(06-18-2009 03:24 PM)Raider_ATO Wrote: Detroit will come back (not as strong as before). Someday. They just need to find how to do something other than cars.
Possibly. Futurism is at best not an exact science. But, I seriously doubt it.
I think the push is to move south. Phx, Tucson, etc will all continue to grow.
Even w/ new technology, there is no push to do manufacturing in the US. Some chemical and pharma companies are bringing production back, but that will never replace the volume of the auto industry.
Detroit will shrink until it reaches an equilibrium. Hipsters, old-money, and the residual industry will keep some people employed. If the ports become useful again (only if the E Coast is booked so solid Det becomes an economic alternative), or the existing rail finds use, then maybe it will grow slightly.
Curiously, the Detroit metro area grew from 1990 to 2000, and saw little change from the 2008 estimate:
1980 1,203,368 4,387,783 5,203,269
1990 1,027,974 4,266,654 5,095,695
2000 951,270 4,441,551 5,357,538
2008* 916,952 4,425,110 5,354,225
But I'm guessing there will be a dramatic reduction. 2010 will see a metro back to about 5.1M...2012 will see close to another 10% decline, most from w/in the city. I bet by 2015, you'll be looking at a city much closer to 500K.