion theme, but this is why we need about 10 teams in the league. That way, when someone like UConn is down, we can still have at least 6 bowl-eligible teams to fill out slots and keep the bowls happy.

I don't think the number of bowl eligable teams will increase at all with another team. If you add team to the Big East, you are also increasing the number of conference games and since most BCS teams do better non-conference than in conference (over 500 out of conference in other words), another team could hurt just as easily as help.

Look at the PAC-10 which has 10 teams, but has 6 bowl tie ins and doesn't even always fill them thanks to 9 conference games.

All the Big East would have to do is add one conference game per team. So the Big East would only have to have 8 conference games. And you have a much better chance of having 6 out of 10 teams eligible then 6 out of 8. This conference is just to small.

True that it would only be to 8 conference games, but the point still stands. The more conference games you add, the less teams on average are available. Now this might be more than made up for with 1 extra team, but it might not as well (more likely it would vary year to year).

The Big Ten is the next closest example which plays 8 conference games. It has 11 teams and a couple of years ago it had 10 teams bowl eligible (2 of which didn't go), but other than that it has had 7 almost like clockwork.

Again, I can't say for sure how it would work out in the Big East (schedules and parity in conference might make a big difference), but it's far from a guarantee that an extra team would make a difference on average in the number of bowl eligible teams.

(11-22-2009 01:29 AM)Stookey57 Wrote:  

(11-22-2009 12:15 AM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  Speaking of the St Pete Bowl, is there a chance that it could see a UCF/USF game this yr? For a bowl struggling to seel tickets, it seems that would be a sellout

Jackson

the ucf nights are 7-4, i say it's a very good chance they play ea. other..

Her is something you need to know about the St Pete bowl. Its not a large capacity, they dont even have seats one one side of field so in reality they have about 33 k seats and has some very bad seat locations. Their goal is to alternte having UCF or USF every year that wil get them around 25k-30K so they will likely take UCF this year and hope USF falls in their laps next year.

(11-22-2009 10:11 AM)Cubanbull Wrote:  

(11-22-2009 01:29 AM)Stookey57 Wrote:  

(11-22-2009 12:15 AM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  Speaking of the St Pete Bowl, is there a chance that it could see a UCF/USF game this yr? For a bowl struggling to seel tickets, it seems that would be a sellout

Jackson

the ucf nights are 7-4, i say it's a very good chance they play ea. other..

Her is something you need to know about the St Pete bowl. Its not a large capacity, they dont even have seats one one side of field so in reality they have about 33 k seats and has some very bad seat locations. Their goal is to alternte having UCF or USF every year that wil get them around 25k-30K so they will likely take UCF this year and hope USF falls in their laps next year.

Correct, you will see either UCF or USF in this bowl, but not both. They want one local team and one other team that will bring some fans, like RU or UConn (unlike Memphis last year)

(11-21-2009 11:12 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Scratch the Gator for the Irish. They don't deserve ANY bowl game, IMO. And after they lose next week, the rest of the nation will agree with me. Even with a watered down schedule, the Irish can't do better than .500...

Deserve has nothing to do with it. $$$$ has everything to do with it. If they win, mark it in stone, ND to gator bowl. If they are 6-6, they will end up in a Gmac type bowl game.

Forget Notre Dame beating Stanford @Stanford. The Irish will go down again for their 5th loss in a row. You can take that to the bank...

(11-22-2009 11:21 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Deserve has nothing to do with it. $$$$ has everything to do with it. If they win, mark it in stone, ND to gator bowl. If they are 6-6, they will end up in a Gmac type bowl game.

Spot on there. 7-5 ND trumps 10-2 Pitt or 11-1 Cincinnati, in the Gator comittee's eyes.

That said, I don't think a 7-5 ND is, at all, likely.

(11-22-2009 11:31 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Forget Notre Dame beating Stanford @Stanford. The Irish will go down again for their 5th loss in a row. You can take that to the bank...

I am thinking about going to that game cheering on the Cardinals. Would love to see ND get another L in Palo Alto.

Be sure to wear your UConn gear prominently. I'll look for you in the crowd...

(11-22-2009 01:50 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  

(11-22-2009 11:31 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Forget Notre Dame beating Stanford @Stanford. The Irish will go down again for their 5th loss in a row. You can take that to the bank...

I am thinking about going to that game cheering on the Cardinals. Would love to see ND get another L in Palo Alto.

There are only 10 BCS sopts and seven of them are spoken for. At this time those are
Alabama-Fla winner
Texas
Oregon
Cincy or-Pitt
TCU
Ga Tech
Ohio State


That leaves three at large
Alabama -Flarida loser
Boise state
One other team from the five contenders left. So if you do not claim one of the above spots you have one chance in four or five of being picked, whoever you might be.

(11-22-2009 02:06 PM)Arrow Wrote:  

(11-22-2009 01:50 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  

(11-22-2009 11:31 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Forget Notre Dame beating Stanford @Stanford. The Irish will go down again for their 5th loss in a row. You can take that to the bank...

I am thinking about going to that game cheering on the Cardinals. Would love to see ND get another L in Palo Alto.

There are only 10 BCS sopts and seven of them are spoken for. At this time those are
Alabama-Fla winner
Texas
Oregon
Cincy or-Pitt
TCU
Ga Tech
Ohio State


That leaves three at large
Alabama -Flarida loser
Boise state
One other team from the five contenders left. So if you do not claim one of the above spots you have one chance in four or five of being picked, whoever you might be.

Actually you can pencil in Penn State or to a lesser intent Iowa.

Boise is the last choice

The Big Tin doesn't deserve a 2nd bid. But they haven't in a long time...

(11-21-2009 06:56 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(11-21-2009 06:03 PM)CatsClaw Wrote:  By the way, not to get on an expansion theme, but this is why we need about 10 teams in the league. That way, when someone like UConn is down, we can still have at least 6 bowl-eligible teams to fill out slots and keep the bowls happy.

I don't think the number of bowl eligable teams will increase at all with another team. If you add team to the Big East, you are also increasing the number of conference games and since most BCS teams do better non-conference than in conference (over 500 out of conference in other words), another team could hurt just as easily as help.

Look at the PAC-10 which has 10 teams, but has 6 bowl tie ins and doesn't even always fill them thanks to 9 conference games.

Good Post!

(11-22-2009 02:40 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The Big Tin doesn't deserve a 2nd bid. But they haven't in a long time...

They sure don't, but almost certainly will get it anyway.

I don't want the Big Ten to have a 2nd bid. If we don't have one, the match-ups look a lot more manageable, especially at the bottom (I will not pick Minnesota over any BCS bowl bound team).

As for deserve, I'm not convinced there are 3 deserving teams left out there. If Boise State loses, them I'm absolutely convinced there aren't. The BCS worked better with only 4 bowls.

(11-22-2009 02:48 PM)Tallgrass Wrote:  

(11-21-2009 06:56 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(11-21-2009 06:03 PM)CatsClaw Wrote:  By the way, not to get on an expansion theme, but this is why we need about 10 teams in the league. That way, when someone like UConn is down, we can still have at least 6 bowl-eligible teams to fill out slots and keep the bowls happy.

I don't think the number of bowl eligable teams will increase at all with another team. If you add team to the Big East, you are also increasing the number of conference games and since most BCS teams do better non-conference than in conference (over 500 out of conference in other words), another team could hurt just as easily as help.

Look at the PAC-10 which has 10 teams, but has 6 bowl tie ins and doesn't even always fill them thanks to 9 conference games.

Good Post!

This is also why when MWC adds Boise there is no guarantee they will be better. Boise will add a few more losses to the other team or Boise will take a few more losses.

(11-22-2009 02:50 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  

(11-22-2009 02:48 PM)Tallgrass Wrote:  

(11-21-2009 06:56 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(11-21-2009 06:03 PM)CatsClaw Wrote:  By the way, not to get on an expansion theme, but this is why we need about 10 teams in the league. That way, when someone like UConn is down, we can still have at least 6 bowl-eligible teams to fill out slots and keep the bowls happy.

I don't think the number of bowl eligable teams will increase at all with another team. If you add team to the Big East, you are also increasing the number of conference games and since most BCS teams do better non-conference than in conference (over 500 out of conference in other words), another team could hurt just as easily as help.

Look at the PAC-10 which has 10 teams, but has 6 bowl tie ins and doesn't even always fill them thanks to 9 conference games.

Good Post!

This is also why when MWC adds Boise there is no guarantee they will be better. Boise will add a few more losses to the other team or Boise will take a few more losses.

Agreed completely. College football is different than other sports with so few games between top teams and with being undefeated having such a high status compared to one loss. The Mountain West will be better with Boise State, but if it doesn't gain an automatic BCS berth, it's not guaranteed to be gaining more BCS games with them than without them.

Updated original post. I think it is possible now that Notre Dame could be completely locked out of a bowl. Bowling Green hit seven wins, assuring that all five MAC teams will fill bowl slots and two of those teams will fill at-large slots. Wyoming also got bowl eligible and will fill at least the New Mexico or Humanitarian bowl slot on the MWC side.

Also, if Boise St. gets left out of the BCS, one of the WAC teams that is bowl eligible will fill an at-large slot as four WAC teams have 7+ wins and the WAC has three tie-ins.

Also, if Army beats Navy they will take a Congressional Bowl slot and if Hawai'i wins out (vs. Navy, vs. Wisconsin) they will take the Hawai'i Bowl slot and two WAC teams will be available for at large slots.

ND might decline a bowl at this point.

And there's almost no chance Army becomes bowl eligible.

(11-29-2009 12:05 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  ND might decline a bowl at this point.

I agree. I think that if the open spots are in Detroit, Washington DC, Mobile, Boise or Albuquerque, they may decline outright.

(11-28-2009 11:59 PM)mattsarz Wrote:  Updated original post. I think it is possible now that Notre Dame could be completely locked out of a bowl. Bowling Green hit seven wins, assuring that all five MAC teams will fill bowl slots and two of those teams will fill at-large slots. Wyoming also got bowl eligible and will fill at least the New Mexico or Humanitarian bowl slot on the MWC side.

Upset aside for Army or Hawaii, it appears we'll end up with 71 teams for 68 spots. I think we can pencil in Monroe and Lafayette from the Sun Belt at 6-6 apiece as likely staying home.

The question is then who is the 3rd team? As you mentioned, Notre Dame is a possibility. If I'm reading your breakdown correctly, every team from the 6 BCS leagues is safe, with maybe the exception of 6-6 UCLA. Also, almost everyone from the non-BCS leagues appears to either be at least 7-5 or be 6-6 but have a guaranteed slot due to a league contract.

The only other non-BCS team I'm seeing that could be in trouble is 6-6 Marshall. So, we could be looking at Marshall, UCLA, and Notre Dame fighting over 2 spots. That doesn't take much guessing to see who'll be left out if we don't have anyone declining a bid.