(01-22-2018 07:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I'm trying to rationalize why the Southland added Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist, Abilene Christian, Oral Roberts, and New Orleans when they did.

At that point they had 9 schools and 8 played football. They could have stayed pat or added just 1 additional member to stabilize but instead they are way overexpanded.

Think about where they could be if they'd let the WAC assume the risk of adding those programs. The WAC would be stable and the football programs among them could be Southland affiliates.

(01-22-2018 08:14 PM)NoDak Wrote:  The Southland is leary of Lamar, Sam Houston St, and Stephen F Austin leaving for FBS. It had to protect the football side if that happened.

(01-22-2018 08:25 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 07:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I'm trying to rationalize why the Southland added Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist, Abilene Christian, Oral Roberts, and New Orleans when they did.

At that point they had 9 schools and 8 played football. They could have stayed pat or added just 1 additional member to stabilize but instead they are way overexpanded.

Think about where they could be if they'd let the WAC assume the risk of adding those programs. The WAC would be stable and the football programs among them could be Southland affiliates.

There might be an opportunity for a do-over, but finding homes for Seattle, Utah Valley, Grand Canyon, and now Cal Baptist might be difficult:

WAC - NMSU, ACU, UTRGV, TAMUCC, UIW, HBU, SHSU
SLC - Lamar, SFA, UCA, UNO, McNeese State, Nicholas State, Northwestern State, SELA

If UT Arlington and/or Little Rock could be lured to the Southland, this would allow the WAC to square up at eight members.

(01-22-2018 08:25 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 07:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I'm trying to rationalize why the Southland added Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist, Abilene Christian, Oral Roberts, and New Orleans when they did.

At that point they had 9 schools and 8 played football. They could have stayed pat or added just 1 additional member to stabilize but instead they are way overexpanded.

Think about where they could be if they'd let the WAC assume the risk of adding those programs. The WAC would be stable and the football programs among them could be Southland affiliates.

There might be an opportunity for a do-over, but finding homes for Seattle, Utah Valley, Grand Canyon, and now Cal Baptist might be difficult:

WAC - NMSU, ACU, UTRGV, TAMUCC, UIW, HBU, SHSU
SLC - Lamar, SFA, UCA, UNO, McNeese State, Nicholas State, Northwestern State, SELA

If UT Arlington and/or Little Rock could be lured to the Southland, this would allow the WAC to square up at eight members.

(01-22-2018 08:30 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:25 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 07:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I'm trying to rationalize why the Southland added Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist, Abilene Christian, Oral Roberts, and New Orleans when they did.

At that point they had 9 schools and 8 played football. They could have stayed pat or added just 1 additional member to stabilize but instead they are way overexpanded.

Think about where they could be if they'd let the WAC assume the risk of adding those programs. The WAC would be stable and the football programs among them could be Southland affiliates.

There might be an opportunity for a do-over, but finding homes for Seattle, Utah Valley, Grand Canyon, and now Cal Baptist might be difficult:

WAC - NMSU, ACU, UTRGV, TAMUCC, UIW, HBU, SHSU
SLC - Lamar, SFA, UCA, UNO, McNeese State, Nicholas State, Northwestern State, SELA

If UT Arlington and/or Little Rock could be lured to the Southland, this would allow the WAC to square up at eight members.

Do UTA and UALR get a share of the CFP payout as part of the SBC? If so (and even if not), I don't see how the Southland could "lure" them away.

(01-22-2018 08:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Looking back I'm really shocked that when the WAC essentially did an open casting call for anyone West of the Mississippi interested in FBS football UTSA and Texas St was all they could muster. It would have probably taken at least 5 more to ultimately save WAC football.

(01-22-2018 08:35 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Looking back I'm really shocked that when the WAC essentially did an open casting call for anyone West of the Mississippi interested in FBS football UTSA and Texas St was all they could muster. It would have probably taken at least 5 more to ultimately save WAC football.

What really did the WAC in was the requirement for 12 teams to have a championship game. Had the Mountain West held at 10, this looks like a very different group to rebuild from:

Utah State
Idaho
San Jose State
New Mexico State

That’s to say nothing of Texas State and UTSA staying put in the WAC thanks to C-USA adding UTSA and WKU.

(01-22-2018 08:14 PM)NoDak Wrote:  The Southland is leary of Lamar, Sam Houston St, and Stephen F Austin leaving for FBS. It had to protect the football side if that happened.

(01-22-2018 08:46 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:35 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Looking back I'm really shocked that when the WAC essentially did an open casting call for anyone West of the Mississippi interested in FBS football UTSA and Texas St was all they could muster. It would have probably taken at least 5 more to ultimately save WAC football.

What really did the WAC in was the requirement for 12 teams to have a championship game. Had the Mountain West held at 10, this looks like a very different group to rebuild from:

Utah State
Idaho
San Jose State
New Mexico State

That’s to say nothing of Texas State and UTSA staying put in the WAC thanks to C-USA adding UTSA and WKU.

Great point. If the "Big 12" rule been in place my guess is that C-USA would have about 10 members which means probably 4 schools currently in C-USA or SBC would not be in either league. Coastal Carolina is a given. It also probably means App St and Georgia Southern stay in FCS too.

If the American had the option to play a conference title with 10 schools Tulsa and either ECU or Tulane also find them back in C-USA.

UTSA probably still ends up moving out of the WAC but maybe they hang onto Texas St and non-FB UTA.

(01-22-2018 08:14 PM)NoDak Wrote:  The Southland is leary of Lamar, Sam Houston St, and Stephen F Austin leaving for FBS. It had to protect the football side if that happened.

(01-22-2018 09:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:14 PM)NoDak Wrote:  The Southland is leary of Lamar, Sam Houston St, and Stephen F Austin leaving for FBS. It had to protect the football side if that happened.

I just don’t see any of those having the support base necessary for FBS.

(01-22-2018 09:27 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:46 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:35 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Looking back I'm really shocked that when the WAC essentially did an open casting call for anyone West of the Mississippi interested in FBS football UTSA and Texas St was all they could muster. It would have probably taken at least 5 more to ultimately save WAC football.

What really did the WAC in was the requirement for 12 teams to have a championship game. Had the Mountain West held at 10, this looks like a very different group to rebuild from:

Utah State
Idaho
San Jose State
New Mexico State

That’s to say nothing of Texas State and UTSA staying put in the WAC thanks to C-USA adding UTSA and WKU.

Great point. If the "Big 12" rule been in place my guess is that C-USA would have about 10 members which means probably 4 schools currently in C-USA or SBC would not be in either league. Coastal Carolina is a given. It also probably means App St and Georgia Southern stay in FCS too.

If the American had the option to play a conference title with 10 schools Tulsa and either ECU or Tulane also find them back in C-USA.

UTSA probably still ends up moving out of the WAC but maybe they hang onto Texas St and non-FB UTA.

If you go by the last moves announced:

American: -Tulsa, -East Carolina (originally announced as football only to the hen-Big East)
CUSA: +Tulsa, +East Carolina, -WKU, -MTSU, -FAU, -Charlotte, -ODU, -UTSA
SBC: +WKU, +MTSU, +FAU, -CCU, -Georgia Southern, -App State

MWC: -SJSU, -USU
WAC: +NMSU, +Idaho, +SJSU, +USU, +UTSA

Interesting that Texas State was added by the Sun Belt before Georgia Southern and App State, but that move probably doesn’t happen with FAU, WKU, and MTSU in the Belt (not to mention incoming Georgia State). In the worst case the WAC forms an Eastern Division with Charlotte, Old Dominion, and two of Georgia Southern/App State/Texas State.

(01-22-2018 10:22 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 09:27 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:46 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:35 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Looking back I'm really shocked that when the WAC essentially did an open casting call for anyone West of the Mississippi interested in FBS football UTSA and Texas St was all they could muster. It would have probably taken at least 5 more to ultimately save WAC football.

What really did the WAC in was the requirement for 12 teams to have a championship game. Had the Mountain West held at 10, this looks like a very different group to rebuild from:

Utah State
Idaho
San Jose State
New Mexico State

That’s to say nothing of Texas State and UTSA staying put in the WAC thanks to C-USA adding UTSA and WKU.

Great point. If the "Big 12" rule been in place my guess is that C-USA would have about 10 members which means probably 4 schools currently in C-USA or SBC would not be in either league. Coastal Carolina is a given. It also probably means App St and Georgia Southern stay in FCS too.

If the American had the option to play a conference title with 10 schools Tulsa and either ECU or Tulane also find them back in C-USA.

UTSA probably still ends up moving out of the WAC but maybe they hang onto Texas St and non-FB UTA.

If you go by the last moves announced:

American: -Tulsa, -East Carolina (originally announced as football only to the hen-Big East)
CUSA: +Tulsa, +East Carolina, -WKU, -MTSU, -FAU, -Charlotte, -ODU, -UTSA
SBC: +WKU, +MTSU, +FAU, -CCU, -Georgia Southern, -App State

MWC: -SJSU, -USU
WAC: +NMSU, +Idaho, +SJSU, +USU, +UTSA

Interesting that Texas State was added by the Sun Belt before Georgia Southern and App State, but that move probably doesn’t happen with FAU, WKU, and MTSU in the Belt (not to mention incoming Georgia State). In the worst case the WAC forms an Eastern Division with Charlotte, Old Dominion, and two of Georgia Southern/App State/Texas State.

Here's my take on an earlier CCG deregulation, slightly modified from another thread:

Suppose that a more forward-thinking Big 12 had been able to convince the NCAA to drop the 12-school minimum for a conference championship in late 2011, by which point the conference had settled on 10 schools. I imagine that one major consequence of this is that the non-power conferences wouldn't have been so keen on reaching 12. While the P5 would likely have proceeded with expansion as in our timeline, I would guess that 8 or 10 football schools would probably be the target for rest of the conferences. This means that the WAC could possibly have survived as a football conference, although only barely. A potential G6 alignment by 2018:

American: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy (FB only), SMU, Temple, Tulane, UCF, UConn, USF

C-USA: Charlotte, ECU, FIU, Marshall, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP

MWC: Air Force, Boise, CSU, Fresno, Hawaii (FB only), Nevada, New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Arkansas State, FAU, MTSU, South Alabama, Troy, ULL, ULM, WKU (+ non-FB UALR)

WAC: Idaho, La Tech, NMSU, SJSU, Texas State, Utah State, UTSA, [another FB school] (+ non-FB Denver, Seattle, UTA)

The MAC is the same as in our timeline.

Basically, the old Big East/American declines to invite ECU and Tulsa. So those two stick with C-USA, who in turn isn't as inclined to overexpand and so only takes FIU and North Texas from the Sun Belt and Charlotte from the A-10. The Sun Belt restocks to the 8-school football minimum when USA adds the sport. The MWC doesn't pick off SJSU or USU from the WAC. This leaves the WAC with just 7 football schools after adding Texas State and UTSA, so perhaps they'd add another FCS team to make eight. The MAC's 12 full members had all been in the conference since before the turn of the century. UMass had already been set as of April 2011 to join as a football affiliate, but they part ways with the MAC in just a few years as in our timeline. ODU, App State, GA Southern, GSU, and CCU remain in the FCS without an FBS conference invite.

(01-22-2018 10:46 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 10:22 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 09:27 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:46 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:35 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  What really did the WAC in was the requirement for 12 teams to have a championship game. Had the Mountain West held at 10, this looks like a very different group to rebuild from:

Utah State
Idaho
San Jose State
New Mexico State

That’s to say nothing of Texas State and UTSA staying put in the WAC thanks to C-USA adding UTSA and WKU.

Great point. If the "Big 12" rule been in place my guess is that C-USA would have about 10 members which means probably 4 schools currently in C-USA or SBC would not be in either league. Coastal Carolina is a given. It also probably means App St and Georgia Southern stay in FCS too.

If the American had the option to play a conference title with 10 schools Tulsa and either ECU or Tulane also find them back in C-USA.

UTSA probably still ends up moving out of the WAC but maybe they hang onto Texas St and non-FB UTA.

If you go by the last moves announced:

American: -Tulsa, -East Carolina (originally announced as football only to the hen-Big East)
CUSA: +Tulsa, +East Carolina, -WKU, -MTSU, -FAU, -Charlotte, -ODU, -UTSA
SBC: +WKU, +MTSU, +FAU, -CCU, -Georgia Southern, -App State

MWC: -SJSU, -USU
WAC: +NMSU, +Idaho, +SJSU, +USU, +UTSA

Interesting that Texas State was added by the Sun Belt before Georgia Southern and App State, but that move probably doesn’t happen with FAU, WKU, and MTSU in the Belt (not to mention incoming Georgia State). In the worst case the WAC forms an Eastern Division with Charlotte, Old Dominion, and two of Georgia Southern/App State/Texas State.

Here's my take on an earlier CCG deregulation, slightly modified from another thread:

Suppose that a more forward-thinking Big 12 had been able to convince the NCAA to drop the 12-school minimum for a conference championship in late 2011, by which point the conference had settled on 10 schools. I imagine that one major consequence of this is that the non-power conferences wouldn't have been so keen on reaching 12. While the P5 would likely have proceeded with expansion as in our timeline, I would guess that 8 or 10 football schools would probably be the target for rest of the conferences. This means that the WAC could possibly have survived as a football conference, although only barely. A potential G6 alignment by 2018:

American: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy (FB only), SMU, Temple, Tulane, UCF, UConn, USF

C-USA: Charlotte, ECU, FIU, Marshall, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP

MWC: Air Force, Boise, CSU, Fresno, Hawaii (FB only), Nevada, New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Arkansas State, FAU, MTSU, South Alabama, Troy, ULL, ULM, WKU (+ non-FB UALR)

WAC: Idaho, La Tech, NMSU, SJSU, Texas State, Utah State, UTSA, [another FB school] (+ non-FB Denver, Seattle, UTA)

The MAC is the same as in our timeline.

Basically, the old Big East/American declines to invite ECU and Tulsa. So those two stick with C-USA, who in turn isn't as inclined to overexpand and so only takes FIU and North Texas from the Sun Belt and Charlotte from the A-10. The Sun Belt restocks to the 8-school football minimum when USA adds the sport. The MWC doesn't pick off SJSU or USU from the WAC. This leaves the WAC with just 7 football schools after adding Texas State and UTSA, so perhaps they'd add another FCS team to make eight. The MAC's 12 full members had all been in the conference since before the turn of the century. UMass had already been set as of April 2011 to join as a football affiliate, but they part ways with the MAC in just a few years as in our timeline. ODU, App State, GA Southern, GSU, and CCU remain in the FCS without an FBS conference invite.

American: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy (FB only), SMU, Temple, Tulane, UCF, UConn, USF

C-USA: Charlotte, ECU, FIU, FAU, Marshall, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UAB, UNT

MWC: Air Force, Boise, CSU, Fresno, UTEP, Nevada, New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Arkansas State, App State, Ga So, ODU, MTSU, South Alabama, Troy, ULL, ULM, WKU (+ non-FB UALR)

WAC: Hawaii, Idaho, La Tech, NMSU, SJSU, Texas State, Utah State, UTSA (+ non-FB Denver, Seattle, UTA).

Hawaii doesn’t have to leave the WAC and can still put its Olympic sports in the Big West if it wants. When UAB drops football CUSA adds ODU to remain at 10 football teams. Sun Belt adds Ga State or Coastal to replace ODU. If UAB revives football and is allowed to stay in CUSA, CUSA takes UMass all sports and goes to 12. If UAB is booted from CUSA for dropping football initially they join Sun Belt and when they revive football whichever of Ga State or Coastal that didn’t initially get in is added and they go to 12.