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2009 A Very Scary Year
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firmbizzle Offline
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Post: #21
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Jugnaut Wrote:
firmbizzle Wrote:I'm invested with Peter Schiff and have lost 40% of my savings in the last 2 months.

You'll get it back if you keep the gold and international stocks. I'm investing in silver because gold to silver ratio is 70:1 instead of the historical 16:1. Silver's going to go up soon.

I'm debating whether to take the loss on my international stocks and go into silver, or wait and see if they go back up. I'm heavily invested in energy around the world.
11-24-2008 11:54 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Jugnaut Wrote:We're in a temporary deflationary period, but we'll soon be in an extreme inflationary period.
Here's why:
1) The U.S. has $10 Trillion in outstanding debt ($60 Trillion in actual obligations)
2) Inflation is tied to an increase in money supply.
3) Other countries (our creditors) are starting to realize we aren't good for the loans they've already given, plus they're in their own economic downturns. They will stop lending the U.S. money in the near future.
4) When lending stops we either have to drastically cut spending (which we won't) or print more money. Bernanke is known as helicopter Ben because he thinks the solution to everything is to print more money. This will cause great inflation.
5) As America has record deficits under Obama and prints insane amounts of money for Bailing out the entire economy (estimates are a $2 Trillion deficit in 09), other countries will want to unload the dollar to avoid it losing value. The dollar is the reserve currency around the world. Most central banks have large quantities of it.
6) When the central banks flood the market trying to unload the dollar, the money supply increases very dramatically. The dollar will lose about 90% of it's value. So a Big Mac meal will go from $6 to $60. This sucks for people who save their money, but it's great for government as they can basically avoid paying the full amount of their debts.
We'll experience a situation like Weimar Republic Germany in which they burned piles of money because it was cheaper than buying wood.

I'll reiterate what I'm already on record as projecting: 50 million unemployed plus 50% inflation.

If we miss those targets, I'm guessing that unemployment tops out lower (maybe 20 million, as the Obamacrats scamper to introduce make-work programs) but that inflation goes higher (100%, 200%, 1000%, infinity, you name it).

There is one wild card that I see. China decides it wants Taiwan back, and believes that it has sufficient military might to take it back (3-5 years, I'm guessing, for them to get there given their current levels of military spending). We do not want that to happen, so we put the Seventh Fleet in the way. China bites the bullet and dumps our debt on the world market. They hold enough to crater the dollar.

The longer we go without (1) saving more individually, (2) balancing the federal budget, and (3) reducing what we import as a total economy, the greater the risk of hyperinflationary depression becomes. I don't see anything in any of Obama's proposals to address any one of the three.

For the record, I didn't see anyting to address any one of the three areas in McCain's plans, except for increased domestic drilling, not in anything that Shrub has done, other than some minimal opening up of areas for drilling (that Obama apparently intends to re-shut).
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2008 12:07 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
11-24-2008 12:05 PM
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Jugnaut Offline
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Post: #23
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:
Jugnaut Wrote:We're in a temporary deflationary period, but we'll soon be in an extreme inflationary period.
Here's why:
1) The U.S. has $10 Trillion in outstanding debt ($60 Trillion in actual obligations)
2) Inflation is tied to an increase in money supply.
3) Other countries (our creditors) are starting to realize we aren't good for the loans they've already given, plus they're in their own economic downturns. They will stop lending the U.S. money in the near future.
4) When lending stops we either have to drastically cut spending (which we won't) or print more money. Bernanke is known as helicopter Ben because he thinks the solution to everything is to print more money. This will cause great inflation.
5) As America has record deficits under Obama and prints insane amounts of money for Bailing out the entire economy (estimates are a $2 Trillion deficit in 09), other countries will want to unload the dollar to avoid it losing value. The dollar is the reserve currency around the world. Most central banks have large quantities of it.
6) When the central banks flood the market trying to unload the dollar, the money supply increases very dramatically. The dollar will lose about 90% of it's value. So a Big Mac meal will go from $6 to $60. This sucks for people who save their money, but it's great for government as they can basically avoid paying the full amount of their debts.
We'll experience a situation like Weimar Republic Germany in which they burned piles of money because it was cheaper than buying wood.

I'll reiterate what I'm already on record as projecting: 50 million unemployed plus 50% inflation.

If we miss those targets, I'm guessing that unemployment tops out lower (maybe 20 million, as the Obamacrats scamper to introduce make-work programs) but that inflation goes higher (100%, 200%, 1000%, infinity, you name it).

There is one wild card that I see. China decides it wants Taiwan back, and believes that it has sufficient military might to take it back (3-5 years, I'm guessing, for them to get there given their current levels of military spending). We do not want that to happen, so we put the Seventh Fleet in the way. China bites the bullet and dumps our debt on the world market. They hold enough to crater the dollar.

The longer we go without (1) saving more individually, (2) balancing the federal budget, and (3) reducing what we import as a total economy, the greater the risk of hyperinflationary depression becomes. I don't see anything in any of Obama's proposals to address any one of the three.

For the record, I didn't see anyting to address any one of the three areas in McCain's plans, except for increased domestic drilling, not in anything that Shrub has done, other than some minimal opening up of areas for drilling (that Obama apparently intends to re-shut).

Fed Reserve Promises to give out 7.4 Trillion, half of last year's GDP

The only way out I see is a new currency. We're totally screwed.
11-24-2008 12:15 PM
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EastStang Offline
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Post: #24
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
With regard to the "pretty money" argument, that is a load of what comes out of Peruna's butt. As most security experts will tell you, the changes to the money had everything to do with making it more difficult to counterfeit our currency. Not sure why they bothered with the $5 bill, but probably did so for consistency. They still haven't mastered the $1 coin either. There is a lot of pressure from vending companies, to master a $1 coin that vending machines can process.
11-24-2008 12:17 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Let's get back to a few basics.

Economics is about supply and demand. There are demand-side theorists (Keynes) and supply-side theorists (Laffer). I think you have to look at the balance. Let's see where we are right now:

1. We consume more (and save less) of what we earn than do the citizens of any other developed economy.
2. We consume so much more than we make that we are the largest net importer in the world, by an amazingly large margin. Of the 163 nations for which statistics are kept, 62 were net exporters and 101 were net importers in 2007. We were a net importer, and our net imports exceeded the TOTAL for the other 100 importing countries.
3. A major factor in the current widespread economic meltdown is that the private sector isn't creating enough investment capital to tide people over when they experience problems, so the government is having to bail out the ones that are in trouble. The further problem is that, unless we create some capital, everyone is ultimately going to have liquidity problems. The problem with the mortgage meltdown wasn't really that so many mortgages were in default (the default rate was a bit higher than historic trends, but not a quantum jump higher), but rather that lenders couldn't access investment capital to tide them over while they worked out of the problems.

These and other trends suggest to me that the demand side is way out of synch with the supply side. Trying to stimulate demand doesn't work for at least two reasons. First, consumers are so far in debt that they've already consumed way past their limits. Second, because we can't supply enough to meet demand, the economies that we really help by stimulating demand are those in places like China and Japan, not our own.

This crisis has been building for a long time, since at least the 1970s. It almost blew up under Carter. Regan's supply side tax cuts stemmed the tide for a while, but at the cost of huge deficit spending. Bush didn't really know where to take the ball next, and Perot took him to task on it in 1992. Perot understood the economy from the perspective of a participant, and his analysis of our economy in 1992 was one of the best; unfortunately, many of the issues he raised have not yet been addressed. By the time Clinton got into office, the supply side had perked up enough that he could balance the budgets with a slight tweak of the tax code. After the Clinton tax cuts, our tax code was far more favorable to the supply side than what Reagan had inherited. Other countries took note, and the last 10-15 years have seen supply-side tax cuts in virtually every developed country. Go to the OECD website and download their databases if you want to check this out. By the time Shrub took over, the rest of the world had figured out that there is a place for supply-side economics, and whatever advantage we had gained during the Reagan-to-Clinton years had been overcome. We needed something new, and Shrub didn't deliver. What the rest of the world has now done is to implement consumption taxes to restore the supply-demand balance. I believe that our only option is to do the same, or we will continue to lose ground.

The policies that Obama has proposed are almost entirely demand-sided. To the extent that the supply side will be impacted, those impacts will be more negative than positive. That will put us even further out of balance. Not good.
11-24-2008 12:34 PM
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Jugnaut Offline
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Post: #26
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Very detailed analysis Owl! It's interesting to see how different people come to the same conclusion through different methods. I look at it through Austrian and Chicago School Economics. I hate Keynesian economics. It's just sad that most people think the free-market caused the problems when it was really the governments own actions that have caused almost all the problems.
11-24-2008 12:40 PM
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RobertN Offline
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Post: #27
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Tripster Wrote:.
So RobertN .....

What you just told us all is that "When Americans can NOT Afford to buy groceries to keep from starving, gas & electricity to keep from Freezing to Death, needed Medications to stay alive, take their Children to the Hospital or they Die, THEY CAN STILL AFFORD HIGHER TAXES THAT GET THEM NOTHING FOR THEIR DOLLAR ????

I get ZERO, ZIP, NADA Government Help, Entitlements, or am not on any Government Program .... when I can no longer purchase the Necessities because I am being Taxed out my Gazoo, that is OK right ??? ....

It is when I am making a little Profit and can live a little by going to a Movie or two a year that I am being Selfish and Need to HAND IT OVER until I can no longer afford to buy just even the Necessities and am in Group One as described above ????

See I just don't understand that Al Gore Idiotic Way of Fiscal Thinking and believe me, IT IS THE "BOTTOM UP" because the Bottom is where this is going to drop every body off at.

Is what we are seeing a Backlash of 9/11 ... a heck of a lot of Scholars and Think Tank Groups think so and they come from Left & Right.

Sure the War Fronts are costing Billions and Billions, but IF, just IF, 90% of our Financial Woes are the Result of 9/11's impact on our Economy ..... WHAT in the world will we do if we don't try to put it down over there and hope and PRAY that 9/11 never happens here Again ???

We can blame Bush all we want and I think Bush was one of the Worst "At Home Presidents" we have ever had ..... he is one Heck of a World President and he has looked beyond our own Borders too damm long.

Obama is NOT going to be able to Fix this and he is seeing that he IS IN WAY WAY over his head and is Filling Cabinet Post after Cabinet Post with either Center, Center Right, or pure Conservatives.

They are Comparing Obama's Cabinet Appointments almost kind-for-kind just like John F. Kennedy's.

Maybe Obama has finally had time to sit down and honestly look at the REAL TRUTH that only a President knows ... he is now getting daily, weekly briefings just the same a Bush is getting them and now he is saying to himself, "OH SHYTE" !!!!! "I never realized all this was going on" .... and he is appointing People According to how they can make the Right Thing Happen the Quickest ..... right now, Party Lines are not mattering to Obama - - will this change as he Grows with the Office .... most likely ..... but then he may just Like Being in the Center where most all the Good in Politics ever comes from.

All that Liberal versus Conservative noise is out the window when the Truth and all its ugliness is slapping you in the face like it is slapping Obama right now .... I bet he hasn't slept more than a couple of hours a night since he received his First Briefing and got a Ton of OH SHYTE dropped on him.

This ain't the Campaign any longer and the Stump has got to go in the Closet ... there are no more HuuuRaaaYaaa Speeches to give or sound bites to grab .... there is only the Oval Office and the Bitter Reality of "OH SHYTE" ...

And I caught your saying that it would "surprise you if I came on the Forum one day and did not try to scare every one to death" ..... man RobertN, I am just calling like I see it and from what I read, hear, and sit down and try to decipher out of all the B.S. .... and RobertN .... it don't look good at all for our Future.

Many many people from ALL Sides of the Aisle & Political Color are saying this .... and I have seen it coming since 9/11 and I swear I did not think the Super Recession and the Ultimate Depression would have taken this long to Show Up ... I thought within at least a Couple of Years and especially after Katrina, Rita, and the other Hellish Storm hits, that we surely would see our Economy Tank and HERE IT IS.

I think Bush going to Full Out War in 2003, caused the Coming 9/11 Financial Woes to slow down or stall a bit, too lag if you will .... I mean for a while there, we were moving money and funneling money through this channel and that channel and we just stopped the Recession with Paper Work and Money Shuffling or for a better term, "We Delayed the Inevitable" by artificially stimulating the economy thru War Preparations and War Funding ...

It was coming and there is no doubt it was .... this is absolutely no surprise to the Financial Wonks, but no one was listening to them. And we are still like little children on such things ... we think if we hide from it long enough, it will just go away ... well it doesn't go away does it ???

I hate it for all Parties, Aisle Sides, and Human Beings since we feed about Half the World as it is now.

You go into a bar in Anywhere United States and a beer cost you up to $4 or $5 dollars in some Cities and States .... the same beer in Mexico, Central, and South America will cost you .25 Cents to maybe .50 Cents ...... now that SHYTE AIN'T RIGHT !!! and it is us, trying to stay the Capitalist Giant and also to Help other countries that can not afford a $1 Dollar per can Beer. I need Medicines that cost $700 a Month (just a single 30 day supply) and I can't get this kind of help and YET, we can Sell Fooking Beer to Mexico and South America for 1/10th what Americans pay for it !!!!!! Tell me this is RIGHT ….

It is crazy and we are all paying for it with OUR MONEY .... the Government is WRONG .... when WE, The Citizen, can not afford to buy it, we don't get it .... when the Government can't afford to buy it, they BUY IT ANY WAY and TOSS IT BACK ON US IN THE FORM OF TAXES.

We can not do it any longer and that is the "Bottom Up/Trickle Down Line".

Ahhhh .... I just have never seen it this bad is all.

.
Do you always write novels for responses? 04-jawdrop Anyway, obviously you make over 250,000 so I guess your taxes will probably go up. If I am not mistaken, it is a 3% increase. If you are going to not be able to afford food and necessities with a 3% increase on that 250,000, you REAALLY have a major problem with your finances.
11-24-2008 01:00 PM
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DrTorch Offline
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Post: #28
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
RobertN Wrote:Do you always write novels for responses?

Yeah, Dems' attention spans stop after 3 word cliches.

Quote:Anyway, obviously you make over 250,000 so I guess your taxes will probably go up. If I am not mistaken, it is a 3% increase. If you are going to not be able to afford food and necessities with a 3% increase on that 250,000, you REAALLY have a major problem with your finances.

Ok, so you DON'T make over $250k/year, but somehow you have the right to critcize someone who does?

Wouldn't it seem like he knows more than you?

This isn't about managing finances...it's about legailizng theft. I like Sproul's quote, "If you vote for a tax that you don't have to pay...you're stealing from your brother!"
11-24-2008 01:27 PM
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GGniner Offline
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Post: #29
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Jugnaut Wrote:it was really the governments own actions that have caused almost all the problems.

the Govt. caused alot of the problem, going back atleast 30 yrs and what they tried to do with Fannie/Freddie as institutions for Social Engineering, refusing to Regulate Fannie and Freddie as recently as 2005, poor Monetary Policy by the Fed under Greenspan for awhile, etc.

but also, there is some blame for Wall Street(greed, incompetence, etc.)....getting caught off guard by how the CDS contracts were playing out(which were un-regulated and new instruments)

but the one area of blame hardly anyone wants to take on is Individual Responsibility, had there been that in America then no financial Crisis regardless of what Feds and Wall Street did.

Govt. and Wall street didn't force people to Lie about their incomes to Mortgage brokers and buy too much house.....or to take out a Mortgage but then spend additional funds on other things they couldn't afford along with the Mortgages. To not plan for a possible Commodity Price increase in their budgets(Oil, food) and basically to Live beyond their means and "have it all".
Or to tune into HGTV and Covet all these nice houses and "Fixer uppers" with Granite Countertops and Stainless Steel appliances, and so on and so on.

short version: "What wrong with the world?.....Me" -G.K. Chesterton
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2008 01:40 PM by GGniner.)
11-24-2008 01:33 PM
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GGniner Offline
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Post: #30
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
also there were a fair amount of "Investors", who in reality were crooks and contributed to the Housing Bubble a great deal. I've read stories of South Florida, where a group would buy a House, get their Appraiser who was in on scam with them to then appraise the house for 100K more and then turn around and sell house to another buyer for same house a month later at new price, who then turned around and did same thing....this is why Appraisers are under alot of Scrutiny right now.


Then of course, Sopranos style HUD scams as shown in this episode which got a ring up north busted after it aired....complete with a "Community Organizer"



From comments at youtube for that Sopranos video

Quote:Obama and Alexi Giannoulias...google it.

This is the EXACT scam that Obama ran with Rezko in Chicago!!!

Unfrikinbelievable!

heh, Giannoulias and their 'family' bank in Chicago is an interesting story.
11-24-2008 01:38 PM
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RobertN Offline
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Post: #31
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
DrTorch Wrote:
RobertN Wrote:Do you always write novels for responses?

Yeah, Dems' attention spans stop after 3 word cliches.

Quote:Anyway, obviously you make over 250,000 so I guess your taxes will probably go up. If I am not mistaken, it is a 3% increase. If you are going to not be able to afford food and necessities with a 3% increase on that 250,000, you REAALLY have a major problem with your finances.

Ok, so you DON'T make over $250k/year, but somehow you have the right to critcize someone who does?

Wouldn't it seem like he knows more than you?

This isn't about managing finances...it's about legailizng theft. I like Sproul's quote, "If you vote for a tax that you don't have to pay...you're stealing from your brother!"
Because he make more money than I do he knows more than me? 03-lmfao03-lmfao That BG edumacation didn't serve you very well.
11-24-2008 02:03 PM
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uhmump95 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
GGniner Wrote:Govt. and Wall street didn't force people to Lie about their incomes to Mortgage brokers and buy too much house.....or to take out a Mortgage but then spend additional funds on other things they couldn't afford along with the Mortgages.
Yeah but the banks did not have to get rid of their income verification policies and start offering loans to anyone who could sign their name on some loan applications.

I do agree that there is plenty of blame to go around then to just blame it on the government, free market, or the people. My only problem is instead of having us take our lumps and learn from our mistakes, the government seems content on trying to perpetuate this current mess by throwing money at it.
11-24-2008 02:50 PM
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Tripster Offline
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Post: #33
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
.

RobertN ... I am sorry I write Articles instead of Sound Bites - - one of the things I have been since a child is a Writer ... be that a Writer at Heart only, but maybe I will be like Stephen King and John Grisham one day.

I "try" to explain my Words, Thoughts, and Understanding of an issue by Qualifying what I say in those Words ....

I am sorry it causes you Pain, but if you continue to read my Post, then get used to it.

And it is "NOT a Simple 3% Tax Increase" - - it is "ADDING 3% onto Rates that are nearing 50% to 75% depending on your Income Level and Circumstances.

All you see is a Little 3% Figure and you never add it to the 40% Tax Rates that already exist and understand this means that 43% of your PAYCHECK goes to Uncle Sam to line his Pockets with OFF THE TOP - - now if that isn't a Trickle, there is no such thing .... (the Dam Has Busted RobertN)

Can't you find a Better Way to Spend that 43% RobertN ... I know I surely can !!!!

Dr. Torch ... 04-rock 04-cheers

.
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2008 03:08 PM by Tripster.)
11-24-2008 03:05 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
GGniner Wrote:
Jugnaut Wrote:it was really the governments own actions that have caused almost all the problems.

the Govt. caused alot of the problem, going back atleast 30 yrs and what they tried to do with Fannie/Freddie as institutions for Social Engineering, refusing to Regulate Fannie and Freddie as recently as 2005, poor Monetary Policy by the Fed under Greenspan for awhile, etc.

but also, there is some blame for Wall Street(greed, incompetence, etc.)....getting caught off guard by how the CDS contracts were playing out(which were un-regulated and new instruments)

but the one area of blame hardly anyone wants to take on is Individual Responsibility, had there been that in America then no financial Crisis regardless of what Feds and Wall Street did.

Govt. and Wall street didn't force people to Lie about their incomes to Mortgage brokers and buy too much house.....or to take out a Mortgage but then spend additional funds on other things they couldn't afford along with the Mortgages. To not plan for a possible Commodity Price increase in their budgets(Oil, food) and basically to Live beyond their means and "have it all".
Or to tune into HGTV and Covet all these nice houses and "Fixer uppers" with Granite Countertops and Stainless Steel appliances, and so on and so on.

short version: "What wrong with the world?.....Me" -G.K. Chesterton

I don't agree with you very often, but I agree with this. Also, I think most of the companies used these new unregulated instruments for that very reason - they were unregulated. So they could do whatever they want, and now we see the results. And mortgage companies didn't do their job in determining who could afford a mortgage or not.

People have been spending like drunken sailors. Or at least, like a teenager with a new credit card that hasn't figured out that purchases have to be paid for at some point. Expensive cars, huge houses, gigantic TVs. The economy was driven by overspending, and now we are simply dropping back to a more sustainable level. Which happens to be a much lower level they we were at.
11-24-2008 03:32 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #35
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
uhmump95 Wrote:Yeah but the banks did not have to get rid of their income verification policies and start offering loans to anyone who could sign their name on some loan applications.

I do agree that there is plenty of blame to go around then to just blame it on the government, free market, or the people. My only problem is instead of having us take our lumps and learn from our mistakes, the government seems content on trying to perpetuate this current mess by throwing money at it.

This is far more complicated than I think you think it is. As I understand it, the direct influence that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have is very small, but the indirect effect that the banking regulations to support those institutions have is enormous.

Not to be a one trick pony, but I highly recommend this from the Hudson Institute: The Community Reinvestment Act and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Is There a Connection?. [transcript]

transcript Wrote:HOWARD HUSOCK: Thank you very much. The title of this discussion, which raises the question of whether there is a connection between the Community Reinvestment Act and the current crisis, is an apt one. It would be a foolish overstatement, in my view, to assert that the CRA is somehow the cause or main cause of the current crisis. Exceptionally low interest rates, high levels of available capital, and the advent of mortgage securitization combined – it’s clear in retrospect – to spur an overinvestment in housing, an underinvestment in the sort of due diligence which once typified lending. These are huge changes in the financial industry, and I think that they must be considered the key precipitants of the current situation. But as for the question of whether the CRA is at all linked to our current problems, I would answer in the affirmative.

It’s a long way from the world of the original act to the role it played in the housing crisis, but let me try to connect the dots. At the time of the passage of the CRA, as Debby (Goldberg) alluded to, the world of banking was – as Monty Python might put it – “something completely different.” Banking was largely a local industry; indeed, interstate branch banking was not permitted.

Mortgage lending, moreover, was largely the province of thrift institutions – local savings and loans – which had a kind of a deal with the government. They would pay relatively low rates of interest to their many small depositors, but they would charge relatively low rates of interest of mortgage borrowers. This limited spread strongly discouraged risk. Combined with the lack of bank competition, it undoubtedly led many neighborhoods to lack access to credit.

The term red-lining developed to describe that situation, and it led many advocates of the poor at the time – and believe it or not, I was a young left-wing journalist at the time, and if you look at the records of the Boston Pheonix newspaper you can find an article by me called “Neighborhood in the Red” describing exactly this problem – to conclude quite plausibly that only a legislative mandate could guarantee that those of modest means living in struggling urban areas could get access to credit.

Until the Clinton administration, CRA compliance was not a difficult matter. Banks could get what amounted to an “A for effort” by advertising in certain newspapers and certain neighborhoods. But the Clinton Treasury Department changed matters a good deal through 1995 regulations requiring banks that wanted “outstanding” CRA ratings to demonstrate numerically that they were lending both in poor neighborhoods and to lower-income households.

In my view, this new era of strict enforcement was a response to conditions which no longer existed. The bank deregulation of the 1980s had put us on a road to seeing sharp competition among mortgage lenders. A paper by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank entitled “Redlining or Red Herring?” published in 1999 put it this way: “The CRA may not be needed in today’s financial environment to ensure all segments of our economy enjoy access to credit.”4 Competition – market forces – had changed the landscape tremendously.

But the ramped-up enforcement of the Clinton administration had powerful effects, in no small part because banks were engaged in a frenzy of mergers and acquisitions, and in order to obtain the permission of regulators for these deals “outstanding” CRA ratings became coin of the realm.

And what’s more, nonprofit advocacy groups including the now very famous ACORN and the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, based in Boston, came forward to demand – successfully – that banks seeking regulatory approvals commit large pools of mortgage money to them, in effect outsourcing the underwriting function to groups that viewed such loans as a matter of social justice rather than due diligence. Bruce Marks, founder and still head of the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation, told me when I visited his office in Boston in 2000, “Our job is to push the envelope.” He specified that he would use his “delegated lending authority” – that’s the term – to make loans to households with limited savings, significant debt, and poor credit histories.

The sums at the disposal of his group and others were nontrivial; when NationsBank merged with Bank of America and took the name “Bank of America,” it committed $3 billion to Bruce Marks’ group. ACORN Housing received a similar $760 million from the Bank of New York. So it is that we begin to see an indirect connection between CRA and our present troubles. Quite sizeable pools of capital began to be allocated in a new way. Rather than lending on the basis of an individual household’s demonstrated ability to repay, regulators were pushing for lending to occur on the basis of other criteria. Bank examiners at the Office of Thrift Supervision began to use federal home loan date broken down by neighborhood, income, and race to rate banks on their CRA performance. This starts to stand traditional lending on its head. The key difference? In sharp contrast to the traditional regulatory emphasis on safety and soundness, banks were now
being judged not on how their loans performed, but on how many loans they made.

I spoke to a staff member at the Neighborhood Housing Services of Chicago, Michael Traynor (ph), who put it to me this way – he was a former Harris Bank vice president: “You just had to make sure you didn’t turn anyone down. If anyone applies for a loan, it’s better just to give them the money. A high denial rate is what will get you in trouble with the regulators.” And this is from a housing advocacy group in Chicago.

edit: added last paragraph, which speaks directly to the issue.
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2008 06:56 PM by I45owl.)
11-24-2008 05:59 PM
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Post: #36
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
RobertN Wrote:
smn1256 Wrote:
RobertN Wrote:
Tripster Wrote:.

FEMA ......

You guyz ought to be crap-poling in your pants at the Power this Government Organization has over this Entire Country.

THE FIRST & FOREMOST thing:

FEMA has the absolute Power to SUSPEND GOVERNMENT IN TIMES OF CRISIS.

And this is Constitutionally given to FEMA.

What does this actually mean to John Q. Public ???

FEMA can and WILL walk into the Oval Office and Suspend the President of the United States and go into the Houses of Congress and Suspend their Term(s) and SEND THEM HOME.

The President will be a Figure Head in this FEMA Government only and will Retain almost none of his Authority.

FEMA will have FULL CONTROL over, the DOD (all Military including the Joint Chiefs), the Judicial (Courts of all flavors), Executive (from the President on down), ALL Federal Law Enforcement or Agents and Agencies of the U.S. Government.

Now that is only the beginning of FEMA's Charter.

Anyone who witnessed HOW HORRIBLE FEMA's Response and Job Performance was during Katrina ..... well, all I can say to you if FEMA Takes Control of the Machine, is "Bend Over & Kiss It Good-Bye".

This is what I know about FEMA from a few years back .... I don't know if FEMA's power has been Restructured since 9/11 and 2005 or if FEMA still has the same Charter ... if FEMA does, then we will be under a FEMA Government, with no Say-So in any matters what-so-ever, under Martial Law, and no longer be Free Citizens of a Democratically Free Country.

Orwell just could not even have imagined this ...
.
Can you republicans go one day without using scare tactics to try to scare people into voting for republicans?

Why do you care? Obama is going to make us all rich and cure cancer.
Because I get tired of listening to all the rights, we are all going to die and we are going to live in a socialist country crap and unfortunately, there are MANY Americans who are just stupid/uninformed enough and actually believe it.

RN...Where have you been?....All those things already are a reality and putting a new gang member is not going to stop them. Socialism is pervasive in the US and has been for centuries. Those that don't know that are the ignorant/uninformed of our population.
11-24-2008 08:07 PM
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Post: #37
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:
Jugnaut Wrote:We're in a temporary deflationary period, but we'll soon be in an extreme inflationary period.
Here's why:
1) The U.S. has $10 Trillion in outstanding debt ($60 Trillion in actual obligations)
2) Inflation is tied to an increase in money supply.
3) Other countries (our creditors) are starting to realize we aren't good for the loans they've already given, plus they're in their own economic downturns. They will stop lending the U.S. money in the near future.
4) When lending stops we either have to drastically cut spending (which we won't) or print more money. Bernanke is known as helicopter Ben because he thinks the solution to everything is to print more money. This will cause great inflation.
5) As America has record deficits under Obama and prints insane amounts of money for Bailing out the entire economy (estimates are a $2 Trillion deficit in 09), other countries will want to unload the dollar to avoid it losing value. The dollar is the reserve currency around the world. Most central banks have large quantities of it.
6) When the central banks flood the market trying to unload the dollar, the money supply increases very dramatically. The dollar will lose about 90% of it's value. So a Big Mac meal will go from $6 to $60. This sucks for people who save their money, but it's great for government as they can basically avoid paying the full amount of their debts.
We'll experience a situation like Weimar Republic Germany in which they burned piles of money because it was cheaper than buying wood.

I'll reiterate what I'm already on record as projecting: 50 million unemployed plus 50% inflation.

If we miss those targets, I'm guessing that unemployment tops out lower (maybe 20 million, as the Obamacrats scamper to introduce make-work programs) but that inflation goes higher (100%, 200%, 1000%, infinity, you name it).

There is one wild card that I see. China decides it wants Taiwan back, and believes that it has sufficient military might to take it back (3-5 years, I'm guessing, for them to get there given their current levels of military spending). We do not want that to happen, so we put the Seventh Fleet in the way. China bites the bullet and dumps our debt on the world market. They hold enough to crater the dollar.

The longer we go without (1) saving more individually, (2) balancing the federal budget, and (3) reducing what we import as a total economy, the greater the risk of hyperinflationary depression becomes. I don't see anything in any of Obama's proposals to address any one of the three.

For the record, I didn't see anyting to address any one of the three areas in McCain's plans, except for increased domestic drilling, not in anything that Shrub has done, other than some minimal opening up of areas for drilling (that Obama apparently intends to re-shut).

+1...all good points....Obama could use you in his cabinet.
11-24-2008 08:10 PM
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Post: #38
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
EastStang Wrote:With regard to the "pretty money" argument, that is a load of what comes out of Peruna's butt. As most security experts will tell you, the changes to the money had everything to do with making it more difficult to counterfeit our currency. Not sure why they bothered with the $5 bill, but probably did so for consistency. They still haven't mastered the $1 coin either. There is a lot of pressure from vending companies, to master a $1 coin that vending machines can process.

Didn't say it was true. Just making an observation.... BTW..No one wants a damn $1 coin. We have already tried that $hit and it is a FAIL.
11-24-2008 08:16 PM
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Post: #39
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
Jugnaut Wrote:Very detailed analysis Owl! It's interesting to see how different people come to the same conclusion through different methods. I look at it through Austrian and Chicago School Economics. I hate Keynesian economics. It's just sad that most people think the free-market caused the problems when it was really the governments own actions that have caused almost all the problems.

The unintended consequences of government intervention into the free market will be the eventual demise of or nation.

The simple difference between the government and the free market is....FORCE. Government must use force to achieve its goals.....Those that operate in the free market use quality,service,innovation and price to achieve their goals...all in a VOLUNTARY system.
11-24-2008 08:28 PM
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Post: #40
RE: 2009 A Very Scary Year
RobertN Wrote:
DrTorch Wrote:
RobertN Wrote:Do you always write novels for responses?

Yeah, Dems' attention spans stop after 3 word cliches.

Quote:Anyway, obviously you make over 250,000 so I guess your taxes will probably go up. If I am not mistaken, it is a 3% increase. If you are going to not be able to afford food and necessities with a 3% increase on that 250,000, you REAALLY have a major problem with your finances.

Ok, so you DON'T make over $250k/year, but somehow you have the right to critcize someone who does?

Wouldn't it seem like he knows more than you?

This isn't about managing finances...it's about legailizng theft. I like Sproul's quote, "If you vote for a tax that you don't have to pay...you're stealing from your brother!"
Because he make more money than I do he knows more than me? 03-lmfao03-lmfao That BG edumacation didn't serve you very well.

Yep..Why would anyone want to steal from his neighbor? Taxation is a crime of violence...since it can only be accomplished with the FORCE of the state. You don't believe that...try not allowing the theft to occur and you will quickly learn just how violent and savage or government really is.
11-24-2008 08:40 PM
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