(03-27-2014 02:28 PM)Tiguar Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 10:02 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 09:44 AM)Tiguar Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 09:29 AM)FloridaJag Wrote:  From my perspective, I think Ark State and ULL are the glue/cement that is keeping the conference together. Actually, I think they drive the bus right now.

A ludicrous assertion. What keeps the conference together is "We really want FBS football"

If all this talk about realignment has illuminated anything for me, it's that the Sun Belt will never be in risk of ceasing to exist(with the exception of a possible merger at some point with someone) because there is no shortage of schools looking to keep/move up to FBS

I'm sure the same was said of the WAC at one point in the not so distant past. I don't think the SBC ceasing to exist is as far fetched as you imagine.

I doubt it happens, but things could look very different if another round of realignment starts at the top.

A little late reply, but the situations are not equivalent and cannot be viewed as such. The WAC lost schools because they had places to go. Play off money is capped and I highly doubt we will see the G5 conferences expand very far beyond 12. WAC died because schools had places to go and options for back-fill either went elsewhere, or were not interested.

Liberty, JMU, MSU, UMass possible schools for SOMEONE. If they aren't taken by the SBC, then the SBC also doesn't LOSE schools. If we do lose schools, then these schools aren't taken. You also have to take into account other possibilities that become an option as opposition to their addition gets called up. Lamar, SHSU, Jackson St, have opposition but if their opposition moves on, they can be discussed.

I'm not concerned now like I was a year ago.

The CFP changes the equation.

We can go to 12 at essentially zero cost and almost certainly come out ahead financially.

With our pittance of TV money if we were to add two all-sport football members after 12, they have to bring at least $2.4 million or $1.2 million each to the table to be revenue neutral. Putting us in exactly the same place we are at 12.

The AAC is the Holy Grail of G5 in the populated part of the United States and the reality is there are members of AAC that wouldn't increase our revenue by $1.2 million because their primary value was in being acceptable candidates to get to 12.

I don't think there is any pair in CUSA that would be a lock to bring in a combined $2.4 million in new revenue.

If CFP issues a strong indication that they won't accept a new conference as a signatory to the contract that in itself becomes a deterrent to someone doing a MWC to their current conference.

It is entirely possible we may have extended period of still waters until the CFP is expiring unless someone does what has never been done... negotiate a peaceful inter-conference realignment.