(02-17-2015 10:31 PM)rallen Wrote:  

(02-17-2015 09:40 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(02-17-2015 10:14 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

ESPN Bubble Watch - 2/17/15

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: SMU
Work left to do: Temple, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Well, so much for Connecticut. If you were searching for positive signs that the disappointing defending national champion was about to embark on the mother of all late runs, you got a few last week, when Kevin Ollie's smaller lineup pounded Tulsa 70-45. It was UConn's third win in a row. A high-profile, prime-time win at SMU on Saturday would have gotten the Huskies to 15-9 with a big boost to their RPI, making them an outfit worth watching the rest of the way. Instead, Ryan Boatright & Co. were blown out. It's looking like auto-bid or bust for the reigning champs.

SMU [21-5 (12-2), RPI: 21, SOS: 65] On paper, the Mustangs' plastering of Connecticut on Saturday night doesn't do a whole lot to buttress their resume. The Huskies are, after all, a ways off from a top-50 RPI, and margin of victory doesn't matter. In reality, SMU should be in the tournament at this point, and its position in this edition of Bubble Watch has changed accordingly. We're close to a lock, too. Were SMU to lose out (including the first round of the American tournament, with current RPI numbers considered) it would end up 21-10 overall with maybe one sub-100 loss, just two top-50 wins (at Temple, at Tulsa) and a 7-9 record against the top 100. That's pretty decent shape for a bubble team, but hardly a guarantee, so no lock just yet. SMU may not be a high seed, but where selection is concerned, it's in great shape.

Temple [19-7 (10-3), RPI: 33, SOS: 61] The Owls followed up a nice win over Cincinnati last week with a businesslike performance at home versus East Carolina, their seventh win in a row. As ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi noted on Twitter late last week, Fran Dunphy's team is undefeated with its full lineup intact. The injuries have come in fits and spurts, but they have coincided with most of Temple's losses, and that in itself constitutes a major opportunity: If the Owls can spend the next three weeks showing off how good they are at full strength, the committee will have to evaluate them on that basis, and less on how they looked when banged up. They're off to a good start already.

Cincinnati [17-8 (8-5), RPI: 39, SOS: 46] There was good news and bad news for the Bearcats on Saturday. NC State's win at Louisville helped to make Cincinnati's profile look marginally better, which is good. The Bearcats lost at home to Tulane and its 150s-ish RPI, which is, as you know, bad. The latter outweighs the former by a lot, tossing another questionable defeat on the page not far from an ugly loss at East Carolina on Feb. 1. Even so, Cincinnati still looks better than your run-of-the-mill bubble team, what with its sweep of SMU, its top-25 nonconference schedule and (for now) its 5-3 top-50 record. This week, Cincy resumes its crosstown rivalry with Xavier -- a chance to pick up a quality nonconference win -- before Saturday's bad-loss risk of a trip to Houston.

Tulsa [17-7 (10-2), RPI: 49, SOS: 123] Last week, we mentioned that the current state of the American Conference is such that Tulsa could begin conference play 10-1 without notching any win better than a road victory at Temple, or creating the kind of resume you might typically associate with any team that starts the season 10-1 in its own league. Now, after back-to-back losses to SMU and UConn, and with a 3-5 record against top-100 teams, you couldn't blame the committee for wondering just how good the Golden Hurricane really are. Tulsa was already closer to the First Four/cut line mix than either SMU or Cincy. Any more slips and it will only get closer.

Everything in this entire post is one big gigantic pile of monkey crap!! The only "projection" I care about comes out on 3/15. If UCONN isn't in the tournament on that date, sure I'll be disappointed, but I won't lose my sh*t over some 2-bit projection from a bunch of hacks!!

Don't see how it's a pile of monkey crap. Outside of winning the conference championship, these are the four teams with a realistic chance of dancing come March. SMU is playing great and should likely be in. The other three if they take care of business they're in good shape, and if they stumble badly could be in trouble. As far as UCONN goes it wasn't our year, unless we win the AAC tournamnet. Too many bad loses and not enough good wins. The ESPN article seems pretty on target to me.

The only "projection" that carries ANY weight, IMO, is the one on 3/15. Everything else is just one gigantic steaming pile of monkey crap from hacks who don't have the slightest clue what the selection committee is going to do. Sure they can make an educated guess, but at the end of the day it's just that.....a guess. Thus you get the big gigantic steaming pile of monkey crap I've been talking about.