Machiavelli
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Hey WMD or Owl 69
I've read and heard Pakistan is the key to getting us out of Afghanistan and the key to Pakistan is India and there have been movements in this area lately. Anything you guys have heard or read about? I would also like to hear any opinions on Afghanistan as chages in policy or lack thereof in concerns with the new administration.
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09-14-2009 08:23 PM |
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Owl 69/70/75
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
I think Pakistan may well be the key. If Osama is holed up there, then Pakistan is a huge key.
India could probably slice through Pakistan in a heartbeat, but other than the rest of Kashmir there's not much they want there.
Certainly if India put some pressure on Pakistan they would probably have to act. I still think Tony Blair pushed India to pressure Pakistan a bit when we were getting ready to go into Afghanistan in 2002. And we got what we needed from Pakistan. Then Shrub dumped on Blair, a move that hurt both of them politically.
I could foresee something like that coming down here.
One thing I think WMD and I discussed a few months ago was the one-time rumor that we could sell the Kitty Hawk to India. I think that was a good idea, and might have done a bit of altering the balance of power in the IO.
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09-14-2009 09:47 PM |
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-14-2009 09:47 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: India could probably slice through Pakistan in a heartbeat, but other than the rest of Kashmir there's not much they want there.
India "slicing" through Pakistan would insure one thing, both countries would become glass parking lots and our GI's would become collateral.
Not a good move. The only move in that area, I'm afraid, is diplomacy. They both own glow toys.
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09-14-2009 09:52 PM |
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Owl 69/70/75
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-14-2009 09:52 PM)Rebel Wrote: India "slicing" through Pakistan would insure one thing, both countries would become glass parking lots and our GI's would become collateral.
Not a good move. The only move in that area, I'm afraid, is diplomacy. They both own glow toys.
I'm not sure that either one of them can hit anything with them. But you are right, pressure has to be applied judiciously.
I think Pakistan would be much more likely to pre-empt if they felt threatened. Of course if they launched against India, they might hit India, or Iran, or Afghanistan, or who knows where.
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09-14-2009 09:56 PM |
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-14-2009 09:56 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (09-14-2009 09:52 PM)Rebel Wrote: India "slicing" through Pakistan would insure one thing, both countries would become glass parking lots and our GI's would become collateral.
Not a good move. The only move in that area, I'm afraid, is diplomacy. They both own glow toys.
I'm not sure that either one of them can hit anything with them. But you are right, pressure has to be applied judiciously.
I think Pakistan would be much more likely to pre-empt if they felt threatened. Of course if they launched against India, they might hit India, or Iran, or Afghanistan, or who knows where.
In terms of their technological skills, I don't think anyone wants to take a chance on Pakistan's competence, or lack thereof.
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09-14-2009 09:59 PM |
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Machiavelli
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
Pakistani ISI pretty much built the Taliban. Pakistan wants concession from India. India is starting to align to those concessions. Pieces are falling into place. It was an interview I was watching. Is it true? or probaly the better term would be shaded in truth.............. or truth sprinkled in with hope.
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09-15-2009 06:35 AM |
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Machiavelli
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09-15-2009 06:39 AM |
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WoodlandsOwl
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
The Indians and Pakis have been in talks over Kashmir for 5 years. As long as they keep talking, they won't be fighting. And we need the Pakistani Army in the NW Tribal Areas. Maybe they will get lucky and flush UBL out into the open.
As far asa Afghanistan, I say forget the nation building. The Afghanis dont want a strong central government and they hate Karzi who is seen as corrupt.
We need to cut the best deal with the people running the provinces and tribes. It will work with everyone except the drug warlords. Tell the "good" tribes that we stay out of their hair unless AQ or Taliban show up, and there is a sizable reward if they turn in AQ or Taliban.
We don't need another 26,000 troops in Afghanistan. We will get bogged down there like the Soviets did.
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09-15-2009 07:06 AM |
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-15-2009 06:39 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: Almost right on cue MSNBC has an article, but the slant is it's bad the Pakistani military is taking out probably the bad guys. Here's the article...........
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32853294/ns/...ork_times/
Almost right on cue? That article was posted online 2 hours before you posted yours.
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09-15-2009 07:58 AM |
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Machiavelli
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
It was posted at 5:04 a.m. I posted this last night. That 5:04 is an update so it may have been posted last night I don't know.
My first post was 9:24 last night.......JEEESH!!!
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2009 08:25 AM by Machiavelli.)
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09-15-2009 08:24 AM |
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Owl 69/70/75
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
I'm not as concerned about troop numbers as I am about duration. We don't need to be an occupation army anywhere. Get in with overwhelming force, let it overwhelm, get the job done, and get out. Of course, no matter how many troops you bring, that kind of result is impossible with our current rules of engagement.
If Mullah Omar is with a bunch of women and children, we should not be so concerned about collateral damage that we neglect to kill Mullah Omar. We don't have that mindset, and without that mindset every place we go is going to turn into the kind of quagmire that Vietnam was. Iraq has been that, Afghanistan is becoming that.
If we're not willing to go in full bore, then we shouldn't be going in at all. We are dealing with an enemy who has learned over thousands of years to respect brute force and little else. They respect overwhelming force even better. So don't just show them overwhelming force. Allow it to overwhelm. And that doesn't require numbers as much as it requires changing rules of engagement.
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09-15-2009 08:43 AM |
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I45owl
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-14-2009 09:47 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: India could probably slice through Pakistan in a heartbeat, but other than the rest of Kashmir there's not much they want there.
The big disincentive is that once India entered Pakistan, well, they would be in Pakistan.
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09-15-2009 09:32 AM |
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NIU05
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-15-2009 07:06 AM)WMD Owl Wrote: The Indians and Pakis have been in talks over Kashmir for 5 years. As long as they keep talking, they won't be fighting. And we need the Pakistani Army in the NW Tribal Areas. Maybe they will get lucky and flush UBL out into the open.
As far asa Afghanistan, I say forget the nation building. The Afghanis dont want a strong central government and they hate Karzi who is seen as corrupt.
We need to cut the best deal with the people running the provinces and tribes. It will work with everyone except the drug warlords. Tell the "good" tribes that we stay out of their hair unless AQ or Taliban show up, and there is a sizable reward if they turn in AQ or Taliban.
We don't need another 26,000 troops in Afghanistan. We will get bogged down there like the Soviets did.
...Anyone thinking UBL is in Iran?
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09-15-2009 01:25 PM |
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I45owl
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-15-2009 01:25 PM)NIU05 Wrote: ...Anyone thinking UBL is in Iran?
Not likely, IMHO. Perhaps or probably some of the 2nd or 3rd tier leaders, but I don't think the big fish are there.
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09-15-2009 02:11 PM |
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WoodlandsOwl
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-15-2009 02:11 PM)I45owl Wrote: (09-15-2009 01:25 PM)NIU05 Wrote: ...Anyone thinking UBL is in Iran?
Not likely, IMHO. Perhaps or probably some of the 2nd or 3rd tier leaders, but I don't think the big fish are there.
UBL's son was there until 2008, until AQ paid a few million bucks to get him released from "House Arrest" and he moved to Pakistan where he was killed in a Predator strike.
Who is definitely in Iran is Saif al Adel, who is presently #4 in their Operations Section. He was behind the African Embassy bombings in the 1990's. He has a $5 million pricetag on his head on the "rewards for Terror" program.
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09-15-2009 02:29 PM |
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I45owl
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-15-2009 02:29 PM)WMD Owl Wrote: (09-15-2009 02:11 PM)I45owl Wrote: (09-15-2009 01:25 PM)NIU05 Wrote: ...Anyone thinking UBL is in Iran?
Not likely, IMHO. Perhaps or probably some of the 2nd or 3rd tier leaders, but I don't think the big fish are there.
UBL's son was there until 2008, until AQ paid a few million bucks to get him released from "House Arrest" and he moved to Pakistan where he was killed in a Predator strike.
Who is definitely in Iran is Saif al Adel, who is presently #4 in their Operations Section. He was behind the African Embassy bombings in the 1990's. He has a $5 million pricetag on his head on the "rewards for Terror" program.
The second part of what I was going to say was that AQ would be kept in a penalty box whilst they're there. The level of guys you're talking about is probably higher than I expected.
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09-15-2009 04:43 PM |
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Owl 69/70/75
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RE: Hey WMD or Owl 69
(09-15-2009 09:32 AM)I45owl Wrote: (09-14-2009 09:47 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: India could probably slice through Pakistan in a heartbeat, but other than the rest of Kashmir there's not much they want there.
The big disincentive is that once India entered Pakistan, well, they would be in Pakistan.
My point, exactly.
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09-15-2009 05:38 PM |
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