(03-29-2017 09:31 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  

(03-29-2017 06:37 AM)Topkat Wrote:  

(03-27-2017 09:00 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  So the string will continue : Since Kenpom started in 01-02 no team has won the title with an adjD above 25. Gonzaga--1, S.C.--2, N.C.--18 and Oregon--19.

I was heartened to see UC's offensive play this year. Hopefully we continue to iron things out and continue the improvement.

I would doubt the teams in the Final 4, combined, had as many sub 60-point scoring games as the Bearcats did this year, so there is work still to be done... I hope most notably in consistent tempo.

Go Cats.

Let's test that theory...

Cincinnati:

W 55-54 @ Iowa State
W 56-50 @ Temple
W 55-46 @ East Carolina
W 57-55 @ Tulsa
L 51-60 @ SMU
L 49-53 @ UCF
L 56-71 vs. SMU (neutral site)

Gonzaga:

0 games under 60

North Carolina:

L 43-53 @ Virginia

Oregon:

L 49-66 @ Baylor

South Carolina:

L 54-70 @ Memphis
W 57-53 vs. Florida
L 53-64 vs. Alabama (neutral site)

And your theory, not surprisingly, is 100% correct. Cincinnati had 7 games under 60, all 4 teams remaining in the tournament combined for 5.

The offense has come a long way, but we still disappear for long stretches away from home. That makes it very tough to make deep runs in March. Maybe that doesn't apply to the UCLA match-up, but even if we pulled that one out or had a more favorable match-up, it still would have come back to bite us at some point.

I agree that offense disappearing makes it hard to make runs, but I'd like to see a Points Per Possession breakdown. South Carolina is 104 in kenpom adjust offense, UC is 35. I would imagine South Carolina had more offensive stinkers than UC, but they played at a faster tempo so would have scored more points in those.

UC's offensive performance was good enough to make a run this year, though not quite at the level of the teams that tend to make runs. Most teams that go deep are top 20-25 in both adj offense and adj defense. South Carolina managed it with an elite defense and a pretty bad offense (relative to the rest of the field).