http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090616/ap_o...ing_starts

Take for what it is, but I have some questions. Is the 17.2% year over year...or from April to May? B/c if it's the latter, well it's a lot easier to get a bigger percentage jump when Apr was so low.

Anyway, the spin is positive, but I get the sense that it's just that: spin. Lots of factors are being overlooked, like sunk money in permitting and regulatory compliance, and the fact that sales aren't nearly as strong, meaning lower prices leading to slower existing home sales, and more losses as people are "upside down" in their mortgages.

I think they're peddling snake oil.

I think it has to be the latter, and Summer is prime months for construction

Quote:The 17.2 percent rise in housing construction for May still left activity 45.2 percent below where it was a year ago.

and 2008 wasn't that good

(06-16-2009 10:16 AM)GGniner Wrote:  I think it has to be the latter, and Summer is prime months for construction

Quote:The 17.2 percent rise in housing construction for May still left activity 45.2 percent below where it was a year ago.

and 2008 wasn't that good

Ok, so much like the durable goods orders, the construction was delayed from Apr to May (Apr was below forecasts) and they now trumpet a "greater than expected jump in percentage." C'mon now.

A full recovery in 30, or even 180 days, would scare me. There's no way we legitimately bounce back to those levels that quickly, and therefore nor would we want to.

Consistency is the key here. Consistent slow, sustainable growth is the goal. I'm nervous too, but let's see what happens.

Four people on my street had new roofs put on this month (I wonder if they bargained a group deal with the contractor? Smart), and a house sold for about $40k more than mine. Then, on the other side of the street is an attractive house/lot at a slightly high, but not unreasonable price, that has been on the market for going on 18 months. Baby steps. When and if that thing sells for the asking price, I'll maybe get optomistic.

I call BS!! I'm in the industry. It is NOT up here!!!

Seems like there's still a lot of extra supply. I don't think we're ready for a sustainable increase in housing construction yet.

(06-16-2009 04:59 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  Seems like there's still a lot of extra supply. I don't think we're ready for a sustainable increase in housing construction yet.

It's on a market by market basis. In a market like Charlotte, the supply is probably at 18 -24 mos, when 10 is probably the norm.

In Cali, Florida, etc?

Scary. I have a friend with a condo in FLA. Been on the market for years. They've just about given up.

(06-16-2009 05:35 PM)Artifice Wrote:  

(06-16-2009 04:59 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  Seems like there's still a lot of extra supply. I don't think we're ready for a sustainable increase in housing construction yet.

It's on a market by market basis. In a market like Charlotte, the supply is probably at 18 -24 mos, when 10 is probably the norm.

In Cali, Florida, etc?

Scary. I have a friend with a condo in FLA. Been on the market for years. They've just about given up.

I can tell you that other than a few beach and mountain communities that are attracting retirees and out of state buyers....NC is pretty much DOA at this point. Charlotte has a huge glut of multi million dollar homes.

(06-16-2009 08:05 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(06-16-2009 05:35 PM)Artifice Wrote:  

(06-16-2009 04:59 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  Seems like there's still a lot of extra supply. I don't think we're ready for a sustainable increase in housing construction yet.

It's on a market by market basis. In a market like Charlotte, the supply is probably at 18 -24 mos, when 10 is probably the norm.

In Cali, Florida, etc?

Scary. I have a friend with a condo in FLA. Been on the market for years. They've just about given up.

I can tell you that other than a few beach and mountain communities that are attracting retirees and out of state buyers....NC is pretty much DOA at this point. Charlotte has a huge glut of multi million dollar homes.

... yet multifamily is doing well and there are signs of recovery in the 100-150k range too.

(06-16-2009 04:59 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  Seems like there's still a lot of extra supply. I don't think we're ready for a sustainable increase in housing construction yet.

I post this not as "proof" of anything outside of the region, but rather as an example. You guys might have sites like this for your areas too. I found them useful.

http://www.recharts.com/mris/mris_18.html

I talked to a guy who works for DR Horton the other day, in Charlotte. He said all he could say is they are slow obviously but have started some new communities.

One thing that happened was the bubble caused increased demand for townhomes as the price of Single Family homes priced many out of the market(in Charlotte that was $275k and up range), now that the bubble has burst its helping the Single Family home market and hurting the Townhomes, for now.

If Interest Rates skyrocket down the road to pay for all this "Stimulus" spending, it will kill home prices and sales even worse than now. Imagine how much a 10% mortgage would be on a $300k home.

Lot of homes in my neighborhood for sale, but I wouldn't say the Augusta area is hurting.

This house has never sold and it was built and on the market before I even broke ground on my home, in January of 2006:

http://www.blanchardandcalhoun.com/propd...KEY=230330

To make the case for moving to Texas, where they don't manipulate their real estate market like so many others, I submit this:

My sister built a 2k square foot ALL BRICK(non-existent almost in Charlotte) around 2002 for $140k in a Golf course neighborhood in a Houston Sub-burb(near Woodlands).

She just sold(within a month with multiple offers) and bought a 4200 square foot ALL BRICK home in same neighborhood, for around $250k

In NC these homes would run at minimum $100k higher, maybe $150k higher atleast.

Now one difference with Texas though, is their Property Taxes are Twice as much as NC, on other hand they don't have a State Income Tax

Incomes in Houston are on par or higher than NC also

Texas real estate is ridiculously cheap. Every time my wife watches those home shows and you see what you can get there for under 400k, it's amazing. Houston has it's issues, but even Dallas/FT Worth and Austin are affordable. They've never had any market inflation there from the boom.

And GG, Charlotte is still cheap on a national scale. It's kind of depressing if you live here (if you move, you're probably going to have to downsize). We also didn't experience anywhere near the inflation levels of other markets. I know one of the two principals of Metrostudy. Former area builder. They do a great job of putting together and analyzing the data.

(06-16-2009 04:38 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  I call BS!! I'm in the industry. It is NOT up here!!!

Ditto.