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Looks like quite the standoff
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #21
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-10-2009 10:49 PM)I45owl Wrote:  
(04-10-2009 05:01 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  The mother ship that is supposedly coming to rescue needs to be sunk. Hopefully there will be enough pirates onboard that when they're dead it will put a real kink into the piracy operations. In any event, our willingness to send a ship filled with pirates to the bottom of the ocean should have something of a chilling effect on the ones who are not killed. I guess the one thing that would put a kink in that would be if there are any hostages hanging around from other operations and the pirates manage to get them on the "moter ship" with them.
Aren't the "mother ships" they're sending out really captured freighters with their own set of hostages? If so, it seems like you'd risk killing 10-20 hostages if you tried to sink one.

Yes, after reading some more, I think that's exactly what they are.

We absolutely cannot let the pirates bring in one of these hijacked ships and sweep away the lifeboat. Knowing a bit about how the eastern mind works, that would be the end of US credibility in that part of the world.

If it were my decision, I'd be looking for a way to disable but not sink the ships before they get to the area. I'm wondering if we could put torpedos into their screws/rudders and essentially immobilize them. Would be very difficult to be that precise with a torpedo, to do the job without doing too much damage or sinking the ship. I'm guessing if we sink the ships the hostages would be imprisoned and go down with them.

Other possibility would be to get commandos onto the ships somehow. Depending on how well the pirates are armed, that could be very difficult to execute.

We've also got the problem that we could kill multiple foreign national hostages trying to save one American hostage, and what would that do in the court of world opinion.

One question I have. This has been going on for months. Shouldn't we have established a much stronger presence, made up of ships more suited to the task? Bainbridge is an Arleigh Burke 2, I believe, designed to operate in an intense multi-threat environment. Much of her electronics suite is totally unnecessary in this kind of situation. Bainbridge is basically ill-suited for this task, certainly considering what the Burkes cost compared to what we could build a lot cheaper. Does she truly not have a helo embarked? Where are hers? Why is a ship with no helos the primary on-scene presence? OK, I realize there's some luck of the draw in which ship is closest when a random event occurs. But why is a ship with no helos even in the mix?
(This post was last modified: 04-10-2009 11:19 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
04-10-2009 11:18 PM
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Post: #22
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
Lots of interesting "seaborne terrorist" discussion over at the USNI Blog.

It’s been noted here (see here) and other places that the Somalia pirates have shifted some of their operations to a sea lane about 400 - 500 nautical miles off the east coast of Somalia. They are able to find ships in that area because despite the vast size of the Indian Ocean, most ships follow time tested routes that save time and fuel and carry them to ports. These routes are logical and well known.

Take a look at the nearby maps. At the top is an older map (Map 1) showing the dhow routes that have been sailed since ancient times. There’s a pattern to the flow of dhows. ***

[Image: map1-287x300.jpg]

The second map (Map 2) is my own presentation of red lines of the sea lanes off the coast of Africa. In the modern sea faring world ships, in theory, may have the freedom to choose their routes and the freedom of the open sea, etc, etc, but the practical reality is that merchant ships are driven by the cruel masters of time and money. For the owners of merchant ships time is money and any ship’s master who decides to wander all over the ocean instead of taking the shortest, fastest route from one port to another will quickly be out of a job. Since there can only be one “shortest, fastest, safest route between two ports” that route becomes a sea lane. The seemingly chaotic world of ocean shipping is in many ways quite predictable. It is this predictability that the Somali pirates now rely on.

[Image: map2-221x300.jpg]

Map 3 superimposes on those sea lanes the most recent ships attacks and hijackings. While the maps I used don’t mesh exactly (and I am too lazy to make them fit) the point I am making is clear. The pirate attacks happen along the sea lanes. Why? Because, to paraphrase Willie Sutton, “that’s where the ships are.”

[Image: map3-221x300.jpg]

Given all of the above, Somali pirates and their confederates may lie in wait along these predictable routes and wait for ships to come to them - as they inevitably will.

How do you thwart these pirates at sea? One possibility, in use in the Gulf of Aden, is to flood the sea lanes with sea policemen or naval forces who serve to deter or stops assaults on shipping in their beat area. Another possibility, especially when you have limited naval assets, and which is also in use in the Gulf of Aden, is to provide escorts to single or multiple ships as they transit the risk areas during periods when the pirates are likely to be active (low winds, day light hours or during periods of a bright moon) or escort ships that have proven to be at risk (low freeboard ships, slow transit speeds).

Put helicopters and UAVs in the air and learn the local fishing patterns to find the “fishing boats” that don’t acty like the others. Use the helicopters to scout routes ahead of merchant ships.

Points A, B and C on Map 5 become Ocean Convoy Collection Points (OCCPs) where ships desiring to transit piracy risk areas can gather for convoying to the other points.

Now, I know very well that what I said before about time and money are negative motivators for merchant ships to wait for convoys to be formed. And, after all, the odds of being nabbed by pirates are pretty slim. However, there are some risk adverse ship owners who will accept the convoys, especially if their insurance carrier will lower premiums for convoy participants.

I said it before and I’ll say it again - given a chance - convoys work.

And, if you aren’t going to invade Somalia to take out pirate havens, you don’t really have a lot of other options.

[Image: map5-221x300.jpg]

http://blog.usni.org/
04-11-2009 05:59 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #23
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
Good analysis, WMD. I'd expect nothing less from you.

This would seem to be a primo convoy case. You don't have a sophisticated threat, so just putting a gun platform out there would seem to work. You could probably get considerable allied support, so the number of available escorts would go up. And allied navies have lots more of the low-value escort-type vessels that are all you need for this.

One thing that might help would be to have some idea of distance. This is a vast, largely empty area. Off the top of my head I remember that Mombasa, Kenya, to Port Victoria in the Seychelles (just below the intersection of the two red lines that extend south to either side of Madagascar) is right at 1000 nautical miles, so your shaded square is roughly equivalent to the eastern seaboard of the US. That's too big an area to be able to accomplish much with a token force.

I'm surprised we aren't doing convoys on a much larger scale already. Actually I'm surprised at how puny our response has been all around. It can't really be blamed on requirements for Iraq or Afghanistan, as neither of them is much of a navy show. You could make the case that a large presence in this area actually constitutes staging forces where it would be easy to move a few units up there to help out if need be.

One barrier that I do see too effective use of naval vessels is the byzantine rules of engagement that we seem always to impose. If we are to shut this down, we need to have the freedom to vaporize anything that has pirates on it. If we get an "innocent fishing vessel" by mistake, our leaders need to cover our sailors' backs instead of stabbing them. Odds are, it was no innocent fishing vessel to begin with. And letting the word get out that we had no intention of being overly careful, so you better mind your p's and q's, would not be a bad thing.
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2009 07:07 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
04-11-2009 07:04 AM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-10-2009 11:18 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  We absolutely cannot let the pirates bring in one of these hijacked ships and sweep away the lifeboat. Knowing a bit about how the eastern mind works, that would be the end of US credibility in that part of the world.

If it were my decision, I'd be looking for a way to disable but not sink the ships before they get to the area. I'm wondering if we could put torpedos into their screws/rudders and essentially immobilize them. Would be very difficult to be that precise with a torpedo, to do the job without doing too much damage or sinking the ship. I'm guessing if we sink the ships the hostages would be imprisoned and go down with them.

Other possibility would be to get commandos onto the ships somehow. Depending on how well the pirates are armed, that could be very difficult to execute.

We've also got the problem that we could kill multiple foreign national hostages trying to save one American hostage, and what would that do in the court of world opinion.

All of the above makes a lot of sense to me, particularly the possibility of boarding with commandos. The purported inability of the pirates holding the captain to communicate may be the only thing that will keep him alive.

The current testicular deficiency at the top of the chain of command makes it seem likely to me that nothing will be done and you've already drawn your conclusion there, and are almost certainly right.

The other possibility is just to put an end to Somali fishing outside of their territorial waters, but cue the bleeding hearts...

(04-10-2009 11:18 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  One question I have. This has been going on for months. Shouldn't we have established a much stronger presence, made up of ships more suited to the task?

It seems like the risk from Somali pirates may be overstated on the whole. I heard that there are 30,000 ships that transit those sea lanes and 300 have been boarded by pirates. That's probably why it doesn't make sense to arm every ship and provide an escort for every one. I really haven't seen a thorough risk management type of analysis for this situation, but the three preceding posts are a really good start.

edit: of course the cheapest option may be to put forces on land. I think the latest extortion effort was to bypass the middlemen and the "governor" of the area that includes the Somali home port for the pirates asked for "foreign aid" to take care of the problem on the ground.
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2009 07:29 AM by I45owl.)
04-11-2009 07:26 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #25
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-11-2009 07:26 AM)I45owl Wrote:  It seems like the risk from Somali pirates may be overstated on the whole. I heard that there are 30,000 ships that transit those sea lanes and 300 have been boarded by pirates. That's probably why it doesn't make sense to arm every ship and provide an escort for every one. I really haven't seen a thorough risk management type of analysis for this situation, but the three preceding posts are a really good start.

Your statistics sound right. Factor in the vastness of the region (alluded to in WMD's post and mine above) and you get some idea of the dimension of the problem. The average person (not that you are anything but well above average, I45) simply doesn't comprehend how vast and empty that area is. I remember sailing from Seychelles to Bombay, 2000+ miles and we saw exactly one other ship for the duration of the passage until we reached Indian coastal waters. I think the threat is ultimately that having lawlessness in any form over such a widespread area is a threat to western society. There are, what, 20 million people in the New York metro area, and only 3000 of them got killed on 9/11, but we can't tolerate that kind of lawlessness on an ongoing basis.

I read a recent analysis that makes this interesting argument. The US is the unquestioned master of the seas. No other nation (and no other consortium of nations) really challenges our domination of the seas. That is a huge strategic advantage (not that we use it to best advantage, but it's there if we did). Nobody will challenge us there until we either (1) threaten them too directly, or (2) fail to keep order at sea. We need to nip this in the bud before it grows into (2).

We're not good at this. We win wars by overwhelming people with the capacity of our economic system, not by outsmarting people. Civil War and WWII are two primo examples, but it's a trend in all our wars. That needs to change, and now would be a good time to change it. Material advantage is not nearly so critical in asymetrical warfare as is cleverness. The more tightly things are controlled from Washington, the harder it is to be clever.
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2009 10:28 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
04-11-2009 07:47 AM
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Post: #26
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-11-2009 07:04 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I'm surprised we aren't doing convoys on a much larger scale already. Actually I'm surprised at how puny our response has been all around. It can't really be blamed on requirements for Iraq or Afghanistan, as neither of them is much of a navy show. You could make the case that a large presence in this area actually constitutes staging forces where it would be easy to move a few units up there to help out if need be.

One barrier that I do see too effective use of naval vessels is the byzantine rules of engagement that we seem always to impose. If we are to shut this down, we need to have the freedom to vaporize anything that has pirates on it. If we get an "innocent fishing vessel" by mistake, our leaders need to cover our sailors' backs instead of stabbing them. Odds are, it was no innocent fishing vessel to begin with. And letting the word get out that we had no intention of being overly careful, so you better mind your p's and q's, would not be a bad thing.

If we were going to get serious about convoys we would need NATO contributions, as well as a shore base. Mombasa should work.

You would need at least 15 frigate types available, 1 LHD (for offshore basing and maintenance) underway replenishment ships, and Predator/P-3 support. Maybe this will speed up the plans to test launching Predators from LHD's
04-11-2009 09:52 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
And the seaborne terrorists got another one....

NAIROBI, April 11 (Reuters) - Pirates seized a U.S.-owned and Italian-flagged tugboat with 16 crew on Saturday in the latest hijacking in the busy Gulf of Aden waterway, a regional maritime group said.

Andrew Mwangura, of the Mombasa-based East African Seafarers' Assistance Programme, said the crew were believed to be unharmed on the tugboat, which he added was operated from the United Arab Emirates.

He said the tugboat was towing two barges at the time of capture but there were no details on their cargo.

"This incident shows the pirates are becoming more daring and violent," Mwangura told Reuters by phone.

NATO alliance officials on board the Portuguese warship NRB Corte-Real, which is patrolling the Gulf of Aden, said a distress call came from the MV Buccaneer tugboat but communications were lost six minutes later.

They said 10 of the tugboat's crew were Italian citizens.

Somali pirates have stepped up attacks in March after a lull at the start of 2009.

International interest has focused this week on the plight of an American hostage, Richard Phillips, held by four pirates on a lifeboat flanked by U.S. naval warships in a high seas standoff since Wednesday. (Additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne in Nairobi and Alison Bevege on the NRB Corte-Real)

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LB80287.htm
04-11-2009 10:06 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #28
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-11-2009 09:52 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  If we were going to get serious about convoys we would need NATO contributions, as well as a shore base. Mombasa should work.
You would need at least 15 frigate types available, 1 LHD (for offshore basing and maintenance) underway replenishment ships, and Predator/P-3 support. Maybe this will speed up the plans to test launching Predators from LHD's

Whatever we do has to be a NATO show. Our NATO partners actually have more appropriate resources for this than we do. French Floreals, Italian Lupos and Maestrales, Portuguese da Gamas, Dutch Kortenaers, German Bremens, Greek Ellis are all better suited to this mission, at a lot cheaper price, than the Burkes. We could also bring in some bigger NATO ships like the Italian Garibaldi/Cavour, the Spanish Principe de Asturias, or the Royal Navy through-deck cruisers. I suspect that one reason we haven't responded more forcefully is that the incidence of pirate events is low enough that it's hard to justify sticking many assets as expensive as Burkes on pirate duty. We need numbers, and all the numbers have to have is a helo or two and a gun or two. No real need for ASW or AAW capability, at least not at this point.

What about putting military detachments onboard? You could put an armed detachment of about 20 onboard for the transit, and helo lift them off before entering territorial waters at their destination, in order to avoid the diplomatic issues. Obviously, we'd need some platforms available and positioned for onload/offload, but given the predictability of the mership routes, that might not be too daunting a task. It would be cheaper than escorting, and until the pirates get subs or MiGs it would be adequate to deal with the threat.

I'm guessing that the forces we've had out there have been operating under some engagement rules that pretty much reduce them to idle observers unless they come across an incident in progress. They need to turn into HUK groups, hunt and kill on a preemptory basis. I'm guessing the pirates hide out among fishing fleets, but with proper surveillance it should be possible to pick out who are the real fishermen and who aren't. Board and search the questionable ones. Boats that don't have any fish onboard probably aren't fishing boats. You sink the ones that aren't, and let their crews swim ashore if they can. That's hard-nosed, but nothing less is going to work. Worry less about bringing the pirates to justice and more about bringing justice to the pirates.

We worry too much about being liked in the world. There are times that the only thing that will work is to make people fear us. This is one of those times.
04-11-2009 10:25 AM
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Post: #29
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-11-2009 07:47 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Factor in the vastness of the region (alluded to in WMD's post and mine above) and you get some idea of the dimension of the problem. The average person (not that you are anything but well above average, I45)
03-lmfao

(04-11-2009 07:47 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  simply doesn't comprehend how vast and empty that area is. I remember sailing from Seychelles to Bombay, 2000+ miles and we saw exactly one other ship for the duration of the passage until we reached Indian coastal waters.

One thing that I've wondered about is how easy it is to navigate a shipping container and find a drifting lifeboat, given about 24 hours from a known location (presumably GPS + sat phone pinpoints it pretty well for the pirates.

Anyone care to give the odds that the prate ships are allowed to reach the lifeboat?

(04-11-2009 07:47 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I read a recent analysis that makes this interesting argument. The US is the unquestioned master of the seas. No other nation (and no other consortium of nations) really challenges our domination of the seas. That is a huge strategic advantage (not that we use it to best advantage, but it's there if we did). Nobody will challenge us there until we either (1) threaten them too directly, or (2) fail to keep order at sea. We need to nip this in the bud before it grows into (2).

We're not good at this. We win wars by overwhelming people with the capacity of our economic system, not by outsmarting people. Civil War and WWII are two primo examples, but it's a trend in all our wars. That needs to change, and now would be a good time to change it. Material advantage is not nearly so critical in asymetrical warfare as is cleverness. The more tightly things are controlled from Washington, the harder it is to be clever.

All good points.
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2009 12:06 PM by I45owl.)
04-11-2009 12:06 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #30
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
I'm beginning to think that the best way out may be to pay the ransom to get this guy back, and then put together a task force to put an end to the problem.

Put enough naval forces, and enough of the right kinds of forces, to stop the piracy. Put together a multi-national ground force to go in and clean up Somalia. There has been a problem with finding enough international will to get the job done, but that job gets easier with each new hijacking.
04-11-2009 01:13 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
While they are at it, someone needs to find the source of the Pirate intelligence.

I think someone working for a shipping company or a maritime insurance company is tipping them off. It itsn't blind luck that they are in the right place at the right time 400 miles off the Somali coast.
04-11-2009 03:39 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
.

You notice that out of "8 Years of GW in Office", not one single United States Flag Ship was molested by these pure Bred Retarded Mistakes of Nature.

And after comes "OBAMA IN DA HOWZE", we have a Military Standoff with Somali Pirates floating helpless hundreds of miles from any shore, in an Ugly little Orange Boat the size of a Dingy, holding off Thousands of Tons of U.S. Warship Displacement and it has been ongoing for DAYS NOW ????

Guys, Navy Seals go miles into Slit Your Throat if Caught nations all the time and take care of business and WE won't unleash them on a freakin little orange boat floating 500 miles out in the Ocean ????

Seals could have already handled this if THEY WERE LET HANDLE IT .....

"SLEEPING GAS" anyone ??????

Some one is acting a fool on this one and I WONDER WHO THAT SOMEONE IS ???? 01-wingedeagle 01-wingedeagle 01-wingedeagle

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04-11-2009 03:50 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
I say take out the pirate leadership and let them know who did it. Then take out any capability for the pirates to launch or maintain boats. I can't negotiate with my cat but she certainly understands and remembers a good kick in the ass.
04-11-2009 03:55 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
When will this thing end? This has gone on long enough. We need to drop some bombs, and I mean now. 05-stirthepot
04-11-2009 04:12 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-11-2009 04:12 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  When will this thing end? This has gone on long enough. We need to drop some bombs, and I mean now. 05-stirthepot

Yeah this is all funny and sh't right now .... you know just a bunch of Water Thugs kicking it along the Coast and all ...

These bastards are murderers and don't care about bleedin' you or your 6 month old baby.

If you can not see that this TREND is getting worse and exponentially more aggressive and frequent, then what is it going to take to wake the WORLD the FCK UP about this and DROP SOME BOMBS ?????

These people are a threat to thousands of human beings on planet earth and we sit back and let it go on and on and on because IT DOESN'T AFFECT US since we live on DRY LAND .... well it does affect us and it is time to STOP IT.

One tiny little piece of nasty sh't nation is pretty much holding any Entire Industry and all the Worlds Nations for Ransom at Gunpoint and everyone thinks it is cute to make fun of the guys who want to go in and Kill These Mongrel Heathens and send them on to ALLAH ...

There aren't many Christian Somalis or I would be PC and include God in there too when they die from Lead Poisoning.

Quote:Most Somalis are Sunni Muslims. (Less than 1 percent of ethnic Somalis are Christians.)

I don't see why the Oval Office Muslim Messiah just don't give 'em all Welfare and STIMULATE THEM into being better than they are .... I mean he could bend over and kiss their ass .... errr .... I mean their Rings and stuff 03-banghead 03-banghead

After all, Kenyan Born Messiah gives $Trillions$ to his Native Countries Neighbors and Kinsmen ... Now that's PROGRESS we can believe in !!!!

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04-11-2009 04:47 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-11-2009 03:50 PM)Tripster Wrote:  You notice that out of "8 Years of GW in Office", not one single United States Flag Ship was molested by these pure Bred Retarded Mistakes of Nature.

I don't think that's true. I believe there was one in 2006, but I'm too lazy to look it up now.
04-11-2009 05:07 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-11-2009 03:55 PM)smn1256 Wrote:  I say take out the pirate leadership and let them know who did it. Then take out any capability for the pirates to launch or maintain boats. I can't negotiate with my cat but she certainly understands and remembers a good kick in the ass.

Unfortunately, I'd bet there are lots of thugs willing to become a new pirate leadership. Life doesn't hold the same cachet in that part of the world.......
04-12-2009 07:46 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Looks like quite the standoff
(04-12-2009 07:46 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  
(04-11-2009 03:55 PM)smn1256 Wrote:  I say take out the pirate leadership and let them know who did it. Then take out any capability for the pirates to launch or maintain boats. I can't negotiate with my cat but she certainly understands and remembers a good kick in the ass.

Unfortunately, I'd bet there are lots of thugs willing to become a new pirate leadership. Life doesn't hold the same cachet in that part of the world.......

You're probably right, we'll have to kill 'em all.
04-12-2009 09:43 AM
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