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Dollar Dumping Conspiracies
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #1
Dollar Dumping Conspiracies
I believe Mach linked the (anti-American) Robert Fisk article about the efforts to peg oil prices to a non-dollar currency.

This is an interesting counterpoint to it (link to Fisk's article is therein). I'd be interested to hear arguments about its validity by those who understand international commerce and currency better than I do.

Debunking the Dumping-the-Dollar Conspiracy

Quote: BY DEAN BAKER | OCTOBER 7, 2009
For at least the last decade, a persistent, recurring conspiracy theory has held that major oil exporters will stop pricing oil in dollars, which will then lead to a collapse in the U.S. economy as the dollar becomes worthless.
...
But they really shouldn't be concerned. Fisk's theory would make a good plot for a Hollywood movie, but it doesn't make much sense as economics. It is true that oil is priced in dollars and that most oil is traded in dollars, but these facts make relatively little difference for the status of the dollar as an international currency or the economic well-being of the United States.
...
It does matter slightly that the trade typically takes place in dollars. This means that those wishing to buy oil must acquire dollars to buy the oil, which increases the demand for dollars in world financial markets. However, the impact of the oil trade is likely to be a very small factor affecting the value of the dollar. Even today, not all oil is sold for dollars. Oil producers are free to construct whatever terms they wish for selling their oil, and many often agree to payment in other currencies. There is absolutely nothing to prevent Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, or any other oil producer -- whether a member of OPEC or not -- from signing contracts selling their oil for whatever currency is convenient for them to acquire.
...
Currently the dollar is by far the preferred currency, but others, notably the euro, are gaining ground. A switch away from the dollar will lower its value, but this is hardly anything to fear: In actuality, it was and is an official policy goal of both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations.
...
Thus, the conspiracy theory Fisk resurrected might have spooked the markets, but the reality is that there is nothing to fear. The dollar's value will likely fall over time (as it has been doing against the euro for the last nine years). But there is nothing in the cards to suggest a collapse, even if Saudi Arabia starts selling its oil for euros or yuan.

Who is Dean Baker? From his wiki page:
Quote:He has ridiculed the US elite for favoring it, asking, "How do you make a DC intellectual look less articulate than Sarah Palin being interviewed by Katie Couric? That's easy. You ask them how failure to pass the (ed: 2009 banking) bailout will give us a Great Depression."

'nough said.
10-09-2009 11:16 AM
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GGniner Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Dollar Dumping Conspiracies
just another in a long line of anti-american linked saber ratteling.

Peter Schiff and the goldbugs, have been predicting for years that the world woudl decouple from the dollar and flee to gold as the global economy collapses.(i.e. doomsday). They predicted this for last fall, instead the dollare rebounded 20% and gold fell 30%. Of course, now a year later those two are headed in different directions.

There is a movement, in the International Left for a "Global Currency". Which shouldn't be all that shocking I suppose. We are already affected domestically, by actions of Central banks in Europe, Asia, etc., just as they are by us. There goes the Forex exchange....
10-09-2009 11:26 AM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Dollar Dumping Conspiracies
Isn't a Global Currency essentially the same as pegged currencies, which are well documented disasters in the general case, implemented on a universal scale? With truly floating currencies, it doesn't make sense to me that it really matters what currency is used for commodities exchanges (like oil).
10-09-2009 11:32 AM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Dollar Dumping Conspiracies
Arab Nations won't dump the dollar as long as they still have Trillions deposited in US Banks.

Now if you see lots of US accounts being closed all at once and the money wired to Dubai, somebody may know something is going down pretty soon.

But if you were going to "take down" the US economy, you would start with dumping large holdings of dollars or US T-Bills.
10-09-2009 02:08 PM
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GGniner Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Dollar Dumping Conspiracies
only way to take down our economy quickly, is more 9/11's.

We still have a GDP near 14 Trillion dollars, we produce most of the world's resources. For our economy to collapse all at once, spells doom for the rest of the world.
10-09-2009 02:28 PM
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