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Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
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GGniner Offline
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Post: #1
Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
Quote:Chickens Roosting [Victor Davis Hanson]

Where to begin with the “surprise” announcement of a second, previously undisclosed “nuclear facility”? Some thoughts:

(1) This is Iran’s answer to the Obama video peace offensive. This summer we kept quiet while thousands went into the streets of Tehran to protest brutality and a rigged election — just so that Obama’s much-heralded peace offensive, planned for October, could showcase his transnational diplomatic charisma. I think all that brilliance has just been preempted by the theocracy, which quite understandably concluded that Obama not only would not support democratic dissidents in the new “reset button” era, but was increasingly desperate, as the new anti-Bush, to obtain some sort of agreement with Iran by any means necessary.

(2) The IAEA under Mohamed ElBaradei is a disgraced, politicized organization whose first mission is to resonate with anti-American Western elites (note the Nobel Prize given ElBaradei and his failed agency in 2005), and whose second is to appease Muslim countries, on the theory that years ago democratic Israel got a bomb, so what’s the big deal if an autocratic Muslim country does the same? This is no exaggeration; it comes out of the mouth of ElBaradei himself and is often echoed by his supporters in the West.

(3) We have no reliable intelligence agencies — none at all. For partisan purposes, they have leaked false information about both Iran and Iraq for years. During the political wars of the Bush era, they claimed that Iran was “years away” from obtaining the bomb — and anyone who doubted that dubious assessment was either unhinged or of questionable character. Do we remember the much-welcomed 2007 conclusion from the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran: “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program”?

That bombshell was cited for months as “proof” of neoconservative paranoia and warmongering over Iraq. In fact, over the last decade, we have seen a long series of politicized leaks from the CIA and politicized memoirs from former operatives designed to undermine the case against Iran. The result is that after endless assurances that there was no Iranian effort to get a bomb, it turns out that there has been one all the time, and it is now on the eve of coming to fruition. We should have an investigation to determine what, if anything, the authors of the 2007 assessment knew about the recently disclosed “second” facility.


4) Despite the president’s praise of the UN, trashing of the previous administration, and grandiose proclamations that we are back on the Human Rights Council, there is little international concern over Iran. A few nations walked out during Ahmadinejad’s rant, but most delegates stayed glued to their seats. Russia and China — the former recently appeased by the missile deal, the latter recently rebuffed with the tire tariff — are flush with cash and enjoy the notion that Iran bothers us more than it does them; they have not yet been hope-and-changed into helping Obama with his grand vision on the grounds that he is not Bush. Some look at our president and see a messiah; these two see a rookie in charge of a now-bankrupt country with $2-trillion-a-year deficits that is unsure what to do in two wars and in dire need of both imported oil and trillions in cash.

We can imagine that Europeans’ “concern” will translate into something analogous to their effort in Afghanistan. Britain’s past appeasement of the sailor-kidnapping Iranians, and its recent oil-prompted release to Libya of the Lockerbie murderer, will not create much worry in Tehran about British sanctions.

In short, there is nothing the international community can or will do about Iran’s road to a small arsenal of nukes. What would work — an ironclad international boycott and embargo of Iran’s oil exports and gasoline imports — is beyond Western statecraft. In this new Obama era of morally equivalent multiculturalism, we have no desire to stand for human rights and support the Iranian opposition in any meaningful way; and as for trying to appease either the Muslim world or Russia and China in hopes of getting help from them — well, no comment on that.

(5) We are no longer really an ally of Israel. Most of this administration’s efforts in the Mideast have consisted of pressuring Israel in unilateral fashion. We are reaching out to Syria, the West Bank, and the Muslim world in general, while warning democratic Israel not to do a litany of things. The only mystery now is how far the estrangement extends. In that regard, Zbigniew Brzezinski’s recent suggestion that we might shoot down Israeli planes on the way to Iran as they passed over Iraq is not as lunatic as it would have seemed last year.

I think the script is pretty clear: The world is either terrified or intrigued by the Iranian bomb program but will do nothing to stop it. The Western powers privately hope that Israel will do something, and if it does, the intervention may prove to be a military and diplomatic disaster (which is the bad choice, as opposed to the worse one of allowing a nuclear Iran) that will allow the U.S. and the West at last to decouple from this “rogue” nation.

03-banghead We are screwed.
09-25-2009 11:34 AM
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SumOfAllFears Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
Chilling.

ObamaChicken
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2009 11:40 AM by SumOfAllFears.)
09-25-2009 11:39 AM
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DrTorch Offline
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
Russia is not flush with cash, at least not from what I've read.

You can't cite the public release of intel as "proof" of anything, especially when you immediately precede that w/ a comment about leaking false information.

I know that not everything on this page is accurate.
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2009 11:46 AM by DrTorch.)
09-25-2009 11:45 AM
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GGniner Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
Iran admitted to it, our intel supposedly knew about it for a year(according to Andrea Mitchells report anyway) and somehow Iran found out and announced it today.

Colore me not suprised Iran has been advancing in their Nuke games and have alteast 2 enrichment facilities, the latest in a "Holy City" burried under ground. Though in 2007 we heard endlessly selected portions of the NIE leaked to the Press as proof Iran was nowhere near a bomb. All just "Warmongering" by the Bush Admin.

dropping a tactical nuke(what is needed for something burried far underground) in a islamic holy city is politically unfeasible.
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2009 12:00 PM by GGniner.)
09-25-2009 11:59 AM
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RobertN Offline
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-25-2009 11:34 AM)GGniner Wrote:  
Quote:Chickens Roosting [Victor Davis Hanson]

Where to begin with the “surprise” announcement of a second, previously undisclosed “nuclear facility”? Some thoughts:

(1) This is Iran’s answer to the Obama video peace offensive. This summer we kept quiet while thousands went into the streets of Tehran to protest brutality and a rigged election — just so that Obama’s much-heralded peace offensive, planned for October, could showcase his transnational diplomatic charisma. I think all that brilliance has just been preempted by the theocracy, which quite understandably concluded that Obama not only would not support democratic dissidents in the new “reset button” era, but was increasingly desperate, as the new anti-Bush, to obtain some sort of agreement with Iran by any means necessary.

(2) The IAEA under Mohamed ElBaradei is a disgraced, politicized organization whose first mission is to resonate with anti-American Western elites (note the Nobel Prize given ElBaradei and his failed agency in 2005), and whose second is to appease Muslim countries, on the theory that years ago democratic Israel got a bomb, so what’s the big deal if an autocratic Muslim country does the same? This is no exaggeration; it comes out of the mouth of ElBaradei himself and is often echoed by his supporters in the West.

(3) We have no reliable intelligence agencies — none at all. For partisan purposes, they have leaked false information about both Iran and Iraq for years. During the political wars of the Bush era, they claimed that Iran was “years away” from obtaining the bomb — and anyone who doubted that dubious assessment was either unhinged or of questionable character. Do we remember the much-welcomed 2007 conclusion from the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran: “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program”?

That bombshell was cited for months as “proof” of neoconservative paranoia and warmongering over Iraq. In fact, over the last decade, we have seen a long series of politicized leaks from the CIA and politicized memoirs from former operatives designed to undermine the case against Iran. The result is that after endless assurances that there was no Iranian effort to get a bomb, it turns out that there has been one all the time, and it is now on the eve of coming to fruition. We should have an investigation to determine what, if anything, the authors of the 2007 assessment knew about the recently disclosed “second” facility.


4) Despite the president’s praise of the UN, trashing of the previous administration, and grandiose proclamations that we are back on the Human Rights Council, there is little international concern over Iran. A few nations walked out during Ahmadinejad’s rant, but most delegates stayed glued to their seats. Russia and China — the former recently appeased by the missile deal, the latter recently rebuffed with the tire tariff — are flush with cash and enjoy the notion that Iran bothers us more than it does them; they have not yet been hope-and-changed into helping Obama with his grand vision on the grounds that he is not Bush. Some look at our president and see a messiah; these two see a rookie in charge of a now-bankrupt country with $2-trillion-a-year deficits that is unsure what to do in two wars and in dire need of both imported oil and trillions in cash.

We can imagine that Europeans’ “concern” will translate into something analogous to their effort in Afghanistan. Britain’s past appeasement of the sailor-kidnapping Iranians, and its recent oil-prompted release to Libya of the Lockerbie murderer, will not create much worry in Tehran about British sanctions.

In short, there is nothing the international community can or will do about Iran’s road to a small arsenal of nukes. What would work — an ironclad international boycott and embargo of Iran’s oil exports and gasoline imports — is beyond Western statecraft. In this new Obama era of morally equivalent multiculturalism, we have no desire to stand for human rights and support the Iranian opposition in any meaningful way; and as for trying to appease either the Muslim world or Russia and China in hopes of getting help from them — well, no comment on that.

(5) We are no longer really an ally of Israel. Most of this administration’s efforts in the Mideast have consisted of pressuring Israel in unilateral fashion. We are reaching out to Syria, the West Bank, and the Muslim world in general, while warning democratic Israel not to do a litany of things. The only mystery now is how far the estrangement extends. In that regard, Zbigniew Brzezinski’s recent suggestion that we might shoot down Israeli planes on the way to Iran as they passed over Iraq is not as lunatic as it would have seemed last year.

I think the script is pretty clear: The world is either terrified or intrigued by the Iranian bomb program but will do nothing to stop it. The Western powers privately hope that Israel will do something, and if it does, the intervention may prove to be a military and diplomatic disaster (which is the bad choice, as opposed to the worse one of allowing a nuclear Iran) that will allow the U.S. and the West at last to decouple from this “rogue” nation.

03-banghead We are screwed.
Victor Davis Hanson= fellow with pro-war group that is a who's who of Republicans. Group funde come partly from Boeing. That pretty much tells you all you need to know about the man and his spin on military subjects.
09-25-2009 12:07 PM
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NIU05 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
America has NO balls. We have been emasculated and we have done it to ourselves.

We are Britain 1918, but worse since there will be no one to help us as we helped Britain and Europe in two world wars.

May you live in interesting times.
09-25-2009 12:21 PM
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Lord Stanley Offline
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
I've been an unabashed VDH fan for a long time, but the good Dr is right about the intel. Seems like a rather uncharacteristic mistake for VDH. Cherry picking intel as it suits your needs does not make for good decisions nor good copy.

My guess is that obviously Iran has been working on nukes for years. It is rather simple to bury a research lab under a mountain and not be seen. However I am not equating their research with success. Again, my guess is that Iranian efforts to produce a nuclear weapon will not bear fruit, probably through a combination of technical impasse and outside intervention.

Quote:Some look at our president and see a messiah; these two see a rookie in charge of a now-bankrupt country with $2-trillion-a-year deficits that is unsure what to do in two wars and in dire need of both imported oil and trillions in cash

I have no doubt in my mind that while some high percentage of the regular population of a foreign country support and approve of Obama, behind closed doors at government centers there is a lot of sweaty brow. If in extreme cases the USA does indeed rely on the carrot instead of the stick, Obama will be played like a rented fiddle by savvy foreign policy and subterfuge. We've seen what Russia is doing with the missile shield etc, I think the bigger bombshell might be whatever the hell buttons China pushes (trade, Taiwan, global warming etc etc.) The Chinese are waiting for something, but one thing about China, when your empire has lasted a 1000 years, you can time your response with deadly precision.

And if Israel is pushed to make a military decision on Iran, I do hope the US supports their defense. Maybe the USA should not be involved in an Israeli attack, but the USA should certainly rally to their defense. And if this push comes to shove and somehow Israel loses this battle, I will personally open my doors to any refugees of the Jewish state.
09-25-2009 12:32 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
When Israel attacks, I expect the Iranian counter-attack to be against the Saudi oil production facilities. We definitely need to do everything we can to repulse that attack.
09-25-2009 01:18 PM
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Post: #9
RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-25-2009 01:18 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  When Israel attacks, I expect the Iranian counter-attack to be against the Saudi oil production facilities. We definitely need to do everything we can to repulse that attack.

....and in the meantime, Obama's deputy sec'y of defense is saying we should act as Iran's first line of defense by shooting down any Israeli planes attempting to enter Iranian airspace.

It's clear that the kooks now run the country.
09-25-2009 01:25 PM
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GGniner Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
the new Leader of the "Free World" is Netanyahu, that was clear at the UN yesterday.
09-25-2009 01:27 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-25-2009 01:25 PM)Rebel Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 01:18 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  When Israel attacks, I expect the Iranian counter-attack to be against the Saudi oil production facilities. We definitely need to do everything we can to repulse that attack.
....and in the meantime, Obama's deputy sec'y of defense is saying we should act as Iran's first line of defense by shooting down any Israeli planes attempting to enter Iranian airspace.
It's clear that the kooks now run the country.

Except that I expect the Israelis will be going through Saudi airspace, not Iraqi. I doubt we'd invade Saudi airspace to shoot them down.

That was reported in July as being a done deal, at least in Seychelles news outlets. I'd heard last fall that it was from sources in Dubai.

I wonder if the announcement today of a hidden Iranian enrichment site will sway anything.
09-25-2009 01:30 PM
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GGniner Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
I think its pretty reasonable to conclude Iran has intentions to get a Nukes and these aren't "Peaceful activities", given how out of the way they are going to build the capablities to contstruct nuclear weapons. If they don't have the intent, why are the working so hard to build the capability?

in positive Saudi news(I guess), it was reported the other day they are opening a Co-Ed university, heh
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2009 01:43 PM by GGniner.)
09-25-2009 01:42 PM
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-25-2009 01:25 PM)Rebel Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 01:18 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  When Israel attacks, I expect the Iranian counter-attack to be against the Saudi oil production facilities. We definitely need to do everything we can to repulse that attack.

....and in the meantime, Obama's deputy sec'y of defense is saying we should act as Iran's first line of defense by shooting down any Israeli planes attempting to enter Iranian airspace.

It's clear that the kooks now run the country.

Wow...just wow! Did he really say that? That would be unbelievable. May God have mercy on us!
09-25-2009 02:40 PM
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GGniner Offline
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-25-2009 02:40 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 01:25 PM)Rebel Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 01:18 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  When Israel attacks, I expect the Iranian counter-attack to be against the Saudi oil production facilities. We definitely need to do everything we can to repulse that attack.

....and in the meantime, Obama's deputy sec'y of defense is saying we should act as Iran's first line of defense by shooting down any Israeli planes attempting to enter Iranian airspace.

It's clear that the kooks now run the country.

Wow...just wow! Did he really say that? That would be unbelievable. May God have mercy on us!

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/...-to-a.html
09-25-2009 02:42 PM
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-25-2009 02:42 PM)GGniner Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 02:40 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 01:25 PM)Rebel Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 01:18 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  When Israel attacks, I expect the Iranian counter-attack to be against the Saudi oil production facilities. We definitely need to do everything we can to repulse that attack.

....and in the meantime, Obama's deputy sec'y of defense is saying we should act as Iran's first line of defense by shooting down any Israeli planes attempting to enter Iranian airspace.

It's clear that the kooks now run the country.

Wow...just wow! Did he really say that? That would be unbelievable. May God have mercy on us!

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/...-to-a.html

That guy was part of the Carter admin, not the Obama administration.
09-25-2009 02:48 PM
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NIU05 Offline
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-25-2009 01:27 PM)GGniner Wrote:  the new Leader of the "Free World" is Netanyahu, that was clear at the UN yesterday.

Great comment. So true.
09-25-2009 04:15 PM
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Post: #17
RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
If Israel goes in, there is no way the US won't have to go all in to protect the oil shipping lanes and infrastructure.

It's insanity, the us is the only nation who has the ability to go in and destroy enough of Iran's air and navy, that could lead to a successful war.
09-26-2009 08:15 AM
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-26-2009 08:15 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  It's insanity, the us is the only nation who has the ability to go in and destroy enough of Iran's air and navy, that could lead to a successful war.

I beg to differ.
09-26-2009 09:44 AM
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RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-26-2009 09:44 AM)Rebel Wrote:  
(09-26-2009 08:15 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  It's insanity, the us is the only nation who has the ability to go in and destroy enough of Iran's air and navy, that could lead to a successful war.

I beg to differ.

From STRATFOR Read Full Report from 9/22/2009

Stratfor.com Intel Briefing Wrote:Iran: The U.S. Strategic Obsession
The Islamic world has been the focus of the United States since 9/11. In this context, the development of an Iranian nuclear capability was seen as a fundamental threat to U.S. national interests. The obvious response was a military strike to destroy Iranian power, but both the Bush and Obama administrations hesitated to take the step.

First, a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would be no one-day affair. Intelligence on precise locations had uncertainty built into it, and any strike would consist of multiple phases: destroying Iran's air force and navy, destroying Iran's anti-aircraft capability to guarantee total command of the skies, the attacks on the nuclear facilities themselves, analysis of the damage, perhaps a second wave, and of course additional attacks to deal with any attempted Iranian retaliation. The target set would be considerable, and would extend well beyond the targets directly related to the nuclear program, making such an operation no simple matter.

Second, Iran has the ability to respond in a number of ways. One is unleashing terrorist attacks worldwide via Hezbollah. But the most significant response would be blocking the Strait of Hormuz using either anti-ship missiles or naval mines. The latter are more threatening largely because the clearing operation could take a considerable period and it would be difficult to know when you had cleared all of the mines. Tankers and their loads are worth about $170 million at current prices, and that uncertainty could cause owners to refuse the trip. Oil exports could fall dramatically, and the effect on the global economy—particularly now amid the global financial crisis—could be absolutely devastating. Attacking Iran would be an air-sea battle, and could even include limited ground forces inserted to ensure that the nuclear facilities were destroyed.

The country most concerned with all of this is Israel. The Iranians had given every indication that they plan to build a nuclear capability and use it against Israel. Israel's vulnerability to such a strike is enormous, and there are serious questions about Israel's ability to use the threat of a counterstrike as a deterrent to such a strike. In our view, Iran is merely creating a system to guarantee regime survival, but given the tenor of Tehran's statements, Israel cannot afford to take this view complacently.

Israel could unilaterally draw the United States into an airstrike on Iran. Were Israel to strike Iran by any means, it most likely would lack the ability to conduct an extended air campaign. And the United States could not suffer the consequences of airstrikes without the benefits of taking out Iran's nuclear program. Apart from the political consequences, the U.S. Navy would be drawn into the suppression of Iranian naval capabilities in the Persian Gulf whether it wanted to or not simply to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Even if Iran didn't act to close off the strait, Washington would have to assume that it might, an eventuality it could not afford. So an Israeli attack would likely draw in the United States against Iran one way or another. The United States has had no appetite for such an eventuality, particularly since it considers a deliverable Iranian nuclear weapon a ways off. The U.S. alternative—in both administrations—was diplomatic.

Israel and Complications to the Diplomatic Alternative
Washington wanted to create a coalition of powers able to impose sanctions on Iran. At meetings over the summer, the Obama administration appears to have promised Israel "crippling" sanctions to prevent any unilateral Israel action. At an April G-8 meeting, it was decided that Iran must engage in serious negotiations on its nuclear program prior to the next G-8 meeting—on Sept. 24—or face these sanctions.

The crippling sanctions foreseen were some sort of interruption of the flow of gasoline into Iran, which imports 40 percent of its supply despite being a net exporter of crude. Obviously, in order for this to work, all of the G-8 nations (and others) must participate, particularly Russia. Russia has the capacity to produce and transport all of Iran's needs, not just its import requirements. If the Russians don't participate, there are no sanctions.

The Russians announced weeks ago that they opposed new sanctions on Iran and would not participate in them. Moreover, they seemed to flout the ineffectiveness of any U.S. sanctions. With that, the diplomatic option on Iran was off the table. Russia is not eager to see Iran develop nuclear weapons, but it sees the United States as the greater threat at the moment. Moscow's fundamental fear is that the United States—and Israel—will dramatically strengthen Ukraine, Georgia and other states in the FSU and on its periphery, and that Russia's strategic goal of national security through pre-eminence in the region will be lost.

>From the Russian point of view, the U.S. desire for Russian help with Iran is incompatible with the U.S. desire to pursue its own course in the FSU and countries like Poland. From the U.S. point of view, these were two entirely different matters that should be handled in a different venue. But Washington didn't get to choose in this matter. This was a Russian decision. The Russians faced what they saw as an existential threat, believing that the U.S. strategy threatened the long-term survival of the Russian Federation. The Russians were not prepared to support a U.S. solution for Iran without American support on Russian concerns. The Americans ultimately did not understand that the Russians had shifted out of the era in which the United States could simply dictate to them. Now, the United States had to negotiate with the Russians on terms Moscow set, or the United States would have to become more directly threatening to Russia. Becoming more threatening was not an option with U.S. forces scattered all over the Middle East. Therefore, the United States had to decide what it wanted.

American attention in the run-up to the Oct. 1 talks with Iran was focused by Israel. The Obama administration had adopted an interesting two-tier position on Israel. On the one hand, it was confronting Israel on halting settlement activity in the West Bank; on the other hand, it was making promises to Israel on Iran. The sense in Israel was that the Obama administration was altering Washington's traditional support for Israel. Since Iran was a critical threat to Israel, and since Israel might not have a better chance to strike than now, the Obama administration began to realize that its diplomatic option had failed, and that the decision on war and peace with Iran was not in its hands but in Israel's, since Israel was prepared to act unilaterally and draw the United States into a war. Given that the Obama diplomatic initiative had failed and that the administration's pressure on Israel had created a sense of isolation in Israel, the situation could now well spiral out of control.

Although all of these things operated in different bureaucratic silos in Washington, and participants in each silo could suffer under the illusion that the issues were unrelated, the matters converged hurriedly last week. Uncertain what leverage it had over Israel, the United States decided to reach out to the Russians. Washington sought a way to indicate to the Russians that it was prepared to deal with Russia in a different way while simultaneously giving away as little as possible. That little was the redeployment of BMD components originally planned for Poland and the Czech Republic to ships. (Money already has been allocated to upgrade additional Atlantic-based Aegis warships to BMD capability.) Whatever the military and engineering issues involved, whatever the desire not to conflate U.S. strategic relations with Israel with pressure on the settlement issue, whatever the desire to "reset" relations without actually giving the Russians anything, the silos collapsed and a gesture was made.

>From the Russian point of view, the gesture is welcome but insufficient. They are not going to solve a major strategic problem for the United States simply in return for moving the BMD. For that, the United States got access to Afghanistan through Russia if desired, and the removal of missiles in Kaliningrad. The Americans also got a different atmosphere at meetings between U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev at the United Nations next week. But the sine qua non for Russian help on Iran is Russia's sphere of influence in the FSU. The public relations aspect of how this sphere is announced is not critical. That the U.S. agrees to it is.

This is the foreign policy test all U.S. presidents face. Obama now has three choices.
He can make the deal with Russia. But every day that passes, Russia is creating the reality of domination in the FSU, so its price for a deal will continue to rise from simply recognizing their sphere of influence to extending it to neutralizing Poland.
He can select the military option of an air campaign against Iran. But this means accepting the risk to maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf and the potentially devastating impact on the global economy if oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are impacted significantly.
He can wait to see how things unfold, and place overwhelming pressure on Israel not to attack. But this means finding a way to place the pressure: Israel in 2009 does not have the dependence on the United States it had in 1973.
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2009 10:01 AM by SumOfAllFears.)
09-26-2009 09:53 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
Just an old rugby coach
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Post: #20
RE: Our Chickens...are Coming Home....To ROOST
(09-25-2009 02:48 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 02:42 PM)GGniner Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 02:40 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 01:25 PM)Rebel Wrote:  
(09-25-2009 01:18 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  When Israel attacks, I expect the Iranian counter-attack to be against the Saudi oil production facilities. We definitely need to do everything we can to repulse that attack.
....and in the meantime, Obama's deputy sec'y of defense is saying we should act as Iran's first line of defense by shooting down any Israeli planes attempting to enter Iranian airspace.
It's clear that the kooks now run the country.
Wow...just wow! Did he really say that? That would be unbelievable. May God have mercy on us!
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/...-to-a.html
That guy was part of the Carter admin, not the Obama administration.

Yes, he's kind of an "unofficial adviser" to Obama. That means they get to claim his experience whenever some questions Obama's inexperience, but they get to disavow him when he says something really stupid--like this. Zbig has a long history of "foot in mouth" disease.

It's nice to be able to move the truth around to suit your needs.
09-26-2009 10:18 AM
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