Mitt Romney, the only one that considers him the frontrunner is Mitt Romney. I get tired of him talking about "3 golds and 2 silvers". He won in Michigan (where he outspent all his competitors combined) Nevada and Wyoming. He wasn't seriously challenged in either state. He is a bigger flip-flopper than John Kerry and comes across less sincere than Hillary. In national polls he rates lower against Clinton or Obama than all major Republicans including Huckabee. Odds of wining nomination 5 to 2.

Rudy Giuliani, choose to ignore the early states, that snub will be remembered IF he wins the Republican nomination. He can make California and New York competitive against the Democrats, but turns the Red States especially in the south into battleground states. If he doesn't win in Florida, he may be finished. Odds of winning nomination 3 to 1.

Mike Huckabee, a new breed of Republican, conservative on Social Issues, moderate on Economic Issues. I think he is a candidate before his time. He is the first Republican in a long time to understand what it means to be middle class other candidates talk about it, he lives it. The loss in South Carolina set back his chances of winning the nomination seriously. He'll likely stay in through super Tuesday skimming enough of the evangelic vote from Romney to win a few delegates and help McCain win in close states. If no one has enough delegates to win the nomination look for him to deal his for the VP spot. Odds of winning nomination 4 to 1.

John McCain, has made a great comeback after early mistakes. His weakness in the primaries will be a strength in the general election if nominated. The only Republican to beat both Democrats in more than one national poll recently. Has a populous message that shares some common themes with Huckabee. Odds of winning nomination 2 to 1 appears to be the frontrunner.

Not a factor Thompson, Paul or (Hunter - recently withdrew) .

Predicted Republican ticket, McCain Huckabee although I wouldn't rule out Liberman as McCain's VP choice.

Updated with projected Odds instead of percentages for the Mathematician on the board.

I could vote for a McCain Lieberman ticket. I would worry about them starting a war with Iran, but on alot of other issue I'm almost lock step with Lieberman. I think it says alot about the current state of affairs in the Republican party that the only chance they have in the general is with a RINO and the 2000 Dem v.p. candidate. The ONLY thing Lieberman has is the war issue for R's and I think that is what is really tearing the party down. It's at war with itself.

On a side note. I still can't believe Thompson didn't get more traction. He was the one I truly feared and I'm glad he didn't win S.C. I really thought he could bring the party together. I know Rush was really pushing for him. It kind of tickles me McCain might get it. What will right wing radio do then. You know the agents of intolerance. You have to admit, Democrats favorite Republican is probably McCain. To be honest, Romney doesn't bother me either. He's been successful. He comes off as very intelligent. It sure in the hell would be better than these last 7 years.

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:Predicted Republican ticket, McCain Huckabee although I wouldn't rule out Liberman as McCain's VP choice.

If McCain wins neither ticket would happen. McCain has to pick a real conservative to be on the ticket. Neither Lieberman or Huckabee are real conservatives.

You put two moderate/liberal politicians on a the republican ticket you'll see a 45 state landslide for the democrats.

That's just it about McCain though. He seems to enjoy sticking it to conservatives. That's at least what I see. I definetly could see him pairing up with Lieberman. That would have a ton of cross over appeal. Don't kid yourself. A conservative would do anything to keep Billary out of the White House. The Clinton's are alienating alot of their base on how they are going after Obama. McCain Lieberman is a winning ticket.

Machiavelli Wrote:That's just it about McCain though. He seems to enjoy sticking it to conservatives. That's at least what I see. I definetly could see him pairing up with Lieberman. That would have a ton of cross over appeal. Don't kid yourself. A conservative would do anything to keep Billary out of the White House. The Clinton's are alienating alot of their base on how they are going after Obama. McCain Lieberman is a winning ticket.

McCain can't win without conservatives. And if it's a McCain - Lieberman/Huckabee ticket they will not get the conservative vote.

And such a ticket is no different than any combo the dems would put up. If the public has a choice of exactly the same ticket with the only difference being an R or a D, they'll vote for the D because of the current climate.

Who is the conservative candidate? Thompson? Coulter seems to like Romney. Well let's analyze shall we.

Who doesn't believe in evolution. Doesn't think twenty years down the road. Who wears blinders and ears don't seem to work? Help me Niner.

Machiavelli Wrote:Who is the conservative candidate? Thompson? Coulter seems to like Romney. Well let's analyze shall we.

I'd say Thompson is about as close as we've got. Other than Thompson, I don't see a real conservative out there.

Quote:Who doesn't believe in evolution. Doesn't think twenty years down the road. Who wears blinders and ears don't seem to work? Help me Niner.

I really have no idea what you're talking about.

If it's Clinton vs Huckabee ...... Bloomberg will run ... and he just might win.

Machiavelli Wrote:I could vote for a McCain Lieberman ticket. I would worry about them starting a war with Iran, but on alot of other issue I'm almost lock step with Lieberman. I think it says alot about the current state of affairs in the Republican party that the only chance they have in the general is with a RINO and the 2000 Dem v.p. candidate. The ONLY thing Lieberman has is the war issue for R's and I think that is what is really tearing the party down. It's at war with itself.

On a side note. I still can't believe Thompson didn't get more traction. He was the one I truly feared and I'm glad he didn't win S.C. I really thought he could bring the party together. I know Rush was really pushing for him. It kind of tickles me McCain might get it. What will right wing radio do then. You know the agents of intolerance. You have to admit, Democrats favorite Republican is probably McCain. To be honest, Romney doesn't bother me either. He's been successful. He comes off as very intelligent. It sure in the hell would be better than these last 7 years.

Thompson was my original first choice when he entered the race. I got frustrated with him when he announced he was running then did nothing to carry that momentum into a strong frontrunner position. Honestly I have gotten a little more liberal on the economic/domestic front. I like Obama's plan for Social Security having an exempt range then restarting around $200k. I actually doesn't think it goes far enough, I think the first 10 - 20K of earnings should be exempt from Social Security tax and everything over that is taxed. That would help with the solvency issue. On healthcare, I think more employers need to be required to provide group coverage rates to employees, not paid insurance, but discounted at group rates.

Ninerfan1 Wrote:

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:Predicted Republican ticket, McCain Huckabee although I wouldn't rule out Liberman as McCain's VP choice.

If McCain wins neither ticket would happen. McCain has to pick a real conservative to be on the ticket. Neither Lieberman or Huckabee are real conservatives.

You put two moderate/liberal politicians on a the republican ticket you'll see a 45 state landslide for the democrats.

The one wildcard that has been mentioned as a Republican VP is Schwarzenegger. He could never be President, but nothing legally keeping him from VP. Not exactly a conservative, but the last time we had a Republican governor from California on the ticket it worked out ok.

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:

Ninerfan1 Wrote:

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:Predicted Republican ticket, McCain Huckabee although I wouldn't rule out Liberman as McCain's VP choice.

If McCain wins neither ticket would happen. McCain has to pick a real conservative to be on the ticket. Neither Lieberman or Huckabee are real conservatives.

You put two moderate/liberal politicians on a the republican ticket you'll see a 45 state landslide for the democrats.

The one wildcard that has been mentioned as a Republican VP is Schwarzenegger. He could never be President, but nothing legally keeping him from VP. Not exactly a conservative, but the last time we had a Republican governor from California on the ticket it worked out ok.

I don't think constitutionally he can be VP. At least I think someone would challenge his selection in court.

The VP is next in line to be president should something happen. Since the president must be American born it could be easily argued the spirit of the Constitution is that the VP be able to step into the office.

But I'm not a Constitutional scholar so who knows.

Ninerfan1 Wrote:

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:

Ninerfan1 Wrote:

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:Predicted Republican ticket, McCain Huckabee although I wouldn't rule out Liberman as McCain's VP choice.

If McCain wins neither ticket would happen. McCain has to pick a real conservative to be on the ticket. Neither Lieberman or Huckabee are real conservatives.

You put two moderate/liberal politicians on a the republican ticket you'll see a 45 state landslide for the democrats.

The one wildcard that has been mentioned as a Republican VP is Schwarzenegger. He could never be President, but nothing legally keeping him from VP. Not exactly a conservative, but the last time we had a Republican governor from California on the ticket it worked out ok.

I don't think constitutionally he can be VP. At least I think someone would challenge his selection in court.

The VP is next in line to be president should something happen. Since the president must be American born it could be easily argued the spirit of the Constitution is that the VP be able to step into the office.

But I'm not a Constitutional scholar so who knows.

No...just like Bill Clinton cant be VP...You have to be eligible to be president...AS in not a natural born citizen...cant be president..cant be VP.

It really doesnt make a fat damn...which one of these jokers is president..You will still be at the mercy of thier statist mentality..You will continue to have your wages stolen from you...You will still have your liberty chipped away day by day....You will still have the US seen worldwide as imperialist....You will still spend a worthless fiat currency...You will NOT see any CHANGE!!!

A VOTE FOR ANY OF THE MAINSTREAM IS A VOTE FOR THE STATUS QUO:muttering:

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:Mitt Romney, the only one that considers him the frontrunner is Mitt Romney. I get tired of him talking about "3 golds and 2 silvers". He won in Michigan (where he outspent all his competitors combined) Nevada and Wyoming. He wasn't seriously challenged in either state. He is a bigger flip-flopper than John Kerry and comes across less sincere than Hillary. In national polls he rates lower against Clinton or Obama than all major Republicans including Huckabee. Chance of wining nomination 40%.

Rudy Giuliani, choose to ignore the early states, that snub will be remembered IF he wins the Republican nomination. He can make California and New York competitive against the Democrats, but turns the Red States especially in the south into battleground states. If he doesn't win in Florida, he may be finished. Chance of winning nomination 30%

Mike Huckabee, a new breed of Republican, conservative on Social Issues, moderate on Economic Issues. I think he is a candidate before his time. He is the first Republican in a long time to understand what it means to be middle class other candidates talk about it, he lives it. The loss in South Carolina set back his chances of winning the nomination seriously. He'll likely stay in through super Tuesday skimming enough of the evangelic vote from Romney to win a few delegates and help McCain win in close states. If no one has enough delegates to win the nomination look for him to deal his for the VP spot. Chances of winning nomination 20%.

John McCain, has made a great comeback after early mistakes. His weakness in the primaries will be a strength in the general election if nominated. The only Republican to beat both Democrats in more than one national poll recently. Has a populous message that shares some common themes with Huckabee. Chances of winning nomination 50/50 appears to be the frontrunner.

So, if I do the arithmetic right, one of these four gentlemen has a 140% chance of winning the nomination....

Quote:Not a factor Thompson, Paul or Hunter.

Especially since Hunter just dropped out of the race.

Quote:Predicted Republican ticket, McCain Huckabee although I wouldn't rule out Liberman as McCain's VP choice.

If McCain wins the nomination, it'll be Thompson.

Jonathan Sadow Wrote:So, if I do the arithmetic right, one of these four gentlemen has a 140% chance of winning the nomination....

Quote:Not a factor Thompson, Paul or Hunter.

Especially since Hunter just dropped out of the race.

Quote:Predicted Republican ticket, McCain Huckabee although I wouldn't rule out Liberman as McCain's VP choice.

If McCain wins the nomination, it'll be Thompson.

Ok it's now updated with odds like a horse race they should not sum to 100%. As you noted Hunter JUST dropped out of the race, that had not been announced when I posted. I included all candidates on the SC ballot since some folks are sensitive to their candidate being excluded altogether, but I could have just as easily not mentioned Thompson, Paul, or Hunter.

Thompson has no interest in the public life of a politician, that is why he left the Senate and why he ran a half-hearted Presidential campaign. He was talked into getting in the race and it showed. He will not accept the VP nomination because he isn't interested.

So let me get this straight. Guiliani gets included in your analysis, even though he has only beat Ron Paul in one race so far. Ron Paul was 2nd in Nevada. Guiliani was last. I'm sorry, but the ghoul has 0 chance.

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:Rudy Giuliani, choose to ignore the early states, that snub will be remembered IF he wins the Republican nomination. He can make California and New York competitive against the Democrats, but turns the Red States especially in the south into battleground states. If he doesn't win in Florida, he may be finished. Odds of winning nomination 3 to 1.

Rudy is either going to go down as running one of the worst or dumbest strategic campaigns ever, or look like a genius if he wins Fl and then does well on Super Tuesday.

the funny thing about McCain is he has a 100% pro-life voting record. its things like Tax cuts and some other issues where he pisses off conservatives and his general rhetoric. its really part of his game though, to be a 'maverick' and have broad appeal.

I think the Repub. choices are better and more conservative than they get credit for, which isn't saying much. they are being judged under a microscope and people are ignoring the realities of actually governing.

It's a cycle though, historically no party in modern times has held the Whitehouse for more than 3 terms in a row(reagan/bush). Its what happens when you have power and get negative press and posturing from your opponents for years. In the BDS climate we have, guys like McCain the "maverick" and Huckabee the charismatic, are appealing.

my guess for possible VP nominees:

JC Watts
Fred Thompson
Newt Gingrich, maybe, he keeps saying nice things about all the candidates. like he's playing for it.
Michael Steele


if bloomberg runs, he'd probably hurt the Dems more than the reps. He was/is a liberal democrat and changed to R party to ride Rudy's coat tails when he ran for mayor.

I think Thompson may be done at this point. Guiliani is half banking on some bump from Florida, but he still has winner take all New York the following week on Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday is going to be either the big break for someone, or will keep things muddled. There are three southern primaries, Ark., Ala., Ga. plus Tennessee which could play in Huckabee's favor. Arizona has a primary which helps McCain. UT, ID and MA have primaries which favor Romney. The battlegrounds will be in IL, NJ and California. My guess is that Romney, McCain and Giuliani will be heavily invested in these states with Huckabee focusing his efforts on the South and to some extent southern Ill. and perhaps Alaska and Montana. Unless one candidate sweeps, each candidate will have some victories on Super Tuesday to tout and the process will continue. If it gets to a convention (which is late this year, September), it will be real interesting. Who will make a deal and settle for VP?

Ninerfan1 Wrote:I'd say Thompson is about as close as we've got. Other than Thompson, I don't see a real conservative out there.

AMEN....

That's why I have a "Draft Dick Cheney 2008" bumper sticker on my SUV.

Watching The Huckster, Slick Willy, and Obama, all pander to the civil rights liberals today at the Ebenezer Baptist Chuich made me sick. This annual rite is NOT a "Memorial Service" to MLK--it is a purely liberal political event. Just like the Wellstone funeral/Democrat Pep Rally.

I can see Slick Willy and Obama debating at the "Memorial Service" especially after Atlanta's criminal "Mayor" Shirley Franklin endorsed Obama from the pulpit, but when the Huckster showed up I lost the little respect I had for him.

Being from Texas I CANNOT support McCain under any circumstances - the "Amigo" of Illegal Aliens.

If it is Hillary vs. McCain in the general election, WTF is the difference?

Too bad there isn't a "NONE OF THE ABOVE" or "Uncommitted" on the Georgia Republican Primary Ballot.

However, it if keeps breaking down 20 something percent each for Romney, McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee, then someone may make a serious move for core Conservative support.

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:I included all candidates on the SC ballot

Not even close.
- Hugh Cort
- John Cox
- Cap Fendig
- Tom Tancredo