http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archi...s.....html

Some good solid numbers. Interesting discussion on what the debt level truly means.

Maybe not a perfect analysis. Probably doesn't include every factor out there. But a good starting point.

This is pretty close to what concerns me, with one big additional concern.

For many years we were told not to worry about the federal debt, because that was money we owed ourselves. That's no longer true. The federal appetite for debt has exceeded the domestic economy's ability to supply capital, so more and more federal borrowing is going overseas. Add to the $1 triilion annual federal deficit another $1 trillion balance-of-trade deficit (which by definition must be financed overseas) and we are quickly running up enormous foreign debt.

We need to look at these numbers from the lender side, too, in order to appreciate just how big a risk they present.

We need to
1. Reduce the federal deficit, and
2. Reduce the balance of trade deficit, and
3. Reduce consumer debt, and
4. Increase individual savings.

That's going to be very uncomfortable. Failing to do so will prove even more uncomfortable. If we don't start very soon, it will be too late.

they have a post similar to this at The Corner right now, the "Good News" our Debt-GDP ratio is 60% while countries like Japan are sitting on 160%, and in our past its been as high as 130%. Bad News is that its climbing at a very fast rate currently, thanks to Truther/Commie Lovers spending and 'wealth spreading'

Thanks a lot folks - this really brightened up my day!

I still can't get over McCain's statement from last year - to the effect of: we can waste our time trying to find out why this happened - we must act!

Even if we had a leader who came to understand the problem of the debt, would they then have the guts to take corrective action? Would they have any chance of being able to succeed in doing so?

not possible at this point without a Dictator of some sorts taking over. Too much of an Entitlement mindset in this country, plus the Left controls the MSM. The left want full blown Socialism, which is fairly obvious at this point. That or a major, world-wide economic collapse that dwarfs the Great Depression might do the trick.

The lefts idea of cutting spending is slashing our defenses, claiming there is no such thing as Evil in the world, just the uneducated, and we don't need much of a Military/Defense but a "Dept. of Peace" as Kucinich labeled it. (The nutters on the Anarchist-Right agree).

The right's idea of cutting spending, isn't politically possible(entitlements) so it rarely actually happens. Its just restrained vs. what the Dems/Left in this country want. To really try to remove many of those problems, means Political demonization by the left and ruin at the polls, which then gives the Left greater power. The left will scare the crap out of Senior Citizens and others on Govt. Programs to win.

(09-08-2009 11:21 AM)I45owl Wrote:  Thanks a lot folks - this really brightened up my day!

Hey, I'm all about rainbows and ponies!

(09-08-2009 11:29 AM)GGniner Wrote:  not possible at this point without a Dictator of some sorts taking over. Too much of an Entitlement mindset in this country, plus the Left controls the MSM.

If there's one thing that bureaucrats are good at, it's coming up w/ "proof" of how vital their role is to the good of the US. And then capturing that in Power Point.

The bureaucracy is so entrenched in this country, it's hard to conceive of a way out other than catastrophe.

As for the dictator, remember Napoleon seized power after the Reign of Terror finally burned itself out.

Wow. What a surprise. You rightwing guys agreeing with what a rightwing trickle down guy says. Imagine that.

(09-08-2009 01:04 PM)RobertN Wrote:  Wow. What a surprise. You rightwing guys agreeing with what a rightwing trickle down guy says. Imagine that.

Hey dopey....what do you disagree with?

I thought the Messiah told us we could spend our way out of recession? By reading that article, it would seem mathematically impossible. Is he saying the Messiah is blowing smoke up our a$$es.

(09-09-2009 10:13 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  I thought the Messiah told us we could spend our way out of recession? By reading that article, it would seem mathematically impossible. Is he saying the Messiah is blowing smoke up our a$$es.

In fairness he's saying this is a gov't myth that has persisted for some while.

W/o naming names, his timeline is pretty harsh toward the Bush administration's policies. I imagine the CRA and other historical elements all take some of the blame, but the real point is NO-ONE at the federal government level is stepping up and saying do the hard thing.

Obama is at least hinting at the term "sacrifice" however, one can't be too conerned that he's really talking about sacrifice of liberties, instead of frivolity.

What brought about the US recovery from the Great Depression was NOT WWII per se, but the willingness of people to sacrifice and live modestly. People rationed meat, gasoline, tires, shoes, clothes, etc. They worked hard for low wages (either in factories or as soldiers). They grew victory gardens, and shared.

They were able to unite b/c of WWII, but it was not the actual war that solved the problem.

We as a country do need to unite and cooperate. But, we haven't done much of that since WWII, and certainly not since the fractious 1960s.

(09-09-2009 10:22 AM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(09-09-2009 10:13 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  I thought the Messiah told us we could spend our way out of recession? By reading that article, it would seem mathematically impossible. Is he saying the Messiah is blowing smoke up our a$$es.

In fairness he's saying this is a gov't myth that has persisted for some while.

W/o naming names, his timeline is pretty harsh toward the Bush administration's policies. I imagine the CRA and other historical elements all take some of the blame, but the real point is NO-ONE at the federal government level is stepping up and saying do the hard thing.

Obama is at least hinting at the term "sacrifice" however, one can't be too conerned that he's really talking about sacrifice of liberties, instead of frivolity.

What brought about the US recovery from the Great Depression was NOT WWII per se, but the willingness of people to sacrifice and live modestly. People rationed meat, gasoline, tires, shoes, clothes, etc. They worked hard for low wages (either in factories or as soldiers). They grew victory gardens, and shared.

They were able to unite b/c of WWII, but it was not the actual war that solved the problem.

We as a country do need to unite and cooperate. But, we haven't done much of that since WWII, and certainly not since the fractious 1960s.

Bush administration policies were horrible toward the economy. I think Shrub (or the neocons behind him) wanted the war in Iraq so bad that they let the left have their way on other issues in return for keeping the war. We'd have done better to finish Afghanistan in two years, then if we still wanted to go to Iraq be done there in two years too (and being done means all the bad guys dead--not neutralized, not effectively emasculated, not in prison, not on trial, not awaiting trial, but DEAD), all the while keeping sound economic policies in place.

Where we were at the beginning of Shrub's term, we could survive an eight-year disaster. We did. Where we are now, we can't survive eight more years of disaster. And I think that's exactly what Obama will bring about.

We need to in a direction that no American politician since at least Ross Perot has even talked about going. And we need to start going there last week. And there is nothing--absolutely nothing--in the Obama bag of tricks that will do anything but make the situation worse.

You include yourself in the noecon category, wanting them all dead is defiantly a neocon thing, you know.

(09-09-2009 02:28 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  You include yourself in the noecon category, wanting them all dead is defiantly a neocon thing, you know.

Not at all.

Neocons want to stay and run the country. I want to kill the bad guys and be done with it. Two VERY different goals.