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Analyzing the Republican race
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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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Analyzing the Republican race
Mitt Romney, the only one that considers him the frontrunner is Mitt Romney. I get tired of him talking about "3 golds and 2 silvers". He won in Michigan (where he outspent all his competitors combined) Nevada and Wyoming. He wasn't seriously challenged in either state. He is a bigger flip-flopper than John Kerry and comes across less sincere than Hillary. In national polls he rates lower against Clinton or Obama than all major Republicans including Huckabee. Odds of wining nomination 5 to 2.

Rudy Giuliani, choose to ignore the early states, that snub will be remembered IF he wins the Republican nomination. He can make California and New York competitive against the Democrats, but turns the Red States especially in the south into battleground states. If he doesn't win in Florida, he may be finished. Odds of winning nomination 3 to 1.

Mike Huckabee, a new breed of Republican, conservative on Social Issues, moderate on Economic Issues. I think he is a candidate before his time. He is the first Republican in a long time to understand what it means to be middle class other candidates talk about it, he lives it. The loss in South Carolina set back his chances of winning the nomination seriously. He'll likely stay in through super Tuesday skimming enough of the evangelic vote from Romney to win a few delegates and help McCain win in close states. If no one has enough delegates to win the nomination look for him to deal his for the VP spot. Odds of winning nomination 4 to 1.

John McCain, has made a great comeback after early mistakes. His weakness in the primaries will be a strength in the general election if nominated. The only Republican to beat both Democrats in more than one national poll recently. Has a populous message that shares some common themes with Huckabee. Odds of winning nomination 2 to 1 appears to be the frontrunner.

Not a factor Thompson, Paul or (Hunter - recently withdrew) .

Predicted Republican ticket, McCain Huckabee although I wouldn't rule out Liberman as McCain's VP choice.

Updated with projected Odds instead of percentages for the Mathematician on the board. 03-wink
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2008 08:47 AM by THE NC Herd Fan.)
01-20-2008 02:46 PM
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Analyzing the Republican race - THE NC Herd Fan - 01-20-2008 02:46 PM
RE: Analyzing the Republican race - NIU007 - 01-22-2008, 03:51 PM



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