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If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 08:41 PM
Hypothetical but if all FBS conferences moved to 16 through expansion where would everyone end up going and how would that affect the P5/G5 structure?
Px1 (B1G to 16)-16 teams
Px2 (SEC to 16)-32 teams
Px3 (PAC to 16)-48 teams
Px4 (ACC to 16)-64 teams
Px5 (B12 to 16)-80 teams
Px6 (MWC/CUSA to 16)-96 teams
Px7 (AAC/CUSA/MAC to 16)-112 teams
Px8 (MAC/CUSA/SBC to 16)-128 teams
Could there be a big inflation in the number of P5 programs that could lead the G5 Condensing down to 2 or 3 large conferences for CFP contract bowls?
The "P" could go to 18-20 teams to make the effect more dramatic.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 08:45 PM
G programs should do everything to scratch and claw to get into a P conference.
If the program is stuck in a G situation it doesn't like (aka Southern Miss) in CUSA don't worry about the AAC when there could be a big reorganization for the next round of CFP contracts.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - DavidSt - 11-12-2017 08:48 PM
Why not 18 to 20 reams? You do have some good fresh blood to infuse into the conferences to make it work. As is, many schools including P5 schools have lost fans in the seats. It seems that they play the exact same teams over and over again. Some of the strongest FCS schools might help draw some interests. Eastern Washington and North Dakota State have drawn people to watch them play against P5 schools. They do have a buzz that do bring out fans, plus those fans do travel. Many NDSU fans filled the Kansas State stadium. The fans of both teams watched a great game. It is better than some of the cupcakes like Kansas.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 09:00 PM
(11-12-2017 08:48 PM)DavidSt Wrote: Why not 18 to 20 reams? You do have some good fresh blood to infuse into the conferences to make it work. As is, many schools including P5 schools have lost fans in the seats. It seems that they play the exact same teams over and over again. Some of the strongest FCS schools might help draw some interests. Eastern Washington and North Dakota State have drawn people to watch them play against P5 schools. They do have a buzz that do bring out fans, plus those fans do travel. Many NDSU fans filled the Kansas State stadium. The fans of both teams watched a great game. It is better than some of the cupcakes like Kansas.
If its 18/20 teams by the time B12 is done picking 90-100 programs will be in a P5. That won't leave much of the MWC or AAC who could scoop up the remaining value from CUSA/MAC/SBC.
Someday NIU/Toledo/Ohio may be forced into the AAC whether they like it or not so the AAC has enough schools for a contract bowl.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - DavidSt - 11-12-2017 09:06 PM
(11-12-2017 09:00 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:(11-12-2017 08:48 PM)DavidSt Wrote: Why not 18 to 20 reams? You do have some good fresh blood to infuse into the conferences to make it work. As is, many schools including P5 schools have lost fans in the seats. It seems that they play the exact same teams over and over again. Some of the strongest FCS schools might help draw some interests. Eastern Washington and North Dakota State have drawn people to watch them play against P5 schools. They do have a buzz that do bring out fans, plus those fans do travel. Many NDSU fans filled the Kansas State stadium. The fans of both teams watched a great game. It is better than some of the cupcakes like Kansas.
If its 18/20 teams by the time B12 is done picking 90-100 programs will be in a P5. That won't leave much of the MWC or AAC who could scoop up the remaining value from CUSA/MAC/SBC.
Someday NIU/Toledo/Ohio may be forced into the AAC whether they like it or not so the AAC has enough schools for a contract bowl.
What I meant was that Eastern Washington and North Dakota State fans do travel to the away games. They do show better support than some of the MAC and schools like San Jose State and New Mexico State. I do see those strong teams get pick first before some of the C-USA, MWC, MAC and SBC schools.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 09:23 PM
(11-12-2017 09:06 PM)DavidSt Wrote:(11-12-2017 09:00 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:(11-12-2017 08:48 PM)DavidSt Wrote: Why not 18 to 20 reams? You do have some good fresh blood to infuse into the conferences to make it work. As is, many schools including P5 schools have lost fans in the seats. It seems that they play the exact same teams over and over again. Some of the strongest FCS schools might help draw some interests. Eastern Washington and North Dakota State have drawn people to watch them play against P5 schools. They do have a buzz that do bring out fans, plus those fans do travel. Many NDSU fans filled the Kansas State stadium. The fans of both teams watched a great game. It is better than some of the cupcakes like Kansas.
If its 18/20 teams by the time B12 is done picking 90-100 programs will be in a P5. That won't leave much of the MWC or AAC who could scoop up the remaining value from CUSA/MAC/SBC.
Someday NIU/Toledo/Ohio may be forced into the AAC whether they like it or not so the AAC has enough schools for a contract bowl.
What I meant was that Eastern Washington and North Dakota State fans do travel to the away games. They do show better support than some of the MAC and schools like San Jose State and New Mexico State. I do see those strong teams get pick first before some of the C-USA, MWC, MAC and SBC schools.
No I don't think you'll see FCS schools jumping FBS in the pecking order.
I see the possible emergence of an 8 conference system with the MWC/AAC/MAC nixing the G5 agreement as they become "contract" conferences themselves. An emergence which might happen in the aftermath of more realignment.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - DavidSt - 11-12-2017 09:28 PM
But, what do we do with teams that wants to move up to be part of the system? I do not see C-USA schools moving to the MWC since so many are too far away. MWC would backload with Big Sky, and western MVFC first, and UTEP and UTSA as well.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - RutgersGuy - 11-12-2017 09:40 PM
Go to 20!!!!
13 regular season games, 10 conference games. 4 in division a H & A vs 2 schools from each other division. P schools can't play FCS schools and G schools are allowed to play 1 a season.
Playoffs are the four winners of the conference playoffs playing in a four team playoff.
B1G:
East- PSU, Rutgers, Maryland, UConn, Virginia
West- Texas, OU, KU, Nebraska, Iowa
South- Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Notre Dame, Ohio State
North- Minny, Wisc, NW, Michigan, MSU
SEC:
East- UF, FSU, UGA, USC, UNC
West- A&M, TCU, Arkansas, OSU, Mizzou
South- Bama, Auburn, Miss St, Ole Miss, LSU
North- WVU, Tennessee, Vandy, UK, VT
Pac-20:
East- Colorado, KSU, ISU, Utah, BYU
West- Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Hawaii
South- ASU, UA, T Tech, Houston, UNLV
North- Oregon, OSU, Washington, WSU, Boise St.
ACC:
East- NC St, Duke, WF, ECU, Navy
West- Louisville, Cincy, Memphis, Baylor, SMU
South- Miami, GT, Clemson, UCF, USF
North- BC, Pitt, Cuse, Temple, Army
AAC:
East- James Madison, ODU, Richmond, Charolette, App State
West- Tulsa, UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Texas State
South- Tulane, USM, UAB, FIU, FAU
North- Marshall, WKU, Middle Tenn, Missouri St, Chattanooga
MWC:
East- Air Force, Wyoming, Utah State, Weber St, Colorado St
West- San Diego St, Fresno, San Jose, Cal Poly, San Diego
South- New Mexico, New Mexico St, UTEP, Northern Arizona, Nevada
North- Idaho, Eastern Washington, Montana, Portland, Montana St
CUSA:
East- Wofford, William & Mary, Liberty, Coastal Carolina, Eastern Kentucky
West- Troy, So. Alabama, Jacksonville St, Louisiana Monroe, Louisiana Lafayette
South- Georgia St, Georgia Southern, Citadel, Western Carolina, Charleston Southern
North- Arkansas State, Central Arkansas, La Tech, Sam Houston, Stephen F Austin
MAC:
East- Buffalo, UMass, Delaware, New Hampshire, Maine
West- South Dakota State, North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, N. Illinois, Ball State
South- Youngstown, Kent, Miami, Ohio, Akron
North- CMU, WMU, EMU, Toledo, Bowling Green
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 09:48 PM
(11-12-2017 09:28 PM)DavidSt Wrote: But, what do we do with teams that wants to move up to be part of the system? I do not see C-USA schools moving to the MWC since so many are too far away. MWC would backload with Big Sky, and western MVFC first, and UTEP and UTSA as well.
They could still move up but be part of the mid major FBS that would include some of the current SBC, CUSA, NMSU, Liberty, UMass without a national TV deal.
To nix the G5 deal it would require a 3-2 vote. AAC/MWC could court the MAC for a 3rd vote with the MAC working out a package with Marshall/Army so they can be considered contract worthy.
AAC-40 million from the CFP
MWC-35 million from the CFP
MAC-30 million from the CFP
Something like this where they get floater spots but for a smaller share of money. The MAC pulled in almost 25 million last year with the G5 autobid.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - DavidSt - 11-12-2017 09:49 PM
Replace San Diego with either Sacramento State or UC-Davis. San Diego do not offer scholarships.
I would replace Richmond with Stony Brook. Stony wants FBS.
Lamar wants FBS as well.
I could see UTRGV, North Florida and FGCU go to FBS in the future. North Florida could play in the pro stadium that the Jaguars plays in.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Nerdlinger - 11-12-2017 09:56 PM
The P4 here is already on pretty shaky ground when it comes to plausibility, and the G4 is significantly more shaky, but here's an 8x16 future scenario:
ACC
East: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Florida State, Miami-FL, Virginia, Virginia Tech
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville
Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
South: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Pac-16
East: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
North: Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
American
East: Army*, Connecticut, Navy*, Temple
North: Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Tulane
West: Baylor, BYU*, Rice, SMU
MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts*
North: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan
South: Ball State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Bowling Green, Miami-OH, Ohio, Toledo
MWC
East: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Wyoming
North: Boise State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State
South: North Texas, Texas State, UTEP, UTSA
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, San Diego State, San Jose State
Sun Belt
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
North: Appalachian State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion
South: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy, UAB
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 10:09 PM
B12 Carve Up Scenario
B1G (Kansas, Oklahoma)
PAC (Texas, Texas Tech)
B12 (BYU, Colorado St, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn)
AAC (Rice, So Miss, ODU, WKU, Dayton, St. Louis)
MWC (UTEP)
MAC (Marshall, Army)
It is easy to see from here that the AAC would no longer be heads and shoulders above the MWC and MAC in football, nor on by themselves worthy of a contract bowl.
Likewise it wouldn't make sense for MWC or even MAC schools to backfill a diluted AAC. It only makes sense for CUSA and A10 schools to do it that are stuck in conferences with no prospects. If Marshall can't get into the AAC going back to the MAC makes a lot of sense where it can save on travel.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 10:32 PM
(11-12-2017 09:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: The P4 here is already on pretty shaky ground when it comes to plausibility, and the G4 is significantly more shaky, but here's an 8x16 future scenario:
ACC
East: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Florida State, Miami-FL, Virginia, Virginia Tech
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville
Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
South: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Pac-16
East: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
North: Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
American
East: Army*, Connecticut, Navy*, Temple
North: Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Tulane
West: Baylor, BYU*, Rice, SMU
MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts*
North: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan
South: Ball State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Bowling Green, Miami-OH, Ohio, Toledo
MWC
East: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Wyoming
North: Boise State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State
South: North Texas, Texas State, UTEP, UTSA
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, San Diego State, San Jose State
Sun Belt
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
North: Appalachian State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion
South: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy, UAB
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe
8 FBS conferences. How many then are contract conferences?
Do you give contracts to all 8 conferences but far less money to the AAC, MAC, MWC, SBC as part of the deal? That is one way to handle it.
I'd say the B12 would likely stay in business because they can pull programs in from both the MWC/AAC to be part of an Iowa St, K-State core.
PAC/SEC/B1G/ACC to 16 for the most massive TV contracts possible.
B12 to 12 to conserve value and a contract with the Cotton Bowl.
What is left of the AAC at that point? Tulsa, Tulane, Navy, Temple? There would be no TV deal for the AAC.
If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Jjoey52 - 11-12-2017 10:48 PM
Don’t think they will go beyond 14, it is too cumbersome and too many mouths to feed. Back in the day the WAC went to 16 and it was a disaster.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - MWC Tex - 11-12-2017 10:55 PM
(11-12-2017 10:48 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote: Don’t think they will go beyond 14, it is too cumbersome and too many mouths to feed. Back in the day the WAC went to 16 and it was a disaster.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk8
I think it was only a disaster in that they couldn't get to 2 nice divisions. In addition to a TV contract,
Maybe in this era, it will work. But somebody will need to make the first move.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - MWC Tex - 11-12-2017 11:12 PM
Interesting opinion Kittonhead. We may get there eventually and we were pretty close in the last go round. With TV and digital options more prevalent, it may be feasable for conferences to consolidate. If each conference gets a contact bowl, it will be a big push towards that possibility.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 11:23 PM
AAC collapse scenario...
1) PAC adds Texas/Texas Tech. B12 responds with BYU, Col St, Houston and Cincinnati. MWC adds Rice from CUSA. AAC does nothing and sits at 10.
A year later goes by....
2) SEC adds Florida St and Clemson to to to 16. ACC gets scared and decides to go to 16 with UCF, USF, UConn and Navy FB Only. AAC is now down to 6 programs and can't pull in any MWC or MAC schools.
3) B1G not to be outdone expands with Kansas and Oklahoma. B12 then takes Memphis and SMU from the AAC.
Temple, ECU, Tulane, Wichita St and Tulsa aren't enough to keep a conference going.
MAC (Temple, Army)-FB only
CUSA (Tulane, ECU)
MWC (Tulsa, UNT)
A10 (Wichita)
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - Kittonhead - 11-12-2017 11:33 PM
(11-12-2017 11:12 PM)MWC Tex Wrote: Interesting opinion Kittonhead. We may get there eventually and we were pretty close in the last go round. With TV and digital options more prevalent, it may be feasable for conferences to consolidate. If each conference gets a contact bowl, it will be a big push towards that possibility.
There are a lot of different ways it could happen.
The executives tell the MWC and AAC both if you can get to 16 we'll give you contracts in the Sun (MWC) and Gator (AAC).
The MWC gets there with the 4 Texas CUSA schools.
The AAC takes a basketball approach with WKU/ODU from CUSA and Ohio/Buffalo from the MAC.
That would leave the MAC and SBC with 10 FB playing schools. CUSA would have 8 but could add NMSU/UMass FB only. Those 3 conferences then continue on with a G3 deal for their highest rated champion.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - msm96wolf - 11-13-2017 09:45 AM
Guys, playoffs are not going to be determined by the NCAA or confernce champs. As long as the CFP exist, it will always avoid Conference Champs for the top 8 teams. Odds are confereces will remain the same but go down to a Power 4.
m
ACC - Prediction ND & TCU (Baylor if ND stays indy)
Most complicated. If ND joins, Swofford makes a play for Texas to complete his dream, ND will want Navy (FO). ND stays Indy, my preference would TCU and WVU. WVU needs to be with Pitt, Va tech and Syr. Baylor as the back up to have two Texas teams instead of WVU (I know, but if PSU can recover from Sandusky, anything is possible to recover from)
P12 - Texas, TT, OU, OSU
B10 - Kansas and ISU
SEC Kstate and WVU
B12 Desolves by vote. If three teams remain, look for look for B12 to go after best G5 and Indy.
CSU - WVU
Boise - Memphis
Baylor - UCF
Kstate - USF
SDSU - Houston
AF - Navy
CSU - SMU
AAC AND MWC back fill from top CUSA, MAC and SB teams
I think MAC, CUSA, and SB backfill with Indys and FCS programs like JMU and other top FCS programs. Keeping the then number to 10 or 12 teams per conference.
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16 - TexanMark - 11-13-2017 09:56 AM
(11-12-2017 10:55 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:(11-12-2017 10:48 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote: Don’t think they will go beyond 14, it is too cumbersome and too many mouths to feed. Back in the day the WAC went to 16 and it was a disaster.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk8
I think it was only a disaster in that they couldn't get to 2 nice divisions. In addition to a TV contract,
Maybe in this era, it will work. But somebody will need to make the first move.
Yup...gotta allow pods to go 15+ teams IMHO. 14 teams is really pushing it.