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Re: Expansion Question
MU42 Wrote:Since my C-USA pals don't want to talk about expansion anymore, and I hate the MWC and MAC fans, I figured that I would try to make some new friends with the WAC.
When I read the MWC boards all they talk about is taking Fresno, Boise St., and UTEP to create their BCS ready conference. But I feel that in a few years that all of the BCS conferences are going to go 12 teams. This means that the Big East adds 4, the PAC 10 adds 2, and the Big 10 adds 1. The question is, who fills those 7 spots and then what does the WAC, MWC, and C-USA do (assuming that all 7 teams are taken from these 3 conferences.
Here is what I think:
The Big East adds:
UCF
ECU
Navy
Memphis (My school, Marshall, would be considered in Memphis' place because of geography, but Memphis will win out)
Marshall is added only if WVU or Pitt go to Big 10
The PAC 10 adds:
Utah
Fresno St.
The Big 10 adds:
Here is were it gets tricky, because we all know that they want Notre Dame, and we also know that as long as NBC is paying the big bucks that ND isn't going anywhere.
Do they stay in Big 10 territory or go outside of it?
I think that they will fill the last spot by stealing from the Big East or Big 12. They would either take Pitt or WVU from the BE or take Iowa St. from the Big 12.
If neither of these choices work then they would have to go after Navy before the Big East got them, or take a MAC school, and none of them are ready to jump to a mid-major much less a BCS conference. (sorry had to take a shot at the former mates)
The Big 12 adds:(If the Big 10 some how steal away Iowa St.)
TCU
So if worst comes to worst then
C-USA will lose at least 3 but up to 4
WAC will lose at least 1
MWC will lose at least 2
So now the C-USA needs at least 3 teams to get a C-USA championship game back.
C-USA will add: (along with UTEP, SMU, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, Houston, UAB, USM, and Marshall)
Louisiana Tech
Miami (OH)
Toledo
Now the WAC needs 2 and MWC needs 2 and the MAC just need 1 to get back to 12(Because of the additition of Temple this year the MAC has 13). This is where the WAC overtakes the MWC as the best non-BCS conference in the west.
The WAC will add:
UNLV
North Texas
Colorado St.
Now the MWC needs at least 4.
MWC adds:
Arkansas St.
UL-Monroe
UL-Lafayette
Troy
The MAC adds:
Army
This is my prediction of the not to distant future. I have accepted the fact that I have no life during the summer, and NEED more than anything for college football to come back in to my life ASAP. Hope you have an opinion my prediction, so that I will have a sense of accomplishment. One last thing, GO HERD!!!
This is highly unlikely on a number of levels. Aside from the comments that others have made, here are my thoughts:
First, I keep hearing over and over again that all the BCS conferences will expand to 12 teams, and I don't understand the logic behind this assertion. Given that the BCS system was created in order to ensure that the current BCS members receive a disproportionate share of the revenue in college football, they have zero incentive to expand further. There is no reason that the BCS conferences would suddenly decide to expand to 12 teams. (As erda pointed out, the PAC-10 would probably leave the BCS under this scenario.)
A football championship game would not be sufficient to motivate the BCS conferences to expand, incidentally. The last I read, the SEC is the only conference that makes enough from its football championship game to justify expanding to 12 teams. The Big 12 and the ACC don't earn enough revenue from their championship games to offset the costs of having to share their revenue with another school. And if a conference like the Big 12 isn't earning a huge payday from its championship game, I strongly doubt that the PAC-10 or the Big East would do much better.
Regarding the specific scenarios that you suggested, I can probably assure you that the PAC-10 will never add Fresno State. Again, no offense to any Fresno fans, but the PAC-10 takes pride in the fact that all of its member institutions are strong research schools. I can't imagine that Stanford or Cal or UCLA would agree to add a CSU school to the PAC-10. If the PAC-10 were forced to expand, I agree that Utah would probably be on the short list, but I think they would try to get Texas or Colorado long before they would invite Utah.
Similarly, the Big 10 takes a great deal of pride in being the top academic conference in the country (other than maybe the Ivy League), and they aren't going to add anyone that would hurt that reputation. Frankly, I doubt they will ever add anyone as long as there is a chance that they could get Notre Dame. If they did, however, you can just about rest assured that it won't be West Virginia or Iowa State. The only viable expansion candidates that fit the Big 10's academic profile that I can think of are Rutgers and possibly Pitt. If those are the best options available, I think the Big 10 probably doesn't expand.
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