RE: Shocked the Brando interview isn't here
Of course Notre Dame has discussed it. Do people think they're just winging it?
I have no doubt that Notre Dame knows exactly what the scenario is, and how they will respond. Their number one goal is to retain football quasi-independence as long as they can. I am sure they have established the exact circumstances that effect what they do. There's nothing the ACC can do, nor should do, to make it happen.
The only important factor to understand is the Notre Dame has said (and have shown this over the previous couple decades) that they will not prioritize independence over relevance...ie they will not go the way of the service academies or Ivy League to maintain independence.
So it's very simple...Notre Dame will give up independence when they have to in order to remain competitive. That's it. Whether you think they will join or not, really has nothing to do with how they feel about independence, what their tradition means to them, or what NBC does, or what the ACC does. As long as they have a route to the playoffs, and can continue to recruit, as an independent, they will stay independent-ish.
I do believe they will join a conference eventually, because I think eventually they will be marginalized if they don't. That's not the scenario today, so there won't be any announcements tomorrow. Whether that is 5 years from now, or 25 years from now, I really have no idea. It's 100% out of the ACC's control, so it's hardly worth talking about as much as we do.
The main thing to watch is if OU and TX leave the Big 12 and that blows up. That's the only "imminent" thing that I think could possibly change ND's status in the next 5-10 years. If we end up with four major conferences, then I think that will do it. Even if the playoffs don't go to a 100% automatic conference champion auto-bid (and I don't think they will), that will be the defacto effect. It will take an especially weak conference champion (3+ loss PAC or ACC champ) to be left out, and even if so, ND will be in competition with an at large from another conference. The default position will be the four champions.
I think in that case, ND joins. In a four-conference world, ND in the ACC could lose 2 regular season games and easily make the playoffs. In that same world, as an independent, they would have little chance to make the playoffs with anything less than an undefeated season. I don't think that will be a tolerable situation, and I think that would prompt a change.
Short of Big 12 implosion, I don't really see anything on the horizon that changes things for ND in the next ten years or so. As long as there are five conferences competing for four spots, they don't have that much trouble inserting themselves into the conversation as well.
(This post was last modified: 05-15-2017 09:32 AM by Lou_C.)
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