Pacific test will determine Arrow's ability to intercept Iranian missiles close to launch

DEBKAfile Special Report

July 15, 2009, 8:57 PM (GMT+02:00)



Arrow test launch

In a few days, the Israeli anti-missile Arrow system will face the first real test, weather permitting, of its ability to knock out an Iranian Shehab-3 or Sejil II ballistic missile at the outset of its flight toward Israel, DEBKAfile's military sources report. The test will take place off central California's Pacific coast.

Lieut. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, director of the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency, said Tuesday, July 14: “The test will allow Israel to measure its advanced Arrow 3 system against a target with a range of more than 620 miles (1,000 km), too long for previous Arrow test sites in the eastern Mediterranean.”

The test will try and engage a target not only upwards of 1,000 km distant but close to its launch.

Until now, our military sources report, Arrow tests have been restricted by the small area of the Mediterranean Sea, the heavy air and maritime traffic in and above it, and the location of the Israeli missile launch site at Palmahim, from which missile flight westward is limited to a few hundred kilometers and disallowed in any other direction.

None of its 16 test flights has exercised the full potential of the Arrow's operational range for intercepting the flight path of possible Iranian missile attack on Israel.

For this reason, the Israeli missile command described past tests as 100 percent successful, while the Americans rated their success "90 percent."

The Pacific test will be launched from a point between Point Mugu and Santa Barbara north-west of Los Angeles. It will test the Arrow in uninterrupted flight against a target in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. The closest land to the site is Japan.

According to our military sources, this third Arrow exercise from a US site will also examine US-Israeli cooperation in missile interception in the event of an Iranian response to a possible Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities or an Iranian pre-emptive missile attack on Israel.

General O'Reilly announced that this would be the first full test of the ability of the American and Israeli intercept systems to work together and "provides us the opportunity to have the Patriot system, the THAAD system and the Aegis system all interacting with the Arrow system so that we're demonstrating full interoperability as we execute this test."

The significance of this disclosure is that for the first time, the joint operational capabilities of the Israel-based missile intercept systems and the American missile-intercept systems stationed in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf will be tested.

The exercise will also examine cooperation between the Israeli anti-aircraft defenses and the American satellites' early warning devices for missile launches. The Israeli and US arrays are connected through the sophisticated FBX-T radar station positioned at Israel's Nevatim airbase in the Negev, which is operated by soldiers and technicians belonging to EUCOM, the US European theater command.

DEBKAfile's military sources report that the exercise will not feature full operation of the American intercept systems, nor will American intercept missiles be launched, except for their sensor assets. In other words, the diverse radar systems will be activated to simulate an American-Israeli response to a missile attack.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6180

I know everyone is worried about Iran, it's nukes and their hatred for Israel, but does anyone think they'd actually do something knowing they'd be fried in the end?

What is really feared is not only an Islam Bomb with no return address, but a biological attack. For sure, Israel is just posturing on the missiles, no one would be so foolish to launch one against an ARROW Defense System. But, They have no other choice but to posture, since they cannot look to Washington for support. Terrahan, Mecca, should be the first to endure any retaliation if Israel is attacked, you would think that they have thought some of this through.

(07-16-2009 05:42 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  They have no other choice but to posture, since they cannot look to Washington for support.

Never thought I'd ever see such a sad, but true, statement.

(07-16-2009 05:02 PM)smn1256 Wrote:  I know everyone is worried about Iran, it's nukes and their hatred for Israel, but does anyone think they'd actually do something knowing they'd be fried in the end?

What, them worry? Islam promises eternal bliss to martyrs. In the mullah's mind, knocking out some Zionists just greases the hinges of the pearly gates.

(07-16-2009 05:02 PM)smn1256 Wrote:  I know everyone is worried about Iran, it's nukes and their hatred for Israel, but does anyone think they'd actually do something knowing they'd be fried in the end?

As long as they believe that Israel can be eradicated without nuclear weapons, then MAD might be enough of an incentive. If not, then it's anyone's guess - viewing the Iranian leadership as "rational actors" only goes so far.

The Iranian Theocracy professes beleif in the "Hidden Imam" islamic theology. Basically that they must bring destruction to the world to get their messiah(the hidden imam) to return.

So it comes down to: Do they really beleive this or not?

I'm not sure M.A.D. works with them, even if it does you still don't want them to get Nukes because it changes the ball game completely in their favor at that point. See North Korea

(07-16-2009 05:42 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  What is really feared is not only an Islam Bomb with no return address, but a biological attack. For sure, Israel is just posturing on the missiles, no one would be so foolish to launch one against an ARROW Defense System.

Why wouldn't they? Those type of systems are never tested fully under live conditions, there's always a chance they'll err.

That's why I capitalized TEST in the title. The only real test is one under live conditions, that's the posturing Israel is forced to do because they no longer have the support of the US.

I'm speculating but I think an Attack on Iran's Nuclear facilities is eminent. The world secretly wants Israel to do it, but will not outwardly support them.

THEN, When Obama fails Israel, his presidency will be OVER.

(07-17-2009 12:03 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  That's why I capitalized TEST in the title. The only real test is one under live conditions, that's the posturing Israel is forced to do because they no longer have the support of the US.

I'm speculating but I think an Attack on Iran's Nuclear facilities is eminent. The world secretly wants Israel to do it, but will not outwardly support them.

THEN, When Obama fails Israel, his presidency will be OVER.

Or Trip's aeschatalogical musings are proved correct.

This article is a bit misleading. The Arrow 3 isn't really a "longer range" interceptor-- it is higher altitude. Its designed to intercept targets outside the atmosphere, like the US Navy's SM-3 system. The Arrow 2 is an endo-atmosphereic system.

As far as where the Arrow will be launched from--I think it will be launched out of Kauai, where we have a missile test site.

(07-17-2009 12:03 PM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  I'm speculating but I think an Attack on Iran's Nuclear facilities is eminent. The world secretly wants Israel to do it, but will not outwardly support them.

What I fear is the that the reason they secretly want Israel to do it is to kill two birds with one stone - (1) to delay Iran's program and (2) to justify throwing Israel under the bus.

Iran Nuclear Arms Worst Threat to Security: Defense Sec. Gates

Friday, July 17, 2009 8:09 AM


CHICAGO -- Iran's nuclear ambitions are the greatest current threat to global security, says Defense Secretary Robert Gates.


"Iran is the one that concerns me the most because there don't seem to be good options (or a scenario) where one can have any optimism that good options will be found," Gates told the Economic Club of Chicago.


The threat rests not only in Iran's apparent determination to seek a nuclear weapon, but in the "inability of the international community to affect their determination to do that," Gates said.


"All of the outcomes are negative," he said. "If they achieve one, the possibility of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is very, very real.


"If something is done to prevent them from getting one, the consequences of that are completely unpredictable and frankly, very bad."


Gates said he has struggled to convince other nations, particularly Russia, that the Iranian situation threatens more countries than just the United States.


"Iran's going to have the capability to deliver nuclear weapons to the people in their region a lot sooner than they're going to have the capability to deliver them to us," he said.

2009 Agence France Presse. All rights reserved

July 16, 2009

Israeli navy in Suez Canal prepares for potential attack on Iran



Two Israeli missile class warships have sailed through the Suez Canal ten days after a submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, in preparation for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The deployment into the Red Sea, confirmed by Israeli officials, was a clear signal that Israel was able to put its strike force within range of Iran at short notice. It came before long-range exercises by the Israeli air force in America later this month and the test of a missile defence shield at a US missile range in the Pacific Ocean.

Israel has strengthened ties with Arab nations who also fear a nuclear-armed Iran. In particular, relations with Egypt have grown increasingly strong this year over the “shared mutual distrust of Iran”, according to one Israeli diplomat. Israeli naval vessels would likely pass through the Suez Canal for an Iranian strike.

“This is preparation that should be taken seriously. Israel is investing time in preparing itself for the complexity of an attack on Iran. These manoeuvres are a message to Iran that Israel will follow up on its threats,” an Israeli defence official said.

It is believed that Israel’s missile-equipped submarines, and its fleet of advanced aircraft, could be used to strike at in excess of a dozen nuclear-related targets more than 800 miles from Israel.

Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, said that his Government explicitly allowed passage of Israeli vessels, and an Israeli admiral said that the drills were “run regularly with the full co-operation of the Egyptians.”

Two Israeli Saar class missile boats and a Dolphin class submarine have passed through Suez. Israel has six Dolphin-class submarines, three of which are widely believed to carry nuclear missiles.

Israel will also soon test an Arrow interceptor missile on a US missile range in the Pacific Ocean. The system is designed to defend Israel from ballistic missile attacks by Iran and Syria. Lieutenant-General Patrick O’Reilly, the director of the Pentagon’s Missile Defence Agency, said that Israel would test against a target with a range of more than 630 miles (1,000km) — too long for previous Arrow test sites in the eastern Mediterranean.

The Israeli air force, meanwhile, will send F16C fighter jets to participate in exercises at Nellis Air Force base in Nevada this month. Israeli C130 Hercules transport aircraft will also compete in the Rodeo 2009 competition at McChord Air Force base in Washington.

“It is not by chance that Israel is drilling long-range manoeuvres in a public way. This is not a secret operation. This is something that has been published and which will showcase Israel’s abilities,” said an Israeli defence official.

He added that in the past, Israel had run a number of covert long-range drills. A year ago, Israeli jets flew over Greece in one such drill, while in May, reports surfaced that Israeli air force aircraft were staging exercises over Gibraltar. An Israeli attack on a weapons convoy in Sudan bound for militants in the Gaza Strip earlier this year was also seen as a rehearsal for hitting moving convoys.

The exercises come at a time when Western diplomats are offering support for an Israeli strike on Iran in return for Israeli concessions on the formation of a Palestinian state.

If agreed it would make an Israeli strike on Iran realistic “within the year” said one British official.

Diplomats said that Israel had offered concessions on settlement policy, Palestinian land claims and issues with neighboring Arab states, to facilitate a possible strike on Iran.

“Israel has chosen to place the Iranian threat over its settlements,” said a senior European diplomat.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/wo...715412.ece

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Most of us with Common Sense knows that once the Hornets Nest of Israel is loosed, no Nation will be able to reign her back in until she has finished her given task.

Obamagog has blown it like a $2 dollar Bourbon Street Hooker when it comes to Israel and Bush didn't do much better.

I fact the last President to Really Truly and Honestly Help Israel when they needed it and the Leave them the F'ck alone when they needed it was Ronald Reagan.

The rest of these Yahoos have tried to push some sort of False Peace and giving up of Land onto them for Decades now and it has simply really and very intently Pissed them Off.

I fear that when they turn loose this time, it is going to be BAD.

While Obamagog is off diddling Khadafi in Gunueria, Israel is preparing to Blow Iran and maybe Syria too, all the way back into the Jurassic Period.

If Israel does this, at least Obamagog will have some Dinosaurs to Fly his Family to Visit on Air Force One during "Family Outing Day" !!!!!!

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